Analysis

[windjc]

There are so many factors to consider in the Bitcoin market, such that trying to apply TA for predictive power is largely useless.

I highly disagree. TA may not be 100% accurate, but it is far from useless. Lucif and his remarkably good calls is living proof of that.
It is essentially the study of crowd psychology applied to a market, and bitcoin users are still human and as such their behavior can be analyzed, patterns discerned and used for probabilistic predictions.

While I appreciate there are more things to consider and that TA will never be a magic crystal ball giving you guaranteed answers, I still believe it is a hell of a lot better than going by gut feeling, which is what the majority of this forum seem to do (and admittedly myself before I found this thread).

How are we doing with those Fib retracement levels on this bull trap?

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong, but I still won't see confirmation of a bull market until we pass ATH. For all I know this could just be an unprecedentedly strong bull-trap, and I prefer not getting trapped, even if it means losing out on some profit.

You mean a triple top?

[1715289350]

1715289350

[1715289350]

1715289350

[1715289350]

1715289350

[1715289350]

1715289350

[JustAnotherSheep]

You mean a triple top?

I guess that would be among the likeliest ways a reversal would play out if the bulltrap scenario is still relevant. Which is why I'm waiting for price to pass that until I go bull again

There's also a double top possibility at this level if it's not broken.

[windjc]

You mean a triple top?

I guess that would be among the likeliest ways a reversal would play out if the bulltrap scenario is still relevant. Which is why I'm waiting for price to pass that until I go bull again

There's also a double top possibility at this level if it's not broken.

You do realize that a triple top is very rare? I wouldn't even call it TA.

[JustAnotherSheep]

You do realize that a triple top is very rare? I wouldn't even call it TA.

Rare but not impossible!

But seriously, no I didn't know that, I'm still a TA noob :=) However I expect major resistance at that point if we even get there, which might be enough to successfully close a potential trap.

[2017orso]

There are so many factors to consider in the Bitcoin market, such that trying to apply TA for predictive power is largely useless.

I highly disagree. TA may not be 100% accurate, but it is far from useless. Lucif and his remarkably good calls is living proof of that.
It is essentially the study of crowd psychology applied to a market, and bitcoin users are still human and as such their behavior can be analyzed, patterns discerned and used for probabilistic predictions.

While I appreciate there are more things to consider and that TA will never be a magic crystal ball giving you guaranteed answers, I still believe it is a hell of a lot better than going by gut feeling, which is what the majority of this forum seem to do (and admittedly myself before I found this thread).

How are we doing with those Fib retracement levels on this bull trap?

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong, but I still won't see confirmation of a bull market until we pass ATH. For all I know this could just be an unprecedentedly strong bull-trap, and I prefer not getting trapped, even if it means losing out on some profit.

Right, I understand TA, and have mentioned what you said a few times already, even in this thread.

What I'm saying is, the crowd psychology presumably measured by TA as applied to Bitcion and referenced in this thread is in fact not considering a sufficient level of psychological crowd factors to render said predictions much greater then chance if at all.

The Lucif-inspired counts you speak of are not as crazy as you think they are.  And definately don't negate what I'm saying.

[samurai1200]

There are so many factors to consider in the Bitcoin market, such that trying to apply TA for predictive power is largely useless.

I highly disagree. TA may not be 100% accurate, but it is far from useless. Lucif and his remarkably good calls is living proof of that.
It is essentially the study of crowd psychology applied to a market, and bitcoin users are still human and as such their behavior can be analyzed, patterns discerned and used for probabilistic predictions.

While I appreciate there are more things to consider and that TA will never be a magic crystal ball giving you guaranteed answers, I still believe it is a hell of a lot better than going by gut feeling, which is what the majority of this forum seem to do (and admittedly myself before I found this thread).

How are we doing with those Fib retracement levels on this bull trap?

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong, but I still won't see confirmation of a bull market until we pass ATH. For all I know this could just be an unprecedentedly strong bull-trap, and I prefer not getting trapped, even if it means losing out on some profit.

Right, I understand TA, and have mentioned what you said a few times already, even in this thread.

What I'm saying is, the crowd psychology presumably measured by TA as applied to Bitcion and referenced in this thread is in fact not considering a sufficient level of psychological crowd factors to render said predictions much greater then chance if at all.

The Lucif-inspired counts you speak of are not as crazy as you think they are.  And definately don't negate what I'm saying.

what is "chance" in this respect? completely random trading? trading unwaveringly along MA crossovers?

[oda.krell]

chance = a million monkeys on a million computers pressing buy or sell at any point in time.  as time interval increases probability of operating better then chance should also.  I posit that this is not the case for most in Bitcoin, unless you follow what has occurred in the past in this thread (up to about a month ago if you haven't noticed), which was manipulation and self-fulfilling prophecy, able to exist and "predict" without any need for lines, though sprinkles do make a cake look better I'll admit.

could go on and elaborate, but the same sheep will likely straw-man what I'm saying yet again, and continue to obey the dark spirit which navigates this thread with manipulative intent and skill.

I'll stick to this and repeat, for newbs:

When Gavin, the lead developer for what may potentially be one of the most destructive, revolutionary, paradigm-shifting man-made developments the human species has ever experienced was asked what he has found most surprising, his reply was, that people will trade anything with a price attached to it.

Now, I'm anxiously awaiting $4, I mean, $2k, as mentioned the night before this recent rally ignition.

Carry on. 

"It was the best of times, it was the...BLURST of times?!?!" - Mr. Burns

Forgot to take your meds again, huh?

[JustAnotherSheep]

Forgot to take your meds again, huh?

He does remind me greatly of a schizoaffective bipolar guy I know lol, so I'm not even going to bother arguing further

OnT: It's starting to look very much like a double top now

[Wekkel]

There is so much good news surrounding Bitcoin, that I give bulls the benefit of the doubt the next few weeks.

[bambou]

There is so much good news surrounding Bitcoin, that I give bulls the benefit of the doubt the next few weeks.

hello, new in town, just read all up and couldn't figure what to think of this correlation between news and BTC price  

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

edit: is there an unanimous conscensus about what is going on right now? i mean, since OP has not returned yet, still bear market bottoming down to 350-400$?
oh and thx for the nice thread

[Satyre_Noir]

There is so much good news surrounding Bitcoin, that I give bulls the benefit of the doubt the next few weeks.

True but I'm worried with new warning from german central bank on bitcoin, where were those pigs and their financial advices in 2007 regarding housing market bubble or facebook scam ipo?

http://www.coindesk.com/german-central-bank-official-issues-another-bitcoin-warning/

[Wekkel]

Its just a warning that no one protects a Bitcoin investor. That is very true.

[MAbtc]

News shmews.

[oda.krell]

Price follows news: wrong.

News follow price: wrong as well.


News+Price=rather complex clusterfuck: true

[bambou]

Price follows news: wrong.

News follow price: wrong as well.


News+Price=rather complex clusterfuck: true

haha works for me   

[segeln]

True but I'm worried with new warning from german central bank on bitcoin, where were those pigs and their financial advices in 2007 regarding housing market bubble or facebook scam ipo?
http://www.coindesk.com/german-central-bank-official-issues-another-bitcoin-warning/

All  these warnings from states central Banks are understandable.

The governments are afraid of their position of their currency controls.BTC is a danger for the whole monetary systems of all countries.

Then:

the governments are obliged to warn and protect the people against risks and any danger.

That said I don`t care about warnings from central Banks.
The only danger for the BTC-World is a regulation by governments or even a shutdown.

[piramida]

The only danger for the BTC-World is a regulation by governments or even a shutdown.

Wrong, the only danger for the BTC is complete destruction of all the internet hardware, aka routers, wires, cables, etc - that would seriously undermine it's ability to function. Governments can't do anything now.

[2017orso]

The donkey and the sheep unable to tune into the obvious hyperbole for entertainment as a layer over completely valid points, surprising...

I'll get out of the way so your master can come back in with his next wishes, oh wait, he's gone until 2016, lol.

masterluc you get credit for not deleting posts, you don't get much credit for manipulating the donkey and the sheep they do that to themselves.

[arepo]

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

edit: is there an unanimous conscensus about what is going on right now? i mean, since OP has not returned yet, still bear market bottoming down to 350-400$?
oh and thx for the nice thread

i am also in this camp. news affects price, but market forces affect price more, and affect price more quantifiably and predictably.

also, unless the bubble paradigm that we've seen so many times over is invalidated this time around, we will definitely not see prices lower than $450, and we will likely not see prices lower than $600.

--arepo

[giletto]

Governments can't do anything now.

May i remember you what was happen in china? Just a government effect...

True, bitcoin can not be destroyed. But its price can be crushed by regulations or ban.

^THIS!