Martin Armstrong Discussion

[etoimene]

The way to use the model is the merger of Reversals and TIME(array)

Can you elaborate this? How to "merge"?

Thanks!

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[AnonymousCoder]

The way to use the model is the merger of Reversals and TIME(array)

Can you elaborate this? How to "merge"?

Thanks!

Before he replies, this has been answered before in so many threads that I can summarize past responses easily as follows (sorry):

If the reversal was good in hindsight: Without turning point, no worries. With turning point in the array we say the turning point was a cycle inversion.

If the reversal was bad in hindsight: With turning point, we say the turning point negated the reversal so it was your fault if you traded it. With no turning point, we look into arrays of the next lower and next higher time frames and we will sure find a matching turning point so again that turning point negated the reversal so it was your fault if you traded it. If all of the above is not true than we will sure find a nearby major reversal in the current or higher time frame that was just not elected, so we say that all 4 reversals need to be elected for a change in trend so again it was your fault that you did not consider this. If all of the above does not hold then we will surely find an elected reversal on a lower time frame so we should have traded that and should have exited the failed reversal trade at the same time, generating a net profit. If all of the above is still not sufficient to explain the failure of the reversal, we employ the rule that a reversal trade duration is between one and 3 time units and you traded the wrong number of time units. If again all that failed to explain the failure, then perhaps you did not exit the reversal when the price level of the next reversal was reached (which could happen within a fraction of a time unit not just between 1 and 3).


This view is numerically backed up by the fact that on average, the number of turning points in an array is usually quite high relative to the number of columns in it, so if you use multiple time frames then you are likely to find a turning point in any given situation.

To sum it up: This designed ambiguity makes it extremely easy for Armstrong to follow the above script and always claim that the system is right even when the reversals fail, which they do in 50% of all cases.

It should be fairly obvious that these complex decisions cannot be made in advance because the future price movement is not known ahead of time. If we wanted to execute the complex rules without knowing the price ahead of time, then we are faced with a dilemma: The rules contradict each other, and there is no mother of all rules that would tell us which of the contradicting rules applies in any given situation.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for a reason.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[Gumbi]

The way to use the model is the merger of Reversals and TIME(array)

Can you elaborate this? How to "merge"?

Thanks!

Let's say there is a turning point on the Dow in this case January and it looks like a high you could sell against the monthly bullish reversal  which is a key PRICE target that needs to be achieved within a specified TIME period. If the market is unable to achieve the price target in time then you would have sold the high.  
As we move into 2020.05 we are facing a major TURNING POINT.
This strategy can also be used in line with the ECM and this is what awarded Armstrong hedge fund manager of the year when he sold $1 billion worth of yen against the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 147 on an MIT (Market If Touched)
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/trading-reversals-in-reverse/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/about/1113-2/track-record-hedge-fund-manager-of-the-year/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/trading-against-the-reversals/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/time-price-2/

"Price targets become more important when the current trading activity reaches such a level in conjunction with the TIME targets."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/why-are-we-all-so-confused/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/so-when-will-we-know/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/what-kind-of-trader-is-trading/

For the record
The most recent call by Armstrong on his private blog is if we exceed the November high this month we can rally into the ECM(18 January) price target on the Dow is 30 000. IF we see a high in January in line with the ECM, Armstrong calls for a drop going into the 1st quarter 2021.


AnonymousCoder
"Getting to the bottom of Martin Armstrong’s criminal case is about as difficult as proving, once and for all, that the Fibonacci sequence is God. It can be especially hard to achieve certainty in a complex white-collar case. Prosecutors can be financially unsophisticated, and defendants may lie and obfuscate. Imagine a masked man accused of robbing a bank who maintains, all along, that he was merely cashing a check."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle?verso=true

Posted Oct 14, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
" In theory, if the market were to invert all the way into a low for 2015.75 next year, then we would be looking at a full blown cycle inversion with stocks moving up with the drop in the ECM. This would be a tremendous rally, but it would come at the cost of a real serious collapse in the confidence of government. This may be what we are facing. Instead of a Phase Transition that doubles the Dow Jones from the 2009 low of 6,440 (12,000), which we have already achieved, we are looking at a rally into 2017-2018 with the Dow reaching the 25,000-28,000 level. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/so-when-will-we-know/

This is exactly what happened in 2015.75 the next Major Turning point on the ECM we crashed going into it which indicated a  full blown cycle inversion with stocks moving up with the drop in the ECM(2020.05) So it looks like a high in 2020.05 and a sharp drop thereafter.  I believe trading in line with the ECM(TIME) and the reversals(PRICE) will yield the best results as it is a much stronger cycle and due to the difficulty reading the array and having it change so much.

"Day Trading is a full-time job and many people produce more in fees than they earn. The real TRADING is simply moving with the overall trend. You would be long primarily from a strategic position that may be held for months or years…The point is if you LEARN how the business cycle moves, you will be successful.  "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/what-kind-of-trader-is-trading/

[AnonymousCoder]

...
For the record
The most recent call by Armstrong on his private blog is if we exceed the November high this month we can rally into the ECM(18 January) price target on the Dow is 30 000. IF we see a high in January in line with the ECM, Armstrong calls for a drop going into the 1st quarter 2021.
...

That's bullshit like everything else.

If we see a high in January then we see a drop into the first quarter. Of course. There MUST be a drop after the high otherwise it would not be a high!

So how do we know about the January high? Only ever possible in hindsight after the price has dropped into the first quarter!

That is the definition of a high - that the price is lower before and lower after it - do I need to say that?

But not only that, before, he says "we can rally". Notice CAN.

He truly must think we are all idiots (and pay the Socrates subscription to read this junk).

This is how many Armstrong "Predictions" work.

We need only this one example to show it.

See for yourself and check everything else.

If, after so much debunking here in this forum, you still can't see that Socrates is a scam, then you deserve to pay 10 of the most expensive Socrates subscriptions for the rest of your life.




So what is the tactic here? He decorates this statement with so much other irrelevant fluff that the superficial reader gets distracted and cannot see the nonsense in the statement. It is pure nonsense. This is Martin Armstrong in person, no doubt, the charlatan-in-chief.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[s29]

For the record
The most recent call by Armstrong on his private blog is if we exceed the November high this month we can rally into the ECM(18 January) price target on the Dow is 30 000. IF we see a high in January in line with the ECM, Armstrong calls for a drop going into the 1st quarter 2021.

The Dow Going into the ECM
https://imgur.com/a/RPX9h5A

edit: Thanks both.

[unwashed]

And can anyone summarize what Armstrong is saying on his private blog on the Dow, for the record?

The Dow into the ECM
Posted Dec 7, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

PRIVATE BLOG – The Dow into the ECM Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please [...]
Read More

The Dow Going into the ECM
https://imgur.com/a/RPX9h5A

[StalemateNZ]

Armstrong is a scammer. I recently reviewed one of his articles where he claims that his cycles can predict earthquakes. His claims in that article are demonstrably wrong. It is so wrong and misleading that he looses all credibility, and I would have no confidence in his economic predictions. 

Please find it on reddit or follow the link below:

https://www.reddit.com/r/aec/comments/e8jvja/review_of_climate_change_earthquakes_caused_by/

I urge you to demand evidence, and be skeptical.

[AnonymousCoder]

Armstrong is a scammer. I recently reviewed one of his articles where he claims that his cycles can predict earthquakes. His claims in that article are demonstrably wrong. It is so wrong and misleading that he looses all credibility, and I would have no confidence in his economic predictions.

Please find it on reddit or follow the link below:

https://www.reddit.com/r/aec/comments/e8jvja/review_of_climate_change_earthquakes_caused_by/

I urge you to demand evidence, and be skeptical.

Thank you. Your conclusion that he is running a scam is absolutely correct.

He applies his so-called "model" which is no more than a primitive curve fitting machinery to whatever he can lay his hands on and then claims his computer has already predicted what scientists spent their lives on exploring. Climate, earthquakes, sports betting, election outcomes, economics, stock markets, currencies, commodities, everything. His Socrates software has been written to provide the ambiguity that allows interpretation in hindsight in such a way that the "model" is always right.

He creates with his forecasts doom and gloom scenarios which he offers his clients to survive or profit from when they buy his services, reports and seminars.



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[dibley8899]

Hmmm with this earthquake information it looks like Marty has been rumbled

Well done on that front that was a great post and link.

Gumbi....watch out for the suppository

Well done MR A....hat tip

[decipher11]

According to MA reversals are generated using advance AI.

Well ... just human intelligence can generate them quite easily

Reversals methodology deciphered by Arthur another deceived Princeton Attendees in April 2016

"I'm interested in discussing how the reversals are generated. I'll start with what I have
observed. It's better to use the actual numbers from the charts provided Socrates, that way it's
much more precise.

Every time the market exceeds the previous tick's high or low, a set of reversals is generated. If
that new high or low is not exceeded for the next tick, that reversal stays. I think this is what MA
is referring to when he talks about the "What-If" models.

There are 4 prices in a set of reversals.

These are determined from the timings 3, 5, 13, 26. (for stocks he seems to use 4, 8, 16, 23, however for the Dow he seems to be using 3, 5, 13, 26).

So if a new high is made, the low from the previous 3rd tick is a bearish reversal, the low from the
previous 5th tick is another bearish reversal, the low from the previous 13th tick is another
bearish reversal, and the low from the previous 26th tick is another bearish reversal. The same is
true if a new low is made, in this case the previous nth high is used.
If there is a holiday and the markets were closed, that still counts as a day.

For example, looking at the NY Gold Nearest Futures on the daily level, from the 128780 high on
March 11, the reaction low so far was 120600 on March 28. The 4 reversals generated were:
123530 (26, high from Feb 19)
124980 (3, high from Mar 23)
125670 (5, high from Mar 21)
126570 (13, high from Mar 9)

MA talks about how 1266 is the key bullish reversal, perhaps it is because it is the 4th reversal
from the reaction low, once all 4 of those reversals are taken out, the market moves to the next
level of trading.

Another example with the NY Gold Nearest Futures on the quarterly level, the low in Q4 2015
was 104540. MA wrote that this generated a minor quarterly bullish reversal at 993, while at the
same time we elected a bearish reversal at 1112. Here are the set of 4 reversals from that low:
99210 (26, high from Q2 2009)
130780 (3, high from Q1 2015)
134680 (5, high from Q3 2014)
179000 (13, high from Q3 2012)
So the 993 reversal seem to be more precisely 99210. Sometimes the reversal that is generated is
already below or above the market, like in this case.

You can generate reversals at all levels of time. Sometimes the market will bounce off a reversal,
sometimes the market will blast through a whole cluster of reversals."

Thanks to him for debunking the Socrates fraud

[decipher11]

As a WEC attendee i witnessed that MA is unable to give any clue how to use his famous array that are supposedly predicting everything.

After a day of empty speech and common knowledge, repeating the same stuff anyone can read in his blog, time came to present his Array ....
at this time MA went off stage !!!! to be replaced by another guy who for 20" pretended giving insight on how to read it.

Can you imagine that .... the creator of the "perfect" predicting tool hiding behind someone else to give a quick glimpse of is major achievement !!!

We talk for more than a year trying to read the array ... no one ... no one get into it !! those array are total BS

It is just the perfect tool to trick people and for him to show up afterward and tell you "right on time"

And if you dare question him, you will get insulted directly in his blog without any possibility to respond.

Martin Armstrong is a Master of lie !

[Lindegas]

the meaning of Gumbi.  Collins  dictionary
Stupid Clumsy Idiot
What more can I say

Sums up the whole Socrates bullshit perfectly

[DanB1]

Thanks Decipher11 for your contribution.
So in your opinion/experience, do the reversals have any real life meaning? In other words, do you find they can be used for (successful) trading?

[decipher11]

sometime reversal work, sometime it doesn't.
Most of the time they are irrelevant.
On my experience all Socrates information are useless especially Socrates reports which are totally unusable for trading. Reading those reports make you completely confuse and unable to enter any trade. Socrates is everything except AI as claimed by its seller. No buy signal/or sell signal nor direction. Buy/sell signal always appeared, miraculously, afterwards in MA blog 

[trc4949]

Armstrong is really going "all in" on his hyping of the repo crisis and then issuing a report and stating that there will be "projected losses for institutions I have laid out will range from 40% to 60% of assets"

And then the "mother of all financial crisis"

And that it will make 2008 look like a walk in the park in comparision.

He definitely going all in with these statements.  But why? just to help sell his reports?  I think he has enough money already.  No need to push the envelope and hype just to sell more reports..

[AnonymousCoder]

Armstrong is really going "all in" on his hyping of the repo crisis and then issuing a report and stating that there will be "projected losses for institutions I have laid out will range from 40% to 60% of assets"

And then the "mother of all financial crisis"

And that it will make 2008 look like a walk in the park in comparision.

He definitely going all in with these statements. But why? just to help sell his reports? I think he has enough money already. No need to push the envelope and hype just to sell more reports..

He needs a lot of money to keep his scam operational.
Lead Software Engineer, Software Engineer, CEO, Managing Director, support person, trolls, web services, lawyer ...

It is part of his

Strategies

The repo crises had been discussed already on zerohedge.com. That is perhaps where he initially picked up the theme from:

"It's About To Get Very Bad" - Repo Market Legend Predicts Market Crash In Days

Then he bought space there as well to predict doom and gloom to get he readers scared:

FREXIT - Is France Hurling Towards Leaving The EU?

I am not aware of any Martin Armstrong report about FREXIT but he published at zerohedge when his repo crisis report was released so he is definitely desparate to sell it.

The Truth Behind the Repo Crisis

He also followed this up with fake fan emails as usual:

BIS Hiding the Truth or Covering Their Exposure

The Repo Crisis Report - NOW AVAILABLE

The Mother of All Financial Crises on Schedule

European Banks to be Prohibited from Dealing in Repo?

So it must be an important revenue stream for him.

If you care about this then I suggest you get a zerohedge account to be ready to highlight this scam in the comments section when he next publishes there. It might take a while until they give you that account.

Update: Now he is cross-selling his private blog with a new entry: "PRIVATE BLOG - Coming Mother of All Financial Crises".



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

[DanB1]

Fear sells. Zerohedge is a good example. Every week they come up with new reasons why the markets will crash.

[DanB1]

The most recent call by Armstrong on his private blog is if we exceed the November high this month we can rally into the ECM(18 January) price target on the Dow is 30 000. IF we see a high in January in line with the ECM, Armstrong calls for a drop going into the 1st quarter 2021.

For the record: We have now exceeded the November high of 28,174.97 on the DOW.

[s29]

Armstrong is really going "all in" on his hyping of the repo crisis and then issuing a report and stating that there will be "projected losses for institutions I have laid out will range from 40% to 60% of assets"

And then the "mother of all financial crisis"

And that it will make 2008 look like a walk in the park in comparision.

He definitely going all in with these statements.  But why? just to help sell his reports?  I think he has enough money already.  No need to push the envelope and hype just to sell more reports..

Also in the news today:

Fed Will Flood Market With Gargantuan $500 Billion In Liquidity To Avoid Year-End Repo Crisis
This means that by mid-January, the Fed's balance sheet will surpass its all time high of $4.5 trillion

Seems like the Fed is adressing liquidity problems with both hands. It might actually be bullish, so they have an excuse to expand the balance sheet with the stock markets at all time highs.

[dibley8899]

yowser marty is claiming he is right with the latest post .....unbelieve a bubble!!!

How about this post Marty?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/britain/the-coming-british-elections/


Hard down for the blues I see on that post......but

its all Blue       couldnt actually be more wrong.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sX6hMhL1YsQ