Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[Mota]

...
That's not merely ROI, which is in fact ANY income generated, it's a profit ABOVE breakeven, even given the cost of electricity. That time frame of breakeven and positive ROI is an accountant's wet dream, not a pessimistic outlook. Three months to see a profit above breakeven on expensive equipment is stupendous. You aren't merely spreading FUD here, you are showing a complete lack of any sort of business sense. ...

First, a simple ROI formula: ROI = (Gains – Cost)/Cost.  That's the definition.  The term is otherwise defined by context.  When ROI is given in dollars instead of percentage or fraction, assume ROI = Gains - Cost.

Breakeven in three month is great for investments which do not depreciate over time, or depreciate slowly.
Mining gear depreciates quickly.  
Its profitability over time also drops at an exponential rate.  If its costs are not completely recouped within three months, it is unlikely that the costs will ever be recouped.

Example for the math-challenged:

If you slaughter a cow, and take the beef to the market, most of your profits will happen in the first few hours.  At the end of the day, the meat will be suitable only for dogs, and profits will be insignificant.  Do not expect any more profits the following day, the day after that, or the day after that day -- your meat is rotten, no moar monyz 4 U.

If you do not make ROI on your slaughtered cow in the first day, you don't make ROI in a month, two months, or even a year.  

Math.

And for the meat-challanged: If you slaughter a cow, the meat gains in worth over time, since beef gains worth if it is well hung. Some even say it is best if it is hung over a longer period.  Like with bitcoins

[1714218827]

1714218827

[1714218827]

1714218827

[GaiusMaximus]

http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-takes-delivery-of-asic-boards/

Interesting article on the companies' progress. Very excited to see the product realized.

[klee]

Why even try to reason with a troll?  They're like Democrats - they don't let inconveinient things like facts interfere with their vision of reality...

On the other hand, as we all know Republicans are widely known for their rationality.

I consider it a good day when I manage to piss off a Democrat and a Republican in the same sentence. It usually involves logic

Your foto reminds me of Al Jourgensen  

I really should know that name. But it's not coming to me Several people have told me I look like Tommy Shaw, and I'm good with that! 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Jourgensen

[Ytterbium]

So. If I buy a Jupiter now and mine just ONE BTC with it and BTC rises to 10k I won't be in profit?

Not if you paid with 70 bitcoins.  It would mean you lost $690,000

[Miner538]

However I look at it differently.

Yea i may spend a few grand or so on "outdated or no ROI" hardware BUT I already consider the money gone rather if i make my money back or not. Its an investment. Sometimes you make your money back and sometimes not. Just the way the cookie crumbles. Also its a way to keep the network nice and strong! Go to the BIGGEST super computer network there is. Long Live Bitcoin! 

That's good mentality and thinking right there. Too many people here thinking it's a guaranteed sure money maker. It's not. It's super risky and well you know the saying, "the bigger the risks, the bigger the reward".

From reading all the posts here in this thread, it seems too many people have spent way too much on a miner. Why do you think they are all in here acting so worried and going Where is ROI? Chips=where?

Man seriously if money is that big of a concern, maybe you've just spent way above what you can afford to lose. 

2 people who know how things work in life, just an good example of getting BTC or die trying :-)

[jspielberg]

Since everyone was talking about continuous exponential growth, here is my google spreadsheet with exponential with a daily linear cut-off that I posted in the speculation section.

Update

8/27/2013 spreadsheet prediction 62,333,209

Current difficulty 65,750,060

Still close but predictions are starting to get behind reality a bit.  

I just updated the spreadsheet with the latest projection.
The wolfram alpha data for the exponential portion of the graph can be found at:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B%7B13%2C+3651012%7D%2C%7B37%2C+4847647%7D%2C%7B96%2C+11187257%7D%2C+%7B120%2C+15605633%7D%2C%7B156%2C26162876%7D%2C%7B167%2C31256960%7D%2C%7B189%2C50810340%7D%2C%7B200%2C+65750060%7D%2C%7B210%2C85000000%7D%7D

I also added a daily linear difficulty  since the exponential won't grow forever (the red box).
Once the daily difficulty growth hits the threshhold difficulty will grow linearly at that rate rather than exponentially.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc&usp=sharing

The link is still:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc&usp=sharing

I have put in a daily linear rate of 40,000,000 which seems high, but we currently haven't seen wide scale asic deliveries yet and we are already at 1,500,000 daily difficulty growth.
Feel free to copy and edit as you like.

This allows for exponential growth for a time... and then linear after that.  Feel free to play around with it if you like spread sheets.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc&usp=sharing

[Phoenix1969]

Where can I read up on the product development status of KNC Miners? Im curious why there seems to be so little chatter abut deliveries since they are supposed to start shipping in October-- are they on track?

Your help is greatly appreciated!

Shame on you, lol, OK I have a heart. Deliveries begin in SEPTEMBER, NOT OCTOBER, and yes, they are on track as every news update on the site states. NEW ORDERS at the moment, are expected mid October, with NO GAP in production & deliveries.

Kinda hard to miss.

and you should read this...   http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-takes-delivery-of-asic-boards/
Which tells us latter half of Sept, and on time, over spec. (Most likely last week of Sept.)
Like 520Gh/s possible with Jupiter without overclocking.
You can catch up on the updates here... https://www.kncminer.com/news

[Bitcoinorama]

Where can I read up on the product development status of KNC Miners? Im curious why there seems to be so little chatter abut deliveries since they are supposed to start shipping in October-- are they on track?

Your help is greatly appreciated!

Shame on you, lol, OK I have a heart. Deliveries begin in SEPTEMBER, NOT OCTOBER, and yes, they are on track as every news update on the site states. NEW ORDERS at the moment, are expected mid October, with NO GAP in production & deliveries.

*end of September. I'm not necc expecting that to be a margin as they were always going from fab -> to packaging -> in hand test -> immediately to customers.

Clearly they are at the mercy of the fab and the packaging co., the fab will have a promised date of completion, which they are unlikely to break a contract for.

[alfabitcoin]

What you guys think how much will prices be for Jupiter in November?

Also, how you would comment on those who has early order and will getting their miners end of September vs those who order now and will get theirs mid October?

[Templer]

What you guys think how much will prices be for Jupiter in November?

Also, how you would comment on those who has early order and will getting their miners end of September vs those who order now and will get theirs mid October?

Quote KNC updates:

November pricing

With difficulty increasing the way it is, we would like to give an indication of a November price drop. Currently all orders placed and paid for will ship in October, and yes, we still have space within October for more orders. However, as soon as this is no longer the case we will adjust our prices for November accordingly.
 
To give you an indication on the forthcoming price drop a Jupiter device will cost less than 5000 USD. More information will follow on this when October shipping becomes full.

[crumbs]

...
That's not merely ROI, which is in fact ANY income generated, it's a profit ABOVE breakeven, even given the cost of electricity. That time frame of breakeven and positive ROI is an accountant's wet dream, not a pessimistic outlook. Three months to see a profit above breakeven on expensive equipment is stupendous. You aren't merely spreading FUD here, you are showing a complete lack of any sort of business sense. ...

First, a simple ROI formula: ROI = (Gains – Cost)/Cost.  That's the definition.  The term is otherwise defined by context.  When ROI is given in dollars instead of percentage or fraction, assume ROI = Gains - Cost.

Breakeven in three month is great for investments which do not depreciate over time, or depreciate slowly.
Mining gear depreciates quickly.  
Its profitability over time also drops at an exponential rate.  If its costs are not completely recouped within three months, it is unlikely that the costs will ever be recouped.

Example for the math-challenged:

If you slaughter a cow, and take the beef to the market, most of your profits will happen in the first few hours.  At the end of the day, the meat will be suitable only for dogs, and profits will be insignificant.  Do not expect any more profits the following day, the day after that, or the day after that day -- your meat is rotten, no moar monyz 4 U.

If you do not make ROI on your slaughtered cow in the first day, you don't make ROI in a month, two months, or even a year.  

Math.

And for the meat-challanged: If you slaughter a cow, the meat gains in worth over time, since beef gains worth if it is well hung. Some even say it is best if it is hung over a longer period.  Like with bitcoins

Eww?
The best way to make beef tender?  Beat your meat.

[JohnyBigs]

What you guys think how much will prices be for Jupiter in November?

Also, how you would comment on those who has early order and will getting their miners end of September vs those who order now and will get theirs mid October?

Quote KNC updates:

November pricing

With difficulty increasing the way it is, we would like to give an indication of a November price drop. Currently all orders placed and paid for will ship in October, and yes, we still have space within October for more orders. However, as soon as this is no longer the case we will adjust our prices for November accordingly.
 
To give you an indication on the forthcoming price drop a Jupiter device will cost less than 5000 USD. More information will follow on this when October shipping becomes full.

Cant wait for the idiots to get their devices October 28 and other people November 1st for $3, 000 less, I'm sure they will come up with some brilliant math about how losing money is profitable if xyz the earth tilts its axis happen. Or I profited $400 now I just need Bitcoin to go to $10, 000.

[alfabitcoin]

What you guys think how much will prices be for Jupiter in November?

Also, how you would comment on those who has early order and will getting their miners end of September vs those who order now and will get theirs mid October?

Quote KNC updates:

November pricing

With difficulty increasing the way it is, we would like to give an indication of a November price drop. Currently all orders placed and paid for will ship in October, and yes, we still have space within October for more orders. However, as soon as this is no longer the case we will adjust our prices for November accordingly.
 
To give you an indication on the forthcoming price drop a Jupiter device will cost less than 5000 USD. More information will follow on this when October shipping becomes full.

Cant wait for the idiots to get their devices October 28 and other people November 1st for $3, 000 less, I'm sure they will come up with some brilliant math about how losing money is profitable if xyz the earth tilts its axis happen. Or I profited $400 now I just need Bitcoin to go to $10, 000.

I believe (maybe in an article) they stayed that all October orders will go out within the first 2 weeks of October.

Secondly, $7,000 - $5,000 is a $2,000 difference, not $3,000.

Third you are still a moron if you use a mining calculator with a % increase forever.

You guys from US (and other non vat) country are lucky. My country VAT is 25% on top of everything

[Templer]

You guys from US (and other non vat) country are lucky. My country VAT is 25% on top of everything

7,9% here.

[alfabitcoin]

You guys from US (and other non vat) country are lucky. My country VAT is 25% on top of everything

7,9% here.

Thanks Temler for info earlier.
I guess I should start a company or move out! I would be happy with 7,9%  

[JohnyBigs]

What you guys think how much will prices be for Jupiter in November?

Also, how you would comment on those who has early order and will getting their miners end of September vs those who order now and will get theirs mid October?

Quote KNC updates:

November pricing

With difficulty increasing the way it is, we would like to give an indication of a November price drop. Currently all orders placed and paid for will ship in October, and yes, we still have space within October for more orders. However, as soon as this is no longer the case we will adjust our prices for November accordingly.
 
To give you an indication on the forthcoming price drop a Jupiter device will cost less than 5000 USD. More information will follow on this when October shipping becomes full.

Cant wait for the idiots to get their devices October 28 and other people November 1st for $3, 000 less, I'm sure they will come up with some brilliant math about how losing money is profitable if xyz the earth tilts its axis happen. Or I profited $400 now I just need Bitcoin to go to $10, 000.

I believe (maybe in an article) they stayed that all October orders will go out within the first 2 weeks of October.

Secondly, $7,000 - $5,000 is a $2,000 difference, not $3,000.

Third you are still a moron if you use a mining calculator with a % increase forever.

It won't increase forever but it will for the next 3-6 months with all the hardware companies delivering which make it pretty accurate if not understated of potential profits if any.

[Templer]

You guys from US (and other non vat) country are lucky. My country VAT is 25% on top of everything

7,9% here.

Thanks Temler for info earlier.
I guess I should start a company or move out! I would be happy with 7,9%  

You dont want to know what i pay for electricity^^ ca.0.40$/Kwh

[alfabitcoin]

You guys from US (and other non vat) country are lucky. My country VAT is 25% on top of everything

7,9% here.

Thanks Temler for info earlier.
I guess I should start a company or move out! I would be happy with 7,9%  

You dont want to know what i pay for electricity^^ ca.0.40$/Kwh

Damn, we pay here $0,10/kwh
I wonder will some hosting datacentre can be open on Island? All knc stock should be run there with small operator cost

[Phoenix1969]

You guys from US (and other non vat) country are lucky. My country VAT is 25% on top of everything

7,9% here.

Thanks Temler for info earlier.
I guess I should start a company or move out! I would be happy with 7,9%  

You dont want to know what i pay for electricity^^ ca.0.40$/Kwh

Damn, we pay here $0,10/kwh
I wonder will some hosting datacentre can be open on Island? All knc stock should be run there with small operator cost

Islands typically have the most expensive electric, so.... no.
I live on Hawaii Island, where they profess we pay 37 cents, but after their fees, is actually .43 cents per kilowatt-hour.
May I ask... What made you think an Island would have cheap electric?

[Transam808]

This is from KNC them selves, a response to an email I wrote about a week ago, they don't plan on shipping lower cost units tell the end of November


"Hi,

 

We are in the final productions stages with our chips we cannot disclose more information at the moment in time. We are looking to drop our prices for November and orders placed in November would be expected to ship towards the end of November.

 

Also are looking to stop shipping in December, January and February to protect the network for our customers, However we would like to state that If any of our competitors continues to add large amounts of hashing power to the network during December, January or February. We will continue to release our devices as competitively priced as we can to protect our customers share of the network.

 

If you have any further questions please do not hesitate in contacting us."

What you guys think how much will prices be for Jupiter in November?

Also, how you would comment on those who has early order and will getting their miners end of September vs those who order now and will get theirs mid October?

Quote KNC updates:

November pricing

With difficulty increasing the way it is, we would like to give an indication of a November price drop. Currently all orders placed and paid for will ship in October, and yes, we still have space within October for more orders. However, as soon as this is no longer the case we will adjust our prices for November accordingly.
 
To give you an indication on the forthcoming price drop a Jupiter device will cost less than 5000 USD. More information will follow on this when October shipping becomes full.

Cant wait for the idiots to get their devices October 28 and other people November 1st for $3, 000 less, I'm sure they will come up with some brilliant math about how losing money is profitable if xyz the earth tilts its axis happen. Or I profited $400 now I just need Bitcoin to go to $10, 000.