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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806906 times)
cypherdoc
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August 31, 2014, 02:37:01 AM
 #11421

"i'm expecting some bank trouble again so i've spread them out in multiple bank accounts trying to keep them close to the $250,000 limit."

Cypher, I'm pretty sure the $250K insurance is a limit and is aggregated across all fdic bank accounts. That needs verification but someone else may know for sure.

no, it's per account.
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August 31, 2014, 02:51:15 AM
 #11422


Good point.  Increasing productivity has been known to cause deflation since at least Adam Smith (1776).  I still don't see how collapse of debt (which reduces the demand for money because now that debt isn't going to be repaid) causes deflation.  If you have to make debt payments, you will try make sure you have enough dollars to pay them.  This is why debt increases demand for dollars.  Again, yes initial issuance is short term inflationary, but I don't see how you can claim it is inflationary overall.

you're over thinking this.

money supply = monetary base + mostly credit/debt.  in the run up into the 2008 high in housing and stocks, ppl leveraged up to buy both assets.  when the bubble burst, margin calls went out to stock holders and home owners found they could no longer make mortgage payments.  what do you do in that situation?  panic sell at lower prices to limit your losses.  the whole process began to snowball with stocks and home values plunging as a result along with widespread debt defaults.  oil dropped to $30. gold hit its 9 yr cycle low. all that leverage started coming out of the system (deflation) and there was a worldwide scramble for USD's to pay off that liquidated debt as well as a run to safety into UST's which only exacerbates the deflation associated with Fed policy to manipulate rates downwards during normal times.

of course you can never rule it out.  but i really don't think so.

first off, both Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe did not have functioning bond markets.  Germany was just coming off the war and really had no infrastructure so the only way they could get money out to its citizens and to pay off war reparations was to print.  the massive potential for all the US debt build to deflate thru defaults is likely to win in the medium to long term. after a big washout, maybe hyperinflation is possible.  but not until then.  also, the monetary velocity chart is going nowhere but down right now along with interest rates.  that's deflation.  if ppl were dumping their cash as fast as possible, it would be going up instead.  what ppl are doing is saving like crazy.  banking deposits are way up and ppl are clinging to what cash they have.  i know this from my own accounts.  i've pulled out of the stock mkt and my deposit accounts are brimming.  i'm expecting some bank trouble again so i've spread them out in multiple bank accounts trying to keep them close to the $250,000 limit.  also saving in Bitcoin obviously.  as long as the USD remains the petrocurrency and our military remains strong the USD is likely to go up in a deflationary event as it did in 2008.  the good news for most Americans is that our price of goods and services has not gone up significantly.  sure, in some areas it has, like student tuitions and healthcare premiums.  but even $4 gas hasn't been too bad and food is relatively inexpensive.  in short, i don't see the USD plummeting just yet and the charts i've been putting up indicate we may be starting a major rally.

for the same reasons i argue that Bitcoin will win the altcoin space as ppl gravitate to one currency for efficiency reasons and the network effect, i think that Bitcoin wins over gold.  as long as Bitcoin can remain secure, there is every reason to like it better than gold.  definitive fixed supply, portable, divisible, transportable, room for growth, intangible, not encumbered by a paper market (yet), unreachable by gvt, etc.  so no, i don't think they will go up together.  for the last 3 yrs, we've already seen them go in opposite directions.  gold has failed in its historical role as an enforcer to UST's.

Emphasis mine.  This has been my point all along.  Deflation does cause defaults, and defaults cascade due to rehypothecation, but when it all is said and done, the end result is inflationary.  When the debt is not defaulted on and ends up being paid back, then overall it has a deflationary effect, which continues until someone can't afford their debt.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
cypherdoc
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August 31, 2014, 02:51:33 AM
 #11423

why don't you let him speak for himself?

cypher, this topic has been beaten to death.  To suggest that gold has absolutely no edge over cryptocurrencies, under any circumstances, demonstrates how desperate and puerile your position has become.  You are becoming less reasonable and more evangelical by the day, and it only serves to embarrass you and your cohorts.  Hard assets have a few thousand years of history as stores of value and currency.  Cryptocurrencies, around 6 years now?  The arrogance.  You fail to understand that any cryptocurrency is simply a securely shared ledger.  Cryptocurrencies solve a host of problems.  Hard assets solve other problems.  If there were no assets but Bitcoin, what would Bitcoin be worth?

Your arguments are analogous to saying that because information can be transmitted via the internet, there is no longer any need for physical objects to be transmitted from person to person.  Hell, even lumber has more "value" than Bitcoins in certain circumstances.  Get your head out of your ass.

actually, the Bitcoin > gold argument has been making tremendous strides, if you hadn't noticed.  and the inverse price action since gold's top in Sept 2011 has caught everyone's attention, rightfully so.  more and more of the gold evangelists have started migrating over to Bitcoin and even accepting Bitcoin for gold.  gold mining stocks have been obliterated with GDXJ at it's all time low.  no wonder given how destructive a ledger technology it really has been shown to be:

http://www.coindesk.com/microscope-economic-environmental-costs-bitcoin-mining/



silver has been literally obliterated by Bitcoin.  as i said further up the thread, gold is failing miserably at its long time historical regulator of loose interest rate policy.  if it can't act as a check on the fiat CB system and UST's, what good is it, especially when it can't even hold its price?

i've never argued gold has no value.  it has industrial value of around $250/oz.  but it's crap as money.  get your head out of your ass.
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August 31, 2014, 02:53:08 AM
 #11424


cypher, this topic has been beaten to death.  To suggest that gold has absolutely no edge over cryptocurrencies, under any circumstances, demonstrates how desperate and puerile your position has become.  You are becoming less reasonable and more evangelical by the day, and it only serves to embarrass you and your cohorts...

...Get your head out of your ass.

Don't stay up nights waiting for this.


traderCJ
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August 31, 2014, 03:00:07 AM
 #11425


cypher, this topic has been beaten to death.  To suggest that gold has absolutely no edge over cryptocurrencies, under any circumstances, demonstrates how desperate and puerile your position has become.  You are becoming less reasonable and more evangelical by the day, and it only serves to embarrass you and your cohorts...

...Get your head out of your ass.

Don't stay up nights waiting for this.



Indeed.
cypherdoc
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August 31, 2014, 03:01:47 AM
 #11426


cypher, this topic has been beaten to death.  To suggest that gold has absolutely no edge over cryptocurrencies, under any circumstances, demonstrates how desperate and puerile your position has become.  You are becoming less reasonable and more evangelical by the day, and it only serves to embarrass you and your cohorts...

...Get your head out of your ass.

Don't stay up nights waiting for this.



Indeed.

this is actually a good sign for Bitcoin (Gold 2.0) advocates.  the gold resistance continues to be strong, angry, and defiant despite the wipeout.  

it's early innings.
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August 31, 2014, 03:31:34 AM
 #11427

i don't really see a problem, do you?

traderCJ
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August 31, 2014, 03:34:16 AM
 #11428

actually, the Bitcoin > gold argument has been making tremendous strides, if you hadn't noticed.

Based on what, the exchange rate between gold and Bitcoin?  I could argue that the DJIA index > gold or Bitcoin just based over the past 12 months.  Or is your argument that because some people are converting gold to Bitcoin, Bitcoin > gold?  Does that mean that computer components > Bitcoin if people use Bitcoin at Newegg?  It's a currency, of course people will convert between it and other assets.  That's the whole point.

Dollars make better currency than real estate, but does that mean that "dollars > real estate"?

Quote
silver has been literally obliterated by Bitcoin.  as i said further up the thread, gold is failing miserably at its long time historical regulator of loose interest rate policy.  if it can't act as a check on the fiat CB system and UST's, what good is it, especially when it can't even hold its price?

Again, based on exchange rate?  If something outperforms Bitcoin over a period of time (gold, DJIA, whatever), does that mean it has "obliterated" Bitcoin?  Silver and Bitcoin solve different problems.  You're stating that gold cannot "hold it's price", but what about Bitcoin?  Your language is deliberately vague to mislead.

Quote
i've never argued gold has no value.  it has industrial value of around $250/oz.  but it's crap as money.  get your head out of your ass.

Hard assets have been lousy currencies ever since bankers realized they could exchange notes of credit instead of those assets.  But that's not the point.  Gold doesn't need to be a currency to have value.  What "industrial value" does a home have?  Or a sports car?  Or a hockey team?
traderCJ
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August 31, 2014, 03:40:13 AM
 #11429

this is actually a good sign for Bitcoin (Gold 2.0) advocates.  the gold resistance continues to be strong, angry, and defiant despite the wipeout.  

it's early innings.

You're basing all of this on the "wipeout"?  In other words, you're saying that gold is inferior because if you bought at X date and sold at Y date, you would have taken it in the pants?  Gold pot, meet Bitcoin kettle.  You're certifiably nuts ..

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i don't really see a problem, do you?

Ah the old "past performance predicts future performance" racket.
cypherdoc
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August 31, 2014, 03:48:52 AM
 #11430

actually, the Bitcoin > gold argument has been making tremendous strides, if you hadn't noticed.

Based on what, the exchange rate between gold and Bitcoin?
yes. we're all investors here after all.
Quote


I could argue that the DJIA index > gold or Bitcoin just based over the past 12 months.

huh?  1 yr ago Bitcoin was 125 or 4x what it is now.  the Dow hasn't performed even close to that
Quote

Or is your argument that because some people are converting gold to Bitcoin, Bitcoin > gold?  Does that mean that computer components > Bitcoin if people use Bitcoin at Newegg?  It's a currency, of course people will convert between it and other assets.  That's the whole point.

Dollars make better currency than real estate, but does that mean that "dollars > real estate"?

more and more ppl are converting their gold to Bitcoin.  the exchange rates indicate that along with the charts.  one can also feel the sentiment shifting if you're well enough read.
Quote
Quote
silver has been literally obliterated by Bitcoin.  as i said further up the thread, gold is failing miserably at its long time historical regulator of loose interest rate policy.  if it can't act as a check on the fiat CB system and UST's, what good is it, especially when it can't even hold its price?

Again, based on exchange rate?  If something outperforms Bitcoin over a period of time (gold, DJIA, whatever), does that mean it has "obliterated" Bitcoin?  Silver and Bitcoin solve different problems.  You're stating that gold cannot "hold it's price", but what about Bitcoin?  Your language is deliberately vague to mislead.

right.  i'm trying to mislead ppl here. Roll Eyes  look, i've lived my spoken words literally since April 2011 when i started liquidating my silver so clearly i believe in what i'm saying.
Quote
Quote
i've never argued gold has no value.  it has industrial value of around $250/oz.  but it's crap as money.  get your head out of your ass.

Hard assets have been lousy currencies ever since bankers realized they could exchange notes of credit instead of those assets.  But that's not the point.  Gold doesn't need to be a currency to have value.  What "industrial value" does a home have?  Or a sports car?  Or a hockey team?

it is a major point in a long list of points as to why Bitcoin is superior, both as a store of value, and as a currency.  it's this multifunctionality that is resonating with investors and consumers.  many of us have been able to sit on BTC obtained since 2011 and watch our monthly expenses for services plunge in BTC terms as the price rose.  try that with gold.
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August 31, 2014, 03:57:29 AM
 #11431

ZH: "It's Settled: Central Banks Trade S&P500 Futures"

if it is indeed settled then it wouldn't be a huge shock. Your government dollars at work.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-30/its-settled-central-banks-trade-sp500-futures#comment-5163811
cypherdoc
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August 31, 2014, 03:57:43 AM
 #11432

this is actually a good sign for Bitcoin (Gold 2.0) advocates.  the gold resistance continues to be strong, angry, and defiant despite the wipeout.  

it's early innings.

You're basing all of this on the "wipeout"?  In other words, you're saying that gold is inferior because if you bought at X date and sold at Y date, you would have taken it in the pants?  Gold pot, meet Bitcoin kettle.  You're certifiably nuts ..

Quote
i don't really see a problem, do you?

Ah the old "past performance predicts future performance" racket.

you have selective hearing.  i've advanced a number of fundamental reasons why many of us think Bitcoin is superior in it's function.  if you can refute those, please do so now.

while past performance doesn't guarantee future results, what better way is there for us to place our bets?  with sound fundamentals that i and many others have hammered home in this thread regarding Bitcoin's superiority, why expect a sudden change in trend?   just b/c you say so?  i should call you a name here but i won't stoop to your level.
cypherdoc
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August 31, 2014, 04:05:23 AM
 #11433

ZH: "It's Settled: Central Banks Trade S&P500 Futures"

if it is indeed settled then it wouldn't be a huge shock. Your government dollars at work.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-30/its-settled-central-banks-trade-sp500-futures#comment-5163811

that's really f*d up.

i can't tell you how many times i've sat there watching realtime charts with a huge dump in the /ES futures only to be met with an instantaneous buy to jack the price back up to where it started.  sure, it could be an honest trader but given the low volumes, presence of a PPT, what's at stake, revelations of the NSA, and this article, i seriously doubt they're honest. 

furthermore, you can't short stocks anymore based on fundamentals.  i'm sure the Fed enjoys inflicting losses on honest shorts b/c they're "unpatriotic".
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August 31, 2014, 04:07:11 AM
 #11434

why don't you let him speak for himself?

cypher, this topic has been beaten to death.  To suggest that gold has absolutely no edge over cryptocurrencies, under any circumstances, demonstrates how desperate and puerile your position has become.  You are becoming less reasonable and more evangelical by the day, and it only serves to embarrass you and your cohorts.  Hard assets have a few thousand years of history as stores of value and currency.  Cryptocurrencies, around 6 years now?  The arrogance.  You fail to understand that any cryptocurrency is simply a securely shared ledger.  Cryptocurrencies solve a host of problems.  Hard assets solve other problems.  If there were no assets but Bitcoin, what would Bitcoin be worth?

Your arguments are analogous to saying that because information can be transmitted via the internet, there is no longer any need for physical objects to be transmitted from person to person.  Hell, even lumber has more "value" than Bitcoins in certain circumstances.  Get your head out of your ass.



It should be obvious that bitcoin is vastly superior to gold in nearly every typical "moneyness" category: scarcity, portability, recognizability, etc, etc. Where gold wins, is in a semi-stable civilization that has developed somewhat large-scale trade, but has no digital infrastructure. While it's possible that humanity reverts to such a state, it's unlikely, representing only a very thin slice of the long tail of possible outcomes. If you want to hedge for that particular outcome by holding gold, that's your "optimization" to make. I don't know your personal utility curve, after all.

Anyways, bitcoin replacing gold is an inherently optimistic viewpoint... And I'm not saying that as a bitcoin-bull; I'm saying that in the sense that it's optimistic to think that the rationally superior form of money will win due to bottom-up market forces. It would be very depressing if gold continues to be monetized for more than another couple decades in light of the vastly better money humanity has had since 2009.






Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
Kayex
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August 31, 2014, 04:09:29 AM
 #11435

Right now people around me are saying that gold prices will be picking up.
I'm not sure if that will happen or not.

Even the price for BTC kind of went down now.
As you can see here
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
The value of BTC is going down.
Is it because of the lack of demand of BTC?
Or is it because governments are now regulating BTC?

Either way BTC and Gold stocks are going down atm.
I'm not sure how to feel about this situation.

worldinacoin
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August 31, 2014, 04:13:19 AM
 #11436

Right now people around me are saying that gold prices will be picking up.
I'm not sure if that will happen or not.

Even the price for BTC kind of went down now.
As you can see here
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
The value of BTC is going down.
Is it because of the lack of demand of BTC?
Or is it because governments are now regulating BTC?

Either way BTC and Gold stocks are going down atm.
I'm not sure how to feel about this situation.

With the Ukraine crisis escalating it will not be a surprise if Gold goes up, presently it is still high by historical standards.
falllling
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August 31, 2014, 05:07:48 AM
 #11437

Right now people around me are saying that gold prices will be picking up.
I'm not sure if that will happen or not.

Even the price for BTC kind of went down now.
As you can see here
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
The value of BTC is going down.
Is it because of the lack of demand of BTC?
Or is it because governments are now regulating BTC?

Either way BTC and Gold stocks are going down atm.
I'm not sure how to feel about this situation.

bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, you saw it already
cypherdoc
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August 31, 2014, 05:10:53 AM
 #11438

Right now people around me are saying that gold prices will be picking up.
I'm not sure if that will happen or not.

Even the price for BTC kind of went down now.
As you can see here
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
The value of BTC is going down.
Is it because of the lack of demand of BTC?
Or is it because governments are now regulating BTC?

Either way BTC and Gold stocks are going down atm.
I'm not sure how to feel about this situation.

bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, you saw it already

Ah, he dares enter this thread.

You're an idiot.
falllling
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August 31, 2014, 05:13:05 AM
 #11439

Right now people around me are saying that gold prices will be picking up.
I'm not sure if that will happen or not.

Even the price for BTC kind of went down now.
As you can see here
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
The value of BTC is going down.
Is it because of the lack of demand of BTC?
Or is it because governments are now regulating BTC?

Either way BTC and Gold stocks are going down atm.
I'm not sure how to feel about this situation.

bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, you saw it already

Ah, he dares enter this thread.

You're an idiot.

i am just telling the truth
cypherdoc
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August 31, 2014, 05:14:53 AM
 #11440

Right now people around me are saying that gold prices will be picking up.
I'm not sure if that will happen or not.

Even the price for BTC kind of went down now.
As you can see here
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
The value of BTC is going down.
Is it because of the lack of demand of BTC?
Or is it because governments are now regulating BTC?

Either way BTC and Gold stocks are going down atm.
I'm not sure how to feel about this situation.

bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, you saw it already

Ah, he dares enter this thread.

You're an idiot.

i am just telling the truth

Them tell us the truth about who is paying you. It won't hurt. It might give you some credibility.
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