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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1803455 times)
Cortex7
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August 26, 2014, 12:46:08 AM
 #11181

Decided I'll sell 50% of my gold tomorrow and buy 4-5 BTC with the cash  Grin

I think you will be positioned well, if you can hit BTC top then you will be sitting pretty on even more gold in some months. Good luck!

the good news is i think he's hitting a BTC bottom.

Woops, I wrote it ambiguously.

Yes, he's buying BTC at a bottom.

I meant he should also try and pick the top, sell the BTC purchased at the top, buy more gold and win.

EDIT: For what it's worth my personal prediction for next top is  $5k ± $2k


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August 26, 2014, 12:57:47 AM
 #11182


I'm still surprised that Gold-Dealers still use mostly fiat.

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August 26, 2014, 02:29:57 AM
 #11183

"For what it's worth my personal prediction for next top is  $5k ± $2k"
--
Back in 2004 I had it all mapped out in my brain: sell real estate, buy gold, then silver. Wait 5-10 years for the inevitable real estate crash, sell PMs (I was predicting $3k - $5k per oz) and buy real estate again. Obviously my friends and rels said I was nuts. In retrospect it was a pretty good plan, but I hadn't counted on those bitches at the Fed and their desperate need to keep the banks afloat at all costs. Then bitcoin came along.

Interesting, back in Jan 2001, the onion wrote W's inaugural speech for him. Pretty prophetic.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/bush-our-long-national-nightmare-of-peace-and-pros,464/

"Mere days from assuming the presidency and closing the door on eight years of Bill Clinton, president-elect George W. Bush assured the nation in a televised address Tuesday that "our long national nightmare of peace and prosperity is finally over.

During the 40-minute speech, Bush also promised to bring an end to the severe war drought that plagued the nation under Clinton, assuring citizens that the U.S. will engage in at least one Gulf War-level armed conflict in the next four years.

"You better believe we're going to mix it up with somebody at some point during my administration," said Bush, who plans a 250 percent boost in military spending. "Unlike my predecessor, I am fully committed to putting soldiers in battle situations. Otherwise, what is the point of even having a military?"

On the economic side, Bush vowed to bring back economic stagnation by implementing substantial tax cuts, which would lead to a recession, which would necessitate a tax hike, which would lead to a drop in consumer spending, which would lead to layoffs, which would deepen the recession even further."
cypherdoc
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August 26, 2014, 02:32:12 AM
 #11184

you know how much i enjoy putting up news that verifies that we, as Bitcoiners, are not hacculinating or existing in an echo chamber about past details regarding moral hazard/corruption in the financial system.  listen to this podcast interview btwn Barry Ritholtz and perhaps the ONLY person directly involved in the thick of the 2008 financial crisis who will tell you the truth:  Sheila Bair.  selected tidbits:

1.  for STT: Fannie was in fact trying to catch up to Wall St to recover market share loss when it moved into non-conforming loans from conforming loans.
2.  Brooksley Born was correct about derivatives
3.  derivatives still remain unregulated
4.  housing has only recovered to the bottom of past recoveries in the past
5.  Wall St is back at it knowing that it will be bailed out
6.  Lehman's Dick Fuld fully expected a bailout similar to Bear Stearns and rejected numerous white knight private offers in the summer of 2008 incl one from Warren Buffett. he was wrong and as a result, his net worth suffered a 50% loss; from 300M to 150M.  you can stop feeling sorry for him now.
7.  total admission of manipulation in markets, esp with Libor and the CDS market
8.  validation of the Greenspan & Bernanke Puts
9.  Long Term Capital Management was one of a string of past bailouts that set up the GFC
10. there has been and still is an implicit bailout guarantee that exists for long term bond holders which dovetails that our gvt views debt as money and that we can never allow debt spiral defaults. the result is that we can expect future money printing for any future crises.
11. Bair felt like a 3rd wheel when in private meetings with Bernanke and Paulson in the thick of the crisis.  
12. they both agree that Geithner is a snake, as do i, and is attempting to rewrite history with his book about how there was no choice for America but to bailout it's financial oligarchy.  in fact, it sounds like Bernanke was Geithner's puppet all along, which is the sense i got back then.

http://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts/masters-in-business/
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August 26, 2014, 03:08:33 AM
 #11185



^ Wences talk is an absolute must-watch. Can't believe I hadn't seen it 'till now. He's spot on about everything: history and purpose of money, properties of money, money as memory, gold's role until now, bitcoin replacing gold, perspective on reserve currencies, opinion that bitcoin is a store of value first, and that it's fundamental promise is as ideal money (not all the other bells and whistles that are so popular lately).

And ya gotta watch through the end of the (brief) comment period to see where he aptly dismisses alt-coins.

I've obviously been aware of Wences' resume since the first Xapo funding* was announced, but I now realize he's even more of an asset to bitcoin than I'd originally realized.

Anyways, thanks for the link cypher.


*sidenote: Xapo is the best-funded bitcoin company to date (~$40m total, IIRC), in case anyone didn't realize.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
Cortex7
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August 26, 2014, 04:20:14 AM
 #11186

Back in 2004 I had it all mapped out in my brain: sell real estate, buy gold, then silver. Wait 5-10 years for the inevitable real estate crash, sell PMs (I was predicting $3k - $5k per oz) and buy real estate again. Obviously my friends and rels said I was nuts. In retrospect it was a pretty good plan...

Gold has risen by ~12% per annum from 2004 ... 2014

Renting out a house gives less than 10% per annum.

Real estate has dropped in value (at least here in europe).

Yes I would say that was a good plan (provided you still had somewhere to live rent free).

but I hadn't counted on those bitches at the Fed and their desperate need to keep the banks afloat at all costs...

 Cheesy Sit tight, it seems the problem has been pushed out of money space and into derivatives, all hell will break loose when the derivatives markets unwind!

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August 26, 2014, 04:42:55 AM
 #11187

you know how much i enjoy putting up news that verifies that we, as Bitcoiners, are not hacculinating or existing in an echo chamber about past details regarding moral hazard/corruption in the financial system...

Thanks! It makes me feel like I'm not the last one standing in a B movie "Invasion of the Mind Snatchers".

zeetubes
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August 26, 2014, 06:17:07 AM
 #11188

you know how much i enjoy putting up news that verifies that we, as Bitcoiners, are not hacculinating or existing in an echo chamber about past details regarding moral hazard/corruption in the financial system...

Thanks! It makes me feel like I'm not the last one standing in a B movie "Invasion of the Mind Snatchers".

Yes, the endgame is written in stone, but the timing is a different matter. I think most people, including me, were totally unprepared for just how far the fed would go to maintain the status quo. They're obviously not stupid so they know exactly what they're doing and what the implications are and also how it will end. I've read a few articles and comments where the author implies that the fed made a mistake or miscalculated the impact of certain actions that they took, but that is bs. They know they can keep the game going for a while and perhaps for a long time yet. I stopped making predictions in 2009 because we are in completely new territory with no rules, but the past three months it does feel like things are starting to come to a head. Perhaps this year or next the fun will begin. 
marcus_of_augustus
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August 26, 2014, 09:27:22 AM
 #11189

you know how much i enjoy putting up news that verifies that we, as Bitcoiners, are not hacculinating or existing in an echo chamber about past details regarding moral hazard/corruption in the financial system...

Thanks! It makes me feel like I'm not the last one standing in a B movie "Invasion of the Mind Snatchers".

Yes, the endgame is written in stone, but the timing is a different matter. I think most people, including me, were totally unprepared for just how far the fed would go to maintain the status quo. They're obviously not stupid so they know exactly what they're doing and what the implications are and also how it will end. I've read a few articles and comments where the author implies that the fed made a mistake or miscalculated the impact of certain actions that they took, but that is bs. They know they can keep the game going for a while and perhaps for a long time yet. I stopped making predictions in 2009 because we are in completely new territory with no rules, but the past three months it does feel like things are starting to come to a head. Perhaps this year or next the fun will begin. 

There are no more valid predictions because they have doubled down on the CONfidence game ... it all keeps going until the populace lose confidence and that could be tomorrow or with an unprecedented run of stability next decade. The level of totalitarianism and lawlessness in banking they are prepared to condone seems unbounded at this stage also. All it takes is one exogenous event to spook the herd and it is all over of course.

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August 26, 2014, 09:35:35 AM
 #11190


here's the Wences video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M


^ Wences talk is an absolute must-watch. Can't believe I hadn't seen it 'till now. He's spot on about everything: history and purpose of money, properties of money, money as memory, gold's role until now, bitcoin replacing gold, perspective on reserve currencies, opinion that bitcoin is a store of value first, and that it's fundamental promise is as ideal money (not all the other bells and whistles that are so popular lately).

And ya gotta watch through the end of the (brief) comment period to see where he aptly dismisses alt-coins.

I've obviously been aware of Wences' resume since the first Xapo funding* was announced, but I now realize he's even more of an asset to bitcoin than I'd originally realized.

Anyways, thanks for the link cypher.


*sidenote: Xapo is the best-funded bitcoin company to date (~$40m total, IIRC), in case anyone didn't realize.

From the sounds of his talk, there's a chance he lurks this thread. Some of us predate him.
cypherdoc
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August 26, 2014, 10:07:11 AM
 #11191

Price is firming
RAJSALLIN
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August 26, 2014, 10:40:26 AM
 #11192


here's the Wences video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M


^ Wences talk is an absolute must-watch. Can't believe I hadn't seen it 'till now. He's spot on about everything: history and purpose of money, properties of money, money as memory, gold's role until now, bitcoin replacing gold, perspective on reserve currencies, opinion that bitcoin is a store of value first, and that it's fundamental promise is as ideal money (not all the other bells and whistles that are so popular lately).

And ya gotta watch through the end of the (brief) comment period to see where he aptly dismisses alt-coins.

I've obviously been aware of Wences' resume since the first Xapo funding* was announced, but I now realize he's even more of an asset to bitcoin than I'd originally realized.

Anyways, thanks for the link cypher.


*sidenote: Xapo is the best-funded bitcoin company to date (~$40m total, IIRC), in case anyone didn't realize.

From the sounds of his talk, there's a chance he lurks this thread. Some of us predate him.

He says bitcoin is adding 100.000 new users per day. Is this is a commonly accepted number? Sounds extremely high if you ask me. Pretty sure the price wuld be significalntly higher if this was actually the case.
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August 26, 2014, 10:56:58 AM
 #11193


here's the Wences video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M


^ Wences talk is an absolute must-watch. Can't believe I hadn't seen it 'till now. He's spot on about everything: history and purpose of money, properties of money, money as memory, gold's role until now, bitcoin replacing gold, perspective on reserve currencies, opinion that bitcoin is a store of value first, and that it's fundamental promise is as ideal money (not all the other bells and whistles that are so popular lately).

And ya gotta watch through the end of the (brief) comment period to see where he aptly dismisses alt-coins.

I've obviously been aware of Wences' resume since the first Xapo funding* was announced, but I now realize he's even more of an asset to bitcoin than I'd originally realized.

Anyways, thanks for the link cypher.


*sidenote: Xapo is the best-funded bitcoin company to date (~$40m total, IIRC), in case anyone didn't realize.

From the sounds of his talk, there's a chance he lurks this thread. Some of us predate him.

He says bitcoin is adding 100.000 new users per day. Is this is a commonly accepted number? Sounds extremely high if you ask me. Pretty sure the price wuld be significalntly higher if this was actually the case.

LoL! Sounds like immense bullshit (100k per day>>>!!!).
cypherdoc
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August 26, 2014, 03:15:09 PM
 #11194

housing ETF XHB has clearly rolled over.  the major homebuilders like MTH, TOL, KBH, PHM, HOV, etc are down in a funk.  they all topped in February. that's not good for the homeowner:

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August 26, 2014, 03:35:52 PM
 #11195

Keep pushing!
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August 26, 2014, 03:46:00 PM
 #11196

simply follow the money.  who does this policy benefit?:

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/08/26/fun-empire-fighting-sides-war
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August 26, 2014, 04:29:36 PM
 #11197

mortgages are still the main component of household debt:



http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/2013-Q4/HHDC_2013Q4.pdf
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August 26, 2014, 04:43:09 PM
 #11198

gold bounces off what was once support and is now resistance:

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August 26, 2014, 04:49:50 PM
 #11199

Looking at the chart above the total consumer debt is about 12 trillion. A thought that comes to mind is the total QE balance comparable in size?

If it's remotely comparable in size then it looks as if the banks got a free card to collect interest on money they created and use that money to inflate asset prices and then have us the taxpayer guarantees the loans with QE.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
unpure
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August 26, 2014, 04:51:30 PM
 #11200

gold bounces off what was once support and is now resistance:

Chart looks like it is in tight trading range like what btc is experiencing lately.

Swing traders and scrappers profit the most in period like this.
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