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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3011941 times)
Anenome5
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August 27, 2013, 06:28:40 AM
 #7261

Wow..  Just Freaking Wow..

So glad I got out just in the nick of time..



Market & Hardware Parameters
KnCMiner
Jupiter

1
Hardware Values
Hash Rate (GH/s)   
Power Use (W)   
Cost of Hardware
($)
 
Initial Mining Date   
2013
October

 
Additional Costs
Shipping Costs   
Misc Costs (psu, cables, etc)   
Pool Fee (%)   
Network Stats
Current Difficulty (MM)   
Difficulty Increase / Month
(%)
 
Conversion and Electricity
Conversion Rate ($/BTC)   
Conversion Increase / Month (%)   
Electricity Costs ($/kWh)   


Mining Payout Scheduleby The Genesis Block
USD
Display Currency

Share your analysis:   
Break Even Period:   140 days   Total Fixed Costs:   $7250
Max Profit:   $361 (May-14) - 4.97%   Monthly Power Costs:   $60.5
Month   Difficulty (MM)   Time per
Block (days)   Monthly Revenue   Monthly
Profit   Cumulative
Return
Oct-13   204   25   $3,530   $3,470   $(3,780)
Nov-13   358   45   $2,010   $1,950   $(1,830)
Dec-13   631   78   $1,140   $1,080   $(749)
Jan-14   1110   138   $648   $588   $(161)
Feb-14   1954   243   $368   $308   $146
Mar-14   3439   427   $209   $149   $295
Apr-14   6053   752   $119   $58   $353
May-14   10654   1324   $68   $7   $361
Jun-14   18751   2330   $38   $-22   $338
Jul-14   33002   4101   $22   $-39   $300
Aug-14   58083   7218   $12   $-48   $252
Sep-14   102226   12704   $7   $-53   $198

Just to put your absurd calculations to reality.

January Difficulty of 1110M would be 7 Petahash (7000TH)

You're next calculation of February shows that close to doubling at 13 Petahash (13,000TH)

Then if we move on to the next absurd calculation of March at around 25 Petahash (25,000TH) you start to see how retarded using a % calculation becomes.

Now for some more perspective!

7 Petahash = 17,500 Jupiters = 70,000 Packages = 280,000 ASIC Chips (Remember each one of KnC's Packages has 4 "Chips" inside)

Are you starting to see how unbelievable your calculations are now?

If for some reason it did get to 7 Petahashes with all the other vendors coming online, do you honestly think it will go to 13 in a Month? and then 25 the next month?

Do you think anyone will buy a machine for $5,000 in January when it is making $300/month and dropping?

*Mind Blown*
Exactly. People bailing over obviously impossible difficulty rates are math-challenged. I expect the diff to level off at around 400 mill or so. The latest jump is because Avalon shipped B2 and B3 within a month of each other.

I think we, with ROI'd Jupiters, will be very lucky people indeed, for we may grab a large chunk of the network hash-rate that might not be challenge for the next couple years if the price remains below $200.

Democracy is the original 51% attack.
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August 27, 2013, 06:34:45 AM
 #7262

What they have said is that they want to protect their customers' investment, correct? The way I see it, lowering their prices is protecting their market share
A lowered price allows you to ROI even though the difficulty has gone up. That's fair both to the buyer and their market share.


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August 27, 2013, 07:08:17 AM
 #7263

What they have said is that they want to protect their customers' investment, correct? The way I see it, lowering their prices is protecting their market share
A lowered price allows you to ROI even though the difficulty has gone up. That's fair both to the buyer and their market share.



Ok, maybe it's really a case of semantics and bad swedish to english translation, then. When they said they wanted to protect their customers, I got all warm and fuzzy inside thinking they were referring to those $11000 in Paypal transfers my wife nearly divorced me over.

I mistakenly thought the customers they were referring to were the same people who have actually sent them money to pay for a miner or two, not the metaphorical "everyone is our customer, even if they never considered spending a dime with us before they saw that we were the only company actually shipping ASICS". You know, the customer that doesn't exist yet, but will line up in droves in october for november delivered ASICs discounted nearly 40% from the month before.

Maybe I have a totally misplaced sense of entitlement, but I don't want KNC constantly levelling the playing field so that late-to-the-party miners don't have to pay a penalty for being tardy. I want early ordering preference and Pricing for gen 2 or a serious discount on november gen 1 machines so that I can stockpile hashing power during the dec - feb drought.
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August 27, 2013, 07:51:50 AM
 #7264

This is with a ridiculously high % per month increase in Diff (76%), and no increase in BTC value/dollar,  which I consider worst case scenario.

Any idea what would be a more realistic monthly increase %?

I realize it will start tapering off at some point but the latest increases are making me cringe.
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August 27, 2013, 07:57:40 AM
 #7265

KNCminder's choice of pricing models doesn't dictate my ROI calculations. What dictates my ROI calculations is what else I could do with the money, which is buy Bitcoins. Any idiot can buy Bitcoins -- if buying a miner is worse than buying Bitcoins, then only an idiot would buy a miner. If it's better than buying Bitcoins, then people who would otherwise buy Bitcoins should consider buying miners. From a realistic standpoint, your choices are to buy a miner, buy Bitcoins, or do something else.

Yes, but no one knows for sure what is best action now. Everyone just estimate the future

I need crypto in my life and garbage out of it.
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August 27, 2013, 07:59:34 AM
 #7266

Ok, newbie here. I have a Jupiter and a Saturn on order, with non specific shipping dates. I am hoping that KNC clarifies or changes their policy regarding November price drops. Are these prices good for everyone or only customers like myself that have tied up over $10000 (some people have given far more than that) in capital for several months all in good faith?  I believe they need to set a moratorium on all shipping for a set period of time before they ship the reduced price units, or offer the reduced price rigs to pre-sale buyers at an earlier date. This would prevent the guy who gets the last $8000 Jupiter from getting steamrolled by the guy with a $5000 rig that is only a few days younger.

In reality, KNC's biggest customers are going to be us, those who make the biggest returns the earliest with their 1st gen rigs. We are the most likely to re-invest our mined BTC into more hardware. They need to make sure they treat us right.

Right now people are laughing at Cointerra for offering a 2Ths machine for $15750. Honestly, if my 600 Ghs has mined anywhere close to that by early next year, I see spending that kind of money on more hashing power as viable. The roughly $11200 I have tied up now is a long term investment. If I were in this for the quick buck, I'd have invested in something else, but instead I plan on re-investing in my infrastructure, and hopefully in the future the BTC mining income will be steady and predictable as the difficulty skyrockets then levels off.

The way I see it, as difficulty approaches the 1.5 - 2 Billion mark,  it will become very difficult to enter the market as a miner or as a hardware vendor. It's always going to cost several million dollars to develop an ASIC, but the BTC pie is finite and new miners won't be able to justify spending $thousands on a machine that might not pay for itself for several years. That means the pool of possible customers will shrink as mining becomes less profitable. Less customers means higher priced hardware and the guarantee of more dreaded pre-sales.

At 2 billion difficulty 2Ths mines about 14Btc a month. By today's standard, that 2Ths of mining power should only cost 20btc. Not gonna happen. Atleast not in the arguable future. I see the playing field becoming dominated by large ASIC farms populated by 2 or 3 major manufacturers. People expecting to turn on a magic money machine and start collecting a paycheck are delusional. Mining is going to become an arms race, and anyone who isn't dumping the vast majority of their BTC back into hardware until difficulty plateaus is going to lose out in the end, or have a very short run of profitability.

Alright that was more of a Unabomber manifesto than a proper first post, but I have been thinking of this since I heard about the November price drop. Anyone have any clue what the second gen KNC machines are going to be like? Prices, performance? I would rather stay with KNC, but if I have the money to spend and a different manufacturer is offering a better deal (and actually delivering product during December, January and February) I might have to change allegiances.

Seriously, I don't want to have to deal with stuff like Bitfury, where everything is cobbled together, held together with fishing line and drinking straws,  and programmed by my old Gameboy.

Good first post.
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August 27, 2013, 08:56:22 AM
 #7267

KNCminder's choice of pricing models doesn't dictate my ROI calculations. What dictates my ROI calculations is what else I could do with the money, which is buy Bitcoins. Any idiot can buy Bitcoins -- if buying a miner is worse than buying Bitcoins, then only an idiot would buy a miner. If it's better than buying Bitcoins, then people who would otherwise buy Bitcoins should consider buying miners. From a realistic standpoint, your choices are to buy a miner, buy Bitcoins, or do something else.

Yes, but no one knows for sure what is best action now. Everyone just estimate the future
Yep. The key unknown is future difficulty.

I am an employee of Ripple. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKatz
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August 27, 2013, 09:16:52 AM
 #7268

Just to put your absurd calculations to reality.

January Difficulty of 1110M would be 7 Petahash (7000TH)

You're next calculation of February shows that close to doubling at 13 Petahash (13,000TH)

Then if we move on to the next absurd calculation of March at around 25 Petahash (25,000TH) you start to see how retarded using a % calculation becomes.

Now for some more perspective!

7 Petahash = 17,500 Jupiters = 70,000 Packages = 280,000 ASIC Chips (Remember each one of KnC's Packages has 4 "Chips" inside)

Are you starting to see how unbelievable your calculations are now?

If for some reason it did get to 7 Petahashes with all the other vendors coming online, do you honestly think it will go to 13 in a Month? and then 25 the next month?

Do you think anyone will buy a machine for $5,000 in January when it is making $300/month and dropping?

*Mind Blown*

I think 7-9PH will hit the network by early 2014.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=278384.0;all lists 3.9TH
I think KnC have much more than 500TH, they've been selling since June, and are due to ship next month.  HF on the other hand has not taped out yet, and sold out 550 units in <2-3 weeks.

This 3.9PH estimate does not include BFL, Alydian, ASICMiner gen 2, Avalon gen 2, labcoin, cointerra or xcrowd.
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August 27, 2013, 12:52:31 PM
 #7269

This thread becomes interesting every day.. Grin

BTC: 152uFGxTKLqFFBcogXgtFUanv1jaTB18ox    LTC:  LQ5zGYpNgXZ9CHbavbX7FC9HSRzv8ZQdUC

https://www.kncminer.com/?resellerid=127
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August 27, 2013, 01:49:12 PM
 #7270

an excellent reason to use wifi indeed, would stop a cablemodem, or dsl modem spike in its tracks.... but if I'm not mistaken, most wifi routers are already pre-configured as you say, with up-link on the RJ-45 side & down-link on the wi-fi side... or am I missing something?


Perhaps you are missing a spike on the AC line?

WiFi will not negate the lightning hazard thru the AC.

A smart miner will have a surge protector AT the miner.
Surge protectors with telco, coax, and ethernet ports are common.
A UPS would be even better so you can mine thru brown/black outs.
You would need a very big UPS to mine for more than a few minutes during a blackout though.

Everything in the chain needs lightning/surge protection!
Miners will come to a screeching halt if your upstream equipment goes poof.

Even though I posted a link to a WiFi solution I do not advocate WiFi for mining.
There are security/reliability issues.

The origonal conversation stemmed from different utility companies sharing/not sharing grounds, so if your cable internet isn't sharing pole grounds on the way to your home, and gets hit by lightning instead of the POWER line, which IS grounded on every pole, it would indeed lessen the risk of lightning strike spike from the internet line, stopping at the wifi, instead of in your miner.

Since they travel feet apart on the poles, when lightening strikes I would bet it bounces between one and the other or stays on both.  That kind of argument is like the speed of light argument of a ball being bounced on a flatcar going the speed of light - the ball bouncing would have to go faster than light as it isn't traveling in a straight line.  The whole idea is a farce.  But yes, I'm glad you agree with me.  thanks.
The point was the electrical lines would have grounds at every pole, but a utility line would not. Sorry if I didn't explain it well, I'm running around doing other things...   Wink
BTW, I'm also not an advocate of wireless mining, just looking at options category.
My actual tentative plan is the locally offered Generic 49.99 7Mb/s Dsl buisness connection, connecting the miners via the RJ45 connection on the Ethernet router provided by the service provider, but to get multiple machines on it, I plan on a simple miner, to ethernt hub, to router setup, and still be able to access the system via wifi laptop when I'm there (The service provider confirmed their "free wi-fi router" would be capable of connecting to a hub via RJ45 with multiple machines on it)

It looks as if each and every pole has a cable off to a metal post and these were added when the internet cable was strung at least in the case of the pole closest to my home well back on the property.  Each pole has a heavy support cable top to top.  The original copper ground runs from a cable supporting the top wire down to the ground except for the section removed.  I think it also jumps to the upper support cable as well.  The cable company wire also has its own support cable and a copper ground jumps the line box strung in the air, jumping loosely over from one side of the line box to the other on the support cable and then jumped to and clamped to the ground running down the side of the pole.  Maybe it wasn't the electric utility that cut the wire.  Maybe that copper ground was owned by the landline telephone company.  Perhaps it was cut because they lost so much business to VOIP.  If jumped to the upper support cable, oxidized steel, that runs to a metal post in the ground, that oxidized steel cable provides some grounding, albeit less than offered by copper.  Its loop at the base support would present a little resistance I suppose.  Maybe they were experiencing some kind of ground loop oscillation and broke the copper grounds to reduce noise.

So, what you're doing is an ad hoc hosting.



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August 27, 2013, 01:51:18 PM
 #7271

bitcoin just crossed $130 on mt. gox.....come on KNC!
This might be where stock brokers come out of their holes, sell their BTC and then yell SELL causing a panic driving the price down where then then buy it back up.



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August 27, 2013, 02:02:02 PM
 #7272

Talk of war, always boosts these things.
It's sticking around 130, and a little above. Be nice if it stayed there Smiley
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August 27, 2013, 02:11:38 PM
 #7273


Ok, maybe it's really a case of semantics and bad swedish to english translation, then. When they said they wanted to protect their customers, I got all warm and fuzzy inside thinking they were referring to those $11000 in Paypal transfers my wife nearly divorced me over.

I mistakenly thought the customers they were referring to were the same people who have actually sent them money to pay for a miner or two, not the metaphorical "everyone is our customer, even if they never considered spending a dime with us before they saw that we were the only company actually shipping ASICS". You know, the customer that doesn't exist yet, but will line up in droves in october for november delivered ASICs discounted nearly 40% from the month before.

Maybe I have a totally misplaced sense of entitlement, but I don't want KNC constantly levelling the playing field so that late-to-the-party miners don't have to pay a penalty for being tardy. I want early ordering preference and Pricing for gen 2 or a serious discount on november gen 1 machines so that I can stockpile hashing power during the dec - feb drought.


I like the way you think and I have a lot of the same ideas.  It would be nice to be recognized/acknowledged for making this all possible for KNC.  Like a lifetime "founder" discount or a founder ordering period prior to regular ordering when they launch a new device.  Of course, that doesn't really do anything if they continue to ship as fast as they can.

While it is great that they have the capacity to deliver hundreds or thousands of units per day, it is not good for any of us as it increases the difficulty for earlier investors.  If I paid 2 months before someone else, I should get my machine 2 months before them.  Maybe they could close the gap over time but it is kind of sick to think someone who orders today will get their miner only a week or two after I get mine and I paid 2 months ago.
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August 27, 2013, 02:26:55 PM
 #7274

With orders in the first week of June myself, I can surely see your point, but at the same time, getting an Asic "on-time" will be a first in this business...  and I'm extremely happy with that! Sweetening the pot for re-investors is indeed a really good idea though... It would be excellent for both KNC and returning customers! Like I mentioned earlier, a simple coupon code to redeem at your next purchase would certainly do the trick! Fingers crossed.


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nightengale
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August 27, 2013, 02:30:43 PM
 #7275

A discount on the next gen of miners would be appropriate I think... Hopefully the KnC fanboys don't start piling on now.
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August 27, 2013, 02:32:03 PM
 #7276

This is with a ridiculously high % per month increase in Diff (76%), and no increase in BTC value/dollar,  which I consider worst case scenario.

Any idea what would be a more realistic monthly increase %?

I realize it will start tapering off at some point but the latest increases are making me cringe.

AVERAGE LAST 3 JUMPS
Ave Increase per jump: 28.13%
Ave Increase per month: 99.04%
Ave days for jump: 10.9471142

AVERAGE LAST 7 JUMPS
Ave Increase per jump: 22.81%
Ave Increase per month: 72.74%
Ave days for jump: 11.42691964

AVERAGE LAST 11 JUMPS
Ave Increase per jump: 19.85%
Ave Increase per month: 59.96%
Ave days for jump: 11.71631418




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Bitcoinorama
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August 27, 2013, 02:40:35 PM
 #7277

Of course the recent jumps are high, this is the major transitionary period between GPUs to ASICs (well the ones that have been delivered).

Every current wave of deliveries obviously increases the network hashrate significantrly more than the last. That's obvious.

All this talk of genesis block calculations is nonsense.

It takes a cumulative view of difficulty increases, and that is untenable in the long term, unless the network can be continuously increased in proportion.

So where the current hashrate stands it is easy to double.  Where the network stands in November, it will be less easy to double.

Assuming the increase will remain linear over time, when the hashrate introduced won't remain linear over time invalidates such arguments, most of which is FUD.


P.S. Timmers, I sure hope you aren't really wishing for war.

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August 27, 2013, 03:16:09 PM
 #7278

Of course the recent jumps are high, this is the major transitionary period between GPUs to ASICs (well the ones that have been delivered).

Every current wave of deliveries obviously increases the network hashrate significantrly more than the last. That's obvious.

All this talk of genesis block calculations is nonsense.

It takes a cumulative view of difficulty increases, and that is untenable in the long term, unless the network can be continuously increased in proportion.

So where the current hashrate stands it is easy to double.  Where the network stands in November, it will be less easy to double.

Assuming the increase will remain linear over time, when the hashrate introduced won't remain linear over time invalidates such arguments, most of which is FUD.


P.S. Timmers, I sure hope you aren't really wishing for war.

Riddle:  Complete the chart Smiley



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August 27, 2013, 03:18:52 PM
 #7279

Of course the recent jumps are high, this is the major transitionary period between GPUs to ASICs (well the ones that have been delivered).

Every current wave of deliveries obviously increases the network hashrate significantrly more than the last. That's obvious.

All this talk of genesis block calculations is nonsense.

It takes a cumulative view of difficulty increases, and that is untenable in the long term, unless the network can be continuously increased in proportion.

So where the current hashrate stands it is easy to double.  Where the network stands in November, it will be less easy to double.

Assuming the increase will remain linear over time, when the hashrate introduced won't remain linear over time invalidates such arguments, most of which is FUD.


P.S. Timmers, I sure hope you aren't really wishing for war.

I agree with you conceptually, "that is untenable in the long term".

The problem here is that we don't know what long term is. This is a new experience so we don't know how it may develop.

The comparison to the GPU transition holds until a certain point. ASICs are much more powerful and since they're being developed for a specific task, they are being constantly improved. With GPUs you could only buy more GPUs (linear increase), but if you have a successful ASIC (AVALON B1) then you make a lot of bitcoins you can use to buy a few of the new gen ASICS, and consequentially there is an exponential increase. I agree that this improvement will reach a ceiling at some point, but we don't know when that would be.

On the one hand we have many players developing 2nd 3rd and 4rd generation chips, and even if they are late in the game they will still try to sell their chips at any rate even if losing money. Once the costs of developing a new chip are accounted for, producing more chips and miners is significantly cheaper, which means they can flood the market with discounted prices.

On the other hand the viable mining operation for let's say, a Jupiter, is mostly 6 months, and in best case scenario, 12 months. That is not "long term" in this scenario, considering that we will see a few new miners before the year ends.

Best,

 

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August 27, 2013, 03:28:33 PM
 #7280

Bitfury beats KNC to the "first shipment" finish line:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=250249.msg3018498#msg3018498

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