Harris Vs Trump - Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[Finestream]

The polls from the people are making the media look that this is a close battle. I'm not aware of how things go there in the US and I'm only basing my thoughts about what's shown by the media through their numbers.

In the bookies, it's Kamala who's the front liner and Trump is on the second. Still, the decision will be from the majority of each state then.

As per the bookies, Kamala is trailing behind Trump by a sizable margin. Where did you saw that Kamala is ahead? The aggregate of polls in RCP shows Trump with 287 electoral votes, and Kamala with 251.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

In terms of popular vote, Harris is ahead by 1.5%, but that hardly matters. Due to the presence of deep blue states, it is very much possible for Kamala to win the popular vote, and yet lose the electoral vote (and that's what happened in 2016, when Hillary won the popular vote and still lost the electoral college to Trump by a margin of 304 vs 227).

Was that based on bookies? I think if we talk about bookies it should be on the betting lines that are available online.

If you look at here https://www.oddschecker.com/us/politics/us-politics
Odds are almost 50-50, and that indicates that this could be a close fight between the two.

What you shared are some kind of a poll, not something from bookies or oddsmaker.

[Haunebu]

Was that based on bookies? I think if we talk about bookies it should be on the betting lines that are available online.

If you look at here https://www.oddschecker.com/us/politics/us-politics
Odds are almost 50-50, and that indicates that this could be a close fight between the two.

What you shared are some kind of a poll, not something from bookies or oddsmaker.

Agreed. True odds are evenly split 50:50 between them at the moment and all of those polls are totally biased towards either side thanks to which they are useless. Swing states matter far more than all of these confusing polls.

Both Trump and Harris still have some more time to tip the scales in their favor before the elections. Let's see what happens.

[laijsica]

I don't see Kamala winning the election. If she was really strong, like the media is trying to label

The polls from the people are making the media look that this is a close battle. I'm not aware of how things go there in the US and I'm only basing my thoughts about what's shown by the media through their numbers.

In the bookies, it's Kamala who's the front liner and Trump is on the second. Still, the decision will be from the majority of each state then.

Kamala is ahead in the polls but in a growing way that will make people interested in changing opinions. There may be reasons for the United States to choose a woman president, but I think the lack of qualified candidates is widely observed. Someone more qualified should have hoped ahead where Trump, an older and more controversial case defendant, should have been a more qualified president of the US for a better and war-free world altogether.

[Sithara007]

Was that based on bookies? I think if we talk about bookies it should be on the betting lines that are available online.

If you look at here https://www.oddschecker.com/us/politics/us-politics
Odds are almost 50-50, and that indicates that this could be a close fight between the two.

What you shared are some kind of a poll, not something from bookies or oddsmaker.

If you want odds from bookies, then here it is:

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1724420032971

At the moment, Trump is ahead by 51%, while Kamala is at 47%.

What I posted is an aggregate of the polls, from one of the most reliable pollsters in the United States. And rather than polling based on popular vote, those based on electoral college votes are more accurate. Anyway, in both cases Trump is ahead of Kamala at this point. And once the bump from DNC circus weans off, I expect Trump to widen the gap with Kamala.

[uneng]

If I'm not mistaken it was agreed that each country would spend a minimum of 2% of their GDP on defense (not to NATO, as you said), but many just didn't bother doing that, hoping that US will do all the work when shit hits the fan.

Yes, you are right, each country has to invest a determined percentage of their GDP on military defense. It's fair that everyone gives their contribution, however, it wasn't a nice move from Trump to talk publicly that US wouldn't help NATO's countries which didn't meet the criteria. That was something he could demand on the backgrounds in order to not raise the enemy's morale and appetite.

But since he did, he isn't a good ally at all, as he uses blackmail methods against friends in order to achieve his goals. Moreover, it just creates more hostily between US and european allies, causing more disintegration than union, and stipulating alliances based solely on financial matters, instead of long lasting alliances based on values in common.

And I'm not a big fan of Putin, but the claims that he wants to invade Europe are a bit ridiculous. They can't even take control of the east parts of Ukraine, how would they invade and control much larger territories with a population exceeding their own 3 times? It's impossible to pull off. It's much easier and cheaper to get what they want from other countries by buying corrupt politicians.

Ukraine is being supported by the west. A small country which doesn't receive western support is more likely to fall to in a short time period. I prefer to not underestimate the strength of a country like Russia which is ruled by a tyrant who had many of his russian oppositors assassinated through poison or in mysterious circumstances.

[Saint-loup]

yes I agree with that, most polls are irrelevant for the POTUS election, except maybe those from swing states or "almost" swing states. Because they can't predict the winner by their own. We shouldn't forget that Donald Trump won the election in 2016 despite having less votes over the whole country than Hillary Clinton, he got almost 3 millions less votes than her, it's considerable. That's why I prefer looking at odds from bookmakers to have a better view on the winning chances of the candidates, they usually know which polls are the most relevant to predict the victory and how to analyze them.

[jossiel]

The polls from the people are making the media look that this is a close battle. I'm not aware of how things go there in the US and I'm only basing my thoughts about what's shown by the media through their numbers.

In the bookies, it's Kamala who's the front liner and Trump is on the second. Still, the decision will be from the majority of each state then.

As per the bookies, Kamala is trailing behind Trump by a sizable margin. Where did you saw that Kamala is ahead? The aggregate of polls in RCP shows Trump with 287 electoral votes, and Kamala with 251.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

In terms of popular vote, Harris is ahead by 1.5%, but that hardly matters. Due to the presence of deep blue states, it is very much possible for Kamala to win the popular vote, and yet lose the electoral vote (and that's what happened in 2016, when Hillary won the popular vote and still lost the electoral college to Trump by a margin of 304 vs 227).

I just based it on the odds and that's why I've said that she's the front liner. While with the news and sentiments of the people, I think that Trump is really likely to win after that assassination attempt happened.

Thanks, I understand that despite with all of these ratings that they're getting now, it's still the electoral college that shall proclaim the winner of this poll.

[Sithara007]

I just based it on the odds and that's why I've said that she's the front liner. While with the news and sentiments of the people, I think that Trump is really likely to win after that assassination attempt happened.

Thanks, I understand that despite with all of these ratings that they're getting now, it's still the electoral college that shall proclaim the winner of this poll.

The very first thing that we need to understand is that the outcome of the POTUS elections in the United States is not decided by all the 50 states. The outcome is dependent on a handful of "swing" states. So it doesn't matter how much support Kamala or Trump can garner in deep-blue or deep-red states such as New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma or Alabama. The election will be decided by the voters in states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia. The problem with nation-wide opinion polls is that they take the full picture by taking all 50 states into account.

[tygeade]

If you want odds from bookies, then here it is:

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1724420032971

At the moment, Trump is ahead by 51%, while Kamala is at 47%.

What I posted is an aggregate of the polls, from one of the most reliable pollsters in the United States. And rather than polling based on popular vote, those based on electoral college votes are more accurate. Anyway, in both cases Trump is ahead of Kamala at this point. And once the bump from DNC circus weans off, I expect Trump to widen the gap with Kamala.

Nope, not an aggregate of all the pollster or anything, not a good betting place neither. Because, that's a p2p betting website, which means that it gives odds based on what people put money in at given time periods, and considering Trump has always been the candidate, and Kamala became the candidate later on, that's going to be of course not the same, of course Trump would be leading there.

Here, let me help you, go to google, type in "2024 election odds" and check the websites there, you will see that Kamala is ahead, in all of them. Because when it comes to their own money, casinos would like to bet on the winner, and just like how they are not going to make Real Madrid have 3.20 odds against Getafe, they are not going to have Kamala behind Trump neither.

[bbc.reporter]

Was that based on bookies? I think if we talk about bookies it should be on the betting lines that are available online.

If you look at here https://www.oddschecker.com/us/politics/us-politics
Odds are almost 50-50, and that indicates that this could be a close fight between the two.

What you shared are some kind of a poll, not something from bookies or oddsmaker.

Agreed. True odds are evenly split 50:50 between them at the moment and all of those polls are totally biased towards either side thanks to which they are useless. Swing states matter far more than all of these confusing polls.

Both Trump and Harris still have some more time to tip the scales in their favor before the elections. Let's see what happens.

I very much agree on the split 50:50, however, there are arguments that the polls are being manipulated more by the Democrats because they are in power and it is very much certain that if a political party is in power, they certainly control more of the political machinery in their country.

Also, the mainstream media is clearly biased and they clearly have a better relationship with Kamala Harris. This is very clear and observable on how the mainstream news media outlets publish headlines about Trump.

[TravelMug]

Was that based on bookies? I think if we talk about bookies it should be on the betting lines that are available online.

If you look at here https://www.oddschecker.com/us/politics/us-politics
Odds are almost 50-50, and that indicates that this could be a close fight between the two.

What you shared are some kind of a poll, not something from bookies or oddsmaker.

Agreed. True odds are evenly split 50:50 between them at the moment and all of those polls are totally biased towards either side thanks to which they are useless. Swing states matter far more than all of these confusing polls.

Both Trump and Harris still have some more time to tip the scales in their favor before the elections. Let's see what happens.

I very much agree on the split 50:50, however, there are arguments that the polls are being manipulated more by the Democrats because they are in power and it is very much certain that if a political party is in power, they certainly control more of the political machinery in their country.

Also, the mainstream media is clearly biased and they clearly have a better relationship with Kamala Harris. This is very clear and observable on how the mainstream news media outlets publish headlines about Trump.

And there are even reports that even social media are in the ploy to show that Kamala Harris is now leading in the poll, with at least 2-3 points ahead. But it's very much hard to think that Trump was leading, then suddenly Kamala has a big surge and was able to wrestle the lead from Trump.

Nevertheless, even if the mainstream media is biased, everything is still up to the voters themselves, just like what they did on Hillary in 2016. Clinton was leading along the way until Trump supporters made in big, specially in swing states.

[Haunebu]

I very much agree on the split 50:50, however, there are arguments that the polls are being manipulated more by the Democrats because they are in power and it is very much certain that if a political party is in power, they certainly control more of the political machinery in their country.

I agree about the mainstream media being somewhat biased towards the Democrats, but this was expected. However, some polls are being manipulated by Republican supporters too(Musk etc) which is why both sides are doing it.

Also, the mainstream media is clearly biased and they clearly have a better relationship with Kamala Harris. This is very clear and observable on how the mainstream news media outlets publish headlines about Trump.

They do have a better relationship with Harris, but this doesn't mean that they are ignoring Trump completely. If that were the case, his crazy photo during the assassination attempt wouldn't have been mass circulated.

[satscraper]

The value ^{(which is four times as much as Trump)} raised by Harris' main fundraising group  shows that Americans  take choice of wisdom rather than chavtastic ignorance and stupidity. I'm not surprised of this as Americans were always been pragmatic, knowing that Trump would lead them to abyss ^{(which has been dug by   his buddy war criminal Putin)} , they ax him.

[Fiatless]

The value ^{(which is four times as much as Trump)} raised by Harris' main fundraising group  shows that Americans  take choice of wisdom rather than chavtastic ignorance and stupidity. I'm not surprised of this as Americans were always been pragmatic, knowing that Trump would lead them to abyss, they ax him.

What? Kamala Harris raised $204 million while the big boss just got $48 million, that's a high gap. Raising more money during the campaign might not show that Harris will win the election, but it proves that her acceptance is increasing among voters. Having more money can also make campaigns more organized and reach more people.

Trump's status as a convicted felon is affecting his campaign and their ability to raise funds. I also think he chose the wrong vice president candidate. Meanwhile, Harris has the backing of the incumbent, and it was reported that the choice of Gov. Tim Walz as her vice president led to an increase in donations.

A poll showed that 60% of Democrats say they are enthusiastic about the pick, and almost all are at least satisfied. But there is growing number of Republicans who feel that picking JD Vance was wrong.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/walz-enthusiasm-democrats-kamala-harris-2024-vp-pick/

[satscraper]

The value ^{(which is four times as much as Trump)} raised by Harris' main fundraising group  shows that Americans  take choice of wisdom rather than chavtastic ignorance and stupidity. I'm not surprised of this as Americans were always been pragmatic, knowing that Trump would lead them to abyss, they ax him.

, but it proves that her acceptance is increasing among voters.

You are right . And  it is worthy of note that the the large amount of donations is from the small donors ^{($20, 10 or even $5 )} which evidences of the  huge amount of her supporters.  Trum's' money is largely in the form of big checks endorsed by very rich people who wanna destroy democracy in America and make this state autocratic ^{(surprisingly for me Elon Musk is among those numskulls)}.

Thus, I would bet on Harris.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I don't see Kamala winning the election. If she was really strong, like the media is trying to label

The polls from the people are making the media look that this is a close battle. I'm not aware of how things go there in the US and I'm only basing my thoughts about what's shown by the media through their numbers.

In the bookies, it's Kamala who's the front liner and Trump is on the second. Still, the decision will be from the majority of each state then.

Seeing the events as they have been happening, I would say that Kamala has no opportunity whatsoever, and it is not because I am a supporter of Trump, because I am not American, but when he speaks he has so much concept that Kamala, no matter how political she is, does not move masses or cause emotions like Trump does. I see Trump much better prepared than her, of course that is my personal perception, Trump makes mistakes like every human being, but to lead your country it is better to have an experienced manager than a politician who says or promises goals that are told to them by a government that has not done well.

[o48o]

Seeing the events as they have been happening, I would say that Kamala has no opportunity whatsoever, and it is not because I am a supporter of Trump, because I am not American, but when he speaks he has so much concept that Kamala, no matter how political she is, does not move masses or cause emotions like Trump does. I see Trump much better prepared than her, of course that is my personal perception, Trump makes mistakes like every human being, but to lead your country it is better to have an experienced manager than a politician who says or promises goals that are told to them by a government that has not done well.

Good luck with your bet, but apparently we have been watching different events and different crowd reactions. And i don't know what those concepts you are talking about that Kamala is lacking. I admit that she doesn't have a position about great, late Hannibal Lecter like trump, and she doesn't have obsession about crowd sizes. She also don't do incoherent rants, and she actually knows what she is talking about.

And about that experience: trump has declared bankruptcy 6 times, and notoriously doesn't pay his bills, so i don't get how that's a good cv for a manager. Also, i find it weird to imply that it's bad that Kamala worked for her government, as that's literally something government officials and Presidents should do. They should work for the country, not using their influence as president to make $160 million for themselves from their international businesses during their presidency like last president.

People tend to see trough that behavior, and they care about things like abortion rights. I admit that it's probably going to be close race, and i would belive casino odds as they have no reason to fake them.

But saying she doesn't have opportunity based on personal perception isn't an objective view by definition. Especially these days when people are polarized and living in smaller and smaller bubbles that algorithms just amplify and we can't really trust that our newsfeed would do anything other then confirm our views with newsfeeds that are tailored for us.

[Haunebu]

Seeing the events as they have been happening, I would say that Kamala has no opportunity whatsoever, and it is not because I am a supporter of Trump, because I am not American, but when he speaks he has so much concept that Kamala, no matter how political she is, does not move masses or cause emotions like Trump does. I see Trump much better prepared than her, of course that is my personal perception, Trump makes mistakes like every human being, but to lead your country it is better to have an experienced manager than a politician who says or promises goals that are told to them by a government that has not done well.

Not a Trump supporter? That's tough to believe. Anyway, you clearly don't know much about politics. If you did, you would have known about Harris's cash advantage against Trump and it's 50:50 between them currently.

Trump got another opportunity primarily because his previous opponent(Biden) performed just as worse as him, but that's not the case anymore thanks to Harris taking over. Do your research.

[nelson4lov]

Not a Trump supporter? That's tough to believe. Anyway, you are clearly don't know much about politics. If you did, you would have known about Harris's cash advantage against Trump and it's 50:50 between them currently.

Trump got another opportunity primarily because his previous opponent(Biden) performed just as worse as him, but that's not the case anymore thanks to Harris taking over. Do your research.

Harris is up there because of the backing she is getting. Imagine getting massive backing and PR from the Obamas as much as other prominent folks. Despite all indicators pointing to a Kamala Harris win, I'm still sticking with Trump on this one. Particularly because of Bitcoin and Crypto. Joe Biden led administration of which Kamala is a part of fought crypto as hard as they could — ^{with the exception of BTC & ETH ETF approvals}. I fear it might get even worse with a Harris win.

Btw, why do you think Kamala Harris administration will be better? If she couldn't make impact under Biden as VP, I don't think there's much she would do if she wins POTUS.

[bitgolden]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

If anyone wants to wonder, when you check a certain thing, like "no toss up" then yeah Trump may look ahead, but when you look at the polls themselves then you will realize that it is not really that easy to handle any of this because Kamala is leading in all polls. And don't get me wrong, I do not trust polls, I am not saying that Kamala is leading, they ask like a few thousand people and then try to make out what would happen in elections, months and months before the day comes, that is absolutely no way of trying to predict and it's totally useless so I do not trust that at all.

I just wanted to point out that it's quite normal that we end up with something fair, because showing Trump leading, when he is not, is unfair. I think Kamala has to work really hard on the swing states because Georgia and Nevada looks quite solid Trump, probably will lose those, so she needs to get the others for sure, if she can't then she loses without a doubt, not even close.