[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

Which actually leads me to believe that non-cryptographic, unattackable solutions such as CK would have some merit.

Either you are terribly naive about it, or worse. It is not even close to unattackable, and I am at a loss why you would think it might be. Either explain this in a non handwavy fashion (ie, the "if it gets corrupted, people can recreate it from memory" leap of faith), or stop claiming it is unattackable.

It takes time to understand what exactly is the aim, and why such a low-tech solution as CK does indeed have advantages over hypertech solutions such as XMR.

The aim can be described as follows: the state of the world needs to be incorruptible and the transfers uninfringeable. Bitcoin aims to achieve these by public blockchain and miner consensus. CK has public DB state and community consensus. It can be debated which one is better and in which way, but when the going gets rough (let's say Internet as we know it, dies), I would bet on CK to survive since it has more meat in the community than Bitcoin. It is hard to explain why I believe this, especially if you knew how high level guys are just sitting next to me, but luckily we have no reason to choose just one - I have invested (in descending order) into BTC, XMR and CK, which gives the confidence that if 1-2 of them bite the dust, the going is so rough that the remaining one will certainly increase in value so much as to recoup the losses anyway

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[rangedriver]

In this universe 0 and 1 don't exist.  
  
The concept of "0" existed a long time ago, but it quickly broke down into the complex and irrational universe you see around you. Occasionally a region of our reality gets so close to the value of "1" that we don't understand what happens close to it, but it is debatable whether or not it is truly equivalent to "1" or not.

But in order for this flawed premise to be true: for something to be unattackable, it would have to be perfect and pure....a one or zero, and this will never happen.

Cogito Ergo Sum = 1.

[rpietila]

But in order for this flawed premise to be true: for something to be unattackable, it would have to be perfect and pure....a one or zero, and this will never happen.

Cogito Ergo Sum = 1.

We are actually in the heart of CK here.. it's all about constructing a virtual entity which has an indestructible consensus on who owns what - provided by the transparency, which is not a technology and thus cannot be compromised as easily.

How do you make people unbelieve that 2 + 2 = 4? Well it's really difficult.

[Melbustus]

First of all, I never said "safe". Just that after working for a while, people would tend to not worry about it.

That's kind of true for a highly leveraged debt based system too. It took several years post-2008, but most now ignore systemic risks, or deny they even exist at all.

So I agree with you that many will behave that way in practice, but I also believe there is a role to play for systems built on a stronger foundation.

if the best argument against Zerocoin adoption vs Monero adoption in the privacy-coin niche is that ZC uses new crypto

That is a massive issue though (even if many people may ignore it). In cryptography the only thing that makes most real systems secure is that they have been around for a long time and vulnerabilities have been either identified and fixed or unable to be found. It is essentially impossible for new crypto to be usefully secure. 10 years is a widely recognized rule-of-thumb aging period. The key components of zerocash are far newer than that.

This is not just an issue of privacy either. If the system breaks there could be huge or total monetary losses.

Understood, but you have to view that risk in the context of the rest of the risks in any crypto-coin system. A break of the underlying crypto seems down the list relative to other (probably more likely) failure scenarios that can be equally catastrophic from an investment standpoint.

[nioc]

How long is the twice a minute ~2 XMR sell bot going to run on Polo?  It also ran simultaneously on Bittrex for a while yesterday.

[equipoise]

How long is the twice a minute ~2 XMR sell bot going to run on Polo?  It also ran simultaneously on Bittrex for a while yesterday.

As far as I remember the last time it worked about 2 days, then stop for 24 hours and then another 1 day (if it's the same bot and the same strategy).

[smooth]

First of all, I never said "safe". Just that after working for a while, people would tend to not worry about it.

That's kind of true for a highly leveraged debt based system too. It took several years post-2008, but most now ignore systemic risks, or deny they even exist at all.

So I agree with you that many will behave that way in practice, but I also believe there is a role to play for systems built on a stronger foundation.

if the best argument against Zerocoin adoption vs Monero adoption in the privacy-coin niche is that ZC uses new crypto

That is a massive issue though (even if many people may ignore it). In cryptography the only thing that makes most real systems secure is that they have been around for a long time and vulnerabilities have been either identified and fixed or unable to be found. It is essentially impossible for new crypto to be usefully secure. 10 years is a widely recognized rule-of-thumb aging period. The key components of zerocash are far newer than that.

This is not just an issue of privacy either. If the system breaks there could be huge or total monetary losses.

Understood, but you have to view that risk in the context of the rest of the risks in any crypto-coin system. A break of the underlying crypto seems down the list relative to other (probably more likely) failure scenarios that can be equally catastrophic from an investment standpoint.

I think you are extrapolating from the experience with cryptocurrencies using mature cryptography. Also for the most part other than Cryptonote (only slightly different) they all use essentially the same cryptography, which means none of them are going to break unless they all break. We of course now know from experience that they haven't broken, but this wasn't guaranteed in advance. Zerocash is using completely different cryptography from every other cryptocurrency, and is starting out using cryptography that is far newer and less proven than what Bitcoin used at the start. It is true that estimating the risk of problems with immature cryptography is difficult, but that doesn't necessarily make it small. When it comes to experience here, all bets are off.

But I don't necessarily expect people to respond to these risks correctly; people are in general terrible at that.

[americanpegasus]

But I don't necessarily expect people to respond to these risks correctly; people are in general terrible at that.

 
  
I mean, I might buy a little just to hedge in case I'm wrong, but honestly - this is the first time in history that the integrity of both math and technology directly underpins an entire economy (well besides when paper currency was first introduced).  This isn't HTML5 or Flash that we can laugh about when we find a 'game breaking' bug.  
  
This is supposed to be the foundation for an entire monetary system, and even if it were a public blockchain and failed - that would be disasterous.  The fact that it could theoretically fail and no one would ever be able to know?  It makes it a ridiculous unacceptable risk (even aside from the Genesis keys nonsense).  
  
Monero with confidential transactions features time tested cryptography and is superior to Zerocash.  As a high-level amateur, this is the advice I would give to any serious institution considering making an investment into this fancy new "private blockchain tech" of 2016/2017.  I can't imagine that a more competent mathematician or programmer would advise any differently: "Yeah JP Morgan, so I know you're all hot and bothered by this new ability to write to a blockchain and keep it private, but I strongly recommend you go with this brand new math combined with a brand new implementation we just invented for your billions of dollars worth of accounting / asset holdings."  
  
The only way that happens is if a competent authority comes out with a firm statement that "ECC is completely broken, we have broken it using our new machine and here's the proof, everyone upgrade to this new Quantum-proof method that was created in 2016 or else." and I put the chances of that happening at a very slim percent in the next decade (or two), despite the NSA's recent warning.  Of course, I'm frequently wrong so who knows what will happen.

[dEBRUYNE]

How long is the twice a minute ~2 XMR sell bot going to run on Polo?  It also ran simultaneously on Bittrex for a while yesterday.

As far as I remember the last time it worked about 2 days, then stop for 24 hours and then another 1 day (if it's the same bot and the same strategy).

The previous time it ran it was selling more aggressively, if I recall correctly something like 10-15 XMR a minute, whereas it currently is selling ~5 XMR a minute. Could also be a different guy running it. Bear in mind that dnaleor posted a similiar bot on the forum a few months ago, so everyone could just grab it and run it. I personally don't mind it, rather this than those 10k+ dumps that wipe out all bid support. Furthermore, I think it's probably a miner cashing out and wanting to get the best possible price.

[jwinterm]

Volume way down, under 30 BTC for past couple days on polo, and total bids around 100 BTC on the same. Anyone thinks we're gonna push upwards in next few days? I'm more inclined to believe that someone is gonna pull that wall at 0.00115 and we'll dip below 0.001 in next weekish.

[nioc]

Well I can never predict anything.  Hope that helps  Yes it has been very anemic.  I did buy some at this level with the intention of donating some of it.  First thing will be to help fund MonerMoo's continuing work whenever the funding goes live.

[americanpegasus]

Well I can never predict anything.  Hope that helps  Yes it has been very anemic.  I did buy some at this level with the intention of donating some of it.  First thing will be to help fund MonerMoo's continuing work whenever the funding goes live.

 
  
Yes, hiring MoneroMoo for 25 XMR an hour is a great deal.  I think that the 40 XMR an hour we pay him is drastically less than such technical competence is worth.  I, for one, will also be contributing to the fund to pay MoneroMoo 65 XMR an hour so that his efforts are fairly compensated.  

[XMRpromotions]

Well I can never predict anything.  Hope that helps  Yes it has been very anemic.  I did buy some at this level with the intention of donating some of it.  First thing will be to help fund MonerMoo's continuing work whenever the funding goes live.

 
  
Yes, hiring MoneroMoo for 25 XMR an hour is a great deal.  I think that the 40 XMR an hour we pay him is drastically less than such technical competence is worth.  I, for one, will also be contributing to the fund to pay MoneroMoo 65 XMR an hour so that his efforts are fairly compensated.  

I love the community spirit. Development is essential to the long term success of Monero so it is nice to see the community support our developers.

[dEBRUYNE]

Volume way down, under 30 BTC for past couple days on polo, and total bids around 100 BTC on the same. Anyone thinks we're gonna push upwards in next few days? I'm more inclined to believe that someone is gonna pull that wall at 0.00115 and we'll dip below 0.001 in next weekish.

The wall has been hit twice now without pulling, so I guess it's there to stay. Besides, the bot seems to have stopped.

[LucyLovesCrypto]

Volume way down, under 30 BTC for past couple days on polo, and total bids around 100 BTC on the same. Anyone thinks we're gonna push upwards in next few days? I'm more inclined to believe that someone is gonna pull that wall at 0.00115 and we'll dip below 0.001 in next weekish.

With .9 release coming soon I do not see why that would be likely right now, but in these volatile markets anything can happen.

[SmoothCurves]

Any word on what's up with XMR on Shapeshift.io ?

[saddambitcoin]

I have a BTC -> XMR service ready to go. Soon you will not need to use Shapeshift.io. I anticipate the launch to be within the next 2 weeks.

Prepare for Monerizer.

[RealBitcoin]

I have a BTC -> XMR service ready to go. Soon you will not need to use Shapeshift.io. I anticipate the launch to be within the next 2 weeks.

Prepare for Monerizer.

It is really good to see more and more decentralized exchanges.

Centralized exchange is just so 2011. We need more decentralized exchange so keep the good work up.

[cbeast]

I have a BTC -> XMR service ready to go. Soon you will not need to use Shapeshift.io. I anticipate the launch to be within the next 2 weeks.

Prepare for Monerizer.

If XMR is so great, then why would anyone trade them for bitcoins?

[luigi1111]

I have a BTC -> XMR service ready to go. Soon you will not need to use Shapeshift.io. I anticipate the launch to be within the next 2 weeks.

Prepare for Monerizer.

If XMR is so great, then why would anyone trade them for bitcoins?

I'm not sure what you're getting at. His service goes the opposite way, but maybe that's what you meant.