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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3006809 times)
cambda
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September 02, 2013, 06:35:36 AM
 #8121

This is another reason why myself and others keep saying we haven't fully begun to enter the actual difficulty rise. CT is supposed to be shipping 2,000+ TH in one month, KNC is far above that, and so on/so forth. Leaps and bounds above current difficulty.

Im sceptical here, they might deliver so much in one month, but who will buy it after the price will be near production costs and way below ROI for minner ?


 
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September 02, 2013, 07:08:12 AM
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Wait your image shows that you will ROI by start of Jan? What the F are you on about then?

Dude, you are smoking fucking crack if you basing your assumptions off of difficulty 3.4 BILLION by March 2014... ASIC manufacturers would have to be selling these things like like toilet paper in order to reach that amount of difficulty and they simply are not going to be able to put that much hash power out quick enough to realize this difficulty within 6 months time.

Why?
A. Because at this point in the game if you didn't get in early enough to make seed capital for further investment, your probably not going to invest/reinvest. Less investors = less rigs = Less Difficulty

B. Guys just like you will continue to scoff at a 20% return (which by the way is an awesome return within 6 months by any measure). And is based off of what you will get worst case if your Genesis Block charts stand correct assuming you have a Jupiter by October. (Referencing your Image, and assuming a switch-off date of March 2013)

C. The equipment that is in use today, will not be in use in 6 months... This shit isn't like CPU's where you still have people rockin Pentium 4's, the life expectancy of a ASIC is directly related to their profitability which as difficulty rises profitability decreases. Which again brings us back to the toilet paper analogy, people would have to be replacing/buy new equipment every 6 months to keep up. and even then, they would be switching off their Avalon batch 3 dinosaurs at this point. I don't see this happening.
 
D.After all the BFL bullshit, Avalon cancelling chip orders, hashfast, cointerra, and all the other so-called 28nm developers soliciting for December, when the the lions share of the potential performance will be ate up, manufacturers will have to be really pushing the envelope on the tech, and this will cost money, definitely within the thousand of dollars. very few other than the rich, and die-hard supporters will be buying in at this point.

E. Among other endeavors I am a firearms dealer and let me tell you some of the dynamics and concerns about flooding the market with product are very real in this business and apply to ASICs. Manufacturers of firearms go to great lengths to ensure they stay profitable and too much product hitting the streets too fast most definitely causes devaluation in this market. Gun manufacturers want to continue charging ridiculous prices for the few pieces of product they make so they limit how much product hits the distributors per month to keep the scarcity high and thus the prices high. This is no different for ASIC Manufacturers. At some point when the dust settles, and the guys that saw an opportunity to make a quick buck shutdown, your going to see ASIC manufacturers throttling the supply, and I firmly believe this is already happening and will only get worse as difficulty rises. They don't want to give these things away, and you can bet your ass they're not going to do it without making a handsome profit.

This is all speculation, however that is the exact point plasmoske, and everyone else in the forum is making. There are lots of mechanics to this whole thing that we don't even know about, let alone can calculate and at the end of the day its a dice roll, you wanna play? Go big or go home. If your too afraid of losing your money, stick with the stock market, or better yet T-Bonds. Just don't expect to make a 20% return within 6 months.
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September 02, 2013, 07:16:41 AM
 #8123




Wait your image shows that you will ROI by start of Jan? What the F are you on about then?

Dude, you are smoking fucking crack if you basing your assumptions off of difficulty 3.4 BILLION by March 2014... ASIC manufacturers would have to be selling these things like like toilet paper in order to reach that amount of difficulty and they simply are not going to be able to put that much hash power out quick enough to realize this difficulty within 6 months time.

Why?
A. Because at this point in the game if you didn't get in early enough to make seed capital for further investment, your probably not going to invest/reinvest. Less investors = less rigs = Less Difficulty

B. Guys just like you will continue to scoff at a 20% return (which by the way is an awesome return within 6 months by any measure). And is based off of what you will get worst case if your Genesis Block charts stand correct assuming you have a Jupiter by October. (Referencing your Image, and assuming a switch-off date of March 2013)

C. The equipment that is in use today, will not be in use in 6 months... This shit isn't like CPU's where you still have people rockin Pentium 4's, the life expectancy of a ASIC is directly related to their profitability which as difficulty rises profitability decreases. Which again brings us back to the toilet paper analogy, people would have to be replacing/buy new equipment every 6 months to keep up. and even then, they would be switching off their Avalon batch 3 dinosaurs at this point. I don't see this happening.
 
D.After all the BFL bullshit, Avalon cancelling chip orders, hashfast, cointerra, and all the other so-called 28nm developers soliciting for December, when the the lions share of the potential performance will be ate up, manufacturers will have to be really pushing the envelope on the tech, and this will cost money, definitely within the thousand of dollars. very few other than the rich, and die-hard supporters will be buying in at this point.

E. Among other endeavors I am a firearms dealer and let me tell you some of the dynamics and concerns about flooding the market with product are very real in this business and apply to ASICs. Manufacturers of firearms go to great lengths to ensure they stay profitable and too much product hitting the streets too fast most definitely causes devaluation in this market. Gun manufacturers want to continue charging ridiculous prices for the few pieces of product they make so they limit how much product hits the distributors per month to keep the scarcity high and thus the prices high. This is no different for ASIC Manufacturers. At some point when the dust settles, and the guys that saw an opportunity to make a quick buck shutdown, your going to see ASIC manufacturers throttling the supply, and I firmly believe this is already happening and will only get worse as difficulty rises. They don't want to give these things away, and you can bet your ass they're not going to do it without making a handsome profit.

This is all speculation, however that is the exact point plasmoske, and everyone else in the forum is making. There are lots of mechanics to this whole thing that we don't even know about, let alone can calculate and at the end of the day its a dice roll, you wanna play? Go big or go home. If your too afraid of losing your money, stick with the stock market, or better yet T-Bonds. Just don't expect to make a 20% return within 6 months.
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September 02, 2013, 07:53:42 AM
 #8124

This is another reason why myself and others keep saying we haven't fully begun to enter the actual difficulty rise. CT is supposed to be shipping 2,000+ TH in one month, KNC is far above that, and so on/so forth. Leaps and bounds above current difficulty.

Im sceptical here, they might deliver so much in one month, but who will buy it after the price will be near production costs and way below ROI for minner ?

The only people who worry about ROI are those who are mining bicoin purely for profit. In every thread on the hardware forum people are constantly whining about their precious ROI. My suggestion is instead of acting like parasitic profiteers, ask yourself 'how could I help further the bitcoin community?' The obvious answer from most people might be that without miners there is no bitcoin, which is true to some extent. But it seems a large proportion of profiteers cannot see past their own greed. My suggestion is that while bitcoin is still in its infancy try to educate and implement bitcoin wherever you can. Would you rather have a bubble driven currency? Or a currency that people will see as the standard?
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September 02, 2013, 08:22:45 AM
 #8125

The only people who worry about ROI are those who are mining bicoin purely for profit. In every thread on the hardware forum people are constantly whining about their precious ROI. My suggestion is instead of acting like parasitic profiteers, ask yourself 'how could I help further the bitcoin community?' The obvious answer from most people might be that without miners there is no bitcoin, which is true to some extent. But it seems a large proportion of profiteers cannot see past their own greed. My suggestion is that while bitcoin is still in its infancy try to educate and implement bitcoin wherever you can. Would you rather have a bubble driven currency? Or a currency that people will see as the standard?
This is mistaken on so many levels.

Mining for profit and ROI is not greed, it is an investment. You can mine for altruism if you want, but the rest of us feel fine mining for both profit -and- to prop up the network.

If you want something done and done right, find a way for people to make a profit doing it. It is not parasitic to profit! How dare you say so. It is parasitic to demand or imply that people should still mine when they're not profiting. There is not greater way to weaken the bitcoin network then to mine when it is unprofitable, thus preventing the difficulty coming back to reality. The mining power on the network will always be maximized when the profit from mining is just over the electricity costs on the average mining device.


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September 02, 2013, 08:26:07 AM
 #8126

This is another reason why myself and others keep saying we haven't fully begun to enter the actual difficulty rise. CT is supposed to be shipping 2,000+ TH in one month, KNC is far above that, and so on/so forth. Leaps and bounds above current difficulty.

Im sceptical here, they might deliver so much in one month, but who will buy it after the price will be near production costs and way below ROI for minner ?

The only people who worry about ROI are those who are mining bicoin purely for profit. In every thread on the hardware forum people are constantly whining about their precious ROI. My suggestion is instead of acting like parasitic profiteers, ask yourself 'how could I help further the bitcoin community?' The obvious answer from most people might be that without miners there is no bitcoin, which is true to some extent. But it seems a large proportion of profiteers cannot see past their own greed. My suggestion is that while bitcoin is still in its infancy try to educate and implement bitcoin wherever you can. Would you rather have a bubble driven currency? Or a currency that people will see as the standard?

+1

Amen to that ....use to think like that before
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September 02, 2013, 08:52:05 AM
 #8127

This is another reason why myself and others keep saying we haven't fully begun to enter the actual difficulty rise. CT is supposed to be shipping 2,000+ TH in one month, KNC is far above that, and so on/so forth. Leaps and bounds above current difficulty.

Im sceptical here, they might deliver so much in one month, but who will buy it after the price will be near production costs and way below ROI for minner ?

The only people who worry about ROI are those who are mining bicoin purely for profit. In every thread on the hardware forum people are constantly whining about their precious ROI. My suggestion is instead of acting like parasitic profiteers, ask yourself 'how could I help further the bitcoin community?' The obvious answer from most people might be that without miners there is no bitcoin, which is true to some extent. But it seems a large proportion of profiteers cannot see past their own greed. My suggestion is that while bitcoin is still in its infancy try to educate and implement bitcoin wherever you can. Would you rather have a bubble driven currency? Or a currency that people will see as the standard?

This.

I will take it a step further and try to appeal to that same greed, but with some thought behind it. You want these devices to be profitable longer? Find ways to make bitcoin more generally accepted. Right now it's a niche. A rather big niche, but still small cap stuff. Greed is not all negative, but it has to be moderated by thought and principle. At current exchange rates, the lifetime of these devices is pretty short. Not due to hardware failure, but due to diminishing returns. But if the value of the bitcoin doubles in that same period, it will significantly extend the life of the miner. If more things become priced in bitcoin rather than traditional fiat, it will extend even further, as the marginal value of a bitcoin becomes much more than simply it's fiat exchange rate.

For the purpose of full disclosure, I currently have no skin in the game and have not decided which company to go with when I do jump in. KNC is my first choice so far, but there are others that interest me. Bitfury is their closest competitor in my estimation, as they have already delivered and are clearly on track for October with their big unit. I do not expect to catch the leading edge, and I'm good with a 10 to 20 percent ROI over the near term, so long as it allows me to build capital in bitcoin for the next generation of miners (or to buy up large quantities of this generation as the prices drop. I have extensive knowledge of power generation, so If I'm making that sort of return, I can invest in that as an adjunct)

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September 02, 2013, 09:06:32 AM
 #8128

Quote
You want these devices to be profitable longer? Find ways to make bitcoin more generally accepted.
Believe it or not, the single greatest way to drive acceptance is for the price to rise considerably.

There's no one way to achieve that.

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September 02, 2013, 09:15:08 AM
 #8129

Quote
You want these devices to be profitable longer? Find ways to make bitcoin more generally accepted.
Believe it or not, the single greatest way to drive acceptance is for the price to rise considerably.

There's no one way to achieve that.

Price stabililty is more important than price rise for the general public.

The single way to drive acceptance is accessibility.

Accessibility for the general public to exchange fiat to crypto, as well as vice versa, and known retailer adoption is the greatest hurdle.

That's incidentally the area where the greatest profits to be made are. Innovating BTC as a mainstream currency, and payment mechanism. Mining is just pluging in a box and casual maintence, even that can be outsourced. Which is why ASIC mining profit margins will always go the way of GPU mining. The people who don't get that are disolusioned by the calculators formally touted by Butterfly Labs, and Bitsyncom. They dream of giving up work and living off mining profits which is nuts. Whilst profit exists margins will be squeezed closer to that of electricity expenidture incurred. It's never going to be that easy to profit, or that unnoticed. Likewise those brandishing the Genesis Block calc are propose equally unrealistc and untenable multiplications of network hashrate over more than a few months, where upon it will level out. There's no compounding, there will be no gradual increases, just spikes and levelling as and when manufacturers start shipping stock. The gradual rise comes from when products will eventually be sold from stock, when, and if that happens.

Price rise only positively affects holders at the time of the rise itself. Wink

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September 02, 2013, 09:36:45 AM
 #8130


[/quote]

Price stabililty is more important than price rise for the general public.

[/quote]

I'm with you on that one - people are more comfortable using a currency if they have a good gut feel about what it's worth. Bitcoin is such a moving target from one month to the next at the moment - you can go on holiday and by the time you come back it's value has changed 50%. I also don't think a coin where one unit is worth several hundred dollars is doing itself any favours either. Suddenly you're talking about needing to get your heads around transactions of 0.05 or, 0.005 (where those sums actually have a real value) and it just looks so different to what you find in the fiat world. If this was the stock market, they'd just do a share split to keep the numbers down - can't do that with Bitcoin. Will it put me off? No but I do think it will slow down mass adoption.
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September 02, 2013, 10:00:54 AM
 #8131


Quote

Price stabililty is more important than price rise for the general public.


I'm with you on that one - people are more comfortable using a currency if they have a good gut feel about what it's worth. Bitcoin is such a moving target from one month to the next at the moment - you can go on holiday and by the time you come back it's value has changed 50%. I also don't think a coin where one unit is worth several hundred dollars is doing itself any favours either. Suddenly you're talking about needing to get your heads around transactions of 0.05 or, 0.005 (where those sums actually have a real value) and it just looks so different to what you find in the fiat world. If this was the stock market, they'd just do a share split to keep the numbers down - can't do that with Bitcoin. Will it put me off? No but I do think it will slow down mass adoption.

Ya, but that will invesitably becomeknown as Satoshis, one Bitcoin will yield a millionairesque status, and thus a denomination to aspire to, as opposed to spend...

(potentially)

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September 02, 2013, 10:10:13 AM
 #8132

 ...so, quite all of you are saying that I should finalize my two june KNC pre-orders (1 Jupiter + 1 Saturn), both #15xx orders ;P ;P ;P ?!?!?!?!?!

It isn't right?!?!? Grin


cheers!!! Smiley
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September 02, 2013, 10:12:46 AM
 #8133

...so, quite all of you are saying that I should finalize my two june KNC pre-orders (1 Jupiter + 1 Saturn), both #15xx orders ;P ;P ;P ?!?!?!?!?!

It isn't right?!?!? Grin


cheers!!! Smiley
-anykeywhy-

Unfilled pre-orders are not valid anymore. You had a bit over a week to do that in June.
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September 02, 2013, 10:20:40 AM
 #8134

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You want these devices to be profitable longer? Find ways to make bitcoin more generally accepted.
Believe it or not, the single greatest way to drive acceptance is for the price to rise considerably.

There's no one way to achieve that.

I agree, in the exchange ratio sense. This experiment has to be multi pronged or it's going to fail. One way that is already organically evolving is as a reserve currency, which makes mining important in both the near and long term. Right now the world has basically three reserve currencies (0ne of them is a category), and two of the three are on precarious grounds. Those three are The US dollar, the Euro, and precious metals. Of the three, given current economic conditions, precious metals are the least liquid but the most likely to retain their perceived value.

Bitcoin is poised to be in this category, as demonstrated by Cyprus. People in that crisis perceived the bitcoin to be safer than dollars or euros due to it's inability to be easily confiscated by a central "authority". This should be capitalized upon.

However, for that to be valid, it ALSO needs to become more widely used. I also think LiteCoin is well positioned in this as well, for smaller purchases. The many and various altcoins besides these, while interesting and possibly profitable in their own right, are at least currently peripheral to these two.

Rising value against fiat helps this, but the wild roller coaster does not. The more things that are INITIALLY priced in BTC or LTC, the less of a roller coaster it will be. A relatively steady deflation is good for the currency, a rocketship parabola is not.

I do not profess to have all the answers. Not even many of them, just a good knowledge of how hard currency and soft currency has performed historically. Bitcoin is a different species of currency, with elements of both the hard and soft, therefore it is well positioned, with enough backing, to replace or seriously compete with existing currencies IF we can get more people to accept it. Both as exchange for goods and service and as a store of value. The fact of it's scarcity, even though artificial, helps both sides of this equation.

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September 02, 2013, 10:45:36 AM
 #8135

...so, quite all of you are saying that I should finalize my two june KNC pre-orders (1 Jupiter + 1 Saturn), both #15xx orders ;P ;P ;P ?!?!?!?!?!

It isn't right?!?!? Grin


cheers!!! Smiley
-anykeywhy-

Unfilled pre-orders are not valid anymore. You had a bit over a week to do that in June.


My orders are still valid and in the order number queue... (plus: as KNC stated, they also have can satisfy other added orders in-time..)
If you have any SURE/VERIFIED news, please report it back and I will thank you! Wink

cheers! Smiley
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September 02, 2013, 10:50:55 AM
 #8136

...so, quite all of you are saying that I should finalize my two june KNC pre-orders (1 Jupiter + 1 Saturn), both #15xx orders ;P ;P ;P ?!?!?!?!?!

It isn't right?!?!? Grin


cheers!!! Smiley
-anykeywhy-

Unfilled pre-orders are not valid anymore. You had a bit over a week to do that in June.


My orders are still valid and in the order number queue... (plus: as KNC stated, they also have can satisfy other added orders in-time..)
If you have any SURE/VERIFIED news, please report it back and I will thank you! Wink

cheers! Smiley


As far as i know you have to pay the full order for it to be shipped, and the que is based on paid orders.
Thank god ive paid for mine already

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September 02, 2013, 10:52:06 AM
 #8137

Everybody on this board cracks me up. Keep up the good work KNC and lets see some miners.  Cool

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September 02, 2013, 11:01:06 AM
 #8138

This is another reason why myself and others keep saying we haven't fully begun to enter the actual difficulty rise. CT is supposed to be shipping 2,000+ TH in one month, KNC is far above that, and so on/so forth. Leaps and bounds above current difficulty.

Im sceptical here, they might deliver so much in one month, but who will buy it after the price will be near production costs and way below ROI for minner ?

The only people who worry about ROI are those who are mining bicoin purely for profit. In every thread on the hardware forum people are constantly whining about their precious ROI. My suggestion is instead of acting like parasitic profiteers, ask yourself 'how could I help further the bitcoin community?' The obvious answer from most people might be that without miners there is no bitcoin, which is true to some extent. But it seems a large proportion of profiteers cannot see past their own greed. My suggestion is that while bitcoin is still in its infancy try to educate and implement bitcoin wherever you can. Would you rather have a bubble driven currency? Or a currency that people will see as the standard?

You want a money system to succeed based on ... altruism?
Drink up!

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September 02, 2013, 11:04:31 AM
 #8139

untill now knc
have delay
because no real photo of chips
and only a word that he will sent at end of will be ready

knc will be out of time for sure

Put your money where your mouth is:

http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

It surprises me there is lil more no bets considering such optimism here
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September 02, 2013, 11:16:59 AM
 #8140

...so, quite all of you are saying that I should finalize my two june KNC pre-orders (1 Jupiter + 1 Saturn), both #15xx orders ;P ;P ;P ?!?!?!?!?!

It isn't right?!?!? Grin


cheers!!! Smiley
-anykeywhy-

Unfilled pre-orders are not valid anymore. You had a bit over a week to do that in June.


My orders are still valid and in the order number queue... (plus: as KNC stated, they also have can satisfy other added orders in-time..)
If you have any SURE/VERIFIED news, please report it back and I will thank you! Wink

cheers! Smiley

As far as i know you have to pay the full order for it to be shipped, and the que is based on paid orders.
Thank god ive paid for mine already



I've contacted KNC to solve any doubt!!! Wink They stated that they would alert customers when purchased goods payment should become DONE, then give us one week to finalize the payment!!!  Wink 

I'll report back as soon as I will receive reply from KNC!!!
cheers! Smiley
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