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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1981291 times)
inca
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July 28, 2015, 12:33:33 PM
 #29401

Unfortunately for money to have store of value efficiency it must ultimately have value which with bitcoin rests again on its currency efficiency.

Miners could only store non dust UTXOs in easily accessible storage and ignore incoming txns that spend them unless the fee is worth the cost to look the UTXOs up. There are so many possibilities.   Your problem is that you are a central planner even tho you dont know it -- you are forcing a particular solution (expensive limited txns) onto the network as a whole.

He refuses to understand where the speculative value of bitcoin lies, the decentralised cheap unlimited transactional nature of bitcoin coupled with first mover advantage and importantly the expectation of progressive adoptive waves of new users.

If bitcoin is crippled and day to day transactions are forced off chain then bitcoin ceases to maintain either it's attractiveness or advantages over competing usurper chains. It isn't hard to see a migration of new users to alternate chains or digital monetary media and a collapse in the exchange price of bitcoin if that scenario plays out.

Does the Core team really believe bitcoin will maintain it's speculative value if it continues to be a play thing for 10,000 people globally? Wink
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July 28, 2015, 02:27:14 PM
 #29402

hang on.  Dow futures -20.
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July 28, 2015, 02:39:18 PM
 #29403

As Frappuccino purchases move off main chain and are consolidated by Layer 2 processes, each of Layer 1's 7 tps becomes increasingly valuable, demonstrating it is not the size of the block that matters, but how you use it.

I LOL'ed Wink

LOL'ed - i love the word  Grin good joke
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July 28, 2015, 02:42:20 PM
 #29404

notice how stock mkts almost perfectly reflect consumer sentiment/confidence.  or vice versa.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-28/us-economic-consumer-confidence-plunges-10-month-lows-hope-crashes
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July 28, 2015, 02:43:48 PM
 #29405

As Frappuccino purchases move off main chain and are consolidated by Layer 2 processes, each of Layer 1's 7 tps becomes increasingly valuable, demonstrating it is not the size of the block that matters, but how you use it.

I LOL'ed Wink

LOL'ed - i love the word  Grin good joke

kinda reflects where his thinking is derived.
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July 28, 2015, 04:35:52 PM
 #29406

lets be honest the main problem with LN right now is that it does not exist and to make that happen it first needs to be built and then every wallet and service will need to be retooled to use it. 

But if the above was completed, its definitely worth using.  But does that mean we should also not scale the mainchain?  Absolutely not.  We need multiple options here.

There are secondary problems with LN which we'll only really start to understand as LN starts being used.

1.  Intermediary: If I understand it correctly, you open a payment channel with a LN node, and they open a payment channel with another LN node or with the ultimate destination.  So LN is an intermediary -- but one of Bitcoin's greatest strengths is its "disintermediation" for the many reasons I won't rehash now.  I've listened to well regarded entrepeneurs/technologists give speeches where this is one of their major talking points.  I guess they'll no longer be interested.

2. Fees:  IIRC, a LN payment requires the LN node contain as much working capital as outstanding payment channels.  So a bitcoin payment of quantity A will "utilize" N*A actual bitcoins during the duration of the payment channel(s), where N is the # of hops through the LN network (minimum 2).  LN nodes are GOING to charge a % for the privilege of using their $.  Lately in fiat currencies it costs 1-3% to make a payment.  It even costs that to get cash from an ATM and nowadays merchants just deposit that cash in the bank.  What an awesome racket to get 1% of every single transaction!  Bitcoin wiped away this scam because you could make a transfer for free or so close to free it did not matter (although you might have to wait).  Not going to happen with the LN.

3. No "Blockchain" applications.  Colored coins, etc won't work through LN (because you don't receive the exact coins that the sender sends into the network).  I suppose you could post a txn to the LN with additional data, but you can only post ONE chunk (because your LN payment channel transaction is repeatedly overwritten).  So I guess all the excitement right now around the blockchain as an immutable ledger (which TBH is the only exciting thing happening) will move to an altcoin...

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July 28, 2015, 05:40:50 PM
 #29407

lets be honest the main problem with LN right now is that it does not exist and to make that happen it first needs to be built and then every wallet and service will need to be retooled to use it. 

But if the above was completed, its definitely worth using.  But does that mean we should also not scale the mainchain?  Absolutely not.  We need multiple options here.

There are secondary problems with LN which we'll only really start to understand as LN starts being used.

1.  Intermediary: If I understand it correctly, you open a payment channel with a LN node, and they open a payment channel with another LN node or with the ultimate destination.  So LN is an intermediary -- but one of Bitcoin's greatest strengths is its "disintermediation" for the many reasons I won't rehash now.  I've listened to well regarded entrepeneurs/technologists give speeches where this is one of their major talking points.  I guess they'll no longer be interested.

2. Fees:  IIRC, a LN payment requires the LN node contain as much working capital as outstanding payment channels.  So a bitcoin payment of quantity A will "utilize" N*A actual bitcoins during the duration of the payment channel(s), where N is the # of hops through the LN network (minimum 2).  LN nodes are GOING to charge a % for the privilege of using their $.  Lately in fiat currencies it costs 1-3% to make a payment.  It even costs that to get cash from an ATM and nowadays merchants just deposit that cash in the bank.  What an awesome racket to get 1% of every single transaction!  Bitcoin wiped away this scam because you could make a transfer for free or so close to free it did not matter (although you might have to wait).  Not going to happen with the LN.

3. No "Blockchain" applications.  Colored coins, etc won't work through LN (because you don't receive the exact coins that the sender sends into the network).  I suppose you could post a txn to the LN with additional data, but you can only post ONE chunk (because your LN payment channel transaction is repeatedly overwritten).  So I guess all the excitement right now around the blockchain as an immutable ledger (which TBH is the only exciting thing happening) will move to an altcoin...



no, no, no, nevermind your pretty little head.   iCEBlow has got it all figured out with Team Core.
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July 28, 2015, 05:43:11 PM
 #29408

i'd like to revisit that thought experiment i introduced last week.

an anonymous person hard forks the current Bitcoin code with the only change being a lifting of the limit.  he provably destroys the commit key (a Bitcoin private key) over at github thru a op_return spend.  the result being a Bitcoin source code with no core devs and thus no ability to change it going forward.  would that be enough to carry Bitcoin forward for the next century?
This message is technically incohearent-- there is no such thing as a a "commit key", and "op_return spend" doesn't destroy information if there were; achieving what you suggest simply requires people stop upgrading (which is also part of the reason that we do not use automatic 'push' upgrades)----  but I certantly get the _intent_. and it's one I've forelorely expressed multiple time myself, going back years:

That it would be philosophically ideal and achieve the highest security properites if the system were completely involatile, defined by it's own mechnical construction, and any change to it would simply be a different system which people could voluntarily move to by their own free choice. Through this the system would be immune to whilm, political control, or subterfuge in a much stronger sense.

Sadly, that result currently appears to be pratically be beyond the scope of human engineering abilities-- or at least beyond the efforts expended on any software system I'm aware of thus far.

A particular point that I couldn't disclose the time cypherdoc initially made the argument was that the software the network was running at that moment was vulnerable: http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-July/009697.html

We've had a pipeline of newly discovered non-public vulnerabilties in the Bitcoin protocol running almost all the time since 2012.  I don't have a great answer to that hard questions, but sadly burying our heads in the sand cannot work-- it would just result in a regular series of potentially devistating "emergency" changes, rather than a orderly, planned, resolution.

Bitcoin will not be compromised
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July 28, 2015, 06:25:30 PM
 #29409

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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July 28, 2015, 06:42:34 PM
 #29410

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?


cash is king in times like these. Bitcoin will probably see some of that redistribution I imagine however

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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July 28, 2015, 06:46:10 PM
 #29411

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?


US Dollar.


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July 28, 2015, 06:49:00 PM
 #29412

US Dollar.

Just make sure 1-5% of your NET WORTH (don't leverage yourself in a bad position) in BTC
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July 28, 2015, 06:51:27 PM
 #29413

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?


US Dollar.

yeah, i was gonna say.  altho it's not perfectly correlated. 

China seems to be dumping it into gold; knife catching  Grin:

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July 28, 2015, 07:21:33 PM
 #29414

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?


US Dollar.

Because people believe Yellen will increase interest rates?

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July 28, 2015, 07:52:26 PM
 #29415

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?


deleveraging as a precursor to incoming deflation?

Full Node: http://46.51.193.129 (BU) || http://haschinabannedbitcoin.com
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
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July 28, 2015, 07:58:03 PM
 #29416

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?


US Dollar.

Because people believe Yellen will increase interest rates?

I think money is exiting Europe and Chinese stocks and heading into the dollar / govt bonds as a flight to perceived safety. If the US does raise rates the dollar bull run will intensify; commodities and EM economies / currencies will fall and EM corporate debt issued in usd will be affected. So a raise will beggar thy neighbor and also possibly cripple Us domestically by importing more deflation into an already weak economy.
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July 28, 2015, 07:59:06 PM
 #29417

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?


US Dollar.

Because people believe Yellen will increase interest rates?

Because people have more faith in the US Dollar than other currencies.  Thats the benefit of having a world reserve currency I guess, you can fuck around and inflate for a long time before it all come crashing down.


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cypherdoc
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July 28, 2015, 08:00:21 PM
 #29418

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?


US Dollar.

Because people believe Yellen will increase interest rates?

i'm not sure too many ppl believe that.  after all, raising rates will have profound effects on the national debt interest owed each month for all countries.

i just think we're at the top of another stock cycle that's long overdue to roll over.  how far and how deep is the question.  ppl are anticipating this esp after all the currency crises overseas and liquidating assets for cash; which drives up the demand for USD's.  if the roll gets momentum to the downside, i've said all along that i doubt the US will get lucky again with having both UST's and the USD go up like they did in 2008.  if i had to choose, i'd guess we'd go the way of Japan and watch the USD dump while they do everything they can to save UST's ala JGB's. 
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July 28, 2015, 08:35:23 PM
 #29419

IBLT is a known change which can help a lot with decentralised scaling.

IBLT is still somewhere between whitepaper and prototype, and won't really help scale until blocks are ~100s of MB.

According to Gavin, the relay network already plucked the low-hanging fruit for the short and medium term future:

Quote

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Core GUI - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }
MoneroForCash.com  |  Buy and sell XMR near you  |  Easymonero.com  |  Bitsquare.io - Decentralized XMR Exchange  |  Buy XMR with fiat
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004
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July 28, 2015, 09:03:04 PM
 #29420

If we are to think about Bitcoin in the long term, and given Bitcoin's reasonably critical economic mass of ~$5 bil, current temporary block subsidies can be discounted as we consider fundamental questions about how and when to change one of Satoshi's Holy Numbers.

To which holy number are you referring?

One last question: what's your position on block size limit, never change it or change (in the way you like the most) in the future?

I agree with Satoshi, change it "eventually" sometime in the next ~5 years (after optimization by sidechains/LN and fee markets mature).

"Eventually" will be when we see actual congestion (competitive fees no longer prioritizing tx) or the network otherwise being harmed by the Holy 1MB crapflood regulator.

Accommodating more 'cosmic background spam' with a permanent home in the Mother Chain is the worst reason ever for increasing blocksize.

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Core GUI - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }
MoneroForCash.com  |  Buy and sell XMR near you  |  Easymonero.com  |  Bitsquare.io - Decentralized XMR Exchange  |  Buy XMR with fiat
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004
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