Analysis

[oda.krell]

Let me be clear: a hypothetical downtrend that would destroy 1 year's worth of growth, reduces price by a factor of >10, will not lead investors to feel like they're in a bull market. Your point is made on a time scale that will simply be forgotten at that moment. In essence, according to your logic, any price above 0.10 USD could be redefined as bullish since it is above the price that BTC started trading at. Looking at such long time frames, with extremely large movements in between, as a singular bull market just because you found 2 or 3 sloppy points of contact on a log chart spanning several years is just laughable. That's all I have to say on this topic.

[1714801396]

1714801396

[1714801396]

1714801396

[1714801396]

1714801396

[1714801396]

1714801396

[segeln]

Let me be clear: a hypothetical downtrend that would destroy 1 year's worth of growth, reduces price by a factor of >10, will not lead investors to feel like they're in a bull market. Your point is made on a time scale that will simply be forgotten at that moment. In essence, according to your logic, any price above 0.10 USD could be redefined as bullish since it is above the price that BTC started trading at. Looking at such long time frames, with extremely large movements in between, as a singular bull market just because you found 2 or 3 sloppy points of contact on a log chart spanning several years is just laughable. That's all I have to say on this topic.

This post did`nt show any  improvements of your knowledge in TA

You are too much impressed by shortterm issues.
I am more longterm orientated

[zby]

PS: If we have a bear market,

Well, actually we are since April 2011 in a very stable bullish-market
Up and downs are no Problems and quite normal as long as the downs don`t hurt the ascending line, going beneath that line.
I am a little bored of those complaints about crashes, bubbles, dooming etc.



I Keep hodling !!!!

Why you start the bull market in April 2011 and not earlier? The chart shows very bullish movements before April 2011.

[segeln]

Why you start the bull market in April 2011 and not earlier? The chart shows very bullish movements before April 2011.

ask godmodetrader.de that made this chart

[zby]

Why you start the bull market in April 2011 and not earlier? The chart shows very bullish movements before April 2011.

ask godmodetrader.de that made this chart

So you are so sure it is correct (as presented by the above sniping remarks), but you don't know why?

[segeln]

So you are so sure it is correct (as presented by the above sniping remarks), but you don't know why?

Yes ,i am sure it is correct. Godmodetrader.de is a well renowned professional chartanalysis  Company.
I think,before the start in April 2011 Price-movements were to erratic to provide a proper Chart.
If those price-movements have been  more bullish than from beginning April the ascending line would be very step and without any suppoting points when the Price touches this line.
BTW :we have 5 supporting Points in the chart which is very sound for the reliabilty of the line

P.S.:I am astonished about critics oft that chart. Technically the chart is correct. I think people are stunned by the implications of the chart e.g. a very big drop won´t hurt the bullish chart.
Watch the drop in May 2011 when the price went down from about 50 $ to about 8 $.That`s a 85 % drop !
In November/December 2013 it was a drop of 50 %

[piramida]

Why you start the bull market in April 2011 and not earlier? The chart shows very bullish movements before April 2011.

I'll answer since this is the chart I also draw - because Gox opened in April (it existed before that, but really opened for wires and trading BTC only in March/April 2011). Before that, there was no significant trading volume, besides some OTC deals, which, without an established price, were mostly noise. It makes sense to discard noise.

[segeln]

this is the chart I also draw -

well done , piramida

[bambou]

me and my friend with whom i invested in bitcoin



which one am I?!

[Tzupy]

Watch the drop in May 2011 when the price went down from about 50 $ to about 8 $.That`s a 85 % drop !

Nope, there was no large drop in May 2011, it was from ~32$ in June to ~2$ in October, and that's a 94% drop.
And if that wasn't a bear market, then your terminology is weird.

[bambou]

Watch the drop in May 2011 when the price went down from about 50 $ to about 8 $.That`s a 85 % drop !

Nope, there was no large drop in May 2011, it was from ~32$ in June to ~2$ in October, and that's a 94% drop.
And if that wasn't a bear market, then your terminology is weird.

i would agree that it all come down to the time scale.

edit: and i kinda feel the "bearishness" around right now (and despite all the good vibes around BTC).. hence certainly not buying yet.

[segeln]

Watch the drop in May 2011 when the price went down from about 50 $ to about 8 $.That`s a 85 % drop !

 it was from ~32$ in June to ~2$ in October, and that's a 94% drop.
And if that wasn't a bear market, then your terminology is weird.

you are right with the date.
and you are right,at that time it was a bear market.
But the market evolved in a longtime bull-market
But you have to distinguish different Terms of trend.
First you have a general/prevailing  main trend. Inside this trend you can have many subtrends. Changing from bullish to bearish and vice versa.And lateral movenments,we are just in.
The presented Chart is a General and since 2011 prevailing Main-Trend

[Queeq]

segeln, why do you think trend doesn't change on such a big timeframe?

[segeln]

segeln, why do you think trend doesn't change on such a big timeframe?

the underlying trend is prevailing.
ofcourse it could change. i never said I think the trend will  never change .But at this time I don`t see any reasons why it should and could change.
Do you see any reasons for changing the main trend ?

[JustAnotherSheep]

you are right with the date.
and you are right,at that time it was a bear market.
But the market evolved in a longtime bull-market
But you have to distinguish different Terms of trend.
First you have a general/prevailing  main trend. Inside this trend you can have many subtrends. Changing from bullish to bearish and vice versa.And lateral movenments,we are just in.
The presented Chart is a General and since 2011 prevailing Main-Trend

I'm no expert, but here's a sheep's humble opinion: Sure, I agree, long term historic trend with bitcoin is definitely bullish, and you can just hold throughout with a high probability of earning money regardless (until the day the trend changes, nothing can keep growing forever). However, you can also choose to recognize the subtrends and attempt to play them to your advantage.
 
Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.
All the while the perma-bull holder, while getting a good amount of profit in the long run, could've made so much more had he not chosen to blind himself to the subtrends.

[segeln]

..However, you can also choose to recognize the subtrends and attempt to play them to your advantage.
 Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.
All the while the perma-bull holder, while getting a good amount of profit in the long run, could've made so much more had he not chosen to blind himself to the subtrends.

I think you got an important point:
longterm Investor or day-or week-trader.
The discussion of my exposed Chart shows that a lot of People are short-term biased You see it here in the forum in people exposing Charts of Minute-,hour -time periods
but you know as well,subtrend-trading is dangerous because

"the trend is your friend"

I personally prefer hodling.
Saves my nerves

P.S.:Sell high and buy low or vice versa, whatever you prefer.
or:
buy low sell high,
some do it the other way round but i disagree with that.

[Miz4r]

Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.

I don't think so, only in hindsight everything looks so easy. I don't think many traders were able to increase their btc holdings during the 2011 bear market, or at least not for long before they sold again.

[pinky]

Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.

I don't think so, only in hindsight everything looks so easy. I don't think many traders were able to increase their btc holdings during the 2011 bear market, or at least not for long before they sold again.

+1

It's easy to trade when you are certain about direction of the market. Trading in 2013 was very easy. But there will come the time, when old habits won't work anymore and most of the profits of so called "traders" will be gone.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.

I don't think so, only in hindsight everything looks so easy. I don't think many traders were able to increase their btc holdings during the 2011 bear market, or at least not for long before they sold again.

Perhaps you are right, I wasn't around back then and don't really know what it was like, but that was just an example.

Another, perhaps more realistic, example is the latest crash, where so far I've managed to double the fiat value I had at the top. A little help from lucif signalling that it was indeed a crash, prompting me to sell at the immediate bounce back from the China news drop and change my mindset to a bearish one, did help initially, but otherwise I've relied on comparative analysis as well as drawing patterns and seeing which side they break at to estimate where the price is heading and where it will stop.
 
Honestly, if I can manage this while still only learning TA using these noob methods, I believe any trader worth his salt would be able to do it at least as well, probably far better.

[bambou]

Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.

I don't think so, only in hindsight everything looks so easy. I don't think many traders were able to increase their btc holdings during the 2011 bear market, or at least not for long before they sold again.

Perhaps you are right, I wasn't around back then and don't really know what it was like, but that was just an example.

Another, perhaps more realistic, example is the latest crash, where so far I've managed to double the fiat value I had at the top. A little help from lucif signalling that it was indeed a crash, prompting me to sell at the immediate bounce back from the China news drop and change my mindset to a bearish one, did help initially, but otherwise I've relied on comparative analysis as well as drawing patterns and seeing which side they break at to estimate where the price is heading and where it will stop.
 
Honestly, if I can manage this while still only learning TA using these noob methods, I believe any trader worth his salt would be able to do it at least as well, probably far better.

+1 thats the plan. and i believe most people in here have the 'brain potential' to do so (and are actually succeeding at it and in general). if they dont, hodling is the way.

edit: a wise plan would also include not to trade 100% of your BTCs