[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smoothie]

One thing the fuckers could do is forbid any licensed or regulated exchange from allowing trading of any anonymous coins.

Yes I also think it is a "smart" idea to drive all trading to Crypto Kingdom, which is specifically designed for antifragility.

For which reason I don't believe a ban is in the cards.

Their game now is to make people stupider and hate each other. Not so much banning things and enforcing the bans.

Banning crypto (or a type of crypto) gives an unintended validation that monero (assuming we are talking about it being banned) is in fact a worthy threat to financial status quo.

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[othe]

People could always argue that exchanges can always require users to use mixin of 0 when withdrawing and keep all view keys of exchange and amount keys of that exchange open for public audit for TPTB.

Except that with the hardfork whose code is already beeing done there will be a minimum mixin on a protocol level.

[smoothie]

People could always argue that exchanges can always require users to use mixin of 0 when withdrawing and keep all view keys of exchange and amount keys of that exchange open for public audit for TPTB.

Except that with the hardfork whose code is already beeing done there will be a minimum mixin on a protocol level.

lol right i forgot about that...


ok in the next few months then 

[dnaleor]

One thing the fuckers could do is forbid any licensed or regulated exchange from allowing trading of any anonymous coins.

This would be funny because it automatically translates to "all coins being traded are certifiable not anonymous"

about banning anonymous coins:
let them do it, it will draw attention to monero in stead of keeping people away meanwhile exposing that they are afraid of it because it threatens the existence of the state.

Don't do drugs they said, well... people smoke weed more than when it wasn't banned...

[phishead]

One thing the fuckers could do is forbid any licensed or regulated exchange from allowing trading of any anonymous coins.

This would be funny because it automatically translates to "all coins being traded are certifiable not anonymous"

about banning anonymous coins:
let them do it, it will draw attention to monero in stead of keeping people away meanwhile exposing that they are afraid of it because it threatens the existence of the state.

Don't do drugs they said, well... people smoke weed more than when it wasn't banned...

That's actually very true.  To have some sort of controversy surrounding Monero, about "is it too anonymous?", "can government regulate Monero?", "what is this amount, view, private key thing anyway?" will be so good.  I mean especially when regarding to what Smoothie was talking about relating to AP's video he posted... if this were to get on a major news station because of government "banning" it, it will cause people going in a frenzy to find out what it is..

It's just the nature of human beings... people want what they can't have.

[owm123]

One thing the fuckers could do is forbid any licensed or regulated exchange from allowing trading of any anonymous coins.

This would be funny because it automatically translates to "all coins being traded are certifiable not anonymous"

about banning anonymous coins:
let them do it, it will draw attention to monero in stead of keeping people away meanwhile exposing that they are afraid of it because it threatens the existence of the state.

Don't do drugs they said, well... people smoke weed more than when it wasn't banned...

That's actually very true.  To have some sort of controversy surrounding Monero, about "is it too anonymous?", "can government regulate Monero?", "what is this amount, view, private key thing anyway?" will be so good.  I mean especially when regarding to what Smoothie was talking about relating to AP's video he posted... if this were to get on a major news station because of government "banning" it, it will cause people going in a frenzy to find out what it is..

It's just the nature of human beings... people want what they can't have.

Well, you can introduce monero to thailand :-) It was the first country to ban bitcoins (now already unbanned).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/10210022/Bitcoins-banned-in-Thailand.html

[chennan]

Don't take it bad, but this sounds very much like what crapcoins do: focus on the form rather than the content.
I question the effectiveness of your approach in a forum full of competition in terms of shiny bells and whistles.

 
 
But it would also be a mistake to eschew form and flash entirely.  Remember, it's not always the superior technology that wins if something with better marketing usurps it. 
-snip-

I mean, I couldn't agree with you more.  But every time I think of this relationship of between adverting/marketing and technology, I see it as an relationship to Apple vs Windows vs Android... Apple seems to succeed through a type of advertising where it's very elegant and simple at the same time.  Then Android or windows has a superior technology compared to Apple, but you see EVERYONE using Apple products.. because it's simple and pleasing to the eye.

I think there would be a big beneficial factor for Monero if it incorporates both, and what better time to start now?

[ArticMine]

Don't take it bad, but this sounds very much like what crapcoins do: focus on the form rather than the content.
I question the effectiveness of your approach in a forum full of competition in terms of shiny bells and whistles.

 
 
But it would also be a mistake to eschew form and flash entirely.  Remember, it's not always the superior technology that wins if something with better marketing usurps it. 
-snip-

I mean, I couldn't agree with you more.  But every time I think of this relationship of between adverting/marketing and technology, I see it as an relationship to Apple vs Windows vs Android... Apple seems to succeed through a type of advertising where it's very elegant and simple at the same time.  Then Android or windows has a superior technology compared to Apple, but you see EVERYONE using Apple products.. because it's simple and pleasing to the eye.

I think there would be a big beneficial factor for Monero if it incorporates both, and what better time to start now?

Apple is down to 38.58 % of the mobile market and falling vs 53.54% for Android. On the desktop it has 7.72%  vs Microsoft's 90.54% and GNU/Linux's 1.74%. This is a very far cry from EVERYONE. https://netmarketshare.com/. Hype can work for a short time but then the fundamentals take over.

[owm123]

Don't take it bad, but this sounds very much like what crapcoins do: focus on the form rather than the content.
I question the effectiveness of your approach in a forum full of competition in terms of shiny bells and whistles.

 
  
But it would also be a mistake to eschew form and flash entirely.  Remember, it's not always the superior technology that wins if something with better marketing usurps it.  
-snip-

I mean, I couldn't agree with you more.  But every time I think of this relationship of between adverting/marketing and technology, I see it as an relationship to Apple vs Windows vs Android... Apple seems to succeed through a type of advertising where it's very elegant and simple at the same time.  Then Android or windows has a superior technology compared to Apple, but you see EVERYONE using Apple products.. because it's simple and pleasing to the eye.

I think there would be a big beneficial factor for Monero if it incorporates both, and what better time to start now?

But market how and to who? There is already a lot of recent effort in introducing monero to privacy oriented services. for example with tutanota:
https://tutanota.uservoice.com/forums/237921-general/suggestions/9968298-accept-monero-xmr-for-donations

Market what, that there is no gui, nor tools or plugin to websites to make payments or donations such as bitpay? Also people seem to still think that bitcoin is the best payment method for anonymous and private payments: http://txti.es/2015-vpn-providers-and-paying-using-bitcoin

So if bitcion is "the ultimate secure payment source", than why you need monero? block size adaptive? fungability? hardly anyone knows what it is, and even less people care. And these are the problems i see.

[ArticMine]

The first step before we can even dream of marketing anything related to Monero is the tagged release of 0.9.

[generalizethis]

Don't take it bad, but this sounds very much like what crapcoins do: focus on the form rather than the content.
I question the effectiveness of your approach in a forum full of competition in terms of shiny bells and whistles.

 
  
But it would also be a mistake to eschew form and flash entirely.  Remember, it's not always the superior technology that wins if something with better marketing usurps it.  
-snip-

I mean, I couldn't agree with you more.  But every time I think of this relationship of between adverting/marketing and technology, I see it as an relationship to Apple vs Windows vs Android... Apple seems to succeed through a type of advertising where it's very elegant and simple at the same time.  Then Android or windows has a superior technology compared to Apple, but you see EVERYONE using Apple products.. because it's simple and pleasing to the eye.

I think there would be a big beneficial factor for Monero if it incorporates both, and what better time to start now?

But market how and to who? There is already a lot of recent effort in introducing monero to privacy oriented services. for example with tutanota:
https://tutanota.uservoice.com/forums/237921-general/suggestions/9968298-accept-monero-xmr-for-donations

Market what, that there is no gui, nor tools or plugin to websites to make payments or donations such as bitpay? Also people seem to still think that bitcoin is the best payment method for anonymous and private payments: http://txti.es/2015-vpn-providers-and-paying-using-bitcoin

So if bitcion is "the ultimate secure payment source", than why you need monero? block size adaptive? fungability? hardly anyone knows what it is, and even less people care. And these are the problems i see.

Your analysis fails to grasp that the coin must go through the gauntlet of developers (Bitcoin and others), then go to the skill users (dm and finance), before it reaches the shelves of every man.

[owm123]

I mean, I couldn't agree with you more.  But every time I think of this relationship of between adverting/marketing and technology, I see it as an relationship to Apple vs Windows vs Android... Apple seems to succeed through a type of advertising where it's very elegant and simple at the same time.  Then Android or windows has a superior technology compared to Apple, but you see EVERYONE using Apple products.. because it's simple and pleasing to the eye.

I think there would be a big beneficial factor for Monero if it incorporates both, and what better time to start now?

But market how and to who? There is already a lot of recent effort in introducing monero to privacy oriented services. for example with tutanota:
https://tutanota.uservoice.com/forums/237921-general/suggestions/9968298-accept-monero-xmr-for-donations

Market what, that there is no gui, nor tools or plugin to websites to make payments or donations such as bitpay? Also people seem to still think that bitcoin is the best payment method for anonymous and private payments: http://txti.es/2015-vpn-providers-and-paying-using-bitcoin

So if bitcion is "the ultimate secure payment source", than why you need monero? block size adaptive? fungability? hardly anyone knows what it is, and even less people care. And these are the problems i see.

Your analysis fails to grasp that the coin must go through the gauntlet of developers (Bitcoin and others), then go to the skill users (dm and finance), before it reaches the shelves of every man.

Its not analysis, rather an obeservation. Bitcoin is already 6 years old, and its still far from reaching "shelves of every man". So monero is in its infancy in this aspect. But you need to start somewhere sooner or later. Privacy oriented services (not necessary commercial ones), i think, would be good start. Maybe when 0.9 is released or gui, monero will see more recognition and headlines.

[kazuki49]

I mean, I couldn't agree with you more.  But every time I think of this relationship of between adverting/marketing and technology, I see it as an relationship to Apple vs Windows vs Android... Apple seems to succeed through a type of advertising where it's very elegant and simple at the same time.  Then Android or windows has a superior technology compared to Apple, but you see EVERYONE using Apple products.. because it's simple and pleasing to the eye.

I think there would be a big beneficial factor for Monero if it incorporates both, and what better time to start now?

But market how and to who? There is already a lot of recent effort in introducing monero to privacy oriented services. for example with tutanota:
https://tutanota.uservoice.com/forums/237921-general/suggestions/9968298-accept-monero-xmr-for-donations

Market what, that there is no gui, nor tools or plugin to websites to make payments or donations such as bitpay? Also people seem to still think that bitcoin is the best payment method for anonymous and private payments: http://txti.es/2015-vpn-providers-and-paying-using-bitcoin

So if bitcion is "the ultimate secure payment source", than why you need monero? block size adaptive? fungability? hardly anyone knows what it is, and even less people care. And these are the problems i see.

Your analysis fails to grasp that the coin must go through the gauntlet of developers (Bitcoin and others), then go to the skill users (dm and finance), before it reaches the shelves of every man.

Its not analysis, rather an obeservation. Bitcoin is already 6 years old, and its still far from reaching "shelves of every man". So monero is in its infancy in this aspect. But you need to start somewhere sooner or later. Privacy oriented services (not necessary commercial ones), i think, would be good start. Maybe when 0.9 is released or gui, monero will see more recognition and headlines.

heres a great post I found on reddit exactly about this:

The thing is that most Bitcoin infrastructure is running away from killer apps at warp speed, in the whole rush to be AML/KYC compliant. Enough influential people are actually relying on Bitcoin's traceability that the traceability is very unlikely to ever be fixed.
Anonymity and privacy are important in a LOT of places. They mean that a lot more people have access to economic exchange, over a lot more of the world, with a lot fewer gatekeepers saying who can buy and sell and what they can buy and sell. And that's the thing that makes crypto currencies interesting.
But a lot of the gatekeepers are legal authorities with considerable public support on their side. That means that any actually interesting new means of exchange is going to piss off the Man, period. And the well funded players in Bitcoin aren't interested in doing that.
Without the Silk Road et al, which were enabled by very limited anonymity, nobody except a few monetary cranks would ever have given a damn about Bitcoin. But Bitcoin is running away from that.
Furthermore, even in perfectly "legitimate" uses, fungibility is critical, and you don't get fungibility with a traceable currency. So Bitcoin is self-sabotaging even for the cases it's trying to address.
Basically Bitcoin is only covering applications that are already perfectly well served by fiat and banks, leaving all the actual crypto currency applications on the table, and sucking up into a giant Chicago-school delusional ball.
That leaves a vacuum for Monero and other privacy currencies to fill. Once the Bitcoin spying infrastructure is fully in place, a lot of people are going to realize they're unserved by Bitcoin.

I'm always impressed with the posts made by the Monero community on reddit. Now you have to ask yourself if Monero is working towards this objective. At least the github activity says yes.

[smoothie]

I mean, I couldn't agree with you more.  But every time I think of this relationship of between adverting/marketing and technology, I see it as an relationship to Apple vs Windows vs Android... Apple seems to succeed through a type of advertising where it's very elegant and simple at the same time.  Then Android or windows has a superior technology compared to Apple, but you see EVERYONE using Apple products.. because it's simple and pleasing to the eye.

I think there would be a big beneficial factor for Monero if it incorporates both, and what better time to start now?

But market how and to who? There is already a lot of recent effort in introducing monero to privacy oriented services. for example with tutanota:
https://tutanota.uservoice.com/forums/237921-general/suggestions/9968298-accept-monero-xmr-for-donations

Market what, that there is no gui, nor tools or plugin to websites to make payments or donations such as bitpay? Also people seem to still think that bitcoin is the best payment method for anonymous and private payments: http://txti.es/2015-vpn-providers-and-paying-using-bitcoin

So if bitcion is "the ultimate secure payment source", than why you need monero? block size adaptive? fungability? hardly anyone knows what it is, and even less people care. And these are the problems i see.

Your analysis fails to grasp that the coin must go through the gauntlet of developers (Bitcoin and others), then go to the skill users (dm and finance), before it reaches the shelves of every man.

Its not analysis, rather an obeservation. Bitcoin is already 6 years old, and its still far from reaching "shelves of every man". So monero is in its infancy in this aspect. But you need to start somewhere sooner or later. Privacy oriented services (not necessary commercial ones), i think, would be good start. Maybe when 0.9 is released or gui, monero will see more recognition and headlines.

heres a great post I found on reddit exactly about this:

The thing is that most Bitcoin infrastructure is running away from killer apps at warp speed, in the whole rush to be AML/KYC compliant. Enough influential people are actually relying on Bitcoin's traceability that the traceability is very unlikely to ever be fixed.
Anonymity and privacy are important in a LOT of places. They mean that a lot more people have access to economic exchange, over a lot more of the world, with a lot fewer gatekeepers saying who can buy and sell and what they can buy and sell. And that's the thing that makes crypto currencies interesting.
But a lot of the gatekeepers are legal authorities with considerable public support on their side. That means that any actually interesting new means of exchange is going to piss off the Man, period. And the well funded players in Bitcoin aren't interested in doing that.
Without the Silk Road et al, which were enabled by very limited anonymity, nobody except a few monetary cranks would ever have given a damn about Bitcoin. But Bitcoin is running away from that.
Furthermore, even in perfectly "legitimate" uses, fungibility is critical, and you don't get fungibility with a traceable currency. So Bitcoin is self-sabotaging even for the cases it's trying to address.
Basically Bitcoin is only covering applications that are already perfectly well served by fiat and banks, leaving all the actual crypto currency applications on the table, and sucking up into a giant Chicago-school delusional ball.
That leaves a vacuum for Monero and other privacy currencies to fill. Once the Bitcoin spying infrastructure is fully in place, a lot of people are going to realize they're unserved by Bitcoin.

I'm always impressed with the posts made by the Monero community on reddit. Now you have to ask yourself if Monero is working towards this objective. At least the github activity says yes.

This was a great post. It really calls into question the very nature of transparent ledgers and how it will never be implemented in the current version of "bitcoin" ever.

There is a niche market to serve and this is where Monero has huge potential.

[americanpegasus]

Smoothie, I hear you but disagree on one detail. 
  
I think that in reality it will eventually become bitcoin that is the niche market.  All other things equal, a digital collectible token with a fully traceable history is not as desirable as a private digital token that fulfills all the qualities of actual "digital cash".  
  
The unthinkable happened in 2013 when bitcoin achieved a value of hundreds of dollars.  Why?  The future is rarely what people expect (especially as technology progresses).  So I humbly speculate that a real shock is in store for the world as Monero surpasses Bitcoin at some point in the future (perhaps even as soon as 2019).

[smoothie]

Smoothie, I hear you but disagree on one detail. 
  
I think that in reality it will eventually become bitcoin that is the niche market.  All other things equal, a digital collectible token with a fully traceable history is not as desirable as a private digital token that fulfills all the qualities of actual "digital cash".  
  
The unthinkable happened in 2013 when bitcoin achieved a value of hundreds of dollars.  Why?  The future is rarely what people expect (especially as technology progresses).  So I humbly speculate that a real shock is in store for the world as Monero surpasses Bitcoin at some point in the future (perhaps even as soon as 2019).

I don't disagree with your point. Your outlined scenario is possible. Although possibly unlikely (I hope it happens).

My comment was merely addressing those who want privacy. Some people may not really want financial privacy. But then again that is sort of an oxy-moron as most people don't publicly post their bank/financial statements in public for all to see.

[BitcoinForumator]

Great post americanpegasus, informative reading. But what about other, "better" (faster maybe? TPS?), anonymous solutions, let's say Emunie or maybe even TPTB's coin if he manages to make it. Is that no worry for you?  

[americanpegasus]

Great post americanpegasus, informative reading. But what about other, "better" (faster maybe? TPS?), anonymous solutions, let's say Emunie or maybe even TPTB's coin if he manages to make it. Is that no worry for you?  

 
  
It is effectively impossible for a single-man designed currency to outperform a group-sourced currency like Cryptonote/Monero.  I would say it is theoretically possible that a single human could do the work of 7+ (possibly dozens or hundreds ultimately) of the brightest minds on the planet but the chances are so astronomical as not to consider.  
  
Therefore TPTB's coin and ideas (no matter how brilliant) will never compete with Monero and he needs to integrate that technology into it and get on board.  Star Trek is a lie; the Borg won because resistance truly is futile unless your tech is an order of magnitude better than your competitors (and even then you face an uphill battle as Monero does against Bitcoin).  
  
As far as eMunie,    
  
Everything I've read is a labryrinth of how it might work, distribution schemes, pre-sales, technologies, this, that, a cat.  No one can give a solid answer on exactly what the fuck it is.  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=411366.0)  
  
From the moment I inquired about Monero I got a straight, honest, and humble answer.  I did my own research and didn't find a single inconsistency in any of the information about it.  There's lots of weirdness and dead ends since it was forked from the original Monero which was rebooted from Bytecoin, but the currency itself stands on its own legs with active development.  
  
There's honestly nothing like it out there, and even things on the horizon (Zerocash) fail to threaten it.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Great post americanpegasus, informative reading. But what about other, "better" (faster maybe? TPS?), anonymous solutions, let's say Emunie or maybe even TPTB's coin if he manages to make it. Is that no worry for you?  

Why should it be a "worry" for anyone? If something ever does come along that renders Monero obsolete, then I'll diversify my investments accordingly. I would also be thrilled that such amazing, next-level technology is available.

And the developers and contributors shouldn't "worry" about their hard work being for naught, as you have to do something first before you can ever do it better. That's progress.

[BitcoinForumator]

Great post americanpegasus, informative reading. But what about other, "better" (faster maybe? TPS?), anonymous solutions, let's say Emunie or maybe even TPTB's coin if he manages to make it. Is that no worry for you?  

Why should it be a "worry" for anyone? If something ever does come along that renders Monero obsolete, then I'll diversify my investments accordingly. I would also be thrilled that such amazing, next-level technology is available.

And the developers and contributors shouldn't "worry" about their hard work being for naught, as you have to do something first before you can ever do it better. That's progress.

That's what I meant with "worry". I meant do you really not see anything could surpass Monero right now? I didn't mean worry as being scared. I'm not native-english speaking so I make these errors.