[4+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); Overt AsicBoost; World First Mining Pool

[organofcorti]

Just got a statement on luck in the mail (newsletter).  Online version: https://mining.bitcoin.cz/mailing/newsletter/ee6e9ec82dac/

Too little too late imo, been at Antpool since 19th June, tired of the up and downs, this last down was the nail in the coffin for me at Slush.
Especially after seeing "Please note our core systems have not been touched in months."
This absolutely does not fill me with energy and confidence in regards to Slush.

Once again slow to move and upgrade,  ultimately it just looks like the Slush management are slow to move everytime and that hurts miners.

I'm probably mis-reading you, but are you saying that Slush's management have been slow to correct the luck - you know that's not going to happen, yes? You know that the reason you're rewards are closer to normal at a big pool is that you're at a big pool and hence less variance?

Finally, if you do move to a large pool because of variance then you're doing exactly what other miners did when they moved to GHash.IO because of variance on smaller pools - they increased network centralisation significantly.

[tarzan2]

Correct me if I'm wrong.. The way i see it slushies have had to eat a loss lately, but since over a large enough sample luck returns to 100%. Therefore we should, with any luck, pun pretended) be making a comeback with crazy bitcoin gains whereas we are made whole.. Or is this something to occur very slowly and unpredictably unsteadily as we forget this month of poverty with like 101% luck for a year?

My knowledge of statistics is weak. I consider it more witchcraft than math.. I was trying tarrot cards on the blockchain but my aura is off due to bad luck.. It ain't math don't lie. Math is sensible

[organofcorti]

Correct me if I'm wrong.. The way i see it slushies have had to eat a loss lately, but since over a large enough sample luck returns to 100%. Therefore we should, with any luck, pun pretended) be making a comeback with crazy bitcoin gains whereas we are made whole.. Or is this something to occur very slowly and unpredictably unsteadily as we forget this month of poverty with like 101% luck for a year?

My knowledge of statistics is weak. I consider it more witchcraft than math.. I was trying tarrot cards on the blockchain but my aura is off due to bad luck.. It ain't math don't lie. Math is sensible

I examined some goat entrails and also consulted the magic knucklebones. The probability of the luck of the last 100 rounds at Slush's pool or worse is 0.9631468, which means we'd expect to see the same luck or worse once every 27 re-runs of the last 100 rounds. Not very unlikely.

It's worthwhile keeping track of pool luck - it's how I showed that luck at GHash.IO was impossibly low, after which they found they'd been a victim of some sort of exploit.

Right now at Slush's pool I'm not seeing anything I haven't seen many times before. I don't see any reason to not mine here unless you can't handle variance, in which case mine at a PPS pool or a large pool and try to not think about how you're increasing bitcoin mining centralisation.

[tarzan2]

Hmm and a hundred rounds at the slushden is what like ~20 days right? So that's like once a year or so .. I can live with it..

I'm curious how you did that magic tho.. Where did 0.963.. come from? Does it vary significantly by pool? Which pool has the best stats for this? Are you a wizard and did you go to Hogwarts?
Thanks

[organofcorti]

Hmm and a hundred rounds at the slushden is what like ~20 days right? So that's like once a year or so .. I can live with it..

I'm curious how you did that magic tho.. Where did 0.963.. come from? Does it vary significantly by pool? Which pool has the best stats for this? Are you a wizard and did you go to Hogwarts?
Thanks

Some of your answers are here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77000.msg3614424#msg3614424
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77000.msg10638159#msg10638159

Last time there was a luck freak out at Slush's pool:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1976.msg5071405#msg5071405
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1976.msg5151198#msg5151198

There are lots more "luck bad, sky falling" posts I've addressed in most many of the pool threads.

[mooseCavalry]

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?

[eleuthria]

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?

Recipe:
1/3 tbsp. of black magic
2 lumps of superstition
a pinch of voodoo
3 tsp. of random
and a gallon of confirmation bias.

Mix vigorously.


For an extra kick, pour in gambler's fallacy until mixture thickens.

[organofcorti]

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?

Recipe:
1/3 tbsp. of black magic
2 lumps of superstition
a pinch of voodoo
3 tsp. of random
and a gallon of confirmation bias.

Mix vigorously.


For an extra kick, pour in gambler's fallacy until mixture thickens.

And a clear illustration of "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic".

[jonnybravo0311]

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?

Recipe:
1/3 tbsp. of black magic
2 lumps of superstition
a pinch of voodoo
3 tsp. of random
and a gallon of confirmation bias.

Mix vigorously.


For an extra kick, pour in gambler's fallacy until mixture thickens.

And a clear illustration of "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic".

As soon as people simply accept that technology IS magic, we'll all happily move along with our lives.  Hey, how does that mobile phone work?  Magic!  Oh, how does that 4K tv work?  Why, magic of course!

See how much easier that is?

[kano]

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?

Recipe:
1/3 tbsp. of black magic
2 lumps of superstition
a pinch of voodoo
3 tsp. of random
and a gallon of confirmation bias.

Mix vigorously.


For an extra kick, pour in gambler's fallacy until mixture thickens.

And a clear illustration of "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic".

... to those who don't understand it ...
Though really these days there is no excuse for not understanding ...

[tarzan2]

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?

Recipe:
1/3 tbsp. of black magic
2 lumps of superstition
a pinch of voodoo
3 tsp. of random
and a gallon of confirmation bias.

Mix vigorously.


For an extra kick, pour in gambler's fallacy until mixture thickens.

And a clear illustration of "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic".

... to those who don't understand it ...
Though really these days there is no excuse for not understanding ...

statistics can eat my shorts.. im much happier with topological metric spaces and the construction algebraic structures.. i dont care about dice rolls, seems trivial

[TheRealSteve]

Sadly - although I fully understand it from a pragmatic viewpoint - a lot of people do care about dice rolls.  Sadly, because people are not chasing the ephemeral 'luck' - if that was all they were doing, they'd naively pick Eligius (L-), EclipseMC (BFL), Ghash.io or kano.is - but rather lower variability.  That's a positive feedback loop that makes bigger pools even bigger.

[DrHaribo]

Quite a lot of miners do not know what variance is. They pick the biggest pool because it is the biggest. If it is the most popular then it must be the best. People pick their bank (and basically anything) the same way.

[man114]

Quite a lot of miners do not know what variance is. They pick the biggest pool because it is the biggest. If it is the most popular then it must be the best. People pick their bank (and basically anything) the same way.

Pretty much, but your share of the payout is less with the bigger pools.

[kano]

Quite a lot of miners do not know what variance is. They pick the biggest pool because it is the biggest. If it is the most popular then it must be the best. People pick their bank (and basically anything) the same way.

If you have a local McDonalds, then for most people they would find that more people eat at McDonalds than at their local favourite restaurant.

McDonalds food must be better?

[chiguireitor]

Quite a lot of miners do not know what variance is. They pick the biggest pool because it is the biggest. If it is the most popular then it must be the best. People pick their bank (and basically anything) the same way.

If you have a local McDonalds, then for most people they would find that more people eat at McDonalds than at their local favourite restaurant.

McDonalds food must be better?

Social pressure is a bitch... if not, ask the last kid on this clip.

[DrHaribo]

If you have a local McDonalds, then for most people they would find that more people eat at McDonalds than at their local favourite restaurant.

McDonalds food must be better?

Sure, also with McDonalds there is that effect from many people eating there. But they also have a low value reputation pulling in the other direction. Some feel ashamed and don't want anyone to see them eating there. Others feel the need to make up excuses to eat there, thinking McDonalds becomes more socially acceptable if you have a good excuse.

It's kind of like mining in the biggest pool. A lot of people are doing it so you assume it's the best (?), but on the other hand you know the pool is getting too big and reducing the security of bitcoin. So then you make up an excuse, maybe something like "I don't understand this bitcoin stuff, I just run this machine and money comes out." Or maybe you make up a new user name so noone knows it's you, and you tell all your friends that you mine at a different pool.

[edonkey]

Is Slush's pool safe from the problems that affected F2Pool and Antpool last night (where they were not validating incoming blocks correctly and forked onto an incorrect chain for 6 blocks)?

I assume that slush is more competent than these other pool operators, and that his team keeps on top of required updates.

But currently slush is not listed on the "safe" pool list, so I have to ask.

[pekatete]

Is Slush's pool safe from the problems that affected P2Pool and Antpool last night (where they were not validating incoming blocks correctly and forked onto an incorrect chain for 6 blocks)?

I assume that slush is more competent than these other pool operators, and that his team keeps on top of required updates.

But currently slush is not listed on the "safe" pool list, so I have to ask.

Slush is as safe as houses! They forked to v3 on and in time ..... you can confirm that by checking any of the blocks the pool has won lately (you do not need to be logged in to do that).

[DrHaribo]

Is Slush's pool safe from the problems that affected P2Pool and Antpool last night

That was F2Pool, not P2Pool.