Analysis

[arepo]

Yes, slightly broken. Meaning he could sneeze and the angle of the upper bound could change, making the wedge not broken at all.

Channels are an indication of trend and sentiment, not trading law.

this. in more empirical terms, the price is still within the margin of error of the wedge shape. as i mentioned elsewhere, these shapes are drawn using data sets that often contain outliers so it's tricky drawing conclusions sometimes.

--arepo

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[zby]

Yes, slightly broken. Meaning he could sneeze and the angle of the upper bound could change, making the wedge not broken at all.

Channels are an indication of trend and sentiment, not trading law.

this. in more empirical terms, the price is still within the margin of error of the wedge shape. as i mentioned elsewhere, these shapes are drawn using data sets that often contain outliers so it's tricky drawing conclusions sometimes.

--arepo

I tend to interpret it in terms of probability, or fuzzy logic. Beside the fact that it is a probabilistic process, and that there are many exchanges with slightly different patterns and fuzzy arbitrage opportunities, treating it as binary would also be too easy to manipulate.

[JustAnotherSheep]

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream"

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all ) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

[T.Stuart]

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream"

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all ) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

My speculative analysis - in two days you will be certain that the bulltrap is in fact a big bull market! 

[Ivanhoe]

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream"

Or as we say in Amsterdam: "Don't sell the pelt before you shoot the bear"

A very relevant one haha.

http://nl.wiktionary.org/wiki/de_huid_niet_verkopen_voor_de_beer_geschoten_is

[T.Stuart]

 

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream"

Or as we say in Amsterdam: "Don't sell the pelt before you shoot the bear"

A very relevant one haha.

 

[wobber]

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream"

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all ) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

You mean this:



resembles this?

[T.Stuart]

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream"

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all ) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

You mean this:



resembles this?

But the institutional investors are coming! The public is coming! You've got parts of this notorious chart back to front! Not the right comparison I'm afraid!  

[JustAnotherSheep]

My speculative analysis - in two days you will be certain that the bulltrap is in fact a big bull market!  

I would like nothing more, as then I could buy in again with certainty that my money will grow rather than suddenly pop. Sure, I will have lost some potential profit from selling at 800, but overall I'm doing far better in bull markets where my fiat keeps rising in value, while in bear markets my main goal is increasing my bitcoin holdings by attempting to catch floors.

However, I prefer to rely on TA, no matter how fuzzy and probabilistic it is, rather than optimistic sentiment, especially when dealing with money.

Or as we say in Amsterdam: "Don't sell the pelt before you shoot the bear"

A very relevant one haha.

lmao, brilliant

You mean this:

resembles this?

Na, historically bitcoin doesn't follow that chart completely, as the price has a tendency to reach floor or at least close to it before commencing the major trap rise.

Unless you count 2011

[Dragonkiller]

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream"

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all ) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

You mean this:



resembles this?

The April bubble was just a blip. The institutional investor phase is now. The bigger bubble is yet to come.

[T.Stuart]

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream"

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all ) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

You mean this:



resembles this?

The April bubble was just a blip. The institutional investor phase is now. The bigger bubble is yet to come.

I predict Hodling will all but annihilate the first sell off! 

[Zarathustra]

so are we in the midst of a bear market? long and painful, maybe get us down to the $400's?

we are going much lower than that

You are wrong. We are much higher than that again.

[Zarathustra]

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

Unfortunately you are wrong again. It is bad news for the bearish case.

[arepo]

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

Unfortunately you are wrong again. It is bad news for the bearish case.

that was from forever ago, dude, don't be digging up people's dirt like that.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Now that is what I call an upside breakout

[T.Stuart]

Now that is what I call an upside breakout

It goes to show that you should be very careful trusting an "expert" in a fledgling market like this.

I openly went against a TA professional who said three days ago there was a 1 in 100 chance of us breaking up from around $880.

Imagine how many people listen to that: "1:100 from an expert? No way I'm going against that!"

But his method didn't work because he wasn't factoring in simple stuff that anyone can think about. He was stuck on his "new moons" and wedgies!

[arepo]

Now that is what I call an upside breakout

It goes to show that you should be very careful trusting an "expert" in a fledgling market like this.

I openly went against a TA professional who said three days ago there was a 1 in 100 chance of us breaking up from around $880.

Imagine how many people listen to that: "1:100 from an expert? No way I'm going against that!"

But his method didn't work because he wasn't factoring in simple stuff that anyone can think about. He was stuck on his "new moons" and wedgies!

shut up and due your due diligence. who gives a shit if someone calls themselves a "professional" their work should speak for them. i don't want some random guy's bad predictions affecting your opinion of an entire practice, especially one of which i myself am a practitioner.

--arepo

[T.Stuart]

Now that is what I call an upside breakout

It goes to show that you should be very careful trusting an "expert" in a fledgling market like this.

I openly went against a TA professional who said three days ago there was a 1 in 100 chance of us breaking up from around $880.

Imagine how many people listen to that: "1:100 from an expert? No way I'm going against that!"

But his method didn't work because he wasn't factoring in simple stuff that anyone can think about. He was stuck on his "new moons" and wedgies!

shut up and due your due diligence. who gives a shit if someone calls themselves a "professional" their work should speak for them. i don't want some random guy's bad predictions affecting your opinion of an entire practice, especially one of which i myself am a practitioner.

--arepo

If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?

EDIT: I also said be "very careful" - that does not tarnish your profession. In all my posts I've been careful to point out that what many analysts seem to be doing is applying methods that would normally be sound, to a particular moment in Bitcoin's history where new factors are swaying things out of your patterns.

[oda.krell]

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream"

Or as we say in Amsterdam: "Don't sell the pelt before you shoot the bear"

A very relevant one haha.

http://nl.wiktionary.org/wiki/de_huid_niet_verkopen_voor_de_beer_geschoten_is

You're based in Amsterdam? Awesome. We should have a drink some time. (Not gay.) (Just a bit gay.) (Only the tip.) (Never mind, I'm an idiot spending too much time on the sleazy part of the Internet)


Aaaanyway...

Like I said a page ago, I'd consider myself "agnostic" re: likelihood of further correction, despite the current breakout (or breakout attempt).

However, as I posted earlier in this thread, or in the Wall Observer thread a few days ago, in my daily trading decisions I've been following my experimental 'vwap/vwma median' method closely, and I'm pretty pleased with the result so far. I described the idea behind the method earlier in here, so go dig up my post history in case you care. So here's the most up-to-date view:





The first important step was staying above 770 USD (mtgox price), which we did, except for a brief while around Decemer 29. I posted about that result shortly before New Year's Eve.

The next median level (the one that corresponds to the first peak/bottom cycle) is at 915 USD (mtgox). We approached it yesterday, and now, instead of bouncing off of it it, we shot right through it.

So I admit, my "agnostic" stance is slightly leaning towards optimism right now. However, it continues to be conditional on the events of the next week or two:

If we stay above 915 for most of the time, and the other indicators play along (money flow, bid/ask ratio, shorter term trends), I'll seriously consider the possibility that the December correction has ended, much earlier than expected. Whether that means that we'll immediately see another big rally, or whether we first go into a longer consolidation/slow uptrend period is another question, but I do think that if we stay above the level mentioned above, another sharp drop -- i.e. the often demanded "final capitulation" -- is becoming rather unlikely.

[arepo]

If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?

what do you mean by skeptical? and i apologize for my brutish language i'm running on very little sleep. i mean no disrespect to you it just bothers me when comments are made that give practitioners of TA a bad name, in general.

and of course no trendlines have been broken at all. we've been riding the same bullish moving support since the $600 consolidation. however, now we are dizzyingly high above the trendline and so the market is being a little irrational right now, i'm not skeptical of what is, i'm cautious of what's to come. blind bullish sentiment is not a good trading technique i'm pretty sure you're mistaking a balanced head for skepticism

--arepo