[4+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); Overt AsicBoost; World First Mining Pool

[Benjy_Bronk]

What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.

I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?

An old post from Satoshi about similar concerns https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61.msg433#msg433 read the last words in that thread i.e. "Bitcoin gold rush paranoia I guess"

When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution

When you toss a coin and 99 times it was heads, what is the chance for the 100 it's heads or tails?

EDIT: What i want to say is that even if currently GHash.IO and BTC Guild are together 51% of the network there is chance that they won't find a block in the next 24h and it will be perfectly normal (though very very very) BAD LUCK

Actually its the same every time you flip it. .   It's 50/50 every single time (unless it somehow by some small chance it lands on the edge of the coin, which is some infintesimal chance). .   Thats why it makes no sense to bet black when its hit red 20 previous times on a roulette wheel ..   However, the odds of it hitting heads 99 times in a row and then hitting tails is the ridiculous odds. ..

Wesley Snipes told me to always bet on black!

BENJY!!!!!

Hey nowwwwwww

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[binja9]

It's looking better now

I will say well done Slush for all your efforts in keeping this pool going.

For all the conspiracy theorists and serial complainers out below, thank you for your ever more imaginative theories and snipes but seriously stop clock watching, put a smile on ya faces and accept that sometimes shit just happens...

a 30 minute round, and yet no one is uncomplaining

Go Slush!

[philipk999]

It's looking better now

I will say well done Slush for all your efforts in keeping this pool going.

For all the conspiracy theorists and serial complainers out below, thank you for your ever more imaginative theories and snipes but seriously stop clock watching, put a smile on ya faces and accept that sometimes shit just happens...

a 30 minute round, and yet no one is uncomplaining

Go Slush!

Quite so!
Just as a newbie matter of interest, how is it that it takes 100 confirmations to get into ones account, but from the instigation of the transfer to your wallet, it only takes minutes - surely, then payout has to go through the blockchain as well, but perhaps ones wallet only requires a lesser number of confirmations..............?

[KNK]

Actually its the same every time you flip it. .   It's 50/50 every single time (unless it somehow by some small chance it lands on the edge of the coin, which is some infintesimal chance). .   Thats why it makes no sense to bet black when its hit red 20 previous times on a roulette wheel ..   However, the odds of it hitting heads 99 times in a row and then hitting tails is the ridiculous odds. ..

Exactly and for bitcoin it means, that with each share there is 1/difficulty chance to find a block, while it's not guaranteed that you'll find one after difficulty shares, but on average you should

Statistically there should be 50 heads/reds and 50 tails/blacks form 100 on average, but it is possible to have 100 tails/blacks in a row just like any other number
 again statistically - once in every 100 throws there will be exactly 42 heads
 and again - half of the 100 throws series will have more than 50 heads ...
    and it's possible that all those 'over 50 heads' series are from 100 heads

[nottm28]

Just as a newbie matter of interest, how is it that it takes 100 confirmations to get into ones account, but from the instigation of the transfer to your wallet, it only takes minutes - surely, then payout has to go through the blockchain as well, but perhaps ones wallet only requires a lesser number of confirmations..............?

100 confirmations is basically to ensure the integrity of the blockchain - see here for more

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Confirmation

[KNK]

Just as a newbie matter of interest, how is it that it takes 100 confirmations to get into ones account, but from the instigation of the transfer to your wallet, it only takes minutes - surely, then payout has to go through the blockchain as well, but perhaps ones wallet only requires a lesser number of confirmations..............?

As an experiment for you ...
Once you receive your payment try to spend it before there are 120 confirmations ...

The bitcoin protocol requires 120 confirmations in order to accept a transaction as valid, which comes from the fact that there should be 120 blocks based on this one (which includes the transaction) to accept it as valid and part of the longest chain.

Yes, there are 120 not 100 confirmations required, so in fact the pool pays your reward before it is truly accepted as valid and you can't spend the money you got for a much longer period

[KNK]

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Confirmation

In my post i was referring to the last sentence there 'The classic bitcoin client won't show generated coins as confirmed until the 120th block.', because that means at least (big) part of the network will not accept your transaction before those 120 blocks

[PostMixer]

This current "Luck"....is outright RETARDED.  Huge % drops in 7 & 30 DMA.  

It's funny because a few pages back, well maybe a few weeks ago, someone was giving me a bunch of shit because I was saying that complaining about "luck" is on topic. They were trying to say comments about luck were meaningless. I dunno, I've long speculated that our luck drops heavily when there is a technical problem backstage that we are unaware of, part of this has to do with the consecutive long blocks and when they clear up we usually have a run of incredibly good luck. I've also noticed, for whatever reason, blocks seem longer on the weekends. These types of pattern always seem to me like there's more to it than pure forces of luck. I do wonder right now if there's some issue with our pool that we just don't know about...

Luck :success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.
 
And I still say complaining about "luck" is meaningless. I never said complaining about technical issues was! And if your own analysis of patterns of slow weekends, ect… leads you to believe that there are background issues then I respect that. I think my broader point was "luck" as defined above, isn't something you really can complain about, because it's by chance rather than by action. Either way I see you are still here so you must have "Faith" and that's a WHOLE different thing 

[cyberm]

looks like a couple of folks more left the building... below 800 now

[Mudbankkeith]

looks like a couple of folks more left the building... below 800 now

There are some heavy storms around at the moment, lots of power outages in south east Europe, maybe that could account for some of the missing users.

[shazo]

I wonder if the luck has to do with the price drop or if the price drop has to do with how bad the luck was. Also I wonder if the miners will drop in price now.

[Mudbankkeith]

I wonder if the luck has to do with the price drop or if the price drop has to do with how bad the luck was. Also I wonder if the miners will drop in price now.

Miners priced in BTc are already falling

[shazo]

I wonder if the luck has to do with the price drop or if the price drop has to do with how bad the luck was. Also I wonder if the miners will drop in price now.

Miners priced in BTc are already falling

Guess now would be the time to buy some coins and buy an s1. Only miner that isn't going for thousands of dollars are the ants also they are to only ones I have been able to find for bitcoins.

[Ron_D]

I wonder if the luck has to do with the price drop or if the price drop has to do with how bad the luck was. Also I wonder if the miners will drop in price now.

Price drop of BTC is because of 2 reasons.

1. Russia deemed BTC illegal
http://rt.com/business/bitcoin-russia-use-ban-942/

2. MtGox went down.
https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20140207.html

Both are bad...
Stop looking at your HashRate, and Pool Luck...
Start watching the news...!
Heat is on....

[shazo]

I wonder if the luck has to do with the price drop or if the price drop has to do with how bad the luck was. Also I wonder if the miners will drop in price now.

Price drop of BTC is because of 2 reasons.

1. Russia deemed BTC illegal
http://rt.com/business/bitcoin-russia-use-ban-942/

2. MtGox went down.
https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20140207.html

Both are bad...
Stop looking at your HashRate, and Pool Luck...
Start watching the news...!
Heat is on....

I saw online about it dropping just before I made the post.  The article that I read said MtGox went down and something about servers over seas.  I'm thinking that had more to do with the MtGox going down.  Thought maybe because of that going down and price dropping might be in part as to why the issues were on Slush.  I didn't know that about Russia.  I didn't even Know prices went down till I saw that article and nothing about Russia was said.  Glad to see things are getting back to normal on Slush.  Also all the news in the St. Louis area is saying about Bitcoin is Apple took an app off the market and some places in the area are now taking them.

[J_Dubbs]

Special cause events like regulation will pass in time, long-term trend is upwards. Just like China regulation and pricing this will pass over. Either way, too much upside to not be involved, watch the news in context of knowing that negative reporting sells more advertisements than positive.

[anthem]

wow - has anyone ever seen a dead even 25 btc block value before ?  I have never seen a dead even block value of 25 ever. .   I always thought it was 25 + some sort of residual value and that 25 even was not possible. . guess I was wrong.

[Trongersoll]

wow - has anyone ever seen a dead even 25 btc block value before ?  I have never seen a dead even block value of 25 ever. .   I always thought it was 25 + some sort of residual value and that 25 even was not possible. . guess I was wrong.

It is 25 BTC + transaction fees. It is possible to make a block with no transactions in it or only free transactions.

[chopsticks]

wow - has anyone ever seen a dead even 25 btc block value before ?  I have never seen a dead even block value of 25 ever. .   I always thought it was 25 + some sort of residual value and that 25 even was not possible. . guess I was wrong.

Yeah the 25.00000000 result - block 284724
http://blockchain.info/block/0000000000000000c20dd89c1a4b73287bad70792b186d044f128761eca1902a?site=slush

is noteworthy

[BuhTuglia]

I'M UNCOMPLAINING! I'M UNCOMPLAINING! Thank you, benevolent bitcoin god! Thank you!