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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916479 times)
belmonty
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November 13, 2014, 03:18:56 PM
 #2221

If "historical 3" is hypothetically in the future then the term is counter intuitive. Historical typically refers to the past, not the future.

The "historical count" in EW is the highest level count that encompasses all of the history.

Does "all of the history" include the future?

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notme
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November 13, 2014, 03:26:56 PM
 #2222

If "historical 3" is hypothetically in the future then the term is counter intuitive. Historical typically refers to the past, not the future.

The "historical count" in EW is the highest level count that encompasses all of the history.

Does "all of the history" include the future?

No, but the count predicts what the future holds.  I don't know if it is right or not.  No one does.  But if we did just complete "historical 2" than "historical 3" next.

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While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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Igluenza
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November 13, 2014, 08:57:53 PM
 #2223

Interesting to go back to the beginning of this thread (even on his previous one https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.0), see the charts masterluc posted & read his thoughts on the wave count as it played out last year. This one especially, lol:
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November 13, 2014, 08:59:35 PM
 #2224

Interesting to go back to the beginning of this thread (even on his previous one https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.0), see the charts masterluc posted & read his thoughts on the wave count as it played out last year. This one especially, lol:


Right? It works until it doesn't anymore.

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November 13, 2014, 09:04:38 PM
 #2225

If "historical 3" is hypothetically in the future then the term is counter intuitive. Historical typically refers to the past, not the future.

The "historical count" in EW is the highest level count that encompasses all of the history.

Does "all of the history" include the future?

No, but the count predicts what the future holds.  I don't know if it is right or not.  No one does.  But if we did just complete "historical 2" than "historical 3" next.



question is, have we enter historical 3.
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November 13, 2014, 09:14:03 PM
 #2226

If "historical 3" is hypothetically in the future then the term is counter intuitive. Historical typically refers to the past, not the future.

The "historical count" in EW is the highest level count that encompasses all of the history.

Does "all of the history" include the future?

No, but the count predicts what the future holds.  I don't know if it is right or not.  No one does.  But if we did just complete "historical 2" than "historical 3" next.



question is, have we enter historical 3.

Historical Elliott-Wave 1 was 1163; Wave 2 completed below 300 and Wave 3 will end above 1163.
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November 13, 2014, 09:16:50 PM
 #2227

If "historical 3" is hypothetically in the future then the term is counter intuitive. Historical typically refers to the past, not the future.

The "historical count" in EW is the highest level count that encompasses all of the history.

Does "all of the history" include the future?

No, but the count predicts what the future holds.  I don't know if it is right or not.  No one does.  But if we did just complete "historical 2" than "historical 3" next.



question is, have we enter historical 3.

I don't have lot of clue about EW but boy, you're running me high for The Clueless one title  Grin Grin

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November 13, 2014, 09:58:17 PM
 #2228

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?
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November 13, 2014, 10:02:56 PM
 #2229


Historical Elliott-Wave 1 was 1163; Wave 2 completed below 300 and Wave 3 will end above 1163.

ahhhhh okay thx much clearer ^^

@seleme: Tongue
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November 14, 2014, 07:09:33 PM
 #2230

Right? It works until it doesn't anymore.

All I'm saying is he's a witty technical analysis genius.
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November 14, 2014, 11:56:19 PM
 #2231

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

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November 15, 2014, 05:09:23 AM
 #2232

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs  Grin

thiec
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November 15, 2014, 05:32:23 AM
 #2233

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs  Grin

LOL
EW mostly work in theory and hard to match in market. 100 People draw EW will have 100 different picture result

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November 15, 2014, 12:00:35 PM
 #2234

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs  Grin

LOL
EW mostly work in theory and hard to match in market. 100 People draw EW will have 100 different picture result


That's the problem with EW right there, there are so many different possible counts that there's always one that matches, but it's impossible to predict which count is the right one until the future actually shows us. Maybe traders with good market intuition are able to make money using EW theory, but I'd say that's because of their intuition and not because EW itself has any predictive value. Perhaps EW theory should be seen as a tool to develop this market intuition. Doesn't work for everyone of course but that's why there are many different tools for many different people.

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November 15, 2014, 12:08:56 PM
 #2235

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs  Grin

LOL
EW mostly work in theory and hard to match in market. 100 People draw EW will have 100 different picture result


That's the problem with EW right there, there are so many different possible counts that there's always one that matches, but it's impossible to predict which count is the right one until the future actually shows us. Maybe traders with good market intuition are able to make money using EW theory, but I'd say that's because of their intuition and not because EW itself has any predictive value.

Agree. EW is just method, which work fine on paper, but reallity is completely different.

Tzupy
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November 15, 2014, 01:09:23 PM
 #2236

My current evaluation of the market: the bulls have shown unexpected strength on the offensive, but were unable to hold the conquered ground.
This means the seller pressure is still high, as seen in red volume, and the retracements go too deep to be consistent with an incipient bull market.
However, if the bulls manage another pump to about 500$, then a double bottom at about 275$ in late December becomes possible.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
oda.krell
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November 15, 2014, 01:30:30 PM
 #2237

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs  Grin

LOL
EW mostly work in theory and hard to match in market. 100 People draw EW will have 100 different picture result


That's the problem with EW right there, there are so many different possible counts that there's always one that matches, but it's impossible to predict which count is the right one until the future actually shows us. Maybe traders with good market intuition are able to make money using EW theory, but I'd say that's because of their intuition and not because EW itself has any predictive value. Perhaps EW theory should be seen as a tool to develop this market intuition. Doesn't work for everyone of course but that's why there are many different tools for many different people.

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said that he thinks we're about to see the "end of the historical bull market since BTC trading began".

That's something that simply didn't even cross my mind at the time.

EW is fantastic as a tool at sharpening your intuition and making you consider all (or almost all) possible future market pictures, bullish, bearish, and in between.

People who dismiss EW as useless because "10 different people get 10 different counts" simply never realized that in order to successfully weigh all possible future outcomes by likelihood (i.e. making a prediction), you first have to consider all possible outcomes. And that's where the EW counts come in.

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RyNinDaCleM
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November 15, 2014, 02:48:10 PM
 #2238

So I guess my question is what changed his thinking that we were in 3 last November to we might just be starting 3?

There are 5 waves in a historical cycle.
In this context, the 3 from last November would have been the 3 of 5, so now he is thinking we are in historical 2 where 1 was in November. 5 of 5 of (1) to be more precise.

Disclaimer: The preceding post is not necessarily the view of the poster.

Elliot Wave.

It's like reading books for kids on high drugs  Grin

LOL
EW mostly work in theory and hard to match in market. 100 People draw EW will have 100 different picture result


That's the problem with EW right there, there are so many different possible counts that there's always one that matches, but it's impossible to predict which count is the right one until the future actually shows us. Maybe traders with good market intuition are able to make money using EW theory, but I'd say that's because of their intuition and not because EW itself has any predictive value. Perhaps EW theory should be seen as a tool to develop this market intuition. Doesn't work for everyone of course but that's why there are many different tools for many different people.

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said that he thinks we're about to see the "end of the historical bull market since BTC trading began".

That's something that simply didn't even cross my mind at the time.

EW is fantastic as a tool at sharpening your intuition and making you consider all (or almost all) possible future market pictures, bullish, bearish, and in between.

People who dismiss EW as useless because "10 different people get 10 different counts" simply never realized that in order to successfully weigh all possible future outcomes by likelihood (i.e. making a prediction), you first have to consider all possible outcomes. And that's where the EW counts come in.

Good break down there.
I'll add, that when you use it in conjunction with other tools, the picture becomes clearer and those 10 counts can be refined into 2 or 3 counts as more probable. Then you can set orders and stops based on those to get you in either way it goes.

Sometimes the counts align such that it must go up first no matter where the larger picture is heading, so you get a very good trade R:R ratio

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November 16, 2014, 02:28:47 AM
 #2239

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said that he thinks we're about to see the "end of the historical bull market since BTC trading began".
....

So does anyone want to provide a long term E-Wave count for Bitcoin from the beginning of Bitcoin's trading history?


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November 16, 2014, 03:22:26 AM
 #2240

shall we go lower???
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