Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[epii]

We reached 6$. I give up trying to predict this market. It’s pure insanity.

why, that's easy: longterm RALLY until 1 BTC = <value of world economy/> / 21,000,000

So I guess when we hit 2.6M USD/BTC I should sell some, eh?

For what?

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[marcus_of_augustus]

We reached 6$. I give up trying to predict this market. It’s pure insanity.

why, that's easy: longterm RALLY until 1 BTC = <value of world economy/> / 21,000,000

So I guess when we hit 2.6M USD/BTC I should sell some, eh?

For what?

bitcoin2.0

[brocktice]

So I guess when we hit 2.6M USD/BTC I should sell some, eh?

For what?

Oh, good point.

[epii]

So I guess when we hit 2.6M USD/BTC I should sell some, eh?

For what?

Oh, good point.

Australia, perhaps.

[allinvain]

The RSI on Enron was flashing buy signals the whole way down.

Indeed. MACD would be a much more appropriate technical analysis tool. That and of course moving averages.

Okay then: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-02-21zeg2011-05-14ztgSzbgBza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g25zi1gRSIzi2gMACD

What more does that tell us?

Both tell us that BTC/USD is in a severe overbought and strong uptrend stage.

The problem with using standard technical analysis tools on BTC/USD is that the BTC/USD market lacks the same level of depth and liquidity of say EUR/USD currency pair so there is more variability (volatility) which can really mess many technical analysis tools up.

I'd say stop trying to apply technical analysis to BTC/USD for now and treat it from a fundamental analysis point of view. You can apply technical analysis when the daily volumes of trades for BTC/USD reach a very large level.

For now "predicting" the trend depends largely on whether you know key bits of fundamental data that is relevant to the BTC/USD exchange rate (ie stuff like important bitcoin related news event, news of wider adoption, more businesses starting to use it, some big business adopting it, etc).

[molecular]

Ok now, that will really be quite enough. You are messing up my graphs.

boss: "quarterly meeting opened, what's the status, guys?"
accountant: "sir, uh,... we have a problem with our balance sheet, it seems to be quite serious, the guy that wrote the software mumbled something about 32 bits and decimal places, I didn't really understand."
boss: "What?!? Well, get it fixed! What's it cost of that?"
accountant: "Well, uhm, he says he needs $40.000 to fix it, and when he said it, he had this weird grin.. I think he might be overcharging us."
boss: "Goddamnit! Well, do we even have that kind of money?"
accountant: "Well, we don't know, cause, as said, the balance sheet does not compute"

[innernumb]

Exponential growth makes me nervous . . . 

Exponential shrinkage is what would make me nervous . . .

It probably makes him nervous because exponential growth might imply an exponential slide.

I'd like to see a nice steady bull market with some healthy pullbacks.  Pushing the top of an exponential range smacks of frothiness and could set us up for a crash.  Look what happened to silver recently.  Of course BTC is so thinly traded and is such a disruptive technology we could go much higher without any significant correction.  The agonizing question: Do I wait to buy more at a lower price or is this the lower price . . .

This is EXACTLY what is on my mind as well...

[S3052]

In any case, I think we will enter exciting times in the next couple of days.

While picking the top is difficult, the exponential rise makes BTC/USD very vulnerable to a sudden, hefty set-back.

What happened over the past hour is just one small indication (prices dropped 20% in just a few minutes on high volume). Once some folks get nervous and sell bigger chunks, an avalanche may start.

But this is normal in markets. Corrections always happen. The question is from where? Current levels, 10£ or even higher. But be alert to a big decline.

[nster]

I sold 130 BTC at 3.864, 150 at 5.65, and now I'm left with 100BTC, and I'm tempted to sell :/ I already lost 610$ in potential profit, but I don't blame myself as I didn't want to take the risk of it dropping. At both 3.864 and 5.65, trades were slowing down in the bears favor, and both times a big buy saved it.

[BitterTea]

I sold 130 BTC at 3.864, 150 at 5.65, and now I'm left with 100BTC, and I'm tempted to sell :/ I already lost 610$ in potential profit, but I don't blame myself as I didn't want to take the risk of it dropping. At both 3.864 and 5.65, trades were slowing down in the bears favor, and both times a big buy saved it.

I feel you. I sold ~500 @ $2.8.

I've got a buy order at $2 though, just in case...

[jed]

I can't believe one of these guys with 100k+ coins (which there are several I'm sure) hasn't decided "you know what I could use half a million dollars." and cash out. The market is so thin that only one can do it. So after that the price will smacked way the hell back down. It is like a game of chicken to see who will bolt first.

[barbarousrelic]

I can't believe one of these guys with 100k+ coins (which there are several I'm sure) hasn't decided "you know what I could use half a million dollars." and cash out. The market is so thin that only one can do it. So after that the price will smacked way the hell back down. It is like a game of chicken to see who will bolt first.

Perhaps they are concerned about attracting the attention of tax authorities, so they don't cash out (or they cash out very slowly)

[BitterTea]

I can't believe one of these guys with 100k+ coins (which there are several I'm sure) hasn't decided "you know what I could use half a million dollars." and cash out. The market is so thin that only one can do it. So after that the price will smacked way the hell back down. It is like a game of chicken to see who will bolt first.

Since the market is so thin, wouldn't the price fall before such a seller could get anywhere near current price for their 100k BTC?

[stic.man]

you try and sell 100000 coins and the last 90k or so are essentially worthless

I'd have no issue with it as people would clamor to try to buy as many as they could as penny prices and drive the price right back up

there are only so many coins available, even someone who buys every single available one right now on the list can only drive the price up so high

[Drifter]

Even so, at current prices there's over $15,000 USD above 7.3 alone. It would be very easy to trade large numbers without a huge fluctuation. Just not all at once.

[jed]

> you try and sell 100000 coins and the last 90k or so are essentially worthless

 Not true. The daily volume is around 30k so just keep selling yours over 3 or 4 days for the lowest ask. The price will drop a little but not to nothing. I'm sure you could drop 100k BTC for an average of $5 BTC over the course of a few days.

[ribuck]

I can't believe one of these guys with 100k+ coins (which there are several I'm sure) hasn't decided "you know what I could use half a million dollars." and cash out.

I'm sure one or two of the big guys are already slowly cashing out.

Most of us here are either buying or holding. All the new people arriving are buying, and who is the counterparty? It's the big guys, I think.

[rabit]

I can't believe one of these guys with 100k+ coins (which there are several I'm sure) hasn't decided "you know what I could use half a million dollars." and cash out. The market is so thin that only one can do it. So after that the price will smacked way the hell back down. It is like a game of chicken to see who will bolt first.

I´m sure that at this point the people with huge amounts of coins are more interested in technical or theoretical details of BC (or already other projects) than in money.
Thanks for the great usage of your brain power

[Ian Maxwell]

Speaking for myself, if I were one of those early adopters sitting on 100kBTC, I might think it was time, not to "cash out", but to start paying myself... maybe $1000-$2000 a week. The way things are going, this could be sustainable forever.

[S3052]

I want to get this back to the original purpose, the technical picture and here it is



As long as those trends hold, we may see higher highs.