Analysis

[myself]

Stocks are done

Bitcoin should eventually follow if the correlation is to continue

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LsIzu6Conxo/UuIDyll1kyI/AAAAAAAAAXU/SfTSPco2wKs/s1600/Dow_weekly_bearish_count_1-23-14.png

We've seen this call from you many times before. What makes this time more likely?
(Serious question, not sarcasm.  I am fan of EW analysis but have been burned on this call before many times)

the question is more serious will the market win ? or will the central planers win ? correction versus money pumping, sadly money pumping can go on for allot of time, so do like Peter Schiff bet on inflation bet on the FED side

[T.Stuart]

Happy new year )

What I see? I see zig-zags, price in positive both daily and weekly BB. What could it mean? It could mean true ending diagonal, which never happened before. And also very fucking risky.

masterluc your E.W. analysis suggesting a significant upward break is mirrored by several other analysts. Can you add any more detail to your previous post?

[masterluc]

New thoughts.

So. Now I see three possible scenarios

1. Entering long bearish count.
2. Entering short bullish last wave (I still see it is missing) after completing some triangle,  or by starting bearish wedge to new ath
3. New. Entering long sideways range.

I see price failing leave daily bb borders for too long time. This makes me think that price may enter stagnation like it was jan-may 2012. But for a larger period of time. Probably till next reward halving like it was in 2012.

Now I watch for daily bb and taking decision to switch into range trading mode.

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

[Rampion]

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

It looks like this is the case indeed.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Noob question, but can't the bear triangle be seen as valid still if the whale dump is dismissed as overreaction/false breakout/artificial price movement? Or does this have to be taken into account regardless?



Because I still see the pattern of gradually lower highs approaching the static support line. Surely this is a bearish sign?

[windjc]

New thoughts.

So. Now I see three possible scenarios

1. Entering long bearish count.
2. Entering short bullish last wave (I still see it is missing) after completing some triangle,  or by starting bearish wedge to new ath
3. New. Entering long sideways range.

I see price failing leave daily bb borders for too long time. This makes me think that price may enter stagnation like it was jan-may 2012. But for a larger period of time. Probably till next reward halving like it was in 2012.

Now I watch for daily bb and taking decision to switch into range trading mode.

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

I thought you weren't going to be trading for another 3-4 years?

[cAPSLOCK]

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.

[pinky]

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.

Nope, this is common knowledge now (for almost a year) and if it happens won't have as much of an effect on a price as everyone is expecting. Everybody is aware of this thing, even newbies - meaning it is priced in.

I think you should be more worried about countries banning btc, lagging development of btc features and the fact that a few years went by and btc ecosystem is still full of idiots, speculators and scammers.

[lebing]

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.

Nope, this is common knowledge now (for almost a year) and if it happens won't have as much of an effect on a price as everyone is expecting. Everybody is aware of this thing, even newbies - meaning it is priced in.

I think you should be more worried about countries banning btc, lagging development of btc features and the fact that a few years went by and btc ecosystem is still full of idiots, speculators and scammers.

Ya this has been priced in since may of last year pretty much. Gox could die and very few people in the community would really care.

[ampere9765]

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.

Nope, this is common knowledge now (for almost a year) and if it happens won't have as much of an effect on a price as everyone is expecting. Everybody is aware of this thing, even newbies - meaning it is priced in.

I think you should be more worried about countries banning btc, lagging development of btc features and the fact that a few years went by and btc ecosystem is still full of idiots, speculators and scammers.

Ya this has been priced in since may of last year pretty much. Gox could die and very few people in the community would really care.

bolded to emphasize who else might care

[ElectricMucus]

Noob question, but can't the bear triangle be seen as valid still if the whale dump is dismissed as overreaction/false breakout/artificial price movement? Or does this have to be taken into account regardless?



Because I still see the pattern of gradually lower highs approaching the static support line. Surely this is a bearish sign?

I would stop using that triangle to look for a upwards breakout after it dipped below the lower bound. At this point it becomes utterly useless.

[segeln]

Noob question, but can't the bear triangle be seen as valid still if the whale dump is dismissed as overreaction/false breakout/artificial price movement? Or does this have to be taken into account regardless?



Because I still see the pattern of gradually lower highs approaching the static support line. Surely this is a bearish sign?

I would stop using that triangle to look for a upwards breakout after it dipped below the lower bound. At this point it becomes utterly useless.

not mandarory if the dip was very short (< 1 day)

[ElectricMucus]

That's only true if you aren't drawing it from the candlewicks (price extrema). And in that case you should use some sort of volume averaging, weighted moving average for example.


Here is how that would look like, suddenly this flat wedge becomes a falling wedge however...


But it's more straight forward to use trading channels instead, tradingview even provides an automated linear regression tool for them.

[ElectricMucus]

Keep in mind that even so that is only true in hindsight, and the wedge has been broken already on both sides even with the moving average before. You can redraw it ad infinitum until the support/resistance level. That's why I think drawing triangles doesn't help in determining breakouts.

here is the "completely right" version which shows a breakout of a bearish wedge.


As you see it did "break out" a portion of the now larger wedge before, that's why I don't see them as helpful.

[segeln]

Keep in mind that even so that is only true in hindsight, and the wedge has been broken already on both sides even with the moving average before. You can redraw it ad infinitum until the support/resistance level. That's why I think drawing triangles doesn't help in determining breakouts.

perhaps tomorrow more. I am tired , but thanks anyway

[segeln]

@ElectricMucus
I think triangles.wegdes,flags and pennants are quite good forecasting possible breakouts. Most breakouts follow the previous underlying and dominating trenddirection.
Since 2011 we have a very bullish uptrend and even SR and China could not endanger this trend.

And the breakout we were discussing was the Charly Shrem-case. Those extraordinary events can be ignored or called false breakouts.
Particularly as they are corrected in few hours.

Now we have many midterm-or short-term TA which are very difficult due to the unbelievable dynamic of the BTC-Pricemovements.
And ,additionaly aggravating is the fact, we are in a lateral movement which is difficult to trade and to forecast the outcome.

So,as I think we keep this lateral movement perhaps for the next 2-4 month I do not very much TA but wait for more bullish times.

In tradingview.com I will do some Charts just for fun not for publishing.

[BrightAnarchist]

1st impulse to the downside in stocks is complete. So we should continue to rally for a little while (a couple weeks maybe); if we don't immediately rally, then we will soon enough. Regardless, then comes wave 3 down, which should be significantly larger than the first decline - and taking the S&P into the 1600s or lower

Not sure when Bitcoin will follow. If not during this next decline, then it may be a few more months before Bitcoin follows (when a decline begins in the S&P that's yet another one degree larger).

I'm hoping that some of my favorite indicators will provide a bearish signal near the top of the rally so I can get some leverage in place before the next fall.

[windjc]

1st impulse to the downside in stocks is complete. So we should continue to rally for a little while (a couple weeks maybe); if we don't immediately rally, then we will soon enough. Regardless, then comes wave 3 down, which should be significantly larger than the first decline - and taking the S&P into the 1600s or lower

Not sure when Bitcoin will follow. If not during this next decline, then it may be a few more months before Bitcoin follows (when a decline begins in the S&P that's yet another one degree larger).

I'm hoping that some of my favorite indicators will provide a bearish signal near the top of the rally so I can get some leverage in place before the next fall.

Yes because there is a case history study of how bitcoin goes down when the market crashes. Except, there's not and what your are hoping for is pure speculation.

It's funny. People act like money is created or destroyed when stock markets go down. Buts it's not. The money just leaves and goes somewhere else.

[hdbuck]

1st impulse to the downside in stocks is complete. So we should continue to rally for a little while (a couple weeks maybe); if we don't immediately rally, then we will soon enough. Regardless, then comes wave 3 down, which should be significantly larger than the first decline - and taking the S&P into the 1600s or lower

Not sure when Bitcoin will follow. If not during this next decline, then it may be a few more months before Bitcoin follows (when a decline begins in the S&P that's yet another one degree larger).

I'm hoping that some of my favorite indicators will provide a bearish signal near the top of the rally so I can get some leverage in place before the next fall.

Yes because there is a case history study of how bitcoin goes down when the market crashes. Except, there's not and what your are hoping for is pure speculation.

It's funny. People act like money is created or destroyed when stock markets go down. Buts it's not. The money just leaves and goes somewhere else.

Assuming stock markets are based on money supply and not just meaningless numbers.

[BrightAnarchist]

Yes because there is a case history study of how bitcoin goes down when the market crashes. Except, there's not and what your are hoping for is pure speculation.

Yerp. And what forum section are we in, again?