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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 598360 times)
bikefront
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January 30, 2019, 03:42:17 PM
 #4861

Ow. See, that's the reason why I'm wary of crude. Big green candle got me out.

Is there a complete record of Armstrong's trading?
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Lateralus
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January 30, 2019, 04:19:07 PM
 #4862

I can't believe people can be so dumb not only to keep following this dirty charlatan but also paying him for his useless reports, conferences, subscriptions, etc.

After all what do you call an idiot who:
- keeps listening to a convicted felon who stole hundreds of millions of investor's money
- takes market recommendations from a disastrous trader who wasted billions of client's funds on bad trades
- worships an uneducated charlatan for his self-proclaimed knowledge on economics and history
- buys a subscription service allegedly based on AI and super computer that does not even exist?

He's been in this "sell crap" business for decades and still broke as hell much like his devoted followers. He has no offices, no employees, it's just a Wizard-of-Ozz one-man show. If he was at least 1% good as he claims he is, he would have been so rich so he wouldn't have to sell $5 subscriptions to housewives, students and unemployed. The only  reason he is selling you all that bs is that he is a total and complete failure both in forecasting and trading. His disastrous trading record is public and officially verified and his forecast record is even worse.  When will you idiots finally learn?



We're all so grateful you're here to save us from our ignorance.
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January 30, 2019, 07:59:03 PM
 #4863

Possible short against the weekly bullish in play right now
bikefront
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January 30, 2019, 08:22:56 PM
 #4864

A mere ten cents off the high so far. Now is the time to get in if you want to try trading this one
bikefront
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January 31, 2019, 12:40:24 AM
 #4865

New Private Blog post up but showing some kind of error. Can anyone see it?
Kiwibird
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January 31, 2019, 02:36:57 AM
 #4866

The Fed has been effectively raising rates gradually for the last 10 years. The cheering by the pundits claiming the Fed has yielded to the stock market only demonstrates their inability to ever be an international hedge fund manager for they are obviously clueless. I have explained the trend in detail on the general public blog. However, I do not post reversals of arrays there for obvious reasons.

We can see that 2018 was a Directional Change so a pull-back into 2019 was reasonable given this is now the final leg down of the ECM which bottoms in January 2020. Note that 2019 is the turning point and then we have another Directional Change in 2020 with a Panic Cycle in 2021. Volatility will rise from 2021 into 2023. It appears that rates will be rising after 2020 moving into 2023. While this will also be a commodity cycle, that is not the real cause of the rate rise we see on the horizon.
Rates will rise as more and more governments start to become obvious that there is a debt crisis brewing. With the rest of the world imploding, even China, rates will rise as a factor of a decline in public confidence. We still have 2021 showing as the beginning of the Monetary Crisis. There remains the risk of the Euro moving into crisis and this will result in rates rising. The ECM cannot stop Quantitative Easing no matter what they say.
Technically, the resistance stands at 2.67% on the Discount Rate at the Fed. So we have not broken out just yet. However, we did close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 2.25% settling at 2.5%. Therefore, we should fall back to retest support going into 2019 and then the breakout appears to be aligned with the ECM.
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January 31, 2019, 03:40:10 AM
 #4867

I see, thank you.
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January 31, 2019, 02:49:52 PM
 #4868

maybe the panic cycle is still in play up here at recent highs...  initial reaction to fed is big rally..  but maybe by tomorrow panic cycle takes us back down to start the new month..
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January 31, 2019, 03:29:28 PM
 #4869

A panic cycle did not play out this week yet, did it?
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January 31, 2019, 03:47:02 PM
 #4870

I opened a short just now. The 2700 level is a big barrier imo
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January 31, 2019, 03:51:04 PM
 #4871

So guys, how is your trade with spx put options going? Keep listening to Marti the Charlatan.
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January 31, 2019, 03:52:59 PM
 #4872

Lol Armstrong called the high for the Dow at 25100, NOT the SPX. He is right so far!
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January 31, 2019, 05:09:14 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2)
 #4873

The Fed has been effectively raising rates gradually for the last 10 years. The cheering by the pundits claiming the Fed has yielded to the stock market only demonstrates their inability to ever be an international hedge fund manager for they are obviously clueless. I have explained the trend in detail on the general public blog. However, I do not post reversals of arrays there for obvious reasons.

We can see that 2018 was a Directional Change so a pull-back into 2019 was reasonable given this is now the final leg down of the ECM which bottoms in January 2020. Note that 2019 is the turning point and then we have another Directional Change in 2020 with a Panic Cycle in 2021. Volatility will rise from 2021 into 2023. It appears that rates will be rising after 2020 moving into 2023. While this will also be a commodity cycle, that is not the real cause of the rate rise we see on the horizon.
Rates will rise as more and more governments start to become obvious that there is a debt crisis brewing. With the rest of the world imploding, even China, rates will rise as a factor of a decline in public confidence. We still have 2021 showing as the beginning of the Monetary Crisis. There remains the risk of the Euro moving into crisis and this will result in rates rising. The ECM cannot stop Quantitative Easing no matter what they say.
Technically, the resistance stands at 2.67% on the Discount Rate at the Fed. So we have not broken out just yet. However, we did close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 2.25% settling at 2.5%. Therefore, we should fall back to retest support going into 2019 and then the breakout appears to be aligned with the ECM.


Like always, Armstrong doesn't tell you whether stocks will be higher or lower.  The first sentence is HINDSIGHT on 2018.  So that's meaningless.  As far as I can tell, Armstrong is saying stocks will retest low in 2019, and "possibly" going higher towards 2023.  Because Armstrong likes to use all these terms to place bets on both sides, you canNOT say for sure whether it will be higher or lower.
"Volatility" will rise from 2021 into 2023.  Usually volatility means breaking low, but we all know that it also means breaking high.  Given that he said that it's a commodity "cycle", you would think that it's going higher, BUT cycle doesn't mean going higher by itself.
Then Directional Change in 2020.  That again usually for most English speakers, that should literally mean changing in direction, BUT NOT for Armstrong.  Because his cycles CAN have inversion, and he NEVER tells you whether the cycle is inverting until closer to the END of the cycle.  Well, duh, by that time, I can see that TOO.

And since 2021 is a PANIC cycle, one of his favorite word that place bets on BOTH sides, it does NOT tell you whether it's panic UP, or panic DOWN.  Supposedly, it's an OUTSIDE year, breaking both high/low.  Again, usually PANIC is to the down side, but that is NOT always the case.  But since 2020 was a DIRECTION CHANGE, I would think that after PANIC, it "should be" going up, especially given what Armstrong said at the very end "breakout appears to be aligned with ECM".


I have read Armstrong for almost 2 decades now, and that is just typical of Armstrong.  First, he "reviews" on the part that he seemed to get it right (dismissing all of the missed calls).  Then, everything from him will be kind of clear, kind of cryptic, kind of okay, but really, if things don't go according to him, his "forecast" will continue to morph, according to recently broken supports or resistances, and then he morphs on whatever he has said.  BUT by the time, you or I would have forgot about what he said exactly way back then.  Since he always will track the market trends, you will always feel that yes, he is kind of right, while in the meantime, you forget about everything that he didn't get it correct.

You know, stocks already went up almost 18% from the recent low, and I don't need ANYONE to tell me that stocks won't go straight up forever.  Of course, it's going to pull back in whatever fashion.  But see what Armstrong is doing.  He just puts words on the pullback kind of continuously.  If it's not this week, it's next week, and then next week, etc.  Until he gets it right.  Essentially, just bet on the higher probability event continuously (whether it's earthquake, or stock corrections).  Then eventually, you will get it right.  HOW ABOUT call out the lowest/highest week or day for year 2019 RIGHT NOW??  Well, guess what, Armstrong will NEVER do that, BUT he is the FORECASTER with super AI-computer.

The problem is that actual trades are entirely different from words.  If stocks go up by another 5% before it pulls back by 10%, your shorts could have been stopped out with 5% loss, while you could have gained 5% instead.  But in terms of words, oh yeah, I can tell you now that Armstrong will "get it right" again and again.

So the only way to test whether Armstrong reports have any monetary values is to systematically track and phantom trade his calls on paper using a systematic method converting his words to trades.  If there are profits, it's good.  If there are no profits, then it's bad.  However, based on my personal experiences, at the time of highest volatility, at the low/high, Armstrong tends to come out and say that "see I told you so, and I was right".  And then you will tend to think "Darn, I have mis-interpreted his arrays & words, and darn, he is right."  Then you sell/buy in the panic.  And the next thing you know is that you just sold right at the bottom, or bought right at the peak.  And Armstrong was actually just "swimming (in words) along with the market" and blogs sensationally for more readership.

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January 31, 2019, 05:57:37 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)
 #4874

hi, i found this forum after looking for people out there that follow armstrong. Ive been reading his material for a couple years and recently upgraded to pro. Kind of frustrated because I am in a short position since I was expecting last week to be the directional change (per the arrays) and this week and next week would be down weeks. Lo and behold this week is spiking up in the dow and im sitting here trying to figure out where i went wrong? Do y'all see it turning around? The GMW on a daily level went from "KNEE JERK HIGH" yesterday to "BREAKOUT TO UPSIDE" today? wtf? I thought he said the market was hitting its peak two weeks ago???
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January 31, 2019, 06:25:36 PM
 #4875


Like always, Armstrong doesn't tell you whether stocks will be higher or lower.  The first sentence is HINDSIGHT on 2018.  So that's meaningless.  As far as I can tell, Armstrong is saying stocks will retest low in 2019, and "possibly" going higher towards 2023.  Because Armstrong likes to use all these terms to place bets on both sides, you canNOT say for sure whether it will be higher or lower.
"Volatility" will rise from 2021 into 2023.  Usually volatility means breaking low, but we all know that it also means breaking high.  Given that he said that it's a commodity "cycle", you would think that it's going higher, BUT cycle doesn't mean going higher by itself.
Then Directional Change in 2020.  That again usually for most English speakers, that should literally mean changing in direction, BUT NOT for Armstrong.  Because his cycles CAN have inversion, and he NEVER tells you whether the cycle is inverting until closer to the END of the cycle.  Well, duh, by that time, I can see that TOO.

And since 2021 is a PANIC cycle, one of his favorite word that place bets on BOTH sides, it does NOT tell you whether it's panic UP, or panic DOWN.  Supposedly, it's an OUTSIDE year, breaking both high/low.  Again, usually PANIC is to the down side, but that is NOT always the case.  But since 2020 was a DIRECTION CHANGE, I would think that after PANIC, it "should be" going up, especially given what Armstrong said at the very end "breakout appears to be aligned with ECM".


I have read Armstrong for almost 2 decades now, and that is just typical of Armstrong.  First, he "reviews" on the part that he seemed to get it right (dismissing all of the missed calls).  Then, everything from him will be kind of clear, kind of cryptic, kind of okay, but really, if things don't go according to him, his "forecast" will continue to morph, according to recently broken supports or resistances, and then he morphs on whatever he has said.  BUT by the time, you or I would have forgot about what he said exactly way back then.  Since he always will track the market trends, you will always feel that yes, he is kind of right, while in the meantime, you forget about everything that he didn't get it correct.

You know, stocks already went up almost 18% from the recent low, and I don't need ANYONE to tell me that stocks won't go straight up forever.  Of course, it's going to pull back in whatever fashion.  But see what Armstrong is doing.  He just puts words on the pullback kind of continuously.  If it's not this week, it's next week, and then next week, etc.  Until he gets it right.  Essentially, just bet on the higher probability event continuously (whether it's earthquake, or stock corrections).  Then eventually, you will get it right.  HOW ABOUT call out the lowest/highest week or day for year 2019 RIGHT NOW??  Well, guess what, Armstrong will NEVER do that, BUT he is the FORECASTER with super AI-computer.

The problem is that actual trades are entirely different from words.  If stocks go up by another 5% before it pulls back by 10%, your shorts could have been stopped out with 5% loss, while you could have gained 5% instead.  But in terms of words, oh yeah, I can tell you now that Armstrong will "get it right" again and again.

So the only way to test whether Armstrong reports have any monetary values is to systematically track and phantom trade his calls on paper using a systematic method converting his words to trades.  If there are profits, it's good.  If there are no profits, then it's bad.  However, based on my personal experiences, at the time of highest volatility, at the low/high, Armstrong tends to come out and say that "see I told you so, and I was right".  And then you will tend to think "Darn, I have mis-interpreted his arrays & words, and darn, he is right."  Then you sell/buy in the panic.  And the next thing you know is that you just sold right at the bottom, or bought right at the peak.  And Armstrong was actually just "swimming (in words) along with the market" and blogs sensationally for more readership.


I think you hit the nail on the head.  MA's market commentary is very difficult to trade off of.  I do like his general macro calls though and I use them as a reference when I'm looking at the charts that I'm butchering up. 

I'll try to post a $DIA chart here which I think shows a great example of why we are currently in "no man's land" right now.  I don't know if we'll break down are charge up at this point.  All you can do is wait and watch what the prices do.  (I'm sounding like Marty, aren't I?)  Anyway, I agree with you regarding all of his terminology with obtuse meanings.

https://www.spunj.com/attachments/dia-png.22/
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January 31, 2019, 06:33:31 PM
 #4876

hi, i found this forum after looking for people out there that follow armstrong. Ive been reading his material for a couple years and recently upgraded to pro. Kind of frustrated because I am in a short position since I was expecting last week to be the directional change (per the arrays) and this week and next week would be down weeks. Lo and behold this week is spiking up in the dow and im sitting here trying to figure out where i went wrong? Do y'all see it turning around? The GMW on a daily level went from "KNEE JERK HIGH" yesterday to "BREAKOUT TO UPSIDE" today? wtf? I thought he said the market was hitting its peak two weeks ago???

We feel your pain.  I'd hang on a little bit.  The day is still young and the DJIA has been pretty lackluster this week.  Trying to trade Armstrong's calls on a weekly basis has never worked out for me.  The monthly is okay and it gets better as you hit the quarterly and yearly...but at that point...you really don't have any advantage at all. 

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January 31, 2019, 06:37:56 PM
 #4877

You guys are putting too much focus on the arrays. It is the reversals which are the most powerful trading tool, and the reversals in combination with the arrays.

We have a massive gap in the DOW weekly bullish reversals between 25003 and 25996, tomorrow is the big test of that.

https://i.imgur.com/H3y4hPk.png

I've also been paying attention to the daily reversals, particularly the S&P 500 where we have another big gap. We were way out ahead of the daily bullish reversal earlier today, but we have pulled back. I think if we elect the 2696 daily reversal in the S&P today, it suggests we are likely to also elect the weekly reversal in the DOW tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/AcYboJe.png

I am posting my thoughts daily at reddit.com/r/aec, come join the conversation there.
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January 31, 2019, 06:42:59 PM
Last edit: January 31, 2019, 06:55:58 PM by swiftylul
 #4878

You guys are putting too much focus on the arrays. It is the reversals which are the most powerful trading tool, and the reversals in combination with the arrays.

We have a massive gap in the DOW weekly bullish reversals between 25003 and 25996, tomorrow is the big test of that.

https://i.imgur.com/H3y4hPk.png

I've also been paying attention to the daily reversals, particularly the S&P 500 where we have another big gap. We were way out ahead of the daily bullish reversal earlier today, but we have pulled back. I think if we elect the 2696 daily reversal in the S&P today, it suggests we are likely to also elect the weekly reversal in the DOW tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/AcYboJe.png

I am posting my thoughts daily at reddit.com/r/aec, come join the conversation there.

where on socrates did you get that screenshot with all of the reversals?

[Edit: Figured it out!]
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January 31, 2019, 06:50:17 PM
 #4879

im sitting here trying to figure out where i went wrong?

One possibility to consider:

...follow armstrong.

I don't have a position one way or the other. But perhaps you might want to think about whether or not your trust is misplaced?

Anyone with a campaign ad in their signature -- for an organization with which they are not otherwise affiliated -- is automatically deducted credibility points.

I've been convicted of heresy. Convicted by a mere known extortionist. Read my Trust for details.
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January 31, 2019, 06:59:55 PM
 #4880

im sitting here trying to figure out where i went wrong?

One possibility to consider:

...follow armstrong.

I don't have a position one way or the other. But perhaps you might want to think about whether or not your trust is misplaced?

appreciate the response. I hope i dont sound like im worshipping the guy but any credibility i have in him comes from the times I followed his advice and did well. however, i obviously dont always do "well" and lately ive been kind of questioning things as you can see in my initial post here. with him premiering his new platform, I figured id give it 3 months and then reasses whether or not this is someone i want to be following
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