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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939288 times)
oda.krell
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November 16, 2014, 08:38:27 PM
 #2221

Since we seem to be playing 'Predict the mid term outlook', here's my contest entry... roadmap of the next month(s), roughly along the daily MA20/50/200.

Don't get too hung up about the exact extension of the SMAs I drew in, they're naturally imprecise, and just serve to illustrate the big picture of support and resistances.

Similar for the time frame. I put the "SMA200 decision point" probably too far into the future. More likely actually we'll get there towards the end of 2014/January 2015 than March 2015 where it's in my graph - I just needed the space to draw in the trend outlines I see as possible, maybe likely.



What's the take home message I'm trying to describe here?

1) Mainly based on volume during the $275 capitulation, and volume/price action since then, I expect to see a test of SMA200 before making a new low. In other words: (a) we're going up significantly before (b) we're going down significantly. My odds for (a) vs (b): ~ 2:1.

2) There are two ways to get to SMA200: (a) the slow, painful route (full of retests of the slower MA50), and (b) the faster one, where we're (mainly) staying above MA20. My odds for (a) vs. (b): ~ 3:2.

3) Once we get to SMA200, two ways to decide if we break into a "real" rally: (a) with a substantial price drop, likely aiming for MA50 again, or (b) without it. Odds (a) vs. (b): (depends on the way we get there, but under my current assumptions): ~ 2:1

4) We'll break and stay above MA200 (a), or we're falling back below (b) (possibly towards a new, sub 275 low). Odds: No idea right now. Heavily depends on volume/price action on the way there, and once we get there.

tl;dr I expect MA200 test, mid term, but it'll be a rocky road to get there.

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WaffleMaster
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November 16, 2014, 09:25:05 PM
 #2222

Anyone else noticing the new upward channel?  Grin
ssmc2
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November 16, 2014, 09:27:26 PM
 #2223

Anyone else noticing the new upward channel?  Grin

We had an upward channel in April/May as well...until we didn't.  Wink
BTCtrader71
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November 16, 2014, 09:28:46 PM
 #2224

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said ....

Is that DanV?

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oda.krell
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November 16, 2014, 10:30:48 PM
 #2225

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said ....

Is that DanV?

Haha, no... master = masterluc = lucif = 80% of the time it pays off to pay attention to the guy Cheesy

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BTCtrader71
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November 16, 2014, 10:52:07 PM
 #2226

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said ....

Is that DanV?

Haha, no... master = masterluc = lucif = 80% of the time it pays off to pay attention to the guy Cheesy

ahhh I forgot he is the creator of this thread Roll Eyes

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Tzupy
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November 17, 2014, 12:28:39 AM
 #2227

Since oda.krell posted a bullish scenario that doesn't make sense to me, I decided to post how a bullish scenario should look IMO.


Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
Wary
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November 17, 2014, 02:27:37 AM
 #2228

Since oda.krell posted a bullish scenario that doesn't make sense to me, I decided to post how a bullish scenario should look IMO.


If it's bullish, I wonder what you would call bearish   Smiley

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
hdbuck
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November 17, 2014, 07:21:54 AM
Last edit: November 17, 2014, 07:32:43 AM by hdbuck
 #2229

Since oda.krell posted a bullish scenario that doesn't make sense to me, I decided to post how a bullish scenario should look IMO.


If it's bullish, I wonder what you would call bearish   Smiley

something like this i'd guess:

When the current support at about 320$ will be broken, it will become major resistance.
After THE bottom, the first sub-wave of wave 1 will test it and maybe briefly break it for a push to 350$ (mid-term bull trap).
Since the current market is more volatile than the June - July 2013 one, I expect the rally from THE bottom to 350$
to be % more than the 59% of 7th - 12th July 2013, I'd guess about 80% - 90%. This would put THE bottom around 190$.
Tzupy
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November 17, 2014, 06:11:26 PM
 #2230

Daily PSAR flipped, like in early June. But the correction may have already happened 50%, we'll see:


Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
var53
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November 17, 2014, 06:51:57 PM
 #2231

It's been announced that 50 thousand silk road bitcoins are due to be auctioned in early December. The announcement coincided with a crash down to 375, but it seems to be bouncing back a bit now. What's this going to do to the price in the run up to the auction and afterwards?

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/dpr-bitcoins/
notme
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November 17, 2014, 07:15:32 PM
 #2232

It's been announced that 50 thousand silk road bitcoins are due to be auctioned in early December. The announcement coincided with a crash down to 375, but it seems to be bouncing back a bit now. What's this going to do to the price in the run up to the auction and afterwards?

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/dpr-bitcoins/

Do you really have to post this in every thread?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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var53
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November 17, 2014, 07:20:03 PM
 #2233

It's been announced that 50 thousand silk road bitcoins are due to be auctioned in early December. The announcement coincided with a crash down to 375, but it seems to be bouncing back a bit now. What's this going to do to the price in the run up to the auction and afterwards?

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/dpr-bitcoins/

Do you really have to post this in every thread?

I posted it in two technical analysis threads to get opinions because Chessnut thinks the bottom is probably in and the master thinks it's probably not in. Perhaps they will both have different opinions about the second silk road bitcoins auction and I am interested to hear them.
notme
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November 17, 2014, 07:21:21 PM
 #2234

It's been announced that 50 thousand silk road bitcoins are due to be auctioned in early December. The announcement coincided with a crash down to 375, but it seems to be bouncing back a bit now. What's this going to do to the price in the run up to the auction and afterwards?

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/dpr-bitcoins/

Do you really have to post this in every thread?

I posted it in two technical analysis threads to get opinions because Chessnut thinks the bottom is in and the master thinks it's not in. Perhaps they will both have different opinions about the second silk road bitcoins auction and I am interested to hear them.

And it is off topic in both since they are technical analysis threads.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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sumantso
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November 18, 2014, 05:02:56 PM
 #2235

The master hasn't spoken about a review, or is he still sleeping till it gets to $500? It looks to me as though prices are going go down now.

masterluc
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November 19, 2014, 03:32:56 PM
 #2236

I am still unsure, monitoring compiling picture.

The bounce off 275 more and more reminds me flat correction (abc) rather impulse. Just because length of (b) is 100% length of (a). In impulse (b) is (3) and should be larger.

Moreover, the picture now shows the bear counter-trend flag. Also still no success with breaking -1 long term deviation.



Overlap (c) and (3) may give optimism. Technically this giant bull wedge is complete in 5 waves (w-x-y-xx-z) so it may break up very impressively in any time.

But more downside is also possible. So I am unsure. So breaking up 462 would be very bullish. On other side, one more plunge to sub-200 is not excluded.


lunarboy
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November 20, 2014, 07:24:57 PM
 #2237

sub 300 you mean ? 1xx is a long way from here.
Globb0
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November 20, 2014, 08:08:54 PM
 #2238

Nice thread thanks
lebing
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November 20, 2014, 10:52:52 PM
 #2239

sub 300 you mean ? 1xx is a long way from here.

No, he means sub 200. And yes it is a long long way from here. Institutional investors will be buying hand over fist below 275.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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hdbuck
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November 20, 2014, 11:15:03 PM
 #2240

sub 300 you mean ? 1xx is a long way from here.

No, he means sub 200. And yes it is a long long way from here. Institutional investors will be buying hand over fist below 275.

maybe a glitch below 275 but i really have a hard time imagine it sub 200.
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