You're based in Amsterdam? Awesome. We should have a drink some time. (Not gay.) (Just a bit gay.) (Only the tip.) (Never mind, I'm an idiot spending too much time on the sleazy part of the Internet)
Aaaanyway...
Like I said a page ago, I'd consider myself "agnostic" re: likelihood of further correction, despite the current breakout (or breakout attempt).
However, as I posted earlier in this thread, or in the
Wall Observer thread a few days ago, in my daily trading decisions I've been following my experimental 'vwap/vwma median' method closely, and I'm pretty pleased with the result so far. I described the idea behind the method earlier in here, so go dig up my post history in case you care. So here's the most up-to-date view:
The first important step was staying above 770 USD (mtgox price), which we did, except for a brief while around Decemer 29. I posted about that result shortly before New Year's Eve.
The next median level (the one that corresponds to the first peak/bottom cycle) is at 915 USD (mtgox). We approached it yesterday, and now, instead of bouncing off of it it, we shot right through it.
So I admit, my "agnostic" stance is slightly leaning towards optimism right now. However, it continues to be conditional on the events of the next week or two:
If we stay above 915 for most of the time, and the other indicators play along (money flow, bid/ask ratio, shorter term trends), I'll seriously consider the possibility that the December correction has ended, much earlier than expected. Whether that means that we'll immediately see another big rally, or whether we first go into a longer consolidation/slow uptrend period is another question, but I do think that
if we stay above the level mentioned above, another sharp drop -- i.e. the often demanded "final capitulation" -- is becoming rather unlikely.