Martin Armstrong Discussion

[MA_talk]

Now, let me expand on his made-up letters since you broght it up and some others mentioned them elsewhere http://www.informedtrades.com/showthread.php?t=1341538&page=7. All those letters could be broken down into three main categories:

1.   Dear MA. Thank you for your existence. Our whole family has been reading your blog for years. It is so great that my 97-year-old grandma decided to learn how to read so as to be able to follow your blog. Occasionally on big family gatherings such as Thanksgiving or Christmas we even read your blog out loud (uncle Derek reads it because he has a strong voice and a better diction than our grandma). My children don’t go to school anymore because they have your blog. What else can you ask for in life, right? Thanks to your unique knowledge and extraordinary insight, we now know that politicians are not good as they claim during election campaigns and also that something bad is going on in Europe. It was really an eye-opener. Could you please elaborate on why grass is green and water is wet? Thank you.

2.   Your honor. I am so fortunate that I have stumbled upon your blog. I am a historian with a PhD but never have I read anything like what you put on your website. It is so clear to me that Will Durant and Eugen Weber are not in the same league with you because they probably copied some of their work from you. Even Herodotus would feel deeply ashamed of himself after reading the stuff you researched and kindly shared with us on your fascinating blog. Our academic community together with UNESCO should initiate the process of updating school programs around the globe with all your valuable insight and discoveries. A truly eye-opener. My son now actually can see things better after your blog (used to wear thick glasses). Would you please make some more dvds for Amazon and Netflix so everybody could benefit from your brilliant understanding of history? Thank you.

3.   Your majesty. Words can’t express how grateful I am for living in the same time with you. Your knowledge of economics and physics is so amazing that you should be awarded the Nobel prize for both. I am just one of millions of your loyal followers and has been attending your conferences since the Civil War. I remember you once said gold would go up and down. And it did! You also said that there would be wars in the world. And then they happened! The world best forecaster indeed! Now everybody steals your predictions and claims as their own all over the place. They are so dishonest. At your last conference there were tens of thousands of people and you could not place them all so you had to turn thousands away. Will you hold your next conference in a larger place say exhibition halls or convention centers to accommodate all participants? Thank you.

MA's answer regardless of the question asked almost always goes like this:

Thank you. It’s been a mystery to me. Some call it a miracle, some call me the greatest forecaster on the planet but I put it down simply to my unique ECM model. Gold went up precisely on time and according to the model. It’s not my opinion, it’s what computer says based on capital flows across the globe and the unique historic data that cost me hundreds of millions. Even the IMF does not have such database. The computer model works through 32000 variables and 72 metrics and so much else, it’s not humanly possible to produce forecasts like this. Even Microsoft and IBM clouds combined would not be able to process it. NASA confirms that they are not going to have such processing power before at least 2032, the next ECM turning point. It’s all because politicians are all corrupt, they can’t even run a bubble-gum machine. Back in the old days, the Roman empire collapsed precisely for the same reasons - they were all lawyers, not traders and programmers like myself. Governments are everywhere hunting cash and want to impose more taxes, bankers are sucking the blood of the economy, riots are everywhere just in line with our War cycle model. The Euro is about to crack because European leaders didn’t listen to me. Welcome to Big Bang.
Remember it was all rosy before when I consulted presidents and prime-ministers all over the world. Milton Friedman used to come to my conferences and sit quietly on the back row, Maggie Thatcher used to call me for my advice, Paul Volker wrote a book borrowing my ideas on cycles and so on. I am going to publish a report on gold soon and hold a conference next month where I will go in depth on all that and also on how to solve sovereign debt problem, find a cure for cancer, set peace in the Middle East, reduce inequality, eradicate poverty, and understand women. Sign-up early since places are limited.

Hahahaha, damn, 2016...
Man this is gold (pun intended).
Still same template to this day :/
Sad...

Always wondered why he doesn't have a comment section on his blog, but probably would get flooded by his followers.

I posted in this forum that MULTIPLE of his "readers" make the SIMILAR glaring typos in their feedbacks (like Armstrong himself).  That student debt petition, if you remember, also had TYPO (a missing space).  So most likely he submitted the petition himself, and said that some reader submitted it, and wanted him to endorse.  And of course, he is playing to be the GOOD GUY, so that all the young people will fall for him.

Just tell me, WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND, will submit a petition, without proof-reading the petition carefully twice or three times?  I cannot really think of anybody, except Martin Armstrong.

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[MA_talk]

Here is the link to Armstrong's student debt petition:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/student-loan-petition-to-white-house/

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/repeal-11-usc-ss-523a8

Raw text:
The economics of higher education are in crisis: tuitions are soaring,
with increases in college and school costs outpacing inflation students are exiting
college and graduate school more indebted than ever hastransformed student loans into the largest source of consumer indebtednessafter mortgages. To make matters worse, all of this comes as the value of higher education is being called into question. With returns sinking and tuitions, indebtedness, and defaults surging, the need for higher education financial reform is pressing. Students are unlikely to be able to repay, and § 523(a)( of the Bankruptcy Code exacerbates the effects of such burdensome debt by allowing private and federal student loans to be discharged only upon a showing of "Undue Hardship." Please sign this petition.

TYPOS above:
hastransformed and indebtednessafter


How many percentage of people know what's USC § 523(a)(?  Well, probably Armstrong.
Of those people who are familiar with laws, either practicing lawyers, or law-school students, they should ALL know that all text in any legal documents MUST be PRECISE language.  So out of this group of people, the chance of them making ANY typo on a formal petition should be extremely small, or close to zero.

So you can be the judge for the two proposed possible scenarios here:
1. Some fresh-out-of-school law school student submitted this very important petition (for his need), and made 2 typos, not realizing it, during the proof-read process which I presumed that he would have done because this petition is important to him.

2. Armstrong pretended (again) as the reader, had a sudden personality-split (or not really, if you observe all the readers' comments which are extremely similar), and submitted the petition, and blogged about the petition, so that he will seem to be the GOOD GUY, and the government is the BAD GUY (who also happened to put him into jail).  But since Armstrong has TYPOs everywhere, and never proof-reads anything that he writes, it just happened that there were TWO typos in the text of petition.

You could find the other two examples of typos from readers, if you search my posts in this forum.

[Traxo]

I posted in this forum that MULTIPLE of his "readers" make the SIMILAR glaring typos in their feedbacks (like Armstrong himself).  That student debt petition, if you remember, also had TYPO (a missing space).  So most likely he submitted the petition himself, and said that some reader submitted it, and wanted him to endorse.  And of course, he is playing to be the GOOD GUY, so that all the young people will fall for him.

Just tell me, WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND, will submit a petition, without proof-reading the petition carefully twice or three times?  I cannot really think of anybody, except Martin Armstrong.

Ain't that the truth, lol.  
You'd expect that someone who created a machine to have a conversation with in the 80s would have a spellcheck by now.  

I can't say I remember that petition you mentioned as I've been a reader only for a year or so. But true, typos are still all over the place.

Nevertheless, I gotta admit he provides some great insight.  
Just not sure what's up with made up questions etc. I remember some other members of this forum also pointed it out in the past.

How many percentage of people know what's USC § 523(a)(8 )?  Well, probably Armstrong.
Of those people who are familiar with laws, either practicing lawyers, or law-school students, they should ALL know that all text in any legal documents MUST be PRECISE language.  So out of this group of people, the chance of them making ANY typo on a formal petition should be extremely small, or close to zero.

So you can be the judge for the two proposed possible scenarios here:
1. Some fresh-out-of-school law school student submitted this very important petition (for his need), and made 2 typos, not realizing it, during the proof-read process which I presumed that he would have done because this petition is important to him.

2. Armstrong pretended (again) as the reader, had a sudden personality-split (or not really, if you observe all the readers' comments which are extremely similar), and submitted the petition, and blogged about the petition, so that he will seem to be the GOOD GUY, and the government is the BAD GUY (who also happened to put him into jail).  But since Armstrong has TYPOs everywhere, and never proof-reads anything that he writes, it just happened that there were TWO typos in the text of petition.

You could find the other two examples of typos from readers, if you search my posts in this forum.

Haha, nice catch and some good points (I guess).

[MA_talk]

My biggest problem with liars is that if he will lie about one small thing, then he may lie about two other bigger things.  Initially it's hard for anyone to tell what's lies and what's truth.  But given enough time, the (lying) pattern will emerge.

If someone needs to make up readers' comments (ESPECIALLY when this action is absolutely UNnecessary), then someone can also make up all the stories on the AI computer, Socrates, and such.

[footlong24seven]

Yacht??  Did you know that if Dow at 26K, and only rises on par with 2% annual inflation, it will be about 34K by 2032 after 13 years?
Armstrong was implying a phase transition and going to 40K for 2020, okay?  And now he backed away from that and said that it's postponed to 2032.  That is just LAME.

If Dow goes to 60K, that is only close to 4% annual increase.  That means that if you have $100K buying power today, and you do the "first part of the trade of century", you will gain about another $100K buying power at 2032.  And assume that everything is perfect, and you do the "second part of the trade of century", then you may gain another $100K buying power (by shorting $200K inflation-adjusted), if stocks fall by 50% in 2 years after that.  So you will earn $200K in total after 13+2 years (or $13K annual) in buying power, assuming that you start with $100K right now.  And you want your yacht?  Don't fall for Armstrong's flamboyant language (CENTURY??).

Why does Armstrong keep using trade or buy for the "CENTURY" for gold in the past, and for stocks now?  Because some people don't want to do their math, and is willing to skip thinking altogether, and just take words from some self-proclaimed forecaster.

I said something like this before, but I will say it again.  If Armstrong's AI computer is that accurate, and he knows that market will drop/pop tomorrow by 1%, he just need to leverage that by 400X or more, and put in a trade of $100 billion, he will be a billionaire in just ONE day in one trade.  Given his "perfect predictions", so many people and Wallstreet should be willing to lend him money to do this trade.  He should have been a billionaire in just ONE day, and return all the borrowed money.  Even if he doesn't do a trade size of $100 billion, he should be able to do a trade size of $10 billion, since he SAID that his managed portfolio size is at more than 1 TRILLION.  He should have been able to trade at least 1% of his portfolio in the past.  And he should have made MANY billions from managing his TRILLION dollar portfolio "easily".

There are some 250 trading days in just 1 year, and Armstrong should be making like 25 billion a year, or 2.5 billion a year if his daily trade size is $1 billion.  The fact that he is NOT the richest person on Earth, already is telling you that the accuracy of his AI computer is FAR FAR FAR away from being accurate.

You're seriously overlooking the fact that the average guy can get 100x leverage through options, on a 3x leveraged ETF, making an effective 300x leverage on a move. Those who had puts in XIV back in Jan 18 have been sitting pretty. One fund made the headlines for making 8000%+ on such a trade.

God bless the USA and the stock market rules. Any moron can get options approval.

[obamainbrednigg]

Can someone post the Private Blog – Euro Crash?

I seem to have lost access, shitty website.

[MA_talk]

Yacht??  Did you know that if Dow at 26K, and only rises on par with 2% annual inflation, it will be about 34K by 2032 after 13 years?
Armstrong was implying a phase transition and going to 40K for 2020, okay?  And now he backed away from that and said that it's postponed to 2032.  That is just LAME.

If Dow goes to 60K, that is only close to 4% annual increase.  That means that if you have $100K buying power today, and you do the "first part of the trade of century", you will gain about another $100K buying power at 2032.  And assume that everything is perfect, and you do the "second part of the trade of century", then you may gain another $100K buying power (by shorting $200K inflation-adjusted), if stocks fall by 50% in 2 years after that.  So you will earn $200K in total after 13+2 years (or $13K annual) in buying power, assuming that you start with $100K right now.  And you want your yacht?  Don't fall for Armstrong's flamboyant language (CENTURY??).

Why does Armstrong keep using trade or buy for the "CENTURY" for gold in the past, and for stocks now?  Because some people don't want to do their math, and is willing to skip thinking altogether, and just take words from some self-proclaimed forecaster.

I said something like this before, but I will say it again.  If Armstrong's AI computer is that accurate, and he knows that market will drop/pop tomorrow by 1%, he just need to leverage that by 400X or more, and put in a trade of $100 billion, he will be a billionaire in just ONE day in one trade.  Given his "perfect predictions", so many people and Wallstreet should be willing to lend him money to do this trade.  He should have been a billionaire in just ONE day, and return all the borrowed money.  Even if he doesn't do a trade size of $100 billion, he should be able to do a trade size of $10 billion, since he SAID that his managed portfolio size is at more than 1 TRILLION.  He should have been able to trade at least 1% of his portfolio in the past.  And he should have made MANY billions from managing his TRILLION dollar portfolio "easily".

There are some 250 trading days in just 1 year, and Armstrong should be making like 25 billion a year, or 2.5 billion a year if his daily trade size is $1 billion.  The fact that he is NOT the richest person on Earth, already is telling you that the accuracy of his AI computer is FAR FAR FAR away from being accurate.

You're seriously overlooking the fact that the average guy can get 100x leverage through options, on a 3x leveraged ETF, making an effective 300x leverage on a move. Those who had puts in XIV back in Jan 18 have been sitting pretty. One fund made the headlines for making 8000%+ on such a trade.

God bless the USA and the stock market rules. Any moron can get options approval.

Yes, I know that average guy can get upto 400X leverage pretty easily, but 99.9% of them gets a total wipeout in very short amount of time.  With 100X leverage, you just need a temporarily market movement of 1% against the trade direction to produce a total wipeout, because the brokerage house will immediately liquidate the position, even if the trade direction was correct one second later.  The higher the leverage, the more accurate the trade needs to be for the ENTIRE DURATION.

Please try it and let me know, not that I won't wish you good luck, because you need more than that.

Otherwise, you're really looking at just 13% gain per year for the next 15 years, which is NOT too shabby at all, assuming a PERFECT forecast from Martin Armstrong.

Think about it.  Martin Armstrong can access the same leverages if not more also.  And so my argument is totally valid.  In all likelihood, he is not a billionaire, and the mere fact that he is not, already tells you that his AI computer is fake.

[MA_talk]

In case you don't know how a wipe-out happens, here is the math.  You start with $10K, and use leverage of 100X to bet on $1 million worth of trade by buying.  Market drops 0.5%, and then another 0.5% after just 2 days.  At 1% loss, your "temporary" loss in the account is now at one million X 1% = 10K, totally wiping out your entire equity in the account.  Brokerage house will move in and immediately liquidate your entire position, producing ACTUAL loss of 10K, leaving you at zero dollar, plus some margin debt.

If Armstrong's prediction for Panic Cycle of this February 2019 is that POOR, there is close to zero chance that you can have any leveraged trades in the correct direction that will last for just one month.

Try it.  Money grows on the tree for the eternal optimist, but the market is market.

[MA_talk]

By the way, people like bikefront who can execute leveraged precision trade in this forum are exceedingly rare.  Trading is like any other talent.  There will always be some 0.x% of people who are good at something, including trading.

But even then, given large number multiplied by a small probability, pretty much anything is possible too.  If you have 539 million traders participated globally in the capital market, and ask each one of them to flip coins, instead of making trades, one of the 539 million traders could come back and tell you: geez, I just got 29 heads in a row, and so my coin is weighted.  Well, just because 2^29=536,870,912, doesn't mean that one trader who flipped coins and got 29 heads in a row, is talented in trading.  There are statistical tests to tell the differences, but are the most successful hedge fund managers truly a good trader, or they just happen to flip the coins and got 15 heads in a row?

Ask yourself.

And then when we all look back, regret not investing with the "smartest" guy in the room, without realizing that maybe the smartest guy was just the luckiest guy out of 0.5 billion traders, and that there was no way to distinguish him from the crowd either, because the chance of we recognizing him going back to the start of the trades would be the same as 1 / (2^29).

[luckyplate]

It is because the low is not in .if you buy  now and the market drops about 20 percent later ,are you going to hold on and add more ?
It is also going to be very volatile when the market reach new high every time and most will be too scrare to hold on . Need a lot of nerve to trade this type of market .

Thanks for the clarification. The trade of the century could indeed include going long as well as short. Though it seems that one should've gone full long by now if the Dow is certain to hit 40,000 soon.
It would seem that either Marty's not sure about advising his followers to take a long position, or he wants to continue using it as a carrot on a stick for subscription money.

[trc4949]

It is looking like the market is going to press down hard month of March for a restest of the lows and maybe even break under the December low.... will Marty give us advance warning ?   I guess he has mentioned we could go down there again but everything too vague.

[nero_monney]

I agree with Martin Armstrong. Much of what he says has logic. There are not so many people who can think right. I agree that everything is subjective, and his judgments too, but in my opinion, this is one of those people you can listen to!

[trc4949]

https://youtu.be/q62iRh_7Tbc?t=3604

[MA_talk]

I agree with Martin Armstrong. Much of what he says has logic. There are not so many people who can think right. I agree that everything is subjective, and his judgments too, but in my opinion, this is one of those people you can listen to!

You don't seem to get the point.

Yes, Armstrong can have his logic.

But his FORECAST has a poor record (~50%) of being correct.  People/subscribers don't subscribe wanting to know whether the market is currently trending down or up, because ANYONE can tell you that.  People want to know what will happen NEXT day, week, month, or year.

The typical Armstrong's way is

1. to state his "good" past record.
2. Predict the higher probability event for the near term, with a vague time frame, and if February is not a panic cycle, then keep repeating that until it's true.
3. Add some outrageous event for the FAR future, to grab attentions.
4. If market doesn't go his way on #2, he will say market is market, and it has breached weekly/monthly/yearly bullish/bearish reversal levels, and so things CHANGED, and/or adding cycle inversions for justification.  Well, F*&^, ANYONE can see that too, when markets break support/resistance levels.  What EVERYONE wants to know is to know that BEFOREHAND, NOT AFTER.
5. Repeat and go back to #1, but ONLY pick the correct predictions (when he simply has placed bets on both sides)


No one cares about what happened in the past in respect to trading.  What you need is a good consistent record of FUTURE predictions, so that you can trade with profits.

[MA_talk]

It is looking like the market is going to press down hard month of March for a restest of the lows and maybe even break under the December low.... will Marty give us advance warning ?   I guess he has mentioned we could go down there again but everything too vague.

Your confirmation bias is picking the down days that will suit Armstrong's vague forecast.

Then what happens today when market is up?  If you base everything on your memory, instead of systematically analyze Armstrong's record, you will always think that he is right.

[luckyplate]

It looks like more patience is required.
The market is likely in a range bound .
What does Martin global market watch saying now ?

[Doulon]

Can someone post the Private Blog – Euro Crash?

I seem to have lost access, shitty website.

Can somebody post the Private Blog - Euro Crash ?

[Bitcoin-Turkiye]

think there will be a collapse. The FED will make it happen and the most effective money used in the world will be sdr, Finance bosses do this job as they wish. They are never hurt by any problem in the economy ever. Because they have control over the money..
 

[luckyplate]

The collapse is actually in the government .and bonds. The stock market actually only do correction at most.
Martin forecast is that if March is a temp high for dow then the next low is in may .after that I expect a final move to a high in Nov 2019 ..if 21500 is retested again that would fit his forecast nicely .eric hadik predict for a lower low too.
That would create the next slingshot move for the market .the phase transition move would not come in until the dow have a bigger correction  .30 percent .
That would bring in the bears ..

think there will be a collapse. The FED will make it happen and the most effective money used in the world will be sdr, Finance bosses do this job as they wish. They are never hurt by any problem in the economy ever. Because they have control over the money..
 

[luckyplate]

Who can help to post Martin how to trade a  vertical market ?
This will help all traders here to be prepared .thks .