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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3007984 times)
jmw74
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August 30, 2013, 01:45:15 PM
 #7741

...
Do you understand what pre-order means?  
Once you placed your pre-order*, you lose your choice to "not buy" if the price makes no sense.  You either mine, or put your miner into a Hefty garbage bag & set it on the curb.  If, by the time you receive your miner, it becomes blatantly obvious that said miner will never ROI, wat do?  

*KNC pre-orders made through PayPal leave open a refund option, but that's not the case for most pre-orders -- those are locked in.

Huh?  Your point now is that if we'll never get ROI then we'll... what?  Never get ROI?  Thanks for that brilliant tautology.

The question here is about odds of achieving ROI which I said is very difficult to predict.  Do you want to address that or not?

No.  My point is people will continue to mine as long as the price of BTC is greater than the cost of electricity burned to produce them.  This doesn't suggest anything close to ROI.
My secondary point:  I'm willing to answer your questions, no matter how silly they are.  What would you like me to address, now?

Ok that is at least a legitimate point, but one I already knew.  Yes, miners will be plugged in as long as they produce more btc than they cost to run - it doesn't matter how much the owner paid for the miner.  But it doesn't make ROI any more predictable.  

The reason I originally gave still holds.  If (as you say), nearly everyone who mines takes a loss, it won't take long for everyone to realize this is happening.  You don't have to wait until the miner is shut off to know if it will see ROI.  It's clear pretty soon after receiving it (2 months, max?), if not much sooner.  Heck, some people get ROI after a few weeks, others know they will never get ROI even before they receive it.

So, if, (as you say), nearly everyone is taking a loss, after max two months, everyone will know that the mining equipment pricing is too high and stop ordering them.  Can you see the feedback loop here?  Too high prices -> unprofitable -> reduced sales -> reduced difficulty -> lower prices -> profitable -> increased sales -> increased difficulty, etc.

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pupsudio
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August 30, 2013, 01:49:55 PM
 #7742

Too bad for all the suckers who paid in bitcoins though, eh? Especially since you can't get a bitcoin refund.

KNC does bank transfer refunds Wink

At current value. Not your original amount of bitcoins.

They don't hold any bitcoins or at least I don't think so.

All they got are fiat. Bitpay > Fiat > KNC

What the hell is a bank transfer refund? How long do they take? How much do they cost? Then you have to get that money back into an exchange, pay the exchange fee again.
600watt
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August 30, 2013, 01:50:50 PM
 #7743

Too bad for all the suckers who paid in bitcoins though, eh? Especially since you can't get a bitcoin refund.

KNC does bank transfer refunds Wink

At current value. Not your original amount of bitcoins.

They don't hold any bitcoins or at least I don't think so.

All they got are fiat. Bitpay > Fiat > KNC

What the hell is a bank transfer refund? How long do they take? How much do they cost? Then you have to get that money back into an exchange, pay the exchange fee again.

see: doomed to mine...  Wink
plasmoske
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August 30, 2013, 01:54:29 PM
 #7744

What the hell is a bank transfer refund? How long do they take? How much do they cost? Then you have to get that money back into an exchange, pay the exchange fee again.

Well I'm from Australia. I'm using slang. Well the international wording for it would be refund via international bank wire.

They can take anywhere from 3 to 10 days. Depends on your bank. Free I'd imagine. Email them. They are actually pretty fast to reply.

Depends what currency they sent. I'm assuming USD since miners were paid by USD.
jmw74
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August 30, 2013, 01:54:56 PM
 #7745

Personally I'd calculate KNC if it's profitable or not by $ not BTC. Since it was purchased by fiat and not bitcoins (paypal/bank transfer etc).

Too bad for all the suckers who paid in bitcoins though, eh? Especially since you can't get a bitcoin refund.

It doesn't really matter how you pay.  If you sell bitcoins and then pay with paypal, it's the same as if you used bitpay (at least in terms of your own balance sheet).

Using btc to buy a miner is a hedge against btc prices temporarily dropping.  If prices drop, mining becomes easier, so you can recover more bitcoins.  Personally I spent about 15% of my btc on mining equip for this purpose.  At this point it's not looking like a winning bet, but there's plenty of ways it could turn around.
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August 30, 2013, 01:55:50 PM
 #7746

...
Do you understand what pre-order means?  
Once you placed your pre-order*, you lose your choice to "not buy" if the price makes no sense.  You either mine, or put your miner into a Hefty garbage bag & set it on the curb.  If, by the time you receive your miner, it becomes blatantly obvious that said miner will never ROI, wat do?  

*KNC pre-orders made through PayPal leave open a refund option, but that's not the case for most pre-orders -- those are locked in.

Huh?  Your point now is that if we'll never get ROI then we'll... what?  Never get ROI?  Thanks for that brilliant tautology.

The question here is about odds of achieving ROI which I said is very difficult to predict.  Do you want to address that or not?

No.  My point is people will continue to mine as long as the price of BTC is greater than the cost of electricity burned to produce them.  This doesn't suggest anything close to ROI.
My secondary point:  I'm willing to answer your questions, no matter how silly they are.  What would you like me to address, now?

Ok that is at least a legitimate point, but one I already knew.  Yes, miners will be plugged in as long as they produce more btc than they cost to run - it doesn't matter how much the owner paid for the miner.  But it doesn't make ROI any more predictable.  

The reason I originally gave still holds.  If (as you say), nearly everyone who mines takes a loss, it won't take long for everyone to realize this is happening.  You don't have to wait until the miner is shut off to know if it will see ROI.  It's clear pretty soon after receiving it (2 months, max?), if not much sooner.  Heck, some people get ROI after a few weeks, others know they will never get ROI even before they receive it.

So, if, (as you say), nearly everyone is taking a loss, after max two months, everyone will know that the mining equipment pricing is too high and stop ordering them.  Can you see the feedback loop here?  Too high prices -> unprofitable -> reduced sales -> reduced difficulty -> lower prices -> profitable -> increased sales -> increased difficulty, etc.

What i'm pointing to is *pre-orders break the feedback loop*.  The miners that will be coming online in the predictable future are already bought & paid for.  There is no feedback loop involved -- no governor, the buyers are locked in.  All the way into next year.  The only choice is unloading the gear to a greater fool, or mining as long as possible to recoup some of the wasted money.  The difficulty will keep going up as more pre-orders are built & put online.
Something like that.
plasmoske
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August 30, 2013, 02:01:20 PM
 #7747

Feedback only works when it's truly delay incoming. With mining, the miner operators (you) have a choice whether or not you want to put your miner online.

Pre-ordering a miner does not guaranteed that miner will be putting it up online. Period.

If the electricity per day costs $4 and you're only earn $3, would you do it? I can see some people doing that for a while but not for a long time.

In the long run, it's the 28nm who are the winners.

And yes I'm aware of the electricity rate <> mining revenue. That point isn't here yet and won't be for a while.

Most of the negativity here are stemming from people looking at the calculators. They're very flawed and misleading.
pupsudio
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August 30, 2013, 02:02:50 PM
 #7748

Certainly the feedback loop has caught up to people? I mean, who is ordering from cointerra? Who thinks there is any chance of a btc profit there? We have the required feedback to know it's a bad idea, yet their hardware will continue to be produced.

What about people paying $7000 for a Jupiter? The feedback is all over the place yet I guess people are still ordering, but at this point, even if people don't order, that hardware will get used.
jmw74
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August 30, 2013, 02:08:28 PM
 #7749

...
Do you understand what pre-order means?  
Once you placed your pre-order*, you lose your choice to "not buy" if the price makes no sense.  You either mine, or put your miner into a Hefty garbage bag & set it on the curb.  If, by the time you receive your miner, it becomes blatantly obvious that said miner will never ROI, wat do?  

*KNC pre-orders made through PayPal leave open a refund option, but that's not the case for most pre-orders -- those are locked in.

Huh?  Your point now is that if we'll never get ROI then we'll... what?  Never get ROI?  Thanks for that brilliant tautology.

The question here is about odds of achieving ROI which I said is very difficult to predict.  Do you want to address that or not?

No.  My point is people will continue to mine as long as the price of BTC is greater than the cost of electricity burned to produce them.  This doesn't suggest anything close to ROI.
My secondary point:  I'm willing to answer your questions, no matter how silly they are.  What would you like me to address, now?

Ok that is at least a legitimate point, but one I already knew.  Yes, miners will be plugged in as long as they produce more btc than they cost to run - it doesn't matter how much the owner paid for the miner.  But it doesn't make ROI any more predictable.  

The reason I originally gave still holds.  If (as you say), nearly everyone who mines takes a loss, it won't take long for everyone to realize this is happening.  You don't have to wait until the miner is shut off to know if it will see ROI.  It's clear pretty soon after receiving it (2 months, max?), if not much sooner.  Heck, some people get ROI after a few weeks, others know they will never get ROI even before they receive it.

So, if, (as you say), nearly everyone is taking a loss, after max two months, everyone will know that the mining equipment pricing is too high and stop ordering them.  Can you see the feedback loop here?  Too high prices -> unprofitable -> reduced sales -> reduced difficulty -> lower prices -> profitable -> increased sales -> increased difficulty, etc.

What i'm pointing to is *pre-orders break the feedback loop*.  The miners that will be coming online in the predictable future are already bought & paid for.  There is no feedback loop involved -- no governor, the buyers are locked in.  All the way into next year.  The only choice is unloading the gear to a greater fool, or mining as long as possible to recoup some of the wasted money.  The difficulty will keep going up as more pre-orders are built & put online.
Something like that.


Yup, that is true, there is a delay between paying and beginning to mine.  However, there has been a market for people selling their pre-order place in line so that should mitigate the effect you describe.  They weren't locked in.

I do agree though that with KNCMiner you *are* locked in.  You can't sell your place in line because a) you don't know it and b) it's not clear that being first in line will result in receiving your order significantly earlier than anyone else.  That's a big mistake on KNC's part, IMO.

That's one thing BFL did right - they at least allowed a secondary market to exist.
jmw74
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August 30, 2013, 02:18:20 PM
 #7750

Certainly the feedback loop has caught up to people? I mean, who is ordering from cointerra? Who thinks there is any chance of a btc profit there? We have the required feedback to know it's a bad idea, yet their hardware will continue to be produced.

What about people paying $7000 for a Jupiter? The feedback is all over the place yet I guess people are still ordering, but at this point, even if people don't order, that hardware will get used.

In theory, at least, that should keep KNC (and other producers) honest.  They make their best guess how much a Jupiter will earn mining, let's say 50 btc.  If they price it at 100btc, no one buys it and they're left mining with it, receiving only 50btc.  If they price it at 55btc, it's more likely to be sold and beating KNC's own estimate of what they'd earn if it doesn't sell.

Unfortunately there are a lot of greedy and foolish people out there willing to overpay, and if KNC counts on this, it distorts the prices.
pupsudio
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August 30, 2013, 02:18:44 PM
 #7751

I do agree though that with KNCMiner you *are* locked in.  You can't sell your place in line because a) you don't know it and b) it's not clear that being first in line will result in receiving your order significantly earlier than anyone else.

c) they won't let you
cognoscente
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August 30, 2013, 02:21:06 PM
 #7752

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-32
BigLad
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August 30, 2013, 02:21:52 PM
 #7753

Surprised while everyone seems to be bickering heres the latest update...

https://www.kncminer.com/news

Quote
Small Update
8/30/2013 2:01:00 PM
Ok so a few of announcements;

Firstly, let us address the small competition KnCMiner held on Bitcointalk.org to create the phrase chosen to populate all our boards;

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg3019140#msg3019140

The entries were brilliant, there were some genuine laugh out loud choices, as well as a variety of creative mash-ups with reference to space and Bitcoin mining. We did take note of entries within our main thread, as well as the thread dwdoc started, and the later thread included in the ‘Newbie’ section started by happyagnostic. So we promise, no one was overlooked. Whilst there were several honourable mentions, including;

Commanderuk – Difficulties mastered are opportunities won.

600watt – Mine the Gap.

Kaerf – “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on the brink of second bailout for banks”

The joint – where zeros and ones become heroes and fun.

The Avenger – “A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is a reality” – John Lennon

BigLad – Uranus is next… (not really but that got a superb reaction)

There was however one clear winner, and whilst a lot of consideration has been given into stating what that is, we’re in two minds about revealing it until the boards are in our hands. So we would like to tease you a little further about what that maybe, but in all honesty we all agreed upon the choice as soon as we saw it.

We have sent the member a private message, and have just sent him the final design for his approval. He has agreed to keep quiet, until such point as he is welcome to claim total credit.

KnCMiner do have boards in our possession to use in the meantime for testing purposes, so having the controller boards printed with the phrase will not delay us in any way, but that design has now been optimised, The order has now been placed and we are very happy with the result.

Secondly with regards to CGminer, and it’s opensource protocol we’ve been able to configure our device unassisted and made a greater than 30% performance increase using the underlying code, for which we would like to thank both kano and ckolivas with their outstanding contribution to the community.

Next we wish to address the concerns surrounding why we have suggested power supplies capable of overcompensating for our promised maximum power consumption = 1.6 W/GH/s. Again, the answer lies within our motto of under-promising, and over-delivering, but this time we wish to extend the margins to yourselves and ensue you have enough power to allow for the additional hashrate our devices are certain to supply.

Finally we wish to confirm that yes we are still on track for our delivery towards the end of September.

Thanks,

KnCMiner Team.

www.kncminer.com
timmmers
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August 30, 2013, 02:24:41 PM
 #7754

I kind of feel like all this mining hardware is going to pay off, in USD, not so much in btc. Not even close in terms of bitcoins, but it will be huge to the exchange rate.

That makes no sense.  If it doesn't pay off in bitcoins, then you're better off buying bitcoins instead of a miner.

And what do you buy bitcoins with?

He's right. The initial cost is in flat not BTC which you've had to buy or obtain in some way that cost you flat.
I could just as easily say that I could make more trading BTC with leverage, or trading gold....but that's not the point, nor the topic of this thread...it's about KnC Miners and mining.

In fact if you buy a miner and do decent research and pick one like KnC you double your chances of a profit...one chance being that you get past break even, the other that even if you don't in the near future your mined BTC will eventually rise in value and give you a better return than your original dollar/pound/euro investment. Plus you have a rig that might have value in the future.
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August 30, 2013, 02:28:23 PM
 #7755

Quote
but that design has now been optimised

Sounds good.
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August 30, 2013, 02:32:18 PM
 #7756

https://www.kncminer.com/news

Quote
Small Update
8/30/2013 2:01:00 PM
Ok so a few of announcements;
....
Finally we wish to confirm that yes we are still on track for our delivery towards the end of September.

Thanks,

KnCMiner Team.

www.kncminer.com

ok. so no chips, no working boards with thoose chips, no stability tests etc.
3 weeks left
good luck, bfl has chips few months before delivery, you have no chips and 3 weeks.
jmw74
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August 30, 2013, 02:34:35 PM
 #7757

I kind of feel like all this mining hardware is going to pay off, in USD, not so much in btc. Not even close in terms of bitcoins, but it will be huge to the exchange rate.

That makes no sense.  If it doesn't pay off in bitcoins, then you're better off buying bitcoins instead of a miner.

And what do you buy bitcoins with?

He's right. The initial cost is in flat not BTC which you've had to buy or obtain in some way that cost you flat.
I could just as easily say that I could make more trading BTC with leverage, or trading gold....but that's not the point, nor the topic of this thread...it's about KnC Miners and mining.


The initial cost can be fiat or BTC, since KNC accepts bitpay.  If a Jupiter is 60 BTC and you don't think it will pay back > 60 BTC then you shouldn't buy one.  
ImI
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August 30, 2013, 02:35:24 PM
 #7758

https://www.kncminer.com/news

Quote
Small Update
8/30/2013 2:01:00 PM
Ok so a few of announcements;
....
Finally we wish to confirm that yes we are still on track for our delivery towards the end of September.

Thanks,

KnCMiner Team.

www.kncminer.com

ok. so no chips, no working boards with thoose chips, no stability tests etc.
3 weeks left
good luck, bfl has chips few months before delivery, you have no chips and 3 weeks.


you are so pathetic.
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August 30, 2013, 02:37:29 PM
 #7759

...
What i'm pointing to is *pre-orders break the feedback loop*.  The miners that will be coming online in the predictable future are already bought & paid for.  There is no feedback loop involved -- no governor, the buyers are locked in.  All the way into next year.  The only choice is unloading the gear to a greater fool, or mining as long as possible to recoup some of the wasted money.  The difficulty will keep going up as more pre-orders are built & put online.
Something like that.


Yup, that is true, there is a delay between paying and beginning to mine.  However, there has been a market for people selling their pre-order place in line so that should mitigate the effect you describe.  They weren't locked in.

I do agree though that with KNCMiner you *are* locked in.  You can't sell your place in line because a) you don't know it and b) it's not clear that being first in line will result in receiving your order significantly earlier than anyone else.  That's a big mistake on KNC's part, IMO.

That's one thing BFL did right - they at least allowed a secondary market to exist.

Buying & selling of pre-orders can't extinguish *any* of the hashrate that will go online once those pre-orders ship.
Once the pre-orders are placed, the hashrate *is* locked in.
Once X(MH/s) are pre-ordered, the hash rate can only increase, never decrease.  The only exceptions are refunds (though if the gear exists, it will be mined), and electricity costs making mining unprofitable for certain miners (unlikely in near-term).

My point is trivial -- there exists a plausible scenario where *all* the miners who have pre-ordered their gear will be mining at a loss.  This scenario is made more probable by the pre-order schemes and the constant influx of new ASIC manufacturers.  
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August 30, 2013, 02:38:44 PM
 #7760

That's why most people here have bbxx, crumbs, and kuroth on IGNORE.
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