[XMR] Monero Speculation

[dreamspark]

Dude, I have probably traded more XMR in Poloniex than you. I am saying that there are certain practical limits for entering/exiting a position and one is that if you don't normally have trading volume, and suddenly want to buy/sell a higher % of the daily volume than 5%, it affects the price. You can try it safely any time by deciding a 2-week period, and trying to buy/sell 70,000 XMR at a better price than the weighted average during the time.

You can't do it.

As for the rest of my post, I am trying to bring the voice of reason and introduce scenarios that have let's say at least a 50% chance of actually having happened last summer. The others can bring in the theoretical edge cases, if that's their speciality.

Of that I have no doubt. But hang on I thought you didn't sell any

In general and weighted over 2 weeks I agree with you. During the 1000btc volume days however it certainly was possible to exit 5% of the daily volume over the weighted average for that day. I've done it!

And it is irrefutable that it was possible to sell more than 6k XMR over 0.00865, again I did it. The average is not weighted by volume. 99% of the daily volume could have been at 0.009 and above. With a daily candlestick it is not possible to tell, it is only possible to tell what the average price on that day was, the open, close, highs and lows.

[luigi1111]

The point being made was nobody's made any real money out of XMR 2x $100,000? 90% of the posters here drool over the thought of that much money.

100k-200k is nothing if we truly understand the scope of technology we are talking about.

I guess this is one of the key points. Hopefully we'll look back and laugh about a handful of people making a few 100k. My issue is just with propagating this idea that there hasnt been some 'big' (depending on your definition of big) money already been made with this coin.

I think it's pretty generally agreeable that "big money" (with the backdrop of BTC and LTC) does not describe Monero. You're basically saying with near perfect trading (or you were dga/pttx) you could've made, say, 100-200k USD. Very very few people could've actually done what you describe, as the market is so small still.

In "success" stories (they've not nearly succeeded yet) such as BTC and LTC, multiple people made millions. We're talking ~1 billion+ market caps that came out of almost nothing. Monero's highest market cap was what, 7-8 million? It also started with a higher market cap because of the alt-boom going on at the time.

Anyway, congrats on your profitable trading.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Dude, I have probably traded more XMR in Poloniex than you. I am saying that there are certain practical limits for entering/exiting a position and one is that if you don't normally have trading volume, and suddenly want to buy/sell a higher % of the daily volume than 5%, it affects the price. You can try it safely any time by deciding a 2-week period, and trying to buy/sell 70,000 XMR at a better price than the weighted average during the time.

You can't do it.

As for the rest of my post, I am trying to bring the voice of reason and introduce scenarios that have let's say at least a 50% chance of actually having happened last summer. The others can bring in the theoretical edge cases, if that's their speciality.

Of that I have no doubt. But hang on I thought you didn't sell any

In general and weighted over 2 weeks I agree with you. During the 1000btc volume days however it certainly was possible to exit 5% of the daily volume over the weighted average for that day. I've done it!

And it is irrefutable that it was possible to sell more than 6k XMR over 0.00865, again I did it. The average is not weighted by volume. 99% of the daily volume could have been at 0.009 and above. With a daily candlestick it is not possible to tell, it is only possible to tell what the average price on that day was, the open, close, highs and lows.

He sold at 0.0058.

[TrueCryptonaire]

XMR liquidity in the Poloniex exchange is low. I need to make some high-volume trades for a client who requires public record of the transactions. So how about we all slowly gather to Poloniex, and are ready with our XMR so that the trades can happen?!

When are you planning to do it? My ask price of coins that I am swing trading goes up 5 % on every Friday.

[smooth]

People were buying AND MINING a lot lower than 0.0022 for a significant period of time. Lets also not forget there was a chance to 2x - 3x your money during 2-4 swings between 0.001 and 0.002 and 2 swings between 0.003 and 0.008.

The original comment was not talking about 2x-3x.

Looking at the all time price chart the other day I realized that no one has really made any money on Monero yet...  Well, not crazy 10x or 100x money.

And it's true. For comparison look at the all time price chart of BTC, even today with BTC being down 75% from the peak. It's still up 100x from early prices.

Maybe there is some brilliant or lucky trader who managed to string together some 2x-3x swings with no losses and turn it into a 10x. That's still not 100x...

Likewise it was asked if early miners made 10x-100x. Very few did, and only on a few coins. The ec2 whales you were talking about, by your numbers, barely made 2x. Even if that turns out to be a bit low, it's not 100x.

[americanpegasus]

I think that, just like bitcoin's early days, if/when Monero crests $20 each and $50 each we are all going to face a rainbow of conflicted emotions. 
 
Those who sold any Monero earlier will regret it horribly, and those who hold heavy amounts will be faced with a mother of difficult decisions...  You are worth a million dollars now.... you would probably crash the market if you ever tried to sell all your Monero, but all of it is worth just over a million dollars.  What the hell should you do?  Keep holding?  Sell 1/10th and buy a toy or two?  Buy *more*? 
 
Just imagine how silly those who sold at $20 and $50 (with bitcoin) felt when they saw prices near $1000 each?  And I'm guessing, but just imagine if the dream of $10k and $100k coins comes true.  The crucial difference in these assets is theoretically the bubble never has to pop; if a transactional economy emerges with them and they go on to become an internet reserve or a national reserve currency then your bags won't be worth millions, they'll be worth billions. 
 
Enough to make a paltry $100k profit look like spare change.  Seriously: here in Cali that won't even buy a house you'd want to live in. 
 
 
 
Me?  I'll probably acquire all I can at sub-$10 prices.  Then I'll wait.  I've risked tens of thousands of dollars before and lost; it hurts, but you eventually dust yourself off and try to learn from the experience. 
 
I know you might think I'm a fool if I plan to buy more even if the price goes 10x from what it is now, but I'm not in this for a BBQCoin one year pump.  Monero also isn't some stock where you take 20% gains and walk away.  For me this is a world-changing technology, albeit one that is powered by greed and value.  It would be nice to own a Winklevoss 1% by the time this goes exponential, but that's a long way away from my current position, we will see.  I need to hurry up and get this book out the door, and sell it exclusively for Monero.    
 
I'm too late to be the first book sold just for bitcoin, but I don't think there's been an exclusive XMR book yet.
 

 

[dreamspark]

People were buying AND MINING a lot lower than 0.0022 for a significant period of time. Lets also not forget there was a chance to 2x - 3x your money during 2-4 swings between 0.001 and 0.002 and 2 swings between 0.003 and 0.008.

The original comment was not talking about 2x-3x.

Looking at the all time price chart the other day I realized that no one has really made any money on Monero yet...  Well, not crazy 10x or 100x money.

And it's true. For comparison look at the all time price chart of BTC, even today with BTC being down 75% from the peak. It's still up 100x from early prices.

Maybe there is some brilliant or lucky trader who managed to string together some 2x-3x swings with no losses and turn it into a 10x. That's still not 100x...

Likewise it was asked if early miners made 10x-100x. Very few did, and only on a few coins. The ec2 whales you were talking about, by your numbers, barely made 2x. Even if that turns out to be a bit low, it's not 100x.

We''ll leave it there, we're beating a dead horse. My original point was just that several people have made good money out of XMR, the sorts of figures that many of the current holders would love to make.

One thing that been discounted nice and quietly are the botnet/sys admins. They're certainly x100 their investment

[americanpegasus]

I also know that Hal Finney (rest in peace) got harassed pretty nasty in his later years because it was widely known he was one of the first bitcoiners.  I can just imagine that if Monero does go to 1000x or 10,000x (much less further) of it's current price there will be more than one black hat combing through these logs and going,  
  
 
  
"Pegasus?  I'm proud of him.  Now let's go rob that mother #%*&@."  
  
So I appreciate all the security recommendations from the other official thread; I'll be following most of them (including installing Linux and generating some secure cold wallets).  Also, I'll probably eventually need to move out of this low-rent trailer park at some point to something with a little more security.  
  

[TrueCryptonaire]

We saw 1000 usd btc price thanks to manipulation. Otherwise probably we would be around here at the peak.
However I agree with Americanpegasus that XMR need never to go down.
It is possible to achieve by having bigger community that is able to suck all the coins that are trading 1-2 % dumps + some more acquiring.
When the economy matures, there will be people acquiring Moneros via working which creates value for the coin and helps thus the marketcap (assuming of course Moneros will not be dumped immediately after receiving when the value net effect is close to +/-0). The other way to increase the market cap besides people working to get salaries in XMR is to do business and take at least the proceedings in XMR.
Now we are very early state when the most value is created by bagholders who buys coins, store them into the deep-frozen storage unit for minimum 10 yrs.

Imagine if only 0.1 % of all Moneros will be in circulation and the new adopters will need to compete for those coins, and those are the only coins people spend on toys - that would be just enough and the price of Monero will go up up and up which encourages even more hoarding (just like gold bullion used to be in barbaric era when it was used as money before they invented fractional reserve banking and took the connection of gold and money away).

[dEBRUYNE]

Is it just me or this community getting slightly stupider?

Monero has a great reputation of being comprised mostly of geniuses, nerds and political freethinkers (whereas Dash on the other hand has a reputation of being comprised mostly of pot-smoking retards.)

I guess it is true that as Monero becomes more widespread, then more mainstream elements will inevitably permeate, bringing down the overall IQ of the community.

But seriously though, might we try not to rush it?

Also, I speculate that XMR will be aggressively dumped as the price quadruples - a good thing. Else in 4 years from now, people will not want to buy into XMR because of the 'knowledge' that it is mostly comprised of huge whales that could dump the price at any moment - a phenomenon that by then is known as "Satoshi's Dump."

Monero has the advantage that, unlike with Bitcoin, you can't track the blockchain for incoming deposits at exchanges nor measure the amount of Bitcoin days destroyed. I've witnessed multiple occasions where people started dumping based on Bitcoin days destroyed.

EDIT: Regarding the IQ part, I haven't really seen new community members enter that are significantly more stupid than the current community members. Bear in mind that people might be smart in general, but have limited knowledge about tech for example and thus need help setting up their wallets or mining.

[americanpegasus]

Is it just me or this community getting slightly stupider?

Monero has a great reputation of being comprised mostly of geniuses, nerds and political freethinkers (whereas Dash on the other hand has a reputation of being comprised mostly of pot-smoking retards.)

I guess it is true that as Monero becomes more widespread, then more mainstream elements will inevitably permeate, bringing down the overall IQ of the community.

But seriously though, might we try not to rush it?

Also, I speculate that XMR will be aggressively dumped as the price quadruples - a good thing. Else in 4 years from now, people will not want to buy into XMR because of the 'knowledge' that it is mostly comprised of huge whales that could dump the price at any moment - a phenomenon that by then is known as "Satoshi's Dump."

 
  
The community is comprised predominantly of many individuals with IQs that range from 150 and 210.  
  
Nevertheless, the moment I joined it, the average IQ suddenly became 84.  I'm not sure how that happened, but you can't argue with math.  
  
Also, I believe any new cryptocurrency will experience a Satoshi's Dump scenario.... you aren't going to get the whole world to agree on a set cryptocurrency to all begin mining at the same time in a truly free market.  There will always be competition and some people will see the winner before others.  As was said (I believe) a long way back in this thread: If you're idea of being rich is a garage full of exotic autos, and throwing money out of your private 777, please speculate with other coins.  Because unlike them, Monero may actually make you rich and it would be nice to have a responsible and philanthropic 0.1% for a change.  
  
The threat of Satoshi's Millions isn't a threat because just like you don't worry about billionaire's "dumping" their fiat (yet, lol), by the time Monero gets big enough to matter there isn't going to be a threat of the early speculator's dumping out of Monero.... because they will be able to transact entirely in it.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Is it just me or this community getting slightly stupider?

Monero has a great reputation of being comprised mostly of geniuses, nerds and political freethinkers (whereas Dash on the other hand has a reputation of being comprised mostly of pot-smoking retards.)

I guess it is true that as Monero becomes more widespread, then more mainstream elements will inevitably permeate, bringing down the overall IQ of the community.

But seriously though, might we try not to rush it?

Also, I speculate that XMR will be aggressively dumped as the price quadruples - a good thing. Else in 4 years from now, people will not want to buy into XMR because of the 'knowledge' that it is mostly comprised of huge whales that could dump the price at any moment - a phenomenon that by then is known as "Satoshi's Dump."

 
  
The community is comprised predominantly of many individuals with IQs that range from 150 and 210.  
  
Nevertheless, the moment I joined it, the average IQ suddenly became 84.  I'm not sure how that happened, but you can't argue with math.  
  
Also, I believe any new cryptocurrency will experience a Satoshi's Dump scenario.... you aren't going to get the whole world to agree on a set cryptocurrency to all begin mining at the same time in a truly free market.  There will always be competition and some people will see the winner before others.  As was said (I believe) a long way back in this thread: If you're idea of being rich is a garage full of exotic autos, and throwing money out of your private 777, please speculate with other coins.  Because unlike them, Monero may actually make you rich and it would be nice to have a responsible and philanthropic 0.1% for a change.  
  
The threat of Satoshi's Millions isn't a threat because just like you don't worry about billionaire's "dumping" their fiat (yet, lol), by the time Monero gets big enough to matter there isn't going to be a threat of the early speculator's dumping out of Monero.... because they will be able to transact entirely in it.

I am between you and the rest of the community as my IQ is only 106 when I measured it 1 or 2 ago with MENSA's test. However, I am able to study in university of Helsinki at the faculty that rejects over 90 % of the appliciants.

[rpietila]

The average is not weighted by volume. 99% of the daily volume could have been at 0.009 and above. With a daily candlestick it is not possible to tell, it is only possible to tell what the average price on that day was, the open, close, highs and lows.

The daily volume is published in BTC, and in XMR, and you can therefore divide one by the other and prove yourself incorrect 

[futureofbitcoin]

Too bad the average IQ of the applicants is 73, TC :p

I wonder what's the ratio of ownership between shorter term traders and longer term speculators for XMR. I don't think there are any people who own it just for the ideal yet.

[rpietila]

XMR liquidity in the Poloniex exchange is low. I need to make some high-volume trades for a client who requires public record of the transactions. So how about we all slowly gather to Poloniex, and are ready with our XMR so that the trades can happen?!

When are you planning to do it? My ask price of coins that I am swing trading goes up 5 % on every Friday.

It is possible that the wall at 0.002 is mine and wants to acquire more coinX. So please dump into it and if you have more, ask for a bigger wall!

[TrueCryptonaire]

XMR liquidity in the Poloniex exchange is low. I need to make some high-volume trades for a client who requires public record of the transactions. So how about we all slowly gather to Poloniex, and are ready with our XMR so that the trades can happen?!

When are you planning to do it? My ask price of coins that I am swing trading goes up 5 % on every Friday.

It is possible that the wall at 0.002 is mine and wants to acquire more coinX. So please dump into it and if you have more, ask for a bigger wall!

Unfortunately you need to significiantly rise it, and my intention at least now is not to dump even my trading position.
The idea of trading is to make money, not to lose it. 
And these prices the sells are pretty modest (only in hundreds of coins) and as long as we are under my selling zone I am buying daily also.

[hodlmybtc]

XMR liquidity in the Poloniex exchange is low. I need to make some high-volume trades for a client who requires public record of the transactions. So how about we all slowly gather to Poloniex, and are ready with our XMR so that the trades can happen?!

When are you planning to do it? My ask price of coins that I am swing trading goes up 5 % on every Friday.

It is possible that the wall at 0.002 is mine and wants to acquire more coinX. So please dump into it and if you have more, ask for a bigger wall!

This is good, we need to fill up the bid side some more, yesterday the bid side was looking weak af, only like 130 BTC.

It seems most people are market buying only get dumped on later, just place some buy orders a little below the price and they're almost guaranteed to be filled within 1 day.

[rpietila]

We are in an uptrend, but the trend is only going slowly. The next peak should be 230ish, a week from now. Strange that the trend is not yet confirmed so that we would break out of the channel. Not a big deal though, I like scooping up coins for the clients. I feel that there is no urge for the price to rise in the markets but also no much dumps.

Check out CKG as well. It has reclaimed the ATH set 3 days ago and may break out itself. saddambitcoin can help you invest.

[americanpegasus]

Too bad the average IQ of the applicants is 73, TC :p

I wonder what's the ratio of ownership between shorter term traders and longer term speculators for XMR. I don't think there are any people who own it just for the ideal yet.

 
 

[smooth]

Off topic and personal insults, are out of bounds. Deleted