[XMR] Monero Speculation

[saddambitcoin]

Shit, OK.  Last Linux post this time, for real for real.  
  
I just read about Tails on Wikipedia.  That would seem to be the best Distro for Monero paranoids, right?  
  
Wait, I'm a huge goober.  I just realized that's a 32-bit OS, right?    
  
That means I can't compile and run Monero, since it requires a 64-bit machine, right?.  BAH HUMBUG.  I'll just have to wait it looks like until the database work is done and a 32-bit version is released, or I'll have to bump up to a 64-bit laptop.  

I used to boot from Tails with a live disc and use a local copy of bitaddress.org to generate paper bitcoin wallets. Never had any problems.

You could do the same with moneroaddress.org to generate your address - its all done in your browser so you don't need to connect to any network - just write down your wallet seed.

I also suggest testing your storage methods first with a small amount to get some confidence restoring wallets from the deterministic seed. Find a few places to safely store copies, digital and paper.

[s1gs3gv]

A few short questions about the project:

1) Looking at the design and development goals for monero at https://getmonero.org/design-goals/, what is the rationale for using zeroMQ for RPC ?

2) How is ongoing development financed ?

3) What processes are used to define the design goals and prioritize them ?

4) Should a need arise to change the POW algo because, for example, someone introduces a CryptoNight FPGA or ASIC device, what process would the monero community and/or the development team use to pick a new algorithm and schedule its introduction ?

5) Are there estimated dates for the completion of these goals ?

[smooth]

A few short questions about the project:

1) Looking at the design and development goals for monero at https://getmonero.org/design-goals/, what is the rationale for using zeroMQ for RPC ?

2) How is ongoing development financed ?

3) What processes are used to define the design goals and prioritize them ?

4) Should a need arise to change the POW algo because, for example, someone introduces a CryptoNight FPGA or ASIC device, what process would the monero community and/or the development team use to pick a new algorithm and schedule its introduction ?

5) Are there estimated dates for the completion of these goals ?

I think this is better discussed on the main thread, or the official forum (forum.getmonero.org). I'm not sure how many of the other members of the core team or contributing developers even read this thread.

Of course once that discussion takes place the answers may be relevant to speculators and investors in which case they can be cross posted here.

[s1gs3gv]

Arch is my distro of choice but for a noobie I'd recommend Mint or Elementary OS.  The first would be easy for a Windows user to migrate to, is mostly Ubuntu based, and exceedingly stable.  The second is less mature, it's purely Ubuntu based and more mac like in its ui.  Both would be easy to use.

He might also consider vagrant/virtualbox with a mint vm if he doesn't have a spare box.

[smooth]

Shit, OK.  Last Linux post this time, for real for real. 
 
I just read about Tails on Wikipedia.  That would seem to be the best Distro for Monero paranoids, right? 
 
Wait, I'm a huge goober.  I just realized that's a 32-bit OS, right?     
 
That means I can't compile and run Monero, since it requires a 64-bit machine, right?.  BAH HUMBUG.  I'll just have to wait it looks like until the database work is done and a 32-bit version is released, or I'll have to bump up to a 64-bit laptop. 
 
 
 
double edit: Ahhhh, I'm a moron.  The processor is a Intel® Celeron® Processor N2840 which is 64-bit.  I had no idea they made 64-bit processors under the Celeron name.  Wow.  Ok, I guess I *am* in business.  Cool!

I was told by someone recently that tails does support 64 bit machines. This seems to agree: https://tails.boum.org/support/faq/index.en.html#index6h2

Also, the latest source version from github does not require 64 bit in theory. It works on 32 bit for the most part but there may be some issues. I recommend sticking with 64 bit if your processor supports it.
 

[s1gs3gv]

A few short questions about the project:

I think this is better discussed on the main thread

Thanks for the advice. Done. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg12056693#msg12056693

[aminorex]

I am between you and the rest of the community as my IQ is only 106 when I measured it 1 or 2 ago with MENSA's test. However, I am able to study in university of Helsinki at the faculty that rejects over 90 % of the appliciants.

Smartest man I ever worked with was Feynman.  His tested IQ was 125 -- far lower than my own.  Naturally I have  healthy skepticism about the ability of Weschler tests to compact infinite-dimensional mind into a positive bounded integer.  Stupid is as stupid does.

[iCEBREAKER]

Shit, OK.  Last Linux post this time, for real for real. 
 
I just read about Tails on Wikipedia.  That would seem to be the best Distro for Monero paranoids, right? 
 
Wait, I'm a huge goober.  I just realized that's a 32-bit OS, right?     
 
That means I can't compile and run Monero, since it requires a 64-bit machine, right?.  BAH HUMBUG.  I'll just have to wait it looks like until the database work is done and a 32-bit version is released, or I'll have to bump up to a 64-bit laptop. 
 
 
 
double edit: Ahhhh, I'm a moron.  The processor is a Intel® Celeron® Processor N2840 which is 64-bit.  I had no idea they made 64-bit processors under the Celeron name.  Wow.  Ok, I guess I *am* in business.  Cool!

I was told by someone recently that tails does support 64 bit machines. This seems to agree: https://tails.boum.org/support/faq/index.en.html#index6h2

Also, the latest source version from github does not require 64 bit in theory. It works on 32 bit for the most part but there may be some issues. I recommend sticking with 64 bit if your processor supports it.

Qubes supports 64 bit out of the box: https://www.qubes-os.org/doc/QubesDownloads/

[aminorex]

... harassed ...

Sadly the hard drive with my keys was lost in a boating accident. All I have left to show is a couple of hundred on my (fully validated) poloniex account.  So naturally I will be a dip buyer again.

[iCEBREAKER]

I think that, just like bitcoin's early days, if/when Monero crests $20 each and $50 each we are all going to face a rainbow of conflicted emotions. 
 
Those who sold any Monero earlier will regret it horribly, and those who hold heavy amounts will be faced with a mother of difficult decisions...  You are worth a million dollars now.... you would probably crash the market if you ever tried to sell all your Monero, but all of it is worth just over a million dollars.  What the hell should you do?  Keep holding?  Sell 1/10th and buy a toy or two?  Buy *more*? 
 
Just imagine how silly those who sold at $20 and $50 (with bitcoin) felt when they saw prices near $1000 each?  And I'm guessing, but just imagine if the dream of $10k and $100k coins comes true.  The crucial difference in these assets is theoretically the bubble never has to pop; if a transactional economy emerges with them and they go on to become an internet reserve or a national reserve currency then your bags won't be worth millions, they'll be worth billions. 
 
Enough to make a paltry $100k profit look like spare change.  Seriously: here in Cali that won't even buy a house you'd want to live in. 
 
 
 
Me?  I'll probably acquire all I can at sub-$10 prices.  Then I'll wait.  I've risked tens of thousands of dollars before and lost; it hurts, but you eventually dust yourself off and try to learn from the experience. 
 
I know you might think I'm a fool if I plan to buy more even if the price goes 10x from what it is now, but I'm not in this for a BBQCoin one year pump.  Monero also isn't some stock where you take 20% gains and walk away.  For me this is a world-changing technology, albeit one that is powered by greed and value.  It would be nice to own a Winklevoss 1% by the time this goes exponential, but that's a long way away from my current position, we will see.  I need to hurry up and get this book out the door, and sell it exclusively for Monero.    
 
I'm too late to be the first book sold just for bitcoin, but I don't think there's been an exclusive XMR book yet.

I wish I had known about Amara's Law four years ago, as I enthusiastically threw cheap early BTC at anything that would accept them.   

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

I won't (ie will try not to) make that exorbitantly expensive mistake again.   

PS What was the name of the "Law" recently discussed which (roughly) states 'The longer something succeeds/remains viable, the longer it tends to succeed/remain viable?'  It made a good point about technological/economic inertia, as in the US telephone system, which also gave us hope as Monero celebrated its first birthday.  The inverse was 'the longer something doesn't fail, the less likely it will fail in the future.'

[smooth]

PS What was the name of the "Law" recently discussed which (roughly) states 'The longer something succeeds/remains viable, the longer it tends to succeed/remain viable?'  It made a good point about technological/economic inertia, as in the US telephone system, which also gave us hope as Monero celebrated its first birthday.  The inverse was 'the longer something doesn't fail, the less likely it will fail in the future.'

I don't know the name of it but Taleb discusses it quite a bit in Antifragile I believe. He adds that a reasonable (rough of course) estimate of how long something will last is how long it has been around already.

If you apply that to, for example, fiat money, it makes the big-bang scenarios where we wake up one day and Bitcoin/crypto just takes over appear quite unlikely. More likely is that disruption proceeds slowly and below the radar in markets that fiat money doesn't serve very well.

[smfuser]

PS What was the name of the "Law" recently discussed which (roughly) states 'The longer something succeeds/remains viable, the longer it tends to succeed/remain viable?'  It made a good point about technological/economic inertia, as in the US telephone system, which also gave us hope as Monero celebrated its first birthday.  The inverse was 'the longer something doesn't fail, the less likely it will fail in the future.'

You're probably referring to the Lindy effect.

[smooth]

PS What was the name of the "Law" recently discussed which (roughly) states 'The longer something succeeds/remains viable, the longer it tends to succeed/remain viable?'  It made a good point about technological/economic inertia, as in the US telephone system, which also gave us hope as Monero celebrated its first birthday.  The inverse was 'the longer something doesn't fail, the less likely it will fail in the future.'

You're probably referring to the Lindy effect.

Yes that's the one.

[iCEBREAKER]

PS What was the name of the "Law" recently discussed which (roughly) states 'The longer something succeeds/remains viable, the longer it tends to succeed/remain viable?'  It made a good point about technological/economic inertia, as in the US telephone system, which also gave us hope as Monero celebrated its first birthday.  The inverse was 'the longer something doesn't fail, the less likely it will fail in the future.'

I don't know the name of it but Taleb discusses it quite a bit in Antifragile I believe. He adds that a reasonable (rough of course) estimate of how long something will last is how long it has been still around.

If you apply that to, for example, fiat money, it makes the big-bang scenarios where we wake up one day and Bitcoin/crypto just takes over appear quite unlikely. More likely is that disruption proceeds slowly and below the radar in markets that fiat money doesn't serve very well.

Yes that was it, thanks for the reminder!  Taleb is so smart, he's explained higher mortality rates for infants and children at the cybernetic level, whether the subject is restaurants (most fail in the first year), offspring, or altcoins.

Monetary disruption appears to move tectonically, in fits and spurts, as it scales from particular instances of fiat (Reichsmark LOL!) to fiat as an institution.  Of course these black swans/earthquakes are only cumulative/iterated effects of the incremental proceedings you mention, when the system jumps (through chaos) from a depleted basin of attraction to the fresh next, presumably lower (notwithstanding variance, YMMV) energy level.

(This process continues until the Ultimate Observer disrupts the false vacuum.  Getting in the way seems pointless and silly, except for all the drama and lulz produced therein.)

Here's a scary thought: is the fiat meme antifragile?    The gold/silver meme certainly appears to be...  

I think thermodynamics are on our side.  Maintaining petro-fiat hegemony simply takes more energy than the easier (more efficient) crypto alternative.  Similarly, transparent Bitcoin tx incur (for some purposes) higher costs than Monero's, because privacy and risk capital are by default valuable.

[iCEBREAKER]

You're probably referring to the Lindy effect.

Bing!  Winner!  Thanks, PM with XMR address if you want a present on Halving Day!

[kazuki49]

PS What was the name of the "Law" recently discussed which (roughly) states 'The longer something succeeds/remains viable, the longer it tends to succeed/remain viable?'  It made a good point about technological/economic inertia, as in the US telephone system, which also gave us hope as Monero celebrated its first birthday.  The inverse was 'the longer something doesn't fail, the less likely it will fail in the future.'

You're probably referring to the Lindy effect.

Yes that's the one.

This is why my expectations are conservative (I don't see Monero surpassing $100 in less than 5 years) but thanks to the sheer force of it being alive with a strong foundation (honest launching and good tech), it should eventually get there.

[americanpegasus]

(THERE ARE MANY PICTURES IN THIS POST, PLEASE DON'T QUOTE IT AND CLOG UP THE THREAD)

I think there is another quality we are all forgetting when it comes to money. 
 
You joined Facebook when all your friends were on it and you could deny it no longer.  Reddit adoption was probably a little more intense because of the ability to join multiple special interest groups.  But with both of these phenomenons if you didn't join, you were simply missing content and entertainment.  You didn't feel the sting of missing out on exponential potential profits. 
 
We have seen again and again through history that people don't slowly and fairly price assets.... This is my bubble theory, and here's what seems to happen again and again through history: 
 
1.) A new asset comes onto the scene. 
2.) It carries certain technical merit, which will improve everyone's lives to a certain degree if mass adopted.  (can be minor or significant) 
3.) This drives hype.  The hype creates an initial lift off that propels the price way beyond what it should be. 
4.) Then we see a crash. 
5.) This is the valley of adoption where everyone's expectations got ahead of them, the technology still needed to mature, and the innovators and early adopters sold to the foolhardy lemmings rushing into a "sure thing".  Remember when idiots were getting second mortgages and clearing out their savings to buy bitcoins at $800 because "it only goes up" and they were going to miss out on incredible gains? 
6.) There is an irrational amount of hate regarding the crashed asset at this point. 
7.) This is key:  IF there is long-range technical promise to the asset, it will recover from it's bubble and slowly gain steam again. 
8.) If there is significant possible growth remaining in the asset/technology, it will undergo another bubble cycle, even bigger than before. 
 
Rinse and repeat until maturity, with the price oscillating until it finds a stable and mature equilibrium. 
 

 
     

 
 
   
(No long term technical prospects for this one... the bubble died) 
 
 
 
And on and on and on. 
 
We will be no different.  Why would be we be different than every other financial asset that has EVER come before us when it's the same humans doing the speculating? 
 
You want to know what the next 20 years of Monero price history will look like, assuming we are successful long term?  The exact dates are impossible to predict, but the shape sure isn't: 
 
[SPOILER ALART] 
 
 
 
Hold onto your butts. 

[americanpegasus]

Here, because I know you all want to play along at home (yes, even you nutildah): 
 

[dnaleor]

Here, because I know you all want to play along at home (yes, even you nutildah): 
 

[dEBRUYNE]

... harassed ...

Sadly the hard drive with my keys was lost in a boating accident. All I have left to show is a couple of hundred on my (fully validated) poloniex account.  So naturally I will be a dip buyer again.

You're telling us you didn't make any backups?