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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2010639 times)
cypherdoc
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June 15, 2015, 09:54:52 PM
 #26521

the drama continues on:

https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin.org/pull/894

there's that name Saivann again.  he was involved in the original PressCenter.org debate.
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sickpig
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June 15, 2015, 10:08:08 PM
 #26522

Mike Hearn's infallible logic:

http://sourceforge.net/p/bitcoin/mailman/message/34206292/

bottomline is you skeptics can disrespect him all day long but the smart among us will listen and think about the content of what he says.

Quite lengthy reply from Adam:

http://sourceforge.net/p/bitcoin/mailman/message/34208939/

worth reding, though.

Remember this quote by Adam when the time comes that they make their proposal to change the Bitcoin protocol to enable LN and SCs.
Quote
As you can probably tell I think a unilateral fork without wide-scale consensus from the technical and business communities is a deeply inadvisable.

The bar to add LN and SC enabling protocol changes is wide-scale consensus. If a small number of participants disagree, it doesn't happen by their own logic. Additionally these protocol changes significantly change what Bitcoin fundamentally is much more than a simple 20MB blocksize c

This is the exact reason why I linked Adam's reply: quote for posterity the evaluation criteria used by opponents to gavin's block size increase proposal.

That said, if memory serves the new opcode needed by sc could be introduced by a soft-fork. Though I have to agree that merged mined side chains would introduce a significant modification of miners economic incentives.

One last thing, I think that at least Adam is not opposed to the increase per se, in fact he did say that LN and SC need a modification in the way max block size limit is handled (he talks about burst period), he even praise jgarzik bip 100 on the basis of the "slow" variation entangled in the proposal.

edit: fix typo

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
tvbcof
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June 15, 2015, 10:24:22 PM
 #26523


... But your situation is not typical, and you can always purchase a virtual machine for very little if you really wanted a node.

I've always lived by the motto "if it's not worth doing right, it's not worth doing."  The only machine I could have some degree of confidence in is bare metal in certain datacenters.  The cost of housing alone is significant and network connectivity is a lot beyond that.  Not to mention the cost and hassle of flying to a jurisdiction where I might have some confidence in the durability of the solution in a failure mode scenario that I (and the system I'm supporting) would be guarding against.  These were the standards I used when I was being paid for my services.


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June 15, 2015, 10:37:30 PM
 #26524

Someone needs to change the title of this thread to.

Gold up BTC collapsing
Peter R
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June 15, 2015, 11:03:04 PM
 #26525

the drama continues on:

https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin.org/pull/894

there's that name Saivann again.  he was involved in the original PressCenter.org debate.

This is getting bizarre…that post has a strange feel, with hints of desperation, like someone is grasping at authority that's slipping through their fingers.  This type of behaviour will only serve to disenfranchise them further, as power migrates to MIT, CoinCenter, and hopefully several new initiatives at university research labs. 

I think I've heard all the arguments, but I still cannot understand the opposition to increasing the blocksize.

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cypherdoc
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June 15, 2015, 11:12:56 PM
 #26526

the drama continues on:

https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin.org/pull/894

there's that name Saivann again.  he was involved in the original PressCenter.org debate.

This is getting bizarre…that post has a strange feel, with hints of desperation, like someone is grasping at authority that's slipping through their fingers.  This type of behaviour will only serve to disenfranchise them further, as power migrates to MIT, CoinCenter, and hopefully several new initiatives at university research labs.  

I think I've heard all the arguments, but I still cannot understand the opposition to increasing the blocksize.

theymos is a strange character that has control of all our media outlets; BCT, Reddit, & apparently Bitcoin.org.

i admired him greatly back in the day b/c he helped me understand Bitcoin thru several pm's and a couple of Skype audio conversations.  at first, he was very hesitant to actually talk to me despite my pleadings that i learn more efficiently with the ability to quickly back and forth from conversation vs typing.  he told me he was very uncomfortable talking even tho i agreed to just the audio on Skype; no video (a concession i made to assuage his awkward social concerns).  he said he types faster than he talks.  he wasn't kidding.  the only way i got him to audio was to pay him 4BTC.  expensive in retrospect but worth it for the knowledge.  he WAS socially awkward and i barely got my money's worth given the difficulty of the communication.  

i've been very disappointed ever since in his allowing forum moderators to essentially run wild around here deleting posts they don't like.  and then with the forum donations for a new site.  i'm certainly not alone.

and now this.  i really think it's a power play by the devs to keep control.  marcus said it flat out.  they want control.
TPTB_need_war
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June 15, 2015, 11:29:29 PM
 #26527

I wish Bitcoin used almost no bandwidth as well... but you can't have your cake and eat it too.

Yes you can.

Peter R
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June 15, 2015, 11:43:21 PM
 #26528

...
and now this.  i really think it's a power play by the devs to keep control.  marcus said it flat out.  they want control.

This reminds me of something my IRAP ITA said: "Do you want to be rich, or do you want to be king?  Because you can't be both."

On that note, here's an interesting graph that shows that founders usually do finacially better when they relinquish some control in order to allow the company to grow.  I imagine the same dynamic will play out in bitcoin, and that the early devs are suffering from a version of the "rich-vs-king" dilemma.  




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tvbcof
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June 16, 2015, 02:03:15 AM
 #26529


theymos is a strange character that has control of all our media outlets; BCT, Reddit, & apparently Bitcoin.org.

theymos was one of the very few who saw what a train-wreck TBF was likely to be when Gavin floated the idea and spoke up about it.  I'll let you guess who another one of these lonely voices might have been.

i admired him greatly back in the day b/c he helped me understand Bitcoin thru several pm's and a couple of Skype audio conversations. ...

Questionable.


i've been very disappointed ever since in his allowing forum moderators to essentially run wild around here deleting posts they don't like.  and then with the forum donations for a new site.  i'm certainly not alone.

I've been pleasantly surprised at the intolerance for over-moderation that theymos has displayed.  I can think of almost nothing I've seen deleted and moderators who've tried to do so for overtly political reasons seem to have taken a hike.  Whether on theymos's orders or not I don't know.

I've ribbed they guy over the years for allowing fairly obvious scammers to have a voice but at the end of the day it is in keeping with running a very free platform and I appreciate that.  It sucks to see people taken by scammers, but this platform allows them to come back and inform others which is a very valuable educational experience for everyone and a lesson that everyone who putters around with Bitcoin needs to learn by one method or another.


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June 16, 2015, 02:11:20 AM
 #26530

theymos was one of the very few who saw what a train-wreck TBF was likely to be when Gavin floated the idea and spoke up about it.  I'll let you guess who another one of these lonely voices might have been.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=113400.msg1227012#msg1227012

That post also serves as proof that I wasn't singling out Blockstream when I asked them the same question about potential conflicts of interest.
chriswilmer
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June 16, 2015, 02:16:30 AM
 #26531

I think I've heard all the arguments, but I still cannot understand the opposition to increasing the blocksize.

Glad I am not the only one!

You'd think this level of hand-wringing about a hard fork would be reserved for changing the 21 million bitcoin limit or something. In 10 years I think this discussion about whether to have 1 MB blocks or 20 MB blocks will sound really strange in our TB-flash-drive streaming-hd-virtual-reality world.
marcus_of_augustus
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June 16, 2015, 02:45:11 AM
 #26532

Ok, the derpiness is plumbing new depths of sadness, i think it might be time to check out of the gold collapse and I have some other projects I'd like to work on ... so long and thanx for all the fish sn Wink

bitcoin will scale eventually, patience grasshoppers.

cypherdoc
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June 16, 2015, 03:39:03 AM
 #26533

Ok, the derpiness is plumbing new depths of sadness, i think it might be time to check out of the gold collapse and I have some other projects I'd like to work on ... so long and thanx for all the fish sn Wink

bitcoin will scale eventually, patience grasshoppers.

Why do people keep saying they are leaving this thread then always come right back? Maybe I can help:

marcus, don't let the door hit you on the way out.
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June 16, 2015, 03:44:42 AM
 #26534

...in fact, both SC and LN _strongly_ prefer the biggest blocksize the network can handle.  What they can't tolerate, however, is Bitcoin being very centralized-- and I don't think your own interests can tolerate that either (assuming you still own some Bitcoin).

reddit post
Quote
The experience we have says there will not likely be a dire emergency. We also have reason to believe, from the prior accidental quasi-hardfork, that the mining portion of the network can be updated within a day or two during an actual emergency. A straight-forward blocksize bump also has the benefit of being completely compatible with existing SPV clients (they can't see the blocksize). If there really were a dire situation where it was larger blocks or doom-- I'm confident that larger blocks could be deployed quickly without much trouble; and in that kind of situation: consensus would be easy. No matter how concerned people are about larger sizes, if the choice is really larger or a useless network, the former is preferable to everyone. There is also plenty of room for other creativity, as we saw before in 2013, should the need arise, but it can be hard to predict in advance.

(my emphasis)

Greg is giving me serious cognitive dissonance with these posts.
He is very concerned about the trend to centralization and yet can countenance a quick fork if necessary.

The most harmless hard fork is one which is prepared so far in advance that all software instances are upgraded before it takes effect. Something which was almost achievable if it had been scheduled in early 2013 with the target date about 2 years ahead. That is what Bitcoin needed.

Today, the time for this luxury is gone and about 6000 nodes exist (which accept connections). The worst scenario after a quick fork is 3000 left on each side, with the best scenario somewhere between 3000 and 6000 on the majority side, say 4500 nodes upgrading. The remainder either switching off or flailing away on a chain with a ridiculous difficulty. What a hammer-blow towards the furnace of centralization!

In my opinion, the odds of a dire situation after the 1MB is hit, needing a quick fork, is about 99%. This not an unreasonable interpretation of the separate findings of David Hudson and Statoshi. Even if Greg thinks the odds of needing a fast fork is more like 10% or 20% (otherwise why describe it in the manner above) then this is surely an unacceptable risk.

Meanwhile, Adam has just given us a Hallelujah moment:

Quote
A hard-fork takes a long period of time to deploy due to the non-upgrade risk, people are working on things in the mean-time.
There can be a case for some increase to create some breathing room to work on scaling and decentralising tech, I just mean to say that if we do it in isolation, we're not focussing on the big picture.
Progress at last, buying time to smoothly scale the MC, as well as buying time for SC and LN. FFS! How can this be contentious to SC and LN supporters?

Lastly.
Perhaps Peter R can put this one to bed:

Adam claims that the network overhead in scaling Bitcoin is O(n^2), where n=transactions
Mike counters that it is O(nm), where m=nodes

The latter makes more sense to me, and further, that m is not as significant as it appears because it is highly parallelized.

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June 16, 2015, 04:23:24 AM
 #26535

Adam claims that the network overhead in scaling Bitcoin is O(n^2), where n=transactions
Mike counters that it is O(nm), where m=nodes

The latter makes more sense to me, and further, that m is not as significant as it appears because it is highly parallelized.

The way I see it, if m nodes need to be made aware of n transactions, then the network overhead for bandwidth is O(nm).  

If we assume that the number of nodes is linearly proportional to the number of transactions, then m = kn and the network overhead is O(n2).  But as you mentioned, m is probably not this significant.  In fact, for the last several years m has gone down as n has gone up, so the network overhead empirically is more like O(n0.7) (i.e., better than linear).  

Interesting question: right now the Bitcoin network processes about 1 transaction per second while the Visa network processes about 2000.  Right now there are about 6,000 full nodes. If Bitcoin grew to reach Visa's level of transactions per second (2000X growth), would we expect the number of full nodes to grow from 6,000 to 12,000,000?

The other thing I don't understand is why people focus on the network overhead rather than the overhead to run a single node.  As far as I can see, this should always be roughly O(n).  

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June 16, 2015, 04:39:20 AM
 #26536

The other thing I don't understand is why people focus on the network overhead rather than the overhead to run a single node.  As far as I can see, this should always be roughly O(n).  

Its hard to scare people when you talk about O(n) costs per node.
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June 16, 2015, 04:45:22 AM
 #26537

Adam claims that the network overhead in scaling Bitcoin is O(n^2), where n=transactions
Mike counters that it is O(nm), where m=nodes

The latter makes more sense to me, and further, that m is not as significant as it appears because it is highly parallelized.

The way I see it, if m nodes need to be made aware of n transactions, then the network overhead for bandwidth is O(nm).  

If we assume that the number of nodes is linearly proportional to the number of transactions, then m = kn and the network overhead is O(n2).  But as you mentioned, m is probably not this significant.  In fact, for the last several years m has gone down as n has gone up, so the network overhead empirically is more like O(n0.7) (i.e., better than linear).  

Interesting question: right now the Bitcoin network processes about 1 transaction per second while the Visa network processor about 2000.  Right now there are about 6,000 full nodes. If Bitcoin grew to reach Visa's level of transactions per second (2000X growth), would we expect the number of full nodes to grow from 6,000 to 12,000,000?

The other thing I don't understand is why people focus on the network overhead rather than the overhead to run a single node.  As far as I can see, this should always be roughly O(n).  


Thanks Peter, this helps.
We can also think of it as O(2n) because of the re-broadcasting, which IBLT would do a lot to mitigate, especially as the re-broadcast is the time critical component, and the capacity of the network in a true O(n) state is already more like 300 tps than 3 tps.

I don't think the full node count would scale as far as 12m in the growth example above, but payment channels for node services would at least reverse the decline even when it becomes necessary to support that loading.

The other thing I don't understand is why people focus on the network overhead rather than the overhead to run a single node.  As far as I can see, this should always be roughly O(n).  

Its hard to scare people when you talk about O(n) costs per node.

Absolutely!

Peter R
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June 16, 2015, 05:27:51 AM
 #26538

I don't think the full node count would scale as far as 12m in the growth example above, but payment channels for node services would at least reverse the decline even when it becomes necessary to support that loading.

I agree.  

I've been thinking a lot about full node count lately, and I could also imagine a future where node count continues to decline but network decentralization actually improves.  

Let's imagine a distant future where:

  - Every major research university operates 1 full node on average (there's 108 in the US, 15 in Canada, and let's assume 150 elsewhere). That makes about 280 nodes.  

  - Every major bitcoin company in this "bitcoin future" and every mining pool operates a full node.  Assume another 280 nodes.  

  - Various branches of governments in most countries run a few nodes.  Assume 190 countries x 2 nodes = 380 nodes.

  - And a bunch of wealthy bitcoiners operate their own nodes.  Assume another 300 or so.
 
This gives a total of only ~1,240 nodes, but I think such a configuration would be more decentralized than the current state of the network.  

I'm not suggesting that this will actually happen, just pointing out that the network doesn't necessarily need hundreds of thousands of nodes.  

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Peter R
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June 16, 2015, 06:00:48 AM
 #26539

All of these groups I identified would also be fairly insensitive to the cost of running a node.

- the academics will apply for grants to operate their nodes so they can perform research

- the businesses and miners will run nodes as a cost of doing business

- the governments will run nodes for law enforcement, surveillance, and other purposes.

- the power users will run nodes because they want to.

Would it really be so bad if the far future looked like this?  




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June 16, 2015, 06:20:47 AM
 #26540

All of these groups I identified would also be fairly insensitive to the cost of running a node.

- the academics will apply for grants to operate their nodes so they can perform research

- the businesses and miners will run nodes as a cost of doing business

- the governments will run nodes for law enforcement, surveillance, and other purposes.

- the power users will run nodes because they want to.

Would it really be so bad if the far future looked like this?  





Maybe not that bad, and if general technology companies are considered separate from Bitcoin-focused businesses, then perhaps another 155 could be added for them, as per the MSCI World Index (IT).
https://www.msci.com/resources/factsheets/index_fact_sheet/msci-world-information-technology-index-usd-net.pdf

It is easy to imagine that even non-Bitcoin tech companies would want to run at least one node to have a hook into a real-world blockchain instance..

Microsoft supports Bitcoin XT!  Grin



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