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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 935267 times)
seleme
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October 31, 2014, 03:30:38 PM
 #2121

To be honest, if it is correlated with something it's USD strength. I wouldn't call correlation with current gold drop because dollar massacred everything recently, not just gold.

I doubled my small forex playing account today trading EUR and yen drop vs dollar. Gold,silver, GBP, CAD, AUD.. everything crashed vs dollar.

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masterluc
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October 31, 2014, 03:51:06 PM
 #2122

Yes, it's dollar - world most valued paper.

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October 31, 2014, 10:32:16 PM
 #2123

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  Roll Eyes

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

No, it wasn't placed after it hit 300 but that wall was actually dump to $300 and seller already sold 3-5k with that dump. Then more sellers and stop losses came and pushed price even lower. That wall managed to reach sub $300 price, becacause above $300 were nice walls before dump. Just saying, maybe everything was manipulation... probably.

I remember the price going down to about $276, then going back up again. It was hours later when the giant wall appeared.
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November 01, 2014, 12:42:34 AM
 #2124

Weaker hands than the guy who sells 30k BTC at the bottom of a downtrend on one exchange via a single ask? I can't even imagine those hands, they must be long dead. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Wouldn't it be something if it was found out to be a self running bot created by someone who died? It would be a dump routine if no input is made, it finds a price and dumps. It might be safer than leaving the account in a will.

anyone think that 30k dump is caused by bitpay ? I guess some guy bought a luxury villa in manhattan  Roll Eyes

No, it was placed immediately after it fell below 300, similar to the manipulation tactics of old. If it was bitpay, it wouldnt have been a round number and it also wouldnt have taken the form of a wall, but rather a massive dump. Are you sure that the bitcoin was converted for the villa?

No, it wasn't placed after it hit 300 but that wall was actually dump to $300 and seller already sold 3-5k with that dump. Then more sellers and stop losses came and pushed price even lower. That wall managed to reach sub $300 price, becacause above $300 were nice walls before dump. Just saying, maybe everything was manipulation... probably.

I remember the price going down to about $276, then going back up again. It was hours later when the giant wall appeared.

No, the 30k+ whale pushed it down below $300 and after few minutes pulled it of $300 and set it to $320. Then he pulled it again and after few hours again dump to $300 where it was eaten in 6 hours.
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November 01, 2014, 01:08:54 AM
 #2125

Yes it was something like that. This shows a rough picture of it, but it misses out the finer details.

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November 01, 2014, 01:06:49 PM
 #2126

Now that the bullish scenario is looking unlikely, I reviewed the bearish one, and it could be more advanced than I thought.
Here is my current most probable scenario, with a bottom between 150$ and 200$, depending on how many whales will panic.


Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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November 01, 2014, 03:47:14 PM
 #2127

What about this?


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..Duelbits..
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  ROULETTE
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██
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.
...Register Now...
boumalo
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November 01, 2014, 05:30:26 PM
 #2128

Now that the bullish scenario is looking unlikely, I reviewed the bearish one, and it could be more advanced than I thought.
Here is my current most probable scenario, with a bottom between 150$ and 200$, depending on how many whales will panic.



Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin

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November 01, 2014, 06:12:18 PM
Last edit: November 01, 2014, 06:24:39 PM by masterluc
 #2129


Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin
It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

They already shared their dotcom and mortage shit along USD holders with QE. Final stage ahead. Our problems = USD holder problems. So one day they'll say - bye bye USD holders, bye bye our problems.

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November 01, 2014, 06:18:19 PM
 #2130


Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin
It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

rofl, truly amazing.



these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.
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November 01, 2014, 06:40:33 PM
 #2131


Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin
It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

rofl, truly amazing.



these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.

Whilst I don't agree with the initial analysis predicting doom and the end of the USD. There is some very selective charting going on from both of you Smiley

People tend to forget that any bonds held by central banks from the QE programs globally don't really add anything to the national debt of the respective countries. They will simply be held until they expire. Of course it is banana republic economics but because it is going on all the Western economies simultaneously it is tolerated without capital flight.

Last time I checked the BOE owned nearly 40% of british bonds (gilts). Cost to the tax payer ? Nothing as the coupon payments are simply given straight back to the treasury. The net effect is simply expansion of narrow money into the wider economy through government spending (above taxation) to try and stoke up inflation whilst maintaining asset prices from collapse.
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November 01, 2014, 07:12:38 PM
 #2132

Speaking of endings sir, when will this bear market end? ;P
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November 01, 2014, 09:02:09 PM
Last edit: November 01, 2014, 10:18:45 PM by mmortal03
 #2133


rofl, truly amazing.



these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.

The following doesn't have the dollar updated for October yet, but the long term dollar trend still looks down to me:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1334/dollar-gold-and-oil-historical-chart
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November 03, 2014, 06:40:35 PM
 #2134

Since some believe that the current market movements are similar to the ones in July 2013, here are 2 charts that show they are not.




Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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November 04, 2014, 12:27:29 AM
 #2135

Speaking of US debt, it's actually well North of $60 Trillion Dollars some studies are saying as high as $70 Trillion Dollars.

The problem is when you look at sources like the US debt clock which stands at around $18 Trillion what you actually see is only the US Governments "reported" debt not the unreported debt. What the reported debt doesn't show you are current government obligations like Medicade, Social Security obligations which by the way is running close to $25 Trillion in debt itself, deposit insurance, loan guarantees to name a few.

If you want to get your head around "Off Balance Sheet Liabilities" here are a few sources to absorb:


Off-Balance-Sheet Federal Liabilities
http://www.nber.org/papers/w19253

US debt six times greater than declared - study
http://rt.com/usa/us-debt-study-hamilton-economy-103/

US debt six times higher than declared
http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/08/07/317608/us-debt-six-times-higher-than-declared/





 
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November 04, 2014, 01:40:39 AM
 #2136


Being bearish at the moment is reasonable if you look at charts and trend lines but the fundamentals are great, the USD will crash soon and there is a Bitcoin fan libertarian that makes a lot of money everyday, he will likely invest a portion of it in Bitcoin
It will crash no doubt. But when - nobody knows. US govs need a way to something to do with unpayable 20 trillion debt. But when they fool everyone nobody knows. So far DXY rises to be believed most valued thing in the world. Then (when everyone ensured USD is GOD) should be a final global fraud to cancel US debt.

rofl, truly amazing.



these guys are so above everything. sometimes i wonder if its a lost fight. the one against reality.

The market is oblivious to the reality at the moment but it will come to an end; negative news oversea, the capital the innovation and the production in the states have bought the USD some time

prophetx
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November 05, 2014, 02:57:02 PM
 #2137

don't ever underestimate the dollar, it is the prima donna of all the fiat coins

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November 05, 2014, 05:49:19 PM
 #2138

Don't fight the FED.

there is an interesting dynamic perhaps at play here

notice that btc is going up at the same time as the USD, this may seem counterintuitive

btc should be falling but now it is rising above the $, perhaps this means that some subset of users see BTC as more favorable than the U$D when getting out of other fiat currencies.



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November 10, 2014, 02:05:45 PM
 #2139

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-10/ukraine-central-bank-bans-bitcoin-protect-citizens-financing-terrorism

 Angry Angry Angry Angry

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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November 10, 2014, 02:10:53 PM
 #2140

I am waiting for Luc to come out of woods and declare that upper daily BB when falling is a very hard resistance.
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