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Author Topic: [4+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); Overt AsicBoost; World First Mining Pool  (Read 4342084 times)
man114
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July 01, 2015, 05:33:48 AM
 #20981

I stayed put through the whole low luck period with a few miners just to see what happened. The rewards almost doubled so the end result was roughly the same. The only thing I was unable to do was time the payout as precisely.
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tarzan2
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July 01, 2015, 06:08:59 AM
 #20982

I stayed put through the whole low luck period with a few miners just to see what happened. The rewards almost doubled so the end result was roughly the same. The only thing I was unable to do was time the payout as precisely.

Rewards were doubled but blocks were 0.. I stayed with all my mining force didn't budge at all and theres like 3-4 days with no pay at all and maybe 10 days with 1 block but even at double that's not by any means good pay

organofcorti
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July 01, 2015, 07:37:49 AM
 #20983

Just got a statement on luck in the mail (newsletter).  Online version: https://mining.bitcoin.cz/mailing/newsletter/ee6e9ec82dac/

Too little too late imo, been at Antpool since 19th June, tired of the up and downs, this last down was the nail in the coffin for me at Slush.
Especially after seeing "Please note our core systems have not been touched in months."
This absolutely does not fill me with energy and confidence in regards to Slush.

Once again slow to move and upgrade,  ultimately it just looks like the Slush management are slow to move everytime and that hurts miners.

I'm probably mis-reading you, but are you saying that Slush's management have been slow to correct the luck - you know that's not going to happen, yes? You know that the reason you're rewards are closer to normal at a big pool is that you're at a big pool and hence less variance?

Finally, if you do move to a large pool because of variance then you're doing exactly what other miners did when they moved to GHash.IO because of variance on smaller pools - they increased network centralisation significantly.


Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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tarzan2
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July 01, 2015, 07:47:27 AM
 #20984

Correct me if I'm wrong.. The way i see it slushies have had to eat a loss lately, but since over a large enough sample luck returns to 100%. Therefore we should, with any luck, pun pretended) be making a comeback with crazy bitcoin gains whereas we are made whole.. Or is this something to occur very slowly and unpredictably unsteadily as we forget this month of poverty with like 101% luck for a year?

My knowledge of statistics is weak. I consider it more witchcraft than math.. I was trying tarrot cards on the blockchain but my aura is off due to bad luck.. It ain't math don't lie. Math is sensible

organofcorti
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July 01, 2015, 07:58:47 AM
 #20985

Correct me if I'm wrong.. The way i see it slushies have had to eat a loss lately, but since over a large enough sample luck returns to 100%. Therefore we should, with any luck, pun pretended) be making a comeback with crazy bitcoin gains whereas we are made whole.. Or is this something to occur very slowly and unpredictably unsteadily as we forget this month of poverty with like 101% luck for a year?

My knowledge of statistics is weak. I consider it more witchcraft than math.. I was trying tarrot cards on the blockchain but my aura is off due to bad luck.. It ain't math don't lie. Math is sensible

I examined some goat entrails and also consulted the magic knucklebones. The probability of the luck of the last 100 rounds at Slush's pool or worse is 0.9631468, which means we'd expect to see the same luck or worse once every 27 re-runs of the last 100 rounds. Not very unlikely.

It's worthwhile keeping track of pool luck - it's how I showed that luck at GHash.IO was impossibly low, after which they found they'd been a victim of some sort of exploit.

Right now at Slush's pool I'm not seeing anything I haven't seen many times before. I don't see any reason to not mine here unless you can't handle variance, in which case mine at a PPS pool or a large pool and try to not think about how you're increasing bitcoin mining centralisation.


Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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tarzan2
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July 01, 2015, 08:03:58 AM
 #20986

Hmm and a hundred rounds at the slushden is what like ~20 days right? So that's like once a year or so .. I can live with it..

I'm curious how you did that magic tho.. Where did 0.963.. come from? Does it vary significantly by pool? Which pool has the best stats for this? Are you a wizard and did you go to Hogwarts?
Thanks

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July 01, 2015, 08:13:51 AM
 #20987

Hmm and a hundred rounds at the slushden is what like ~20 days right? So that's like once a year or so .. I can live with it..

I'm curious how you did that magic tho.. Where did 0.963.. come from? Does it vary significantly by pool? Which pool has the best stats for this? Are you a wizard and did you go to Hogwarts?
Thanks

Some of your answers are here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77000.msg3614424#msg3614424
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77000.msg10638159#msg10638159

Last time there was a luck freak out at Slush's pool:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1976.msg5071405#msg5071405
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1976.msg5151198#msg5151198

There are lots more "luck bad, sky falling" posts I've addressed in most many of the pool threads.

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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mooseCavalry
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July 01, 2015, 03:06:11 PM
 #20988

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?
eleuthria
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July 01, 2015, 03:22:03 PM
 #20989

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?

Recipe:
1/3 tbsp. of black magic
2 lumps of superstition
a pinch of voodoo
3 tsp. of random
and a gallon of confirmation bias.

Mix vigorously.


For an extra kick, pour in gambler's fallacy until mixture thickens.

RIP BTC Guild, April 2011 - June 2015
organofcorti
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July 01, 2015, 03:37:51 PM
 #20990

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?

Recipe:
1/3 tbsp. of black magic
2 lumps of superstition
a pinch of voodoo
3 tsp. of random
and a gallon of confirmation bias.

Mix vigorously.


For an extra kick, pour in gambler's fallacy until mixture thickens.

And a clear illustration of "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic".

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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jonnybravo0311
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July 02, 2015, 12:34:01 AM
 #20991

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?

Recipe:
1/3 tbsp. of black magic
2 lumps of superstition
a pinch of voodoo
3 tsp. of random
and a gallon of confirmation bias.

Mix vigorously.


For an extra kick, pour in gambler's fallacy until mixture thickens.

And a clear illustration of "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic".

As soon as people simply accept that technology IS magic, we'll all happily move along with our lives.  Hey, how does that mobile phone work?  Magic!  Oh, how does that 4K tv work?  Why, magic of course!

See how much easier that is? Tongue

Jonny's Pool - Mine with us and help us grow!  Support a pool that supports Bitcoin, not a hardware manufacturer's pockets!  No SPV cheats.  No empty blocks.
kano
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July 02, 2015, 08:48:23 AM
 #20992

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?

Recipe:
1/3 tbsp. of black magic
2 lumps of superstition
a pinch of voodoo
3 tsp. of random
and a gallon of confirmation bias.

Mix vigorously.


For an extra kick, pour in gambler's fallacy until mixture thickens.

And a clear illustration of "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic".

... to those who don't understand it ...
Though really these days there is no excuse for not understanding ...

Pool: https://kano.is Here on Bitcointalk: Forum BTC: 1KanoPb8cKYqNrswjaA8cRDk4FAS9eDMLU
FreeNode IRC: irc.freenode.net channel #kano.is Majority developer of the ckpool code
Help keep Bitcoin secure by mining on pools with full block verification on all blocks - and NO empty blocks!
tarzan2
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July 02, 2015, 09:57:50 AM
 #20993

Better luck (lately) seems to correlate with slush's switch to version 3 blocks. Is there a technical explanation for this?

Recipe:
1/3 tbsp. of black magic
2 lumps of superstition
a pinch of voodoo
3 tsp. of random
and a gallon of confirmation bias.

Mix vigorously.


For an extra kick, pour in gambler's fallacy until mixture thickens.

And a clear illustration of "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic".

... to those who don't understand it ...
Though really these days there is no excuse for not understanding ...

statistics can eat my shorts.. im much happier with topological metric spaces and the construction algebraic structures.. i dont care about dice rolls, seems trivial

TheRealSteve
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July 02, 2015, 10:34:05 AM
 #20994

Sadly - although I fully understand it from a pragmatic viewpoint - a lot of people do care about dice rolls.  Sadly, because people are not chasing the ephemeral 'luck' - if that was all they were doing, they'd naively pick Eligius (L-), EclipseMC (BFL), Ghash.io or kano.is - but rather lower variability.  That's a positive feedback loop that makes bigger pools even bigger.

DrHaribo
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July 02, 2015, 10:58:35 AM
 #20995

Quite a lot of miners do not know what variance is. They pick the biggest pool because it is the biggest. If it is the most popular then it must be the best. People pick their bank (and basically anything) the same way.

▶▶▶ Bitminter.com - Your trusted mining pool since 2011.
man114
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July 02, 2015, 11:51:56 PM
 #20996

Quite a lot of miners do not know what variance is. They pick the biggest pool because it is the biggest. If it is the most popular then it must be the best. People pick their bank (and basically anything) the same way.


Pretty much, but your share of the payout is less with the bigger pools.
kano
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July 03, 2015, 12:36:23 AM
 #20997

Quite a lot of miners do not know what variance is. They pick the biggest pool because it is the biggest. If it is the most popular then it must be the best. People pick their bank (and basically anything) the same way.

If you have a local McDonalds, then for most people they would find that more people eat at McDonalds than at their local favourite restaurant.

McDonalds food must be better? Cheesy

Pool: https://kano.is Here on Bitcointalk: Forum BTC: 1KanoPb8cKYqNrswjaA8cRDk4FAS9eDMLU
FreeNode IRC: irc.freenode.net channel #kano.is Majority developer of the ckpool code
Help keep Bitcoin secure by mining on pools with full block verification on all blocks - and NO empty blocks!
chiguireitor
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July 03, 2015, 03:06:24 AM
 #20998

Quite a lot of miners do not know what variance is. They pick the biggest pool because it is the biggest. If it is the most popular then it must be the best. People pick their bank (and basically anything) the same way.

If you have a local McDonalds, then for most people they would find that more people eat at McDonalds than at their local favourite restaurant.

McDonalds food must be better? Cheesy

Social pressure is a bitch... if not, ask the last kid on this clip.

DrHaribo
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July 03, 2015, 10:17:20 AM
 #20999

If you have a local McDonalds, then for most people they would find that more people eat at McDonalds than at their local favourite restaurant.

McDonalds food must be better? Cheesy

Sure, also with McDonalds there is that effect from many people eating there. But they also have a low value reputation pulling in the other direction. Some feel ashamed and don't want anyone to see them eating there. Others feel the need to make up excuses to eat there, thinking McDonalds becomes more socially acceptable if you have a good excuse.

It's kind of like mining in the biggest pool. A lot of people are doing it so you assume it's the best (?), but on the other hand you know the pool is getting too big and reducing the security of bitcoin. So then you make up an excuse, maybe something like "I don't understand this bitcoin stuff, I just run this machine and money comes out." Or maybe you make up a new user name so noone knows it's you, and you tell all your friends that you mine at a different pool.

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edonkey
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July 04, 2015, 08:23:39 PM
 #21000

Is Slush's pool safe from the problems that affected F2Pool and Antpool last night (where they were not validating incoming blocks correctly and forked onto an incorrect chain for 6 blocks)?

I assume that slush is more competent than these other pool operators, and that his team keeps on top of required updates.

But currently slush is not listed on the "safe" pool list, so I have to ask.

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