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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1808725 times)
cypherdoc
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July 26, 2015, 06:28:15 AM
 #29341

Looks like we have a rate rise by the fed on tap this year. Should start to get priced in on monday

Yeah, no.  QE4?  Yep.

I'm expecting both, with unlimited Keynesian hubris on the side.
This is a confidence game, so with sufficiently disorganized alternatives, the Fed may be bold and anyway they are not afraid of Bitcoin... at all.

Indeed. And for those that are still counting it will be QE5 next.
http://useconomy.about.com/od/glossary/g/Quantitative-Easing.htm

QE4 was a re-bailout of the Treasury market for new issuance plus a much needed cash infusion for the primary dealers (banks)
QE3 was a re-bailout of the MBS investors (re-bailout of Fannie & Freddie) and banks
QE2 was a bailout of the Treasury market, FDIC, plus domestic and foreign banks
QE1 was a bailout of the MBS investors (bailout of Fannie & Freddie) and the banks
TARP was a bailout of the merchant banks (Citi, Squid etc) plus AIG, car-makers and (why not?) foreign banks

the time to have raised rates was during the towering stock market advance of the last few years before what appears to have been the peak on May 19, 2015.  now that we have a Dow Theory non-confirmation on the board which looks to confirm the latter half of this year, it would be highly unlikely they raise interest rates into the the teeth of that as that would only accelerate an ongoing plunge.

it will be interesting to see how they handle this one but i doubt it will include a raise in rates.

Market performance being that mysterious third mandate of the dual mandate.

The way they behave, you'd think it's all about  the stock market.
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tabnloz
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July 26, 2015, 06:46:48 AM
 #29342

Looks like we have a rate rise by the fed on tap this year. Should start to get priced in on monday

Yeah, no.  QE4?  Yep.
So you think the internal report that alluded to a rate rise this year accidentily published by the fed on their website was smoke and mirrors?

maybe that leak glitch was a subtle form of forward guidance.

interesting that rumblings of an EM crash have since intensified - the debt racked up by overseas entities priced in dollars is over $5T according to BIS (iirc)
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July 26, 2015, 06:52:01 AM
 #29343

interesting that rumblings of an EM crash have since intensified - the debt racked up by overseas entities priced in dollars is over $5T according to BIS (iirc)

Yup.

May be it's just USD is currently being pumped so that everything else goes down compared to USD ?
Can it be that IMF and the Fed decided to sell all of it's gold, silver and other reserves to pump USD and Dow ?

If you had been reading Martin Armstrong's blog and my posts here, you'd have known for over 2 years that the dollar would becoming stronger because all the QE sent out into the world as carry trade of the ZIRP is going come rushing back to the USA (leaving the rest of the world in a short position in dollars bankrupting the emerging markets) as it will be safe haven as the rest of the world collapses. This would cause the USA to raise interest rates, thus compounding the problem for all nations except the USA. The target date was Oct 2015. Right on time...

Zarathustra
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July 26, 2015, 07:43:27 AM
 #29344

interesting that rumblings of an EM crash have since intensified - the debt racked up by overseas entities priced in dollars is over $5T according to BIS (iirc)

Yup.

May be it's just USD is currently being pumped so that everything else goes down compared to USD ?
Can it be that IMF and the Fed decided to sell all of it's gold, silver and other reserves to pump USD and Dow ?

If you had been reading Martin Armstrong's blog and my posts here, you'd have known for over 2 years that the dollar would becoming stronger because all the QE sent out into the world as carry trade of the ZIRP is going come rushing back to the USA (leaving the rest of the world in a short position in dollars bankrupting the emerging markets) as it will be safe haven as the rest of the world collapses. This would cause the USA to raise interest rates, thus compounding the problem for all nations except the USA. The target date was Oct 2015. Right on time...

Armstrong will be wrong again. Nothing special will happen Oct 2015.

"Staat nenne ich's, wo alle Gifttrinker sind, Gute und Schlimme: Staat, wo alle sich selber verlieren, Gute und Schlimme:
Staat, wo der langsame Selbstmord aller – »das Leben« heisst."
molecular
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July 26, 2015, 08:10:44 AM
 #29345

Small blocks equal small minds.

lol, small blocks equal smart minds.   (contrary big and stupid)

Small blocks, small dicks.


Does your mom know you're staying up late and sneaking on to her laptop just to act like a jackass?

Here son, have a clue:

Quote
The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

Oh yeah? So adding complicated stuff like sidechains and lightning network is making bitcoin code smaller?

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
pinky
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July 26, 2015, 08:20:45 AM
 #29346


Armstrong will be wrong again. Nothing special will happen Oct 2015.

Even Armstrong said this. Don't expect some market to crash on that day, but it will be important turning point that indicates years of misery ahead (countries going bankrupt, companies going bankrupt, more civil unrests, wars, migrations, viruses).
Zarathustra
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July 26, 2015, 08:55:05 AM
 #29347


Armstrong will be wrong again. Nothing special will happen Oct 2015.

Even Armstrong said this. Don't expect some market to crash on that day, but it will be important turning point that indicates years of misery ahead (countries going bankrupt, companies going bankrupt, more civil unrests, wars, migrations, viruses).

Not really. Only a little bit of misery ahead; and then, acccording to his model: Roaring Twenties reloaded:

http://i1.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/ecconf-maa-clr.jpg?resize=584%2C449

"Staat nenne ich's, wo alle Gifttrinker sind, Gute und Schlimme: Staat, wo alle sich selber verlieren, Gute und Schlimme:
Staat, wo der langsame Selbstmord aller – »das Leben« heisst."
iCEBREAKER
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Crypto is the separation of Power and State.


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July 26, 2015, 09:36:25 AM
 #29348

Quote
The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

So adding complicated stuff like sidechains and lightning network is making bitcoin code smaller?


No, and those features should be fought just like any others.  The adversarial process is valuable in assuring they do not compromise security or reliability.

Fighting features doesn't mean never accepting them no matter what.

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
smooth
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July 26, 2015, 09:41:02 AM
 #29349

Small blocks equal small minds.

lol, small blocks equal smart minds.   (contrary big and stupid)

Small blocks, small dicks.


Does your mom know you're staying up late and sneaking on to her laptop just to act like a jackass?

Here son, have a clue:

Quote
The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

Oh yeah? So adding complicated stuff like sidechains and lightning network is making bitcoin code smaller?

To the extent those build on top of Bitcoin they aren't adding features to it or making the the core code bigger. If they require changes to the core code or adding new features to it, that's a different matter that needs to be considered carefully.
smooth
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July 26, 2015, 09:44:06 AM
 #29350

Looks like we have a rate rise by the fed on tap this year. Should start to get priced in on monday

Yeah, no.  QE4?  Yep.

I'm expecting both, with unlimited Keynesian hubris on the side.
This is a confidence game, so with sufficiently disorganized alternatives, the Fed may be bold and anyway they are not afraid of Bitcoin... at all.

Indeed. And for those that are still counting it will be QE5 next.
http://useconomy.about.com/od/glossary/g/Quantitative-Easing.htm

QE4 was a re-bailout of the Treasury market for new issuance plus a much needed cash infusion for the primary dealers (banks)
QE3 was a re-bailout of the MBS investors (re-bailout of Fannie & Freddie) and banks
QE2 was a bailout of the Treasury market, FDIC, plus domestic and foreign banks
QE1 was a bailout of the MBS investors (bailout of Fannie & Freddie) and the banks
TARP was a bailout of the merchant banks (Citi, Squid etc) plus AIG, car-makers and (why not?) foreign banks

the time to have raised rates was during the towering stock market advance of the last few years before what appears to have been the peak on May 19, 2015.  now that we have a Dow Theory non-confirmation on the board which looks to confirm the latter half of this year, it would be highly unlikely they raise interest rates into the the teeth of that as that would only accelerate an ongoing plunge.

it will be interesting to see how they handle this one but i doubt it will include a raise in rates.

I kind of agree with solex that the medicine (rate increase, even if symbolic, just so they can say they did) will come with a spoonful of sugar (QE of some sort, or something similar) to avoid crushing the markets.

But I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see rate increases continually delayed either. It's the US version of extend and pretend.


pinky
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July 26, 2015, 10:28:11 AM
 #29351


Armstrong will be wrong again. Nothing special will happen Oct 2015.

Even Armstrong said this. Don't expect some market to crash on that day, but it will be important turning point that indicates years of misery ahead (countries going bankrupt, companies going bankrupt, more civil unrests, wars, migrations, viruses).

Not really. Only a little bit of misery ahead; and then, acccording to his model: Roaring Twenties reloaded:

http://i1.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/ecconf-maa-clr.jpg?resize=584%2C449

Well I guess it depends where you live, since every country/region has it's own cycle. There are multiple cycles that converge this time and it will be scary.

For example look at the Middle East & North Africa - total chaos and destruction in the past years. They are effectively in the Dark Ages and will stay there for decades.

Then you can look at EU where around 50% of the economy is governments spending (debt + taxation). Debt in most EURO countries is at 100% of GDP or more. Taxation is very high - in some countries 50% of you paycheck goes directly to your government + VAT is at 20-30%. Can you imagine how even small economic downturn can tear apart thin social justice bullshit when you are starving or cannot pay your bills. Remember that EURO countries cannot manage their level of debts via inflation as they used to do with their own currencies.
sgbett
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July 26, 2015, 10:34:22 AM
 #29352

Small blocks equal small minds.

lol, small blocks equal smart minds.   (contrary big and stupid)

Small blocks, small dicks.


Does your mom know you're staying up late and sneaking on to her laptop just to act like a jackass?

Here son, have a clue:

Quote
The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

Oh yeah? So adding complicated stuff like sidechains and lightning network is making bitcoin code smaller?

To the extent those build on top of Bitcoin they aren't adding features to it or making the the core code bigger. If they require changes to the core code or adding new features to it, that's a different matter that needs to be considered carefully.

But if the claim is that sidechains are the 'solution' to the 'problem'. Then you are saying they are part of bitcoin [the ecosystem] whether they are part of core or not.

Increasing block size does not add features *and* it 'solves' the 'problem'. Without introducing any other layers of complexity, or attempting to artificially manipulate the fee economy that is growing organically just as it was always intended.

What frightens me is that the whole thing seems to have turned into a pissing contest.

The fee market isn't a problem right now, the block size is. So why are people trying to pre-emptively fix the fee market in an ass backwards way to address the block size problem.

Only 2 nodes here but as soon as we get an XT block size fork I'm in. I sincerely hope that it doesn't come to that though, and the opposing core devs see sense and pull one of the recent BIPS (preferably the 8 meg one, but the 2 would do) straight to core. A complicit hard for will go over much more smoothly I feel.

http://haschinabannedbitcoin.com
Full Node: http://46.51.193.129 (BU)
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
smooth
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July 26, 2015, 10:40:14 AM
 #29353

Small blocks equal small minds.

lol, small blocks equal smart minds.   (contrary big and stupid)

Small blocks, small dicks.


Does your mom know you're staying up late and sneaking on to her laptop just to act like a jackass?

Here son, have a clue:

Quote
The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

Oh yeah? So adding complicated stuff like sidechains and lightning network is making bitcoin code smaller?

To the extent those build on top of Bitcoin they aren't adding features to it or making the the core code bigger. If they require changes to the core code or adding new features to it, that's a different matter that needs to be considered carefully.

But if the claim is that sidechains are the 'solution' to the 'problem'. Then you are saying they are part of bitcoin [the ecosystem] whether they are part of core or not.

Reread the original quote. The way to make software small is to have components there are small. That doesn't mean you can't many other components. Ultimately they're just applications on top of the core.

Quote
Increasing block size does not add features *and* it 'solves' the 'problem'. Without introducing any other layers of complexity, or attempting to artificially manipulate the fee economy that is growing organically just as it was always intended.

On the surface that would be true, and it is mostly true in reality for small increases. But when big increases are introduced that creates a requirement for more complexity to cope with massive scaling and deal with the sheer volume of data and potentially more attack vectors. Algorithms and implementations (and deployments) that just work fine with 1 MB blocks won't necessarily work with blocks many times that size (or especially many, many times that size).

I don't really have a dog in this fight. I think the block size should be raised, but only modestly. From a software design point of view I do think that a simple core (that lacks requirements for massive scaling) along with independent applications is a "work smarter not harder" way to go. That's one reason I would limit the increases to a modest size.

But at the same time I don't think we know how well sidechains (which I'm deeply skeptical about) or lightning network (which I'm less skeptical about) will work out in actual practice. So it may turn out that massively increasing the block size (and coping with the scaling challenges of that) is indeed the way to go. But let's be cautious and try smarter approaches before we just throw the bigger hammer at it.
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July 26, 2015, 12:00:33 PM
 #29354

Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
Zarathustra
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July 26, 2015, 12:36:40 PM
 #29355


Armstrong will be wrong again. Nothing special will happen Oct 2015.

Even Armstrong said this. Don't expect some market to crash on that day, but it will be important turning point that indicates years of misery ahead (countries going bankrupt, companies going bankrupt, more civil unrests, wars, migrations, viruses).

Not really. Only a little bit of misery ahead; and then, acccording to his model: Roaring Twenties reloaded:

http://i1.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/ecconf-maa-clr.jpg?resize=584%2C449

Well I guess it depends where you live, since every country/region has it's own cycle. There are multiple cycles that converge this time and it will be scary.

For example look at the Middle East & North Africa - total chaos and destruction in the past years. They are effectively in the Dark Ages and will stay there for decades.

Then you can look at EU where around 50% of the economy is governments spending (debt + taxation). Debt in most EURO countries is at 100% of GDP or more. Taxation is very high - in some countries 50% of you paycheck goes directly to your government + VAT is at 20-30%. Can you imagine how even small economic downturn can tear apart thin social justice bullshit when you are starving or cannot pay your bills. Remember that EURO countries cannot manage their level of debts via inflation as they used to do with their own currencies.

EURO countries as a whole have not as much government debt and deficit as Japan and the US. Current account looks also much better than in the US.

"Staat nenne ich's, wo alle Gifttrinker sind, Gute und Schlimme: Staat, wo alle sich selber verlieren, Gute und Schlimme:
Staat, wo der langsame Selbstmord aller – »das Leben« heisst."
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July 26, 2015, 02:12:50 PM
 #29356

And now icebreaker is quoting a guy who's only contribution is a failed OS architecture, probably typing it from his incredibly successful linux android or windows monolithic kernel.  And yes I tried minix.  It crashed after a few hours.

And to add irony on top the argument actually adds ammo to block size increase crowd because lightning or sidechains will be an ESSENTIAL part of a 1MB chain.  There won't be any value to users if BTC is running if lightning or SC fails because there isn't space on the chain for users.

I'm guessing ice is still in school regurgitating here the garbage his professors (who likely never worked on a million+ LOC project in their lives) feed him.

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July 26, 2015, 03:37:34 PM
 #29357

And now icebreaker is quoting a guy who's only contribution is a failed OS architecture, probably typing it from his incredibly successful linux android or windows monolithic kernel.  And yes I tried minix.  It crashed after a few hours.

And to add irony on top the argument actually adds ammo to block size increase crowd because lightning or sidechains will be an ESSENTIAL part of a 1MB chain.  There won't be any value to users if BTC is running if lightning or SC fails because there isn't space on the chain for users.

I'm guessing ice is still in school regurgitating here the garbage his professors (who likely never worked on a million+ LOC project in their lives) feed him.



Whoah, that's a bit harsh. I wouldn't agree on saying minix is Tanenbaun only contribution, there's so much more from him, despite being proven "wrong" on the specific monolithic/microkernel debate.

Apart from that, I agree with you on SC and LN (currently mostly vaporware) being an essential part of a 1MB chain in order to make it valuable.
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July 26, 2015, 04:51:09 PM
 #29358

And now icebreaker is quoting a guy who's only contribution is a failed OS architecture, probably typing it from his incredibly successful linux android or windows monolithic kernel.  And yes I tried minix.  It crashed after a few hours.

And to add irony on top the argument actually adds ammo to block size increase crowd because lightning or sidechains will be an ESSENTIAL part of a 1MB chain.  There won't be any value to users if BTC is running if lightning or SC fails because there isn't space on the chain for users.

I'm guessing ice is still in school regurgitating here the garbage his professors (who likely never worked on a million+ LOC project in their lives) feed him.



Whoah, that's a bit harsh. I wouldn't agree on saying minix is Tanenbaun only contribution, there's so much more from him, despite being proven "wrong" on the specific monolithic/microkernel debate.

Apart from that, I agree with you on SC and LN (currently mostly vaporware) being an essential part of a 1MB chain in order to make it valuable.

Yes I exaggerated.  Its a good book.  But that quote probably directly refers to his infamous criticism of linux.
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July 26, 2015, 06:16:24 PM
 #29359

And now icebreaker is quoting a guy who's only contribution is a failed OS architecture, probably typing it from his incredibly successful linux android or windows monolithic kernel.  And yes I tried minix.  It crashed after a few hours.

And to add irony on top the argument actually adds ammo to block size increase crowd because lightning or sidechains will be an ESSENTIAL part of a 1MB chain.  There won't be any value to users if BTC is running if lightning or SC fails because there isn't space on the chain for users.

I'm guessing ice is still in school regurgitating here the garbage his professors (who likely never worked on a million+ LOC project in their lives) feed him.



Whoah, that's a bit harsh. I wouldn't agree on saying minix is Tanenbaun only contribution, there's so much more from him, despite being proven "wrong" on the specific monolithic/microkernel debate.

Apart from that, I agree with you on SC and LN (currently mostly vaporware) being an essential part of a 1MB chain in order to make it valuable.

if memory serves both Adam Back and Joseph Poon said that SC and LN respectively needed a bigger block in any case.

(I'm actually in a hurry as soon as I've time I'll post reference to the source)

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
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Libertas a calumnia


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July 26, 2015, 06:20:45 PM
 #29360

I've you conceptualize that core  dev determination of block size is central planning, then  it becomes clear why it doesn't  work.
That's exactly what Pierre Rochard demostrated whith his replies when I criticized Peter Todd during the "network stress test":

Quote from: petertoddbtc
Peter Todd ‏@petertoddbtc 7 lug

The transaction backlog is like a large crowd of orphans standing outside Sotheby's trying to buy Picasso's for spare change.
Quote from: ilporticodipinto

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