🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[TopTort777]

If the old Jon Jones steps in the heavyweight division he will once again defeat each and every fighter without any exception but he is abusing his body for a long time with drugs and alcohol and you never know when that will bite back as well.

I dont think that he will easily defeat each and every in heavyweight division. He is skilled and quick, but can he stand against the power of fighters? Will he be able to survive heavy punches, as guys that weight 110-120kg strike much harder than 93kg? Lots of his last fights ended with decision. lots of his last fights were on the distance. Will he be able to keep Gane, Ngannou, Miocic, Blaydes all the time on the distance?

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[YuginKadoya]

The Gastelum fight might be worth putting a bet on for going the distance depending on the odds, that's if you don't want to predict either way. I'm actually thinking a Kelvin Gastelum decision win is on the cards. Kelvin Gastelum has probably the best fight against Adesanya, other than Jan who beat him so he clearly knows how to stay safe against strikers, and he's a wrestler. Wrestlers notoriously do well against strikers.

I've been thinking the same thing and what I have said in my previous post, Gastelum really did a great job against Izzy, his performance really did pressure Adesanya back then, and if he can pull that out again with his improved wrestling maybe he can really win against Jared Cannonier but again I am still checking on something and I am not finished with my research if Gastelum could make it happen, If I can visualize what may happen on the ring I would post my pick and opinion regarding this, right now Jared Cannonier is still favorite in stake.com with an odd of 1.67 and Gatelum with 2.37.

[tokeweed]

^  Yup.  I’m kinda leaning Gastelum to win here too just cos he attempts more TD’s per match and Cannonier’s TD defense isn’t really that good.  Around 54% according to the stats:

http://www.ufcstats.com/fight-details/f536ba47f006474a

But the line tho.  It needs more value to be against a big bad mofo like Cannonier.  The guy used to fight in HW.  Lol.

[YuginKadoya]

^  Yup.  I’m kinda leaning Gastelum to win here too just cos he attempts more TD’s per match and Cannonier’s TD defense isn’t really that good.  Around 54% according to the stats:

http://www.ufcstats.com/fight-details/f536ba47f006474a

But the line tho.  It needs more value to be against a big bad mofo like Cannonier.  The guy used to fight in HW.  Lol.

Great find with the stat on the takedown defense of Jared Cannonier, but even though Jared Cannonier is really bad in that division his Striking potential is really awesome that is why he is the favorite with the odds, but we can not set aside the potential of Kelvin Gastelum, this guys has proven his worth and if he is really focusing with his wrestling then Cannonier will be having a hard time, even though Gastelum is the underdog here, he still has the potential to surely make Cannonier pressure and destroy his momentum because of those takedowns.

[tokeweed]

^  And Gastelum has a cast iron chin.  He has never been KO’d in the UFC..  I haven’t looked closely into it but maybe even in his whole career.  But still no value in the over 4.5 at pickem odds imo.

No bets yet but other spots I’m looking at are Guida to win, under 2.5 rounds in the Pantoja vs Royval match, over 1.5 rounds in Knight vs Cherant, Pichel to win, Saldana to win, Roberts to win and Brahimaj to win.  This cars is a sleeper imo.  Lot’s of spots.

Vids...

UFC Vegas 34 Free Fight:  Cannonier vs Hermansson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvpn33ESCYQ

UFC Vegas 34 Free Fight:  Gastelum vs Jacare
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yETLTn3seFA

[notblox1]

I’m kinda leaning Gastelum to win here too just cos he attempts more TD’s per match and Cannonier’s TD defense isn’t really that good.  Around 54% according to the stats:

Yes but Cannonier has bigger 6 inch reach advantage than Gastelum and his striking accuracy is also better.
Odds are showing that Cannonier is a big favorite in this fight  and Gastelum won only one fight from last five, so not much is going in his favor for this fight.

If you think that MMA fighters make a lot of money than you will be shocked by Cyril Gane statement who said that in his last fight with Lewis he earned $350,000, but when he paid taxes, his team and coaches he was left with only $188,000.
That is nothing compared with money that boxers earn and only top MMA fighters earned millions
https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2021/08/ufc-news-ciryl-gane-reveals-interim-heavyweight-title-purse-against-derrick-lewis

[7788bitcoin]

~
I dont think that he will easily defeat each and every in heavyweight division. He is skilled and quick, but can he stand against the power of fighters? Will he be able to survive heavy punches, as guys that weight 110-120kg strike much harder than 93kg? Lots of his last fights ended with decision. lots of his last fights were on the distance. Will he be able to keep Gane, Ngannou, Miocic, Blaydes all the time on the distance?

One thing everyone will accept is that Jon Jones will be much faster than anyone in the Heavyweight division, if you can see the shot coming then he will evade. He faced many champions during his reign and no one was able to catch him and knock him down and you think Jon Jones will not evade these heavy punches, he still have his long reach advantage than anyone else . I am sure he will tactically break down the fighter as majority will tire down once the fight goes the third round and he will pick apart.

[TheNineClub]

~
I dont think that he will easily defeat each and every in heavyweight division. He is skilled and quick, but can he stand against the power of fighters? Will he be able to survive heavy punches, as guys that weight 110-120kg strike much harder than 93kg? Lots of his last fights ended with decision. lots of his last fights were on the distance. Will he be able to keep Gane, Ngannou, Miocic, Blaydes all the time on the distance?

One thing everyone will accept is that Jon Jones will be much faster than anyone in the Heavyweight division, if you can see the shot coming then he will evade. He faced many champions during his reign and no one was able to catch him and knock him down and you think Jon Jones will not evade these heavy punches, he still have his long reach advantage than anyone else . I am sure he will tactically break down the fighter as majority will tire down once the fight goes the third round and he will pick apart.

I would disagree on that one. He will be much faster if he is much lighter, however, for comparison Miočić fights around 109kg so Jones would have to be around 100 to make a difference in speed, but with that, he is opening himself up to not being able to withstand shots if taken or get people off him if taken down. And remember Jones vs OSP? Gregg Jackson commented how slow he was because he packed on so much muscle in his off time by powerlifting. You can't just pack on weight and expect to retain the same exact style of fighting.

[Welsh]

Yes but Cannonier has bigger 6 inch reach advantage than Gastelum and his striking accuracy is also better.
Odds are showing that Cannonier is a big favorite in this fight  and Gastelum won only one fight from last five, so not much is going in his favor for this fight.

Best time to bet on a fighter in my opinion. The odds will reflect that the fighter has been having a rough time recently, and the fighter themselves will want to redeem themselves. Especially, if they are concerned about being cut from the UFC. Gastelum at around 4.00 for a decision win is good value considering his obvious strengths in wrestling, and I find whenever there's a wrestler against a striker, the striker performs subpar due to the threat of a take down. I'm definitely putting Gastelum on my accumulator this weekend.

[tokeweed]

If you guys are looking for a good underdog to put some action on avoid Gastelum.  No value.  I mean yeah he has the skills and could even prolly finish Cannonier.  But check his record as of late.  He’s not an a good mind set to take on top fivers.  His last win was a tune up fight vs Heinisch.  I think Royval at 2.45 is a better underdog bet.  But get in now before the line becomes closer.

[YuginKadoya]

^  And Gastelum has a cast iron chin.  He has never been KO’d in the UFC..  I haven’t looked closely into it but maybe even in his whole career.  But still no value in the over 4.5 at pickem odds imo.

No bets yet but other spots I’m looking at are Guida to win, under 2.5 rounds in the Pantoja vs Royval match, over 1.5 rounds in Knight vs Cherant, Pichel to win, Saldana to win, Roberts to win and Brahimaj to win.  This cars is a sleeper imo.  Lot’s of spots.

Vids...

UFC Vegas 34 Free Fight:  Cannonier vs Hermansson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvpn33ESCYQ

UFC Vegas 34 Free Fight:  Gastelum vs Jacare
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yETLTn3seFA

Yes! Gastelum's Durability is out of this world, and you are right there are no TKO/KO defeated on Gastelum records, if you would look at Gastelum's record fights all of his losses was either Desicion and Submission and the iron chin is really equip to Gastelum for that tremendous durability that he has, I might look even further but a little more encouragement and I would really go with Kelvin Gastelum to hug and drive Cannonier to the ground with his wrestling, and Gastelum can really trade punches without a care for the guard and despite his reach and size he is a heavy hitter and have more power with his left punch.

[Welsh]

If you guys are looking for a good underdog to put some action on avoid Gastelum.  No value.  I mean yeah he has the skills and could even prolly finish Cannonier.  But check his record as of late.  He’s not an a good mind set to take on top fivers.  His last win was a tune up fight vs Heinisch.  I think Royval at 2.45 is a better underdog bet.  But get in now before the line becomes closer.

I went for Kelvin @ 4.33 to win by decision, which I think is probably the most likely route of victory if he is to win the fight. I don't see him knocking out Cannonier, and the same for a submission. A ideal bet might have been betting for the fight to go the distance, but I didn't check the odds on that. I've also got Royval on my accumulator, I'm feeling a night of the underdogs is on the cards.

[notblox1]

Best time to bet on a fighter in my opinion. The odds will reflect that the fighter has been having a rough time recently, and the fighter themselves will want to redeem themselves. Especially, if they are concerned about being cut from the UFC. Gastelum at around 4.00 for a decision win is good value considering his obvious strengths in wrestling, and I find whenever there's a wrestler against a striker, the striker performs subpar due to the threat of a take down. I'm definitely putting Gastelum on my accumulator this weekend.

I am just not convinced in Gastelum at all, he looks a lot like a wild bull with a lot of power but without much brain and strategy in fighting, but I could be wrong.
I need to listen and watch their per-fight interviews before I make my final decision, and here is media day LIVE stream just now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=743GNPZe-oM

[Welsh]

Kelvin used to be better, recently he's been somewhat declining. Though, I'm all for a underdog being written off towards the end of their career, and then surprising a few people. To be honest, I usually take the unlikely bets over ones which actually make sense . If you watch the Adesanya fight, you'll see the potential there. Alright, not a world beater, but definitely someone who knows how to fight, particularly wrestling.

[bbc.reporter]

^  Yup.  I’m kinda leaning Gastelum to win here too just cos he attempts more TD’s per match and Cannonier’s TD defense isn’t really that good.  Around 54% according to the stats:

http://www.ufcstats.com/fight-details/f536ba47f006474a

But the line tho.  It needs more value to be against a big bad mofo like Cannonier.  The guy used to fight in HW.  Lol.

Great find with the stat on the takedown defense of Jared Cannonier, but even though Jared Cannonier is really bad in that division his Striking potential is really awesome that is why he is the favorite with the odds, but we can not set aside the potential of Kelvin Gastelum, this guys has proven his worth and if he is really focusing with his wrestling then Cannonier will be having a hard time, even though Gastelum is the underdog here, he still has the potential to surely make Cannonier pressure and destroy his momentum because of those takedowns.

I reckon @tokeweed did not consider that the data on Jared Cannonier is from 3 weight divisions. We should remove all of the data from the heavweight division and the light heavyweight division. We might discover that Jared will have higher takedown defense in the middleweight division.

[TheNineClub]

^  Yup.  I’m kinda leaning Gastelum to win here too just cos he attempts more TD’s per match and Cannonier’s TD defense isn’t really that good.  Around 54% according to the stats:

http://www.ufcstats.com/fight-details/f536ba47f006474a

But the line tho.  It needs more value to be against a big bad mofo like Cannonier.  The guy used to fight in HW.  Lol.

Great find with the stat on the takedown defense of Jared Cannonier, but even though Jared Cannonier is really bad in that division his Striking potential is really awesome that is why he is the favorite with the odds, but we can not set aside the potential of Kelvin Gastelum, this guys has proven his worth and if he is really focusing with his wrestling then Cannonier will be having a hard time, even though Gastelum is the underdog here, he still has the potential to surely make Cannonier pressure and destroy his momentum because of those takedowns.

I reckon @tokeweed did not consider that the data on Jared Cannonier is from 3 weight divisions. We should remove all of the data from the heavweight division and the light heavyweight division. We might discover that Jared will have higher takedown defense in the middleweight division.

Mhm...maybe, but MMA math usually doesn't work out that way. Well, with some it does, but those are rare. Usually, things fall apart in the most unpredictable ways. What I have observed is that the tactics have to change depending on the division so it's not just a matter of being able to go for TD defense quicker, but also other factors need to be included.

[YuginKadoya]

^  Yup.  I’m kinda leaning Gastelum to win here too just cos he attempts more TD’s per match and Cannonier’s TD defense isn’t really that good.  Around 54% according to the stats:

http://www.ufcstats.com/fight-details/f536ba47f006474a

But the line tho.  It needs more value to be against a big bad mofo like Cannonier.  The guy used to fight in HW.  Lol.

Great find with the stat on the takedown defense of Jared Cannonier, but even though Jared Cannonier is really bad in that division his Striking potential is really awesome that is why he is the favorite with the odds, but we can not set aside the potential of Kelvin Gastelum, this guys has proven his worth and if he is really focusing with his wrestling then Cannonier will be having a hard time, even though Gastelum is the underdog here, he still has the potential to surely make Cannonier pressure and destroy his momentum because of those takedowns.

I reckon @tokeweed did not consider that the data on Jared Cannonier is from 3 weight divisions. We should remove all of the data from the heavweight division and the light heavyweight division. We might discover that Jared will have higher takedown defense in the middleweight division.

I should say after checking Jared Cannonier's stats and his fight history in wiki yes he fights to start as a heavyweight but was beat badly by Shawn Jordan and Cannonier back then was really fat, then Won against Cyril Asker, Then go down 1 division to fight Ion Cutelaba this time on the Light Heavyweight, After his losses to Jan Blachowicz and Dominick Reyes he Debuts against David Branch in the Middleweight Division and got the performance of the night against Jack Hermansson with TKO Punches, that Kelvin Gastelum loss with a submission heel hook against Hermansson, This is what I am not seeing and thank you for pointing it out, Kelvin Gastelum was from Welterweight to the Middleweight Division but Jared Cannonier, was from a higher division, I might change my opinion with my pick from Gastelum to Cannonier.

[tokeweed]

^  Yup.  I’m kinda leaning Gastelum to win here too just cos he attempts more TD’s per match and Cannonier’s TD defense isn’t really that good.  Around 54% according to the stats:

http://www.ufcstats.com/fight-details/f536ba47f006474a

But the line tho.  It needs more value to be against a big bad mofo like Cannonier.  The guy used to fight in HW.  Lol.

Great find with the stat on the takedown defense of Jared Cannonier, but even though Jared Cannonier is really bad in that division his Striking potential is really awesome that is why he is the favorite with the odds, but we can not set aside the potential of Kelvin Gastelum, this guys has proven his worth and if he is really focusing with his wrestling then Cannonier will be having a hard time, even though Gastelum is the underdog here, he still has the potential to surely make Cannonier pressure and destroy his momentum because of those takedowns.

I reckon @tokeweed did not consider that the data on Jared Cannonier is from 3 weight divisions. We should remove all of the data from the heavweight division and the light heavyweight division. We might discover that Jared will have higher takedown defense in the middleweight division.

Ok...  So Cannonier had 4 matches at 185 which only two opponents had landed a total of 4 TD’s out of 16 TD’s attempted.  That makes his TD defense at 75% at 185 so far.  And if you watch tape of his past fights, he is def strong enough to get himself up when taken down.  

http://www.ufcstats.com/fighter-details/13a0275fa13c4d26

So yeah...  Like I said, not enough value with Gastelum.

Edit:  Strong leans on the under 2.5 rounds in the Palatnikov vs Brahimaj match, Roosevelt Roberts to win, Kelleher to win, and Pichel to win.

Edit:  Oh and here’s Sportsbet’s Multi Master.

Sportsbet.io UFC Vegas 34 Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5355282.0

[Welsh]

I think there's enough value on Kelvin at a decision win, that's what I see the most likely if he is to win. Going for a William Knight decision too, I think most are probably expecting a knock out, but just to squeeze those odds out I've gone for the decision again at 4.33. It'll probably be a knockout, but at 2.38 I'm not sure its worth putting on. I don't see Fabio Cherant winning in any shape or form.

[TheNineClub]

I think there's enough value on Kelvin at a decision win, that's what I see the most likely if he is to win. Going for a William Knight decision too, I think most are probably expecting a knock out, but just to squeeze those odds out I've gone for the decision again at 4.33. It'll probably be a knockout, but at 2.38 I'm not sure its worth putting on. I don't see Fabio Cherant winning in any shape or form.

He doesn't have all that good of history with decisions in title fights, lost both of them (we are talking about 5 round fights, not 3), so that could be telling. I can't, for the life of me remember if it's because of his gas tank or what. However, Cannonier has never fought a fiver rounder to length so let's see who buckles first.