Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

Daniel continues to echo my sentiment:

http://bitcoinist.net/the-two-ideologies-in-bitcoin/

[cypherdoc]

Daniel again. 

notice how he says that as long as we are in a transition to a new currency (Bitcoin), which we are, he would not engage in Bitcoin lending (loans).  iow, he would not recommend Bitcoin "speculation", specifically imo, that which SC's looks to promote.  the SC's ppl are his "entrepreneur" class:

https://epicenterbitcoin.com/podcast/056/

[BldSwtTrs]

I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

[Odalv]

...  So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

2014-10-14 was end of bear market.  I think, there are no more bitcoins for sale under $340.

[Miz4r]

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

If Bitcoin is going to be revolutionary that means that many more people will be buying and using it in the future and that means the price will have to be much higher than it is now. Most people are still dismissing it outright and only a small fraction has bothered to buy some coins, so I don't see how anyone can say that we've seen the peak already, unless they think it's going to fail or a new cryptocoin will take over. But assuming it's going to be revolutionary, we've seen nothing yet and still have a few bull markets to go before the masses have warmed up to it and we reach the real peak.

[cypherdoc]

I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

i don't think we've even reached the Peak in that graph.  considering the $5T traded PER DAY in the Forex markets plus the $8T valued gold market, we've only just begun.

[smooth]

I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

i don't think we've even reached the Peak in that graph.  considering the $5T traded PER DAY in the Forex markets plus the $8T valued gold market, we've only just begun.

The thing I don't like about the graph is the shape of it, where the true growth never reaches the hype. Sure that happens, but there are many technologies that go through a hype phase and a bust, but then the real growth on the right side eventually eclipses the original hype.

It is possible that Bitcoin is doing that (with the peak in late 2013/early 2014) and will indeed, eventually grow to something on the scale of trillions far exceeding the previous peak, but somewhat more slowly.

Also, I don't believe it is really possible to position/rank/value technologies on the left side of the peak. You only know the peak in hindsight.

[smooth]

so oil is getting it hard: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-14/exposing-oil-price-shock-contagion-transmission-pathway 

As we noted previously, counterparty risk concerns (and thus financial system fragility) are starting to rear their ugly heads.

what is happening? this cannot end well

High leverage magnifies the risks inherent in asset or commodity price volatility. Any large move is extremely bad news for such a financial system. In 2007 it was oil (up) and real estate (down). Now we are seeing much the opposite. There will be winners and losers. The winners don't matter, but losers mean huge counterparty risks and therefore lead to a risk-off trading cycle.

[cypherdoc]

I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

i don't think we've even reached the Peak in that graph.  considering the $5T traded PER DAY in the Forex markets plus the $8T valued gold market, we've only just begun.

The thing I don't like about the graph is the shape of it, where the true growth never reaches the hype. Sure that happens, but there are many technologies that go through a hype phase and a bust, but then the real growth on the right side eventually eclipses the original hype.

It is possible that Bitcoin is doing that (with the peak in late 2013/early 2014) and will indeed, eventually grow to something on the scale of trillions far exceeding the previous peak, but somewhat more slowly.

Also, I don't believe it is really possible to position/rank/value technologies on the left side of the peak. You only know the peak in hindsight.

yeah, you're right in that i don't think its a good graph either as applied to Bitcoin.

we're talking about a new money here.  one built for the internet.  there's a reason alot of us think the result will be binary; either zero or to the moon.  it's b/c the real problems of the day are due to CB printing to the tune of $trillions.  Bitcoin is a measly $5B.  the network effects of money are enormous and IF Bitcoin becomes a global currency who really knows just how high we can go?

and we really are a mere 5 yrs in.  when i bought in i mentally told myself i would give it to 2020 to make a final decision on Bitcoin esp if it hadn't failed by then.  that's still 6 whole years away.

[Melbustus]

...
and we really are a mere 5 yrs in.  when i bought in i mentally told myself i would give it to 2020 to make a final decision on Bitcoin esp if it hadn't failed by then.  that's still 6 whole years away.

I gave myself 10yrs from when I first dove in to do any re-evaluation (assuming no core protocol/crypto issues, etc). So Bitcoin has an extra year to prove itself to me vs you.

[marcus_of_augustus]

bitcoin $5 Bill

Paypal $50 Bill

Alibaba IPO $200 Bill

Microsoft $390 Bill

Apple $640 Bill

Morgan Stanley Managed Private Wealth Funds $1.5 Trill

Gold $7 Trill

Offshore Deposits $15 Trill

Global M2 money supply $60 Trill

Gross World Product $80 Trill

Global Notional Derivatives $800 Trill

.... we are at the bottom of HUGE mountain range looking upwards.

[STT]

Gold could go down 20% or maybe 30% but it can go up 50%, 100% or a lot more so it seems like a good investment especially since you can have Gold without much third party risk.

Gold is certainly a good bet at this point, brother. See here for patterns and details: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=869664.msg9823983#msg9823983

 

Gold is aided by the drop in oil barrel pricing as alot of the costs are related to energy and construction equipment gets pretty bad mileage!      Also any worries on country credit worthiness should help gold which is retained by central banks for this purpose as an irrefutable exchange of worth in global trade.   Also low oil causes problems with rebalancing budgets, USA is consumer of course but elsewhere; Venezuela nears default

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Daniel continues to echo my sentiment:

http://bitcoinist.net/the-two-ideologies-in-bitcoin/

This guy gets it. Does anyone keep a shortlist of who is on the investor side, prominent figures and/or forum and reddit posters? I could name a few people off the top of my head, but it might be useful to have a list.

[molecular]

I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).

It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.

However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.

At some point the rising price will create another hype in a positive feedback loop. Noone know where that will take us and really noone knows when or even if it will occur. Some black swan type event can happen at any time external to bitcoin and trigger it, too.

I'm betting on it. Be it 1 day or 2 years.

If bitcoin fails to break the ath by end of 2016 or falls and remains below $266 for an extended period (months), then I'm worried.

[shields]

I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:

As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?

i don't think we've even reached the Peak in that graph.  considering the $5T traded PER DAY in the Forex markets plus the $8T valued gold market, we've only just begun.

The thing I don't like about the graph is the shape of it, where the true growth never reaches the hype. Sure that happens, but there are many technologies that go through a hype phase and a bust, but then the real growth on the right side eventually eclipses the original hype.

It is possible that Bitcoin is doing that (with the peak in late 2013/early 2014) and will indeed, eventually grow to something on the scale of trillions far exceeding the previous peak, but somewhat more slowly.

Also, I don't believe it is really possible to position/rank/value technologies on the left side of the peak. You only know the peak in hindsight.

Growth isn't an axis on the chart. The y-axis is expectations not growth. By the time of maturity Bitcoin could be a lot bigger than it was at the height of expectations, but have lower expectations.

[Melbustus]

...

I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).

It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.

However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.
...

I feel like the chatter about the halving has already started. Feels like early-mid 2012 in that regard.

[solex]

...

I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).

It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.

However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.
...

I feel like the chatter about the halving has already started. Feels like early-mid 2012 in that regard.

June 2016 still a way off.
However, Namecoin is halving tomorrow which might produce an interesting market reaction (or not :-)

[sickpig]

"Chinese banks are haemorrhaging their deposits ..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-14/forget-the-toaster-chinese-bank-offers-mercedes-to-get-deposits.html

and even a russian bank seems to use the same technique:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/c1-bank-brings-back-its-1-million-mercedes-benz-cd-just-in-time-for-the-holidays-300002192.html


edit: fix grammar

[sickpig]

cypher it seems another one has joined your side

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/544494460294680576

[cypherdoc]

cypher it seems another one has joined your side

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/544494460294680576

I wish. From the comments by Adam:

We can't rely on Bob not to spam the blockchain (to the point of disrupting service) using a bazillion Bob coins, each of zero market value, therefore the only answer is that transaction fees must remain in bitcoin to use the bitcoin blockchain (or sidechains denominated in bitcoin).