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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1936105 times)
Zarathustra
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August 29, 2014, 12:46:24 PM
 #11321

I have a problem with this debt creation means deflation meme.

In a restricted economic model, where we have some actors and some money, the value of each unit of money depends only on the actors willingness to hold. The demand and supply sides consists of the same people, where demand is the wish to hold more, and supply is the less willingness to hold.

Extending this with debt, a debt which is safe and of static volume, extends the money supply. The debt is more like money if it is transferable. If a debt is completely safe, have very low interest and is due very long time in the future, and is transferable, it is in practise equivalent to money.

In all cases up till now in the model, the money supply is static and we should have stable price level on goods in the market.

Extending the model again, now with an expanding money supply in the form of base money and debt, which is the current situation in the world, value of the money unit should fall, as the supply is now the willingness to hold less plus the new money, demand being the willingness to hold is the same.

Now the big unknown, hitherto considered static, is the willingness to hold. This is of course not static in the real world, as it depends on the actors life situation and the world situation, including the important prospect of the future value of the money. Basically, if there is an expectation that the money will fall in value, people will hold less money and hold long lasting, transferable goods instead. But this will only accelerate the fall of the value of the money, it will not be an upward pressure of the value of the money unit (otherwise called deflation).

I do not disagree that deflation is a real risk (or that it is happening now), i disagree only that it is the expanding money supply in the form of debt that is the reason for it.

In my view, it is a collapse of debt that is the reason for a possible deflation. A collapse of debt will happen when the market actors consider the risk of lending too high, or when other risks make people hoard wealth in the form of long lasting consumer goods like houses and cars, paid not with loans but paid for by less consumption of other goods.


The 'money supply' is only a fraction of total debt (USA 60 trillion). As long as debt creation in an economy is faster than productivity, you'll have inflation. As soon as the total debt sum doesn't increase as fast as productivity, you'll have deflation (Japan first and now the rest of the western world following).

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August 29, 2014, 12:48:25 PM
 #11322

Quote
the value of each unit of money depends only on the actors willingness to hold

The value of money relies on the production and exchangeable worth.  So national currency should rise with the exports and productive capacity of that nation.   I agree supply and demand applies but at some point its use determines its value.
USA exports money but it does not export goods net, so why are foreign governments or people even willing to hold and use its money.   I think its has become increasingly reliant on political and military influence.   As the only remaining superpower, the regime of the dollar is reliant on nations which do export and support dollar use such as Saudi Arabia.    

A big problem I think is self bias in the estimation of GDP and also under estimating inflation as an adjustment to growth.    In 2007 when USA was in recession, at the time this was not stated only in later revisions was it acknowledged that the economy was in decline.
Current job growth could be as a consequence of increasing part time work which relates to legislation subsidising the labour cost of shorter worker hours compared to full time work.  Is there any accuracy is recording that effect

My line above was in a restricted model with a fixed supply and no debt. I did not extend it to countries and different national money, which I think is mostly irrelevant in the grand scheme, also the import export question becomes irrelevant if you just disregard national borders.

The use of the money i only relevant is only relevant as far as use of money infers production and consumption, this of course indirectly affects the demand to hold from different actors, therefore also the value of money. With expanded trade, you can also expect changes in productivity of work, with higher productivity reducing the value of each unit of good, often perceived as increased value of the unit of money, or deflation. These things are always at play, but at a rather slow pace.

The important things are volume of money, tendency to save value for later, and the expected future value of money, which decides the amount of value held in money contra value held in goods.

The significance of the debt being the larger part of the money supply by far, is that the debt is connected to risk, and perceived risk will reduce the debt.

The question arises why the powers that shouldn't be prefer to have the money supply largely in the form of debt, as it is destabilizing compared to having mostly base money and only full reserve lending. The answer is that printing of new money outright is seen as what it is by the public, but creation of debt, guarantees, fractional reserve banking (negative reserve banking really), implicit guarantees and the cost of entitlements to be paid out in the future, goes under the radar, people just do not understand the money supply implications of it.

So they do not see the man behind the curtain, stealing their savings and productivity and setting the global trade system at risk.

Zarathustra
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August 29, 2014, 12:54:04 PM
 #11323

"Why Bitcoin is Better Than Gold, with Wences Casares"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKkfhi8Eaiw


I think his talk from Bitcoin2014 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M) is better, but the above is shorter and more recent (published today).

"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid....

cypherdoc
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August 29, 2014, 01:26:22 PM
 #11324

Starting to eat walls. I love it. Money probably arriving at the exchanges now.
adamstgBit
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August 29, 2014, 01:34:37 PM
 #11325

"Why Bitcoin is Better Than Gold, with Wences Casares"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKkfhi8Eaiw


I think his talk from Bitcoin2014 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M) is better, but the above is shorter and more recent (published today).

"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid....

thats not stupid thats just true

think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who.

this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it.
 Tongue

its a good point he makes.

flipperfish
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August 29, 2014, 02:07:48 PM
 #11326

"Why Bitcoin is Better Than Gold, with Wences Casares"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKkfhi8Eaiw


I think his talk from Bitcoin2014 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M) is better, but the above is shorter and more recent (published today).

"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid....

thats not stupid thats just true

think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who.

this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it.
 Tongue

its a good point he makes.

Actually, isn't it barter if some guy hands out meat and receives firewood? The only difference I see is the time delay between giving and receiving. Or is it the definition of barter, that the exchange of goods has to be immediate?
justusranvier
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August 29, 2014, 02:09:10 PM
 #11327

How do you think this will end?
The USA will end in the same manner as the USSR.
adamstgBit
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August 29, 2014, 02:12:37 PM
 #11328

"Why Bitcoin is Better Than Gold, with Wences Casares"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKkfhi8Eaiw


I think his talk from Bitcoin2014 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M) is better, but the above is shorter and more recent (published today).

"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid....

thats not stupid thats just true

think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who.

this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it.
 Tongue

its a good point he makes.

Actually, isn't it barter if some guy hands out meat and receives firewood? The only difference I see is the time delay between giving and receiving. Or is it the definition of barter, that the exchange of goods has to be immediate?

I guess...

it makes a lot of sense what he says, sure poeple made deals, ill give you this if you give me that, but its hard to imagine that poeple didn't keep track of who should get a piece of the leg and who should eat the balls. its human nature to keep track of such thing in groups, fair? probably not, thats why they started using other things to keep track of this kind of thing.

cypherdoc
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August 29, 2014, 02:20:08 PM
 #11329

LOL!!!

cypherdoc
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August 29, 2014, 02:30:03 PM
 #11330

wiping out this ask wall on Bitfinex...



will cause all sorts of pain for that little red line...

cypherdoc
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August 29, 2014, 02:32:25 PM
 #11331

i should have said, "wiping out the ask wall on either Bitfinex OR Bitstamp will cause all sorts of pain for that little red line".
Zarathustra
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August 29, 2014, 02:53:58 PM
 #11332

"Why Bitcoin is Better Than Gold, with Wences Casares"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKkfhi8Eaiw


I think his talk from Bitcoin2014 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M) is better, but the above is shorter and more recent (published today).

"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid....

thats not stupid thats just true

think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who.

this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it.
 Tongue

its a good point he makes.

Yes, I fully agree with him.

notme
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August 29, 2014, 03:28:34 PM
 #11333

I have a problem with this debt creation means deflation meme.

In a restricted economic model, where we have some actors and some money, the value of each unit of money depends only on the actors willingness to hold. The demand and supply sides consists of the same people, where demand is the wish to hold more, and supply is the less willingness to hold.

Extending this with debt, a debt which is safe and of static volume, extends the money supply. The debt is more like money if it is transferable. If a debt is completely safe, have very low interest and is due very long time in the future, and is transferable, it is in practise equivalent to money.

In all cases up till now in the model, the money supply is static and we should have stable price level on goods in the market.

Extending the model again, now with an expanding money supply in the form of base money and debt, which is the current situation in the world, value of the money unit should fall, as the supply is now the willingness to hold less plus the new money, demand being the willingness to hold is the same.

Now the big unknown, hitherto considered static, is the willingness to hold. This is of course not static in the real world, as it depends on the actors life situation and the world situation, including the important prospect of the future value of the money. Basically, if there is an expectation that the money will fall in value, people will hold less money and hold long lasting, transferable goods instead. But this will only accelerate the fall of the value of the money, it will not be an upward pressure of the value of the money unit (otherwise called deflation).

I do not disagree that deflation is a real risk (or that it is happening now), i disagree only that it is the expanding money supply in the form of debt that is the reason for it.

In my view, it is a collapse of debt that is the reason for a possible deflation. A collapse of debt will happen when the market actors consider the risk of lending too high, or when other risks make people hoard wealth in the form of long lasting consumer goods like houses and cars, paid not with loans but paid for by less consumption of other goods.


The 'money supply' is only a fraction of total debt (USA 60 trillion). As long as debt creation in an economy is faster than productivity, you'll have inflation. As soon as the total debt sum doesn't increase as fast as productivity, you'll have deflation (Japan first and now the rest of the western world following).

Good point.  Increasing productivity has been known to cause deflation since at least Adam Smith (1776).  I still don't see how collapse of debt (which reduces the demand for money because now that debt isn't going to be repaid) causes deflation.  If you have to make debt payments, you will try make sure you have enough dollars to pay them.  This is why debt increases demand for dollars.  Again, yes initial issuance is short term inflationary, but I don't see how you can claim it is inflationary overall.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
justusranvier
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August 29, 2014, 03:50:32 PM
 #11334

You guys might find this interesting: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2exd3e/bitcoin_btcd_and_golang/
Adrian-x
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August 29, 2014, 04:05:19 PM
 #11335

"Why Bitcoin is Better Than Gold, with Wences Casares"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKkfhi8Eaiw


I think his talk from Bitcoin2014 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M) is better, but the above is shorter and more recent (published today).

"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid....

thats not stupid thats just true

think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who.

this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it.
 Tongue

its a good point he makes.

Barter evolved as a form of settlement between 0 trust parties. The traders on the old silk road for eg. But first and foremost it was the community and yes communities were debt based.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
Zarathustra
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August 29, 2014, 04:11:55 PM
 #11336

I have a problem with this debt creation means deflation meme.

In a restricted economic model, where we have some actors and some money, the value of each unit of money depends only on the actors willingness to hold. The demand and supply sides consists of the same people, where demand is the wish to hold more, and supply is the less willingness to hold.

Extending this with debt, a debt which is safe and of static volume, extends the money supply. The debt is more like money if it is transferable. If a debt is completely safe, have very low interest and is due very long time in the future, and is transferable, it is in practise equivalent to money.

In all cases up till now in the model, the money supply is static and we should have stable price level on goods in the market.

Extending the model again, now with an expanding money supply in the form of base money and debt, which is the current situation in the world, value of the money unit should fall, as the supply is now the willingness to hold less plus the new money, demand being the willingness to hold is the same.

Now the big unknown, hitherto considered static, is the willingness to hold. This is of course not static in the real world, as it depends on the actors life situation and the world situation, including the important prospect of the future value of the money. Basically, if there is an expectation that the money will fall in value, people will hold less money and hold long lasting, transferable goods instead. But this will only accelerate the fall of the value of the money, it will not be an upward pressure of the value of the money unit (otherwise called deflation).

I do not disagree that deflation is a real risk (or that it is happening now), i disagree only that it is the expanding money supply in the form of debt that is the reason for it.

In my view, it is a collapse of debt that is the reason for a possible deflation. A collapse of debt will happen when the market actors consider the risk of lending too high, or when other risks make people hoard wealth in the form of long lasting consumer goods like houses and cars, paid not with loans but paid for by less consumption of other goods.


The 'money supply' is only a fraction of total debt (USA 60 trillion). As long as debt creation in an economy is faster than productivity, you'll have inflation. As soon as the total debt sum doesn't increase as fast as productivity, you'll have deflation (Japan first and now the rest of the western world following).

Good point.  Increasing productivity has been known to cause deflation since at least Adam Smith (1776).  I still don't see how collapse of debt (which reduces the demand for money because now that debt isn't going to be repaid) causes deflation.  If you have to make debt payments, you will try make sure you have enough dollars to pay them.  This is why debt increases demand for dollars.  Again, yes initial issuance is short term inflationary, but I don't see how you can claim it is inflationary overall.

Imagine that 99 pct of the 60 trillions of debt would be wiped out. That means that the other side of the balance sheet would be wiped out as well. The price level in the economy would return to that level on which it had been as the total debt sum was at 0.6 trillions.

Zarathustra
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August 29, 2014, 04:26:28 PM
 #11337

"Why Bitcoin is Better Than Gold, with Wences Casares"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKkfhi8Eaiw


I think his talk from Bitcoin2014 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M) is better, but the above is shorter and more recent (published today).

"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid....

thats not stupid thats just true

think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who.

this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it.
 Tongue

its a good point he makes.

But first and foremost it was the community and yes communities were debt based.

Yes, human life can be called 'debitism' (Dr. Paul C. Martin) from the very beginning. That worked perfectly in a world of communities. That's the difference to the society, which is the perversion of the community. A society needs organized violence (state and church) to handle the debt.

NewLiberty
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August 29, 2014, 04:28:22 PM
 #11338

"Why Bitcoin is Better Than Gold, with Wences Casares"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKkfhi8Eaiw


I think his talk from Bitcoin2014 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M) is better, but the above is shorter and more recent (published today).

"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid....

thats not stupid thats just true

think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who.

this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it.
 Tongue

its a good point he makes.

Yes, I fully agree with him.

Barter was common between tribes, not so much within them.  It still is.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
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Zarathustra
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August 29, 2014, 04:32:10 PM
 #11339

"Why Bitcoin is Better Than Gold, with Wences Casares"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKkfhi8Eaiw


I think his talk from Bitcoin2014 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M) is better, but the above is shorter and more recent (published today).

"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid....

thats not stupid thats just true

think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who.

this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it.
 Tongue

its a good point he makes.

Yes, I fully agree with him.

Barter was common between tribes, not so much within them.  It still is.

It wasn't. They were self-sufficient.

rocks
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August 29, 2014, 04:51:01 PM
 #11340

"Why Bitcoin is Better Than Gold, with Wences Casares"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKkfhi8Eaiw


I think his talk from Bitcoin2014 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M) is better, but the above is shorter and more recent (published today).

"Barter never happened" This is the truth. It's the debt, stupid....

thats not stupid thats just true

think about it, if there was a lazy ass in the trib that called everyone names and never did anything, you think poeple would feel the owe him anything ever? so why would the help him out and "Barter", nope, its always been, poeple keeping track of who owes who.

this is just how humans interact, Barter never happened, deal with it.
 Tongue

its a good point he makes.

Thought people here might like this comment from the above youtube video

Quote
If gold and silver are better than Bitcoin, why don't any businesses accept it for payment?  Bitcoin is accepted by tens of thousands of businesses, including very large merchants like Overstock, Newegg, and TigerDirect.

Gold bugs (and I used to be one) are all sitting around waiting for the other 99% of humanity to wake up and see gold as the true sound money platform, and in the process both vindicate themselves as being "right" and become rich in the process.

However, while they are patiently waiting decades, bitcoin adoption will grow and grow, realizing the vision they have for gold. At some point more and more gold bugs will switch, bitcoin is the sound money vindication they have been waiting for, it is just a different platform.

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