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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 900227 times)
Equilux
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January 25, 2014, 11:41:49 AM
 #1321

Stocks are done

Bitcoin... Bitcoin also needs money, which are being tapered. Bitcoin wide acceptance and millions sales on overstock & co means only one: people buy goods, merchants sell bitcoins in their announced volume.

That doesn't need to be the case since bitpay offers the option to receive e percentage or the whole amount payed in BTC and not just in dollars. also many people who bought something at overstock with their BTC replenished them straight away by rebuying BTC at an exchange.

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January 25, 2014, 01:15:09 PM
 #1322

Stocks are done

Bitcoin should eventually follow if the correlation is to continue


We've seen this call from you many times before. What makes this time more likely?
(Serious question, not sarcasm.  I am fan of EW analysis but have been burned on this call before many times)
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January 25, 2014, 06:54:18 PM
 #1323

We've seen this call from you many times before. What makes this time more likely?
(Serious question, not sarcasm.  I am fan of EW analysis but have been burned on this call before many times)

I would simply play it by ear. If the price doesn't bottom at SPX ~1550 (previous 2000 & 2007 highs), then this EW count has merit. If it bottoms at ~1550 then you pretty much have to assume that it'll revisit the highs. Furthermore, keep in mind that there are some other running corrective EW alternatives that allow for one or two more highs before a major top so a total collapse now is far from certain (i.e. I definitely wouldn't bet the farm on it...just yet).

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January 26, 2014, 12:19:31 AM
 #1324

Stocks are done

Bitcoin should eventually follow if the correlation is to continue

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LsIzu6Conxo/UuIDyll1kyI/AAAAAAAAAXU/SfTSPco2wKs/s1600/Dow_weekly_bearish_count_1-23-14.png
We've seen this call from you many times before. What makes this time more likely?
(Serious question, not sarcasm.  I am fan of EW analysis but have been burned on this call before many times)

the question is more serious will the market win ? or will the central planers win ? correction versus money pumping, sadly money pumping can go on for allot of time, so do like Peter Schiff bet on inflation bet on the FED side

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
T.Stuart
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January 26, 2014, 03:15:45 PM
 #1325

Happy new year )

What I see? I see zig-zags, price in positive both daily and weekly BB. What could it mean? It could mean true ending diagonal, which never happened before. And also very fucking risky.






masterluc your E.W. analysis suggesting a significant upward break is mirrored by several other analysts. Can you add any more detail to your previous post?

                                                                               
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masterluc
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January 31, 2014, 10:38:38 AM
 #1326

New thoughts.

So. Now I see three possible scenarios

1. Entering long bearish count.
2. Entering short bullish last wave (I still see it is missing) after completing some triangle,  or by starting bearish wedge to new ath
3. New. Entering long sideways range.

I see price failing leave daily bb borders for too long time. This makes me think that price may enter stagnation like it was jan-may 2012. But for a larger period of time. Probably till next reward halving like it was in 2012.

Now I watch for daily bb and taking decision to switch into range trading mode.

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

Rampion
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January 31, 2014, 10:45:06 AM
 #1327

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

It looks like this is the case indeed.

JustAnotherSheep
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January 31, 2014, 11:45:24 AM
 #1328

Noob question, but can't the bear triangle be seen as valid still if the whale dump is dismissed as overreaction/false breakout/artificial price movement? Or does this have to be taken into account regardless?



Because I still see the pattern of gradually lower highs approaching the static support line. Surely this is a bearish sign?

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
windjc
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February 01, 2014, 12:57:39 AM
 #1329

New thoughts.

So. Now I see three possible scenarios

1. Entering long bearish count.
2. Entering short bullish last wave (I still see it is missing) after completing some triangle,  or by starting bearish wedge to new ath
3. New. Entering long sideways range.

I see price failing leave daily bb borders for too long time. This makes me think that price may enter stagnation like it was jan-may 2012. But for a larger period of time. Probably till next reward halving like it was in 2012.

Now I watch for daily bb and taking decision to switch into range trading mode.

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

I thought you weren't going to be trading for another 3-4 years? Wink
cAPSLOCK
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February 01, 2014, 02:18:31 AM
 #1330


Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.
pinky
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February 01, 2014, 08:42:32 AM
 #1331


Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.

Nope, this is common knowledge now (for almost a year) and if it happens won't have as much of an effect on a price as everyone is expecting. Everybody is aware of this thing, even newbies - meaning it is priced in.

I think you should be more worried about countries banning btc, lagging development of btc features and the fact that a few years went by and btc ecosystem is still full of idiots, speculators and scammers.



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lebing
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Enabling the maximal migration


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February 01, 2014, 10:59:35 AM
 #1332


Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.

Nope, this is common knowledge now (for almost a year) and if it happens won't have as much of an effect on a price as everyone is expecting. Everybody is aware of this thing, even newbies - meaning it is priced in.

I think you should be more worried about countries banning btc, lagging development of btc features and the fact that a few years went by and btc ecosystem is still full of idiots, speculators and scammers.

Ya this has been priced in since may of last year pretty much. Gox could die and very few people in the community would really care.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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February 01, 2014, 10:06:00 PM
 #1333


Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.

Nope, this is common knowledge now (for almost a year) and if it happens won't have as much of an effect on a price as everyone is expecting. Everybody is aware of this thing, even newbies - meaning it is priced in.

I think you should be more worried about countries banning btc, lagging development of btc features and the fact that a few years went by and btc ecosystem is still full of idiots, speculators and scammers.

Ya this has been priced in since may of last year pretty much. Gox could die and very few people in the community would really care.
bolded to emphasize who else might care
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February 01, 2014, 10:24:30 PM
 #1334

Noob question, but can't the bear triangle be seen as valid still if the whale dump is dismissed as overreaction/false breakout/artificial price movement? Or does this have to be taken into account regardless?



Because I still see the pattern of gradually lower highs approaching the static support line. Surely this is a bearish sign?

I would stop using that triangle to look for a upwards breakout after it dipped below the lower bound. At this point it becomes utterly useless.
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February 01, 2014, 10:31:43 PM
 #1335

Noob question, but can't the bear triangle be seen as valid still if the whale dump is dismissed as overreaction/false breakout/artificial price movement? Or does this have to be taken into account regardless?



Because I still see the pattern of gradually lower highs approaching the static support line. Surely this is a bearish sign?

I would stop using that triangle to look for a upwards breakout after it dipped below the lower bound. At this point it becomes utterly useless.
not mandarory if the dip was very short (< 1 day)
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February 01, 2014, 10:37:01 PM
 #1336

That's only true if you aren't drawing it from the candlewicks (price extrema). And in that case you should use some sort of volume averaging, weighted moving average for example.


Here is how that would look like, suddenly this flat wedge becomes a falling wedge however...


But it's more straight forward to use trading channels instead, tradingview even provides an automated linear regression tool for them.
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February 01, 2014, 10:58:03 PM
 #1337

Keep in mind that even so that is only true in hindsight, and the wedge has been broken already on both sides even with the moving average before. You can redraw it ad infinitum until the support/resistance level. That's why I think drawing triangles doesn't help in determining breakouts.

here is the "completely right" version which shows a breakout of a bearish wedge.


As you see it did "break out" a portion of the now larger wedge before, that's why I don't see them as helpful.
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February 01, 2014, 11:02:43 PM
 #1338

Keep in mind that even so that is only true in hindsight, and the wedge has been broken already on both sides even with the moving average before. You can redraw it ad infinitum until the support/resistance level. That's why I think drawing triangles doesn't help in determining breakouts.
perhaps tomorrow more. I am tired , but thanks anyway
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February 02, 2014, 07:23:57 PM
 #1339

@ElectricMucus
I think triangles.wegdes,flags and pennants are quite good forecasting possible breakouts. Most breakouts follow the previous underlying and dominating trenddirection.
Since 2011 we have a very bullish uptrend and even SR and China could not endanger this trend.

And the breakout we were discussing was the Charly Shrem-case. Those extraordinary events can be ignored or called false breakouts.
Particularly as they are corrected in few hours.

Now we have many midterm-or short-term TA which are very difficult due to the unbelievable dynamic of the BTC-Pricemovements.
And ,additionaly aggravating is the fact, we are in a lateral movement which is difficult to trade and to forecast the outcome.

So,as I think we keep this lateral movement perhaps for the next 2-4 month I do not very much TA but wait for more bullish times.

In tradingview.com I will do some Charts just for fun not for publishing.
BrightAnarchist
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February 05, 2014, 12:34:34 AM
 #1340

1st impulse to the downside in stocks is complete. So we should continue to rally for a little while (a couple weeks maybe); if we don't immediately rally, then we will soon enough. Regardless, then comes wave 3 down, which should be significantly larger than the first decline - and taking the S&P into the 1600s or lower

Not sure when Bitcoin will follow. If not during this next decline, then it may be a few more months before Bitcoin follows (when a decline begins in the S&P that's yet another one degree larger).

I'm hoping that some of my favorite indicators will provide a bearish signal near the top of the rally so I can get some leverage in place before the next fall.
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