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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3045495 times)
fcmatt
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August 27, 2013, 04:19:34 AM
 #7241

Time for worry worts to re-check there ROI calculators for the price of BITCOIN has jumped to $126 on mt. gox

mtgox price of bitcoin is not reality due to not being a true 2 way market. People are trying to get their
money out of gox and failing so they have to buy bitcoin and transfer it out. Then sell for fiat.

so feel free to send 100 BTC to gox and sell it. good luck getting your USD into a bank account. it could
take months or never.
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August 27, 2013, 04:23:23 AM
 #7242

an excellent reason to use wifi indeed, would stop a cablemodem, or dsl modem spike in its tracks.... but if I'm not mistaken, most wifi routers are already pre-configured as you say, with up-link on the RJ-45 side & down-link on the wi-fi side... or am I missing something?


Perhaps you are missing a spike on the AC line?

WiFi will not negate the lightning hazard thru the AC.

A smart miner will have a surge protector AT the miner.
Surge protectors with telco, coax, and ethernet ports are common.
A UPS would be even better so you can mine thru brown/black outs.
You would need a very big UPS to mine for more than a few minutes during a blackout though.

Everything in the chain needs lightning/surge protection!
Miners will come to a screeching halt if your upstream equipment goes poof.

Even though I posted a link to a WiFi solution I do not advocate WiFi for mining.
There are security/reliability issues.

The origonal conversation stemmed from different utility companies sharing/not sharing grounds, so if your cable internet isn't sharing pole grounds on the way to your home, and gets hit by lightning instead of the POWER line, which IS grounded on every pole, it would indeed lessen the risk of lightning strike spike from the internet line, stopping at the wifi, instead of in your miner.

Since they travel feet apart on the poles, when lightening strikes I would bet it bounces between one and the other or stays on both.  That kind of argument is like the speed of light argument of a ball being bounced on a flatcar going the speed of light - the ball bouncing would have to go faster than light as it isn't traveling in a straight line.  The whole idea is a farce.  But yes, I'm glad you agree with me.  thanks.
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August 27, 2013, 04:44:47 AM
 #7243

Time for worry worts to re-check there ROI calculators for the price of BITCOIN has jumped to $126 on mt. gox

mtgox price of bitcoin is not reality due to not being a true 2 way market. People are trying to get their
money out of gox and failing so they have to buy bitcoin and transfer it out. Then sell for fiat.

so feel free to send 100 BTC to gox and sell it. good luck getting your USD into a bank account. it could
take months or never.

OK then, now $115 on BitStamp....not saying mt. gox is not the defacto market....just showing that price is "jumping" up, albeit a small jump.
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August 27, 2013, 04:49:01 AM
Last edit: August 27, 2013, 05:13:49 AM by Phoenix1969
 #7244

an excellent reason to use wifi indeed, would stop a cablemodem, or dsl modem spike in its tracks.... but if I'm not mistaken, most wifi routers are already pre-configured as you say, with up-link on the RJ-45 side & down-link on the wi-fi side... or am I missing something?


Perhaps you are missing a spike on the AC line?

WiFi will not negate the lightning hazard thru the AC.

A smart miner will have a surge protector AT the miner.
Surge protectors with telco, coax, and ethernet ports are common.
A UPS would be even better so you can mine thru brown/black outs.
You would need a very big UPS to mine for more than a few minutes during a blackout though.

Everything in the chain needs lightning/surge protection!
Miners will come to a screeching halt if your upstream equipment goes poof.

Even though I posted a link to a WiFi solution I do not advocate WiFi for mining.
There are security/reliability issues.

The origonal conversation stemmed from different utility companies sharing/not sharing grounds, so if your cable internet isn't sharing pole grounds on the way to your home, and gets hit by lightning instead of the POWER line, which IS grounded on every pole, it would indeed lessen the risk of lightning strike spike from the internet line, stopping at the wifi, instead of in your miner.

Since they travel feet apart on the poles, when lightening strikes I would bet it bounces between one and the other or stays on both.  That kind of argument is like the speed of light argument of a ball being bounced on a flatcar going the speed of light - the ball bouncing would have to go faster than light as it isn't traveling in a straight line.  The whole idea is a farce.  But yes, I'm glad you agree with me.  thanks.
The point was the electrical lines would have grounds at every pole, but a utility line would not. Sorry if I didn't explain it well, I'm running around doing other things...   Wink
BTW, I'm also not an advocate of wireless mining, just looking at options category.
My actual tentative plan is the locally offered Generic 49.99 7Mb/s Dsl buisness connection, connecting the miners via the RJ45 connection on the Ethernet router provided by the service provider, but to get multiple machines on it, I plan on a simple miner, to ethernt hub, to router setup, and still be able to access the system via wifi laptop when I'm there (The service provider confirmed their "free wi-fi router" would be capable of connecting to a hub via RJ45 with multiple machines on it)


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sbfree
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August 27, 2013, 05:31:08 AM
 #7245

bitcoin just crossed $130 on mt. gox.....come on KNC!
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August 27, 2013, 05:32:46 AM
 #7246

bitcoin just crossed $130 on mt. gox.....come on KNC!

High of $140 AUD, I'm hearing you, hurry up KnC!

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August 27, 2013, 05:34:52 AM
 #7247

time to put some more miners to work while I wait for my KNC Dream Machine....
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August 27, 2013, 05:36:06 AM
 #7248

time to put some more miners to work while I wait for my KNC Dream Machine....

I don't have any current miners Sad

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August 27, 2013, 05:36:48 AM
 #7249

You don't know that, you have no idea what the BTC price will be at the end of September, nobody does.
The BTC price doesn't matter very much. It only affects the price of electricity in Bitcoins. Otherwise, everything else stays the same. You do the ROI calculation in Bitcoins you compare buying a miner to buying Bitcoins directly.

Only if you want to distort the calculation, KCNminer price their products in $USD not BTC therefore the ROI must also be calculated in USD.
KNCminder's choice of pricing models doesn't dictate my ROI calculations. What dictates my ROI calculations is what else I could do with the money, which is buy Bitcoins. Any idiot can buy Bitcoins -- if buying a miner is worse than buying Bitcoins, then only an idiot would buy a miner. If it's better than buying Bitcoins, then people who would otherwise buy Bitcoins should consider buying miners. From a realistic standpoint, your choices are to buy a miner, buy Bitcoins, or do something else.

I am an employee of Ripple. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKatz
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August 27, 2013, 05:45:03 AM
 #7250

Ok, newbie here. I have a Jupiter and a Saturn on order, with non specific shipping dates. I am hoping that KNC clarifies or changes their policy regarding November price drops. Are these prices good for everyone or only customers like myself that have tied up over $10000 (some people have given far more than that) in capital for several months all in good faith?  I believe they need to set a moratorium on all shipping for a set period of time before they ship the reduced price units, or offer the reduced price rigs to pre-sale buyers at an earlier date. This would prevent the guy who gets the last $8000 Jupiter from getting steamrolled by the guy with a $5000 rig that is only a few days younger.

In reality, KNC's biggest customers are going to be us, those who make the biggest returns the earliest with their 1st gen rigs. We are the most likely to re-invest our mined BTC into more hardware. They need to make sure they treat us right.

Right now people are laughing at Cointerra for offering a 2Ths machine for $15750. Honestly, if my 600 Ghs has mined anywhere close to that by early next year, I see spending that kind of money on more hashing power as viable. The roughly $11200 I have tied up now is a long term investment. If I were in this for the quick buck, I'd have invested in something else, but instead I plan on re-investing in my infrastructure, and hopefully in the future the BTC mining income will be steady and predictable as the difficulty skyrockets then levels off.

The way I see it, as difficulty approaches the 1.5 - 2 Billion mark,  it will become very difficult to enter the market as a miner or as a hardware vendor. It's always going to cost several million dollars to develop an ASIC, but the BTC pie is finite and new miners won't be able to justify spending $thousands on a machine that might not pay for itself for several years. That means the pool of possible customers will shrink as mining becomes less profitable. Less customers means higher priced hardware and the guarantee of more dreaded pre-sales.

At 2 billion difficulty 2Ths mines about 14Btc a month. By today's standard, that 2Ths of mining power should only cost 20btc. Not gonna happen. Atleast not in the arguable future. I see the playing field becoming dominated by large ASIC farms populated by 2 or 3 major manufacturers. People expecting to turn on a magic money machine and start collecting a paycheck are delusional. Mining is going to become an arms race, and anyone who isn't dumping the vast majority of their BTC back into hardware until difficulty plateaus is going to lose out in the end, or have a very short run of profitability.

Alright that was more of a Unabomber manifesto than a proper first post, but I have been thinking of this since I heard about the November price drop. Anyone have any clue what the second gen KNC machines are going to be like? Prices, performance? I would rather stay with KNC, but if I have the money to spend and a different manufacturer is offering a better deal (and actually delivering product during December, January and February) I might have to change allegiances.

Seriously, I don't want to have to deal with stuff like Bitfury, where everything is cobbled together, held together with fishing line and drinking straws,  and programmed by my old Gameboy.
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August 27, 2013, 05:51:38 AM
 #7251

I took the above KNC quote to mean they don't plan on releasing product during Dec/Jan/Feb to help keep the skyrocketing hashrate down and thereby help customer's ROI UNLESS their competitors release large quantities during those months. Which is almost guaranteed to happen. Am I off base?
That's not my read, no. Under no circumstance will they be selling products in dec/jan/feb.

Haha! What part of "IF" in the following sentence you don't understand?

"We would like to state that ****IF***** any of our competitors continues to add large amounts of hashing power to the network during December, January or February. We will continue to release our devices as competitively priced as we can to protect our customers share of the network.ThanksKnCMiner Team "

So they WILL if competitors add large amounts of hashing power in those months. Nothing to debate.
A. They don't have full command of English so you have to do a bit of interpretation.
B. The statement isn't that clear in the first place.

It's obvious given the full context of all the communication KNC has given us so far that they intend not to ship product in dec/jan/fed and the statement that if competitors ship new products is intended to be connected to the price of their Nov products and has nothing to do with shipping products after in that three month period.

Shipping then doesn't help anyone.

And they plan to use that time to build their gen 2 device for shipping in march.

So, if competitors ship tons of hardware, they'll simply lower the price of their miner in Nov and possibly even Oct so that you'll be able to ROI. It has literally nothing to do with whether they'll ship product in Dec-feb.

Trust me, this is the correct understanding. Don't even take my word for it, just wait and watch it happen.

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August 27, 2013, 05:57:40 AM
 #7252

 
Ok, newbie here. I have a Jupiter and a Saturn on order, with non specific shipping dates. I am hoping that KNC clarifies or changes their policy regarding November price drops. Are these prices good for everyone or only customers like myself that have tied up over $10000 (some people have given far more than that) in capital for several months all in good faith?  I believe they need to set a moratorium on all shipping for a set period of time before they ship the reduced price units, or offer the reduced price rigs to pre-sale buyers at an earlier date. This would prevent the guy who gets the last $8000 Jupiter from getting steamrolled by the guy with a $5000 rig that is only a few days younger.

In reality, KNC's biggest customers are going to be us, those who make the biggest returns the earliest with their 1st gen rigs. We are the most likely to re-invest our mined BTC into more hardware. They need to make sure they treat us right.

Right now people are laughing at Cointerra for offering a 2Ths machine for $15750. Honestly, if my 600 Ghs has mined anywhere close to that by early next year, I see spending that kind of money on more hashing power as viable. The roughly $11200 I have tied up now is a long term investment. If I were in this for the quick buck, I'd have invested in something else, but instead I plan on re-investing in my infrastructure, and hopefully in the future the BTC mining income will be steady and predictable as the difficulty skyrockets then levels off.

The way I see it, as difficulty approaches the 1.5 - 2 Billion mark,  it will become very difficult to enter the market as a miner or as a hardware vendor. It's always going to cost several million dollars to develop an ASIC, but the BTC pie is finite and new miners won't be able to justify spending $thousands on a machine that might not pay for itself for several years. That means the pool of possible customers will shrink as mining becomes less profitable. Less customers means higher priced hardware and the guarantee of more dreaded pre-sales.

At 2 billion difficulty 2Ths mines about 14Btc a month. By today's standard, that 2Ths of mining power should only cost 20btc. Not gonna happen. Atleast not in the arguable future. I see the playing field becoming dominated by large ASIC farms populated by 2 or 3 major manufacturers. People expecting to turn on a magic money machine and start collecting a paycheck are delusional. Mining is going to become an arms race, and anyone who isn't dumping the vast majority of their BTC back into hardware until difficulty plateaus is going to lose out in the end, or have a very short run of profitability.

Alright that was more of a Unabomber manifesto than a proper first post, but I have been thinking of this since I heard about the November price drop. Anyone have any clue what the second gen KNC machines are going to be like? Prices, performance? I would rather stay with KNC, but if I have the money to spend and a different manufacturer is offering a better deal (and actually delivering product during December, January and February) I might have to change allegiances.

Seriously, I don't want to have to deal with stuff like Bitfury, where everything is cobbled together, held together with fishing line and drinking straws,  and programmed by my old Gameboy.
I'd say a simple coupon code for say, a 10% additional discount for prior customers would be nice...
who knows on Gen 2, I'm betting Marcus & gang have a few tricks left in the bag yet tho


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Anenome5
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August 27, 2013, 06:11:50 AM
 #7253

Couple big 'yes' bets after the latest interview with Sam Smiley

http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

Anyone else want to bet 'no' some more and donate to the rest of us?

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August 27, 2013, 06:16:51 AM
 #7254

What they have said is that they want to protect their customers' investment, correct? The way I see it, lowering their prices is protecting their market share, not protecting the customers who put out a ton of money ahead of time, gambling that KNC would perform on time. Why should I care if some guy who waited to see if they "actually ship" ROIs, when I have had my money tied up for 2 months already? I agree that possibily a tiered discount structure for pre-order customers might work. Say they give you a 10% discount for every Jupiter you ordered plus 5% for each mercury and saturn. Sort of like their vendor program. For the saturn and jupiter I have on order, I would get an additional 15% off the November pricing. That would be protecting "customers", not just cultivating new ones.

I hammered them with emails for a while and then backed off, so I didn't look like a pest, but this had a bad smell to me. I will start pestering them again.
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August 27, 2013, 06:21:59 AM
 #7255

You don't know that, you have no idea what the BTC price will be at the end of September, nobody does.
The BTC price doesn't matter very much. It only affects the price of electricity in Bitcoins. Otherwise, everything else stays the same. You do the ROI calculation in Bitcoins you compare buying a miner to buying Bitcoins directly.

Only if you want to distort the calculation, KCNminer price their products in $USD not BTC therefore the ROI must also be calculated in USD.
Not so. You translate the cost of your miner in USD to what it would've cost you to buy the same BTC amount the day you paid for it. When I bought my jupiter the price of BTC was $130, so I paid a lot less than some of you because the miner is priced in dollars, and that wednesday the price crashed from 130 to <$100. Faster ROI for me.

You actually should be viewing all profit and ROI in BTC terms to know if you would've been better off just holding BTC. So far, the numbers say that isn't true. You're making a BTC profit owning a Jupiter, and it's not yet quite tight.

All these other manufacturers, however, are in for a rude awakening after KNC ships.

Democracy is the original 51% attack.
Anenome5
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August 27, 2013, 06:28:40 AM
 #7256

Wow..  Just Freaking Wow..

So glad I got out just in the nick of time..



Market & Hardware Parameters
KnCMiner
Jupiter

1
Hardware Values
Hash Rate (GH/s)   
Power Use (W)   
Cost of Hardware
($)
 
Initial Mining Date   
2013
October

 
Additional Costs
Shipping Costs   
Misc Costs (psu, cables, etc)   
Pool Fee (%)   
Network Stats
Current Difficulty (MM)   
Difficulty Increase / Month
(%)
 
Conversion and Electricity
Conversion Rate ($/BTC)   
Conversion Increase / Month (%)   
Electricity Costs ($/kWh)   


Mining Payout Scheduleby The Genesis Block
USD
Display Currency

Share your analysis:   
Break Even Period:   140 days   Total Fixed Costs:   $7250
Max Profit:   $361 (May-14) - 4.97%   Monthly Power Costs:   $60.5
Month   Difficulty (MM)   Time per
Block (days)   Monthly Revenue   Monthly
Profit   Cumulative
Return
Oct-13   204   25   $3,530   $3,470   $(3,780)
Nov-13   358   45   $2,010   $1,950   $(1,830)
Dec-13   631   78   $1,140   $1,080   $(749)
Jan-14   1110   138   $648   $588   $(161)
Feb-14   1954   243   $368   $308   $146
Mar-14   3439   427   $209   $149   $295
Apr-14   6053   752   $119   $58   $353
May-14   10654   1324   $68   $7   $361
Jun-14   18751   2330   $38   $-22   $338
Jul-14   33002   4101   $22   $-39   $300
Aug-14   58083   7218   $12   $-48   $252
Sep-14   102226   12704   $7   $-53   $198

Just to put your absurd calculations to reality.

January Difficulty of 1110M would be 7 Petahash (7000TH)

You're next calculation of February shows that close to doubling at 13 Petahash (13,000TH)

Then if we move on to the next absurd calculation of March at around 25 Petahash (25,000TH) you start to see how retarded using a % calculation becomes.

Now for some more perspective!

7 Petahash = 17,500 Jupiters = 70,000 Packages = 280,000 ASIC Chips (Remember each one of KnC's Packages has 4 "Chips" inside)

Are you starting to see how unbelievable your calculations are now?

If for some reason it did get to 7 Petahashes with all the other vendors coming online, do you honestly think it will go to 13 in a Month? and then 25 the next month?

Do you think anyone will buy a machine for $5,000 in January when it is making $300/month and dropping?

*Mind Blown*
Exactly. People bailing over obviously impossible difficulty rates are math-challenged. I expect the diff to level off at around 400 mill or so. The latest jump is because Avalon shipped B2 and B3 within a month of each other.

I think we, with ROI'd Jupiters, will be very lucky people indeed, for we may grab a large chunk of the network hash-rate that might not be challenge for the next couple years if the price remains below $200.

Democracy is the original 51% attack.
Anenome5
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August 27, 2013, 06:34:45 AM
 #7257

What they have said is that they want to protect their customers' investment, correct? The way I see it, lowering their prices is protecting their market share
A lowered price allows you to ROI even though the difficulty has gone up. That's fair both to the buyer and their market share.


Democracy is the original 51% attack.
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August 27, 2013, 07:08:17 AM
 #7258

What they have said is that they want to protect their customers' investment, correct? The way I see it, lowering their prices is protecting their market share
A lowered price allows you to ROI even though the difficulty has gone up. That's fair both to the buyer and their market share.



Ok, maybe it's really a case of semantics and bad swedish to english translation, then. When they said they wanted to protect their customers, I got all warm and fuzzy inside thinking they were referring to those $11000 in Paypal transfers my wife nearly divorced me over.

I mistakenly thought the customers they were referring to were the same people who have actually sent them money to pay for a miner or two, not the metaphorical "everyone is our customer, even if they never considered spending a dime with us before they saw that we were the only company actually shipping ASICS". You know, the customer that doesn't exist yet, but will line up in droves in october for november delivered ASICs discounted nearly 40% from the month before.

Maybe I have a totally misplaced sense of entitlement, but I don't want KNC constantly levelling the playing field so that late-to-the-party miners don't have to pay a penalty for being tardy. I want early ordering preference and Pricing for gen 2 or a serious discount on november gen 1 machines so that I can stockpile hashing power during the dec - feb drought.
RChevalier
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August 27, 2013, 07:51:50 AM
 #7259

This is with a ridiculously high % per month increase in Diff (76%), and no increase in BTC value/dollar,  which I consider worst case scenario.

Any idea what would be a more realistic monthly increase %?

I realize it will start tapering off at some point but the latest increases are making me cringe.
imbladednow
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August 27, 2013, 07:57:40 AM
 #7260

KNCminder's choice of pricing models doesn't dictate my ROI calculations. What dictates my ROI calculations is what else I could do with the money, which is buy Bitcoins. Any idiot can buy Bitcoins -- if buying a miner is worse than buying Bitcoins, then only an idiot would buy a miner. If it's better than buying Bitcoins, then people who would otherwise buy Bitcoins should consider buying miners. From a realistic standpoint, your choices are to buy a miner, buy Bitcoins, or do something else.

Yes, but no one knows for sure what is best action now. Everyone just estimate the future

I need crypto in my life and garbage out of it.
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