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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
 1.  yes 2.  no

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 Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1884523 times)
iCEBREAKER
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 July 28, 2015, 05:20:43 AM

You also already seem to get the fact that a ~5 cent BTC tx uses electricity equivalent to about 1.5 days worth of typical American home (ie \$15-\$20; cite: some post on reddit I can no longer find).  That's a good starting point.

This is a perfect example of your flawed reasoning.  This comment is analogous to claiming that a sailboat is incredibly inefficient because its energy use is equal to the total wind power available in the ocean divided by the number of sailboats.

Instead the volume of wind power (energy spent mining) is present for a reason that is completely orthogonal to sailboats (transactions).  It is proportional to the amount of energy being input into the system.  In the Bitcoin world, the "energy input" is the conversion of value into bitcoin representation (i.e. long term purchases).  When the block subsidy dies down, this energy input will be reflected in coin appreciation.  When the block subsidy ultimately approaches a negligible quantity, boats will (finally) have to turn on their motors and pay their way across the bitcoin network.

Additionally, you make the circular fallacy of defining the number of total boats allowed on the ocean, and therefore finding the ocean winds to be inefficient.

Ultimately there will be a fee market.  Miners will turn off hashing power until transactions appear that will make mining the block profitable.  We don't need to centrally force this to happen.  You are falling into the fallacy of thinking that others are forcing a lack of a fee market but in fact you are centrally forcing one to exist.  It is technically feasible to have larger blocks, and having them makes each transaction more efficient, so anything less than larger blocks is central planning and reduces efficiency.

And by forcing a fee market you are running the sails and the motors simultaneously, uselessly, and dangerously.

Why is it dangerous?

Money is defined as better by users fundamentally by its transfer efficiency.  This was hard to measure with fiat or PM currencies but it is simple with Bitcoin.  It is the ratio of the fee to the quantity transmitted.  Once the block subsidy diminishes this ratio will be nowhere near zero like it is today.  It is ironic that you ignore this because it is what fundamentally gave Bitcoin value in the early days while nobel laureate economists were insisting that Bitcoin would fail because it had "no intrinsic value".

Once the motor's (transaction's) true efficiency is not hidden by the wind (block subsidy), the most efficient (and accessible) cryptocurrency implementation will "win" just like gold "won" over silver.  Just like Apple is learning, getting a head start does not matter much when a huge percentage of the world simply cannot afford your product, so MUST choose a competitor.

Money currency
is defined as better by users fundamentally by its transfer efficiency.

fify.  Better: Money is defined as better by users fundamentally by its storage of value efficiency.

I like the wind of subsidy in early tx's sails analogy.  But the recent appearance of "cosmic background spam" makes it outdated.

The problem is that sailboats are expensive to construct and operate, while Bitcoin tx are not.

If we are to think about Bitcoin in the long term, and given Bitcoin's reasonably critical economic mass of ~\$5 bil, current temporary block subsidies can be discounted as we consider fundamental questions about how and when to change one of Satoshi's Holy Numbers.

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Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013

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Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004
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nby
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 July 28, 2015, 08:17:56 AM

[...]
I like the wind of subsidy in early tx's sails analogy.  But the recent appearance of "cosmic background spam" makes it outdated.

The problem is that sailboats are expensive to construct and operate, while Bitcoin tx are not.
[...]

Yes, they're not expensive, especially the spam ones. And guess why is that so ? Because there's no room for those transactions in a 1MB block, and  whoever is sending them can just resend them over and over again without actually spending a dime on them.
dnaleor
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Want privacy? Use Monero!

 July 28, 2015, 08:25:03 AM

As Frappuccino purchases move off main chain and are consolidated by Layer 2 processes, each of Layer 1's 7 tps becomes increasingly valuable, demonstrating it is not the size of the block that matters, but how you use it.

I LOL'ed

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sickpig
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 July 28, 2015, 09:43:56 AM

If we are to think about Bitcoin in the long term, and given Bitcoin's reasonably critical economic mass of ~\$5 bil, current temporary block subsidies can be discounted as we consider fundamental questions about how and when to change one of Satoshi's Holy Numbers.

To which holy number are you referring to?

One last question: what's your position on block size limit, never change it or change (in the way you like the most) in the future?

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
thezerg
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 July 28, 2015, 10:53:39 AM

Unfortunately for money to have store of value efficiency it must ultimately have value which with bitcoin rests again on its currency efficiency.

Miners could only store non dust UTXOs in easily accessible storage and ignore incoming txns that spend them unless the fee is worth the cost to look the UTXOs up. There are so many possibilities.   Your problem is that you are a central planner even tho you dont know it -- you are forcing a particular solution (expensive limited txns) onto the network as a whole.
sickpig
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 July 28, 2015, 12:03:30 PM

Increasing block size does add features (and/or bugs), in the form of higher tps and whatever concomitant other new auto/adaptive regulation mechanisms come along with the eventual solution.  100k max tx size is probably only the first such required adjustment.

gavin adopt an indirect and simplistic approach, to which gavin replied:

But I would REALLY hate myself if in ten years a future version of me was struggling to
get consensus to move away from some stupid 100,000 byte transaction size limit
I imposed to mitigate a potential DoS attack.

So I agree, a limit on sigops is the right way to go. And if that is being changed,
might as well accurately count exactly how many sigops a transaction actually
requires to be validated...

the bolded part really makes me laugh, though.

that said it seems that there won't be any cap to tx size for the moment.

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
sickpig
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 July 28, 2015, 12:12:15 PM

If anything, we should get the blocksize to the largest rationally supportable size

This is exactly where reasonable people differ.

That is a key word right there "reasonable".  I certainly haven't had any great epiphany as to how to choose the correct size or how to make it a reliably updated thing.   Predictability and anything that removes human consensus making from an ongoing process is what I would favor.

The only way to remove human consensus from the ongoing process is to leave it exactly the way it is. No changes to the consensus rules ever (MP argument).

That is btw pretty much Wladimir's view. He's not going to back any change that doesn't have human consensus. So you either have human consensus or, removing it from the process, no changes at all.

i wonder what all those guys will say next year when the Blockstream guys want to change the code for SC's and LN if Gavin objects.

Sidechains can be done with a soft fork, which means all they need to do is sign up miners (and of course find customers who want to use the side chain). It doesn't require a global consensus.

But if SC, and also LN,  needs a block size increase in any case (source, source2), doesn't this mean that introducing SC implies an hard-fork?

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
sgbett
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 July 28, 2015, 12:32:30 PM

Quote
The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

Oh yeah? So adding complicated stuff like sidechains and lightning network is making bitcoin code smaller?

To the extent those build on top of Bitcoin they aren't adding features to it or making the the core code bigger. If they require changes to the core code or adding new features to it, that's a different matter that needs to be considered carefully.

But if the claim is that sidechains are the 'solution' to the 'problem'. Then you are saying they are part of bitcoin [the ecosystem] whether they are part of core or not.

Increasing block size does not add features *and* it 'solves' the 'problem'. Without introducing any other layers of complexity, or attempting to artificially manipulate the fee economy that is growing organically just as it was always intended.

What frightens me is that the whole thing seems to have turned into a pissing contest.

The fee market isn't a problem right now, the block size is. So why are people trying to pre-emptively fix the fee market in an ass backwards way to address the block size problem.

Nobody is claiming to have predetermined that sidechains (or LN) are necessarily the ENTIRETY of the solution to the scaling problem, only that they are potentially part of it.  Bitcoin is an ongoing bleeding-edge experiment, and we are working with intuition, educated guesses, hypotheses, and prototypes, not off-the-shelf kit in neat little boxes.

Increasing block size does add features (and/or bugs), in the form of higher tps and whatever concomitant other new auto/adaptive regulation mechanisms come along with the eventual solution.  100k max tx size is probably only the first such required adjustment.

And thus, the 100k max tx adjustment neatly destroys your claim that larger blocks do not introduce additional complexity.  More is different; the dose makes the poison...

The Red Queen interpretation, whereby we must change Bitcoin ASAP for the sake of keeping it the same, is absurd.  Moving the tx supply curve with the goal of controlling the range where it intersects that of demand is prima facie centralized market manipulation.  As long as tx fees are absurdly underpriced, in terms of their cost and what users are willing to pay, the fee market is completely broken.  Bitoin's 'free sample/loss leader' viral marketing campaign phase ended with the emergence of omnipresent 'cosmic background spam.'

The "pissing contest" which "frightens" your delicate sensibilities is exactly the "fight" to which Tannenbaum exhorts us, because the "adversarial process is valuable in assuring [features] do not compromise security or reliability."

Misrepresenting my position then arguing against that isn't going to cut it.

I said the problem is that the block size is too small, and that the solution is to make the block size bigger. That doing this requires no additional functionality. I contrasted this to the sidechain solution which does require additional functionality. As you rightly say nobody is claiming that is entirely the solution, but that is irrelevant, the point is that this or other solution(s) that require extra functionality are the very thing that your Tanenbaum quote warns against.

All that stuff you said about how we need to change TX size, thats some other thing. Either you are intentionally conflating the two, which is disingenuous or you really can't tell the difference, which I doubt is the case.

It looks to me like your emotional attachment to your position is causing your reasoning to become irrational. I don't think anyone's argument is absurd. I can see how enforcing higher fees benefits some parties, I think that misses the big picture which is that it *requires* additional functionality.

I'm not frightened of pissing contests, I think they are childish. You don't need to "fight" anything. As a smart human being we all need to listen, think and reason. Not inject hyperbole, and inflammatory language into posts to try and bully your opposition. Your argument should stand on its own merit and not the vehemence with which it is delivered.

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inca
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 July 28, 2015, 12:33:33 PM

Unfortunately for money to have store of value efficiency it must ultimately have value which with bitcoin rests again on its currency efficiency.

Miners could only store non dust UTXOs in easily accessible storage and ignore incoming txns that spend them unless the fee is worth the cost to look the UTXOs up. There are so many possibilities.   Your problem is that you are a central planner even tho you dont know it -- you are forcing a particular solution (expensive limited txns) onto the network as a whole.

He refuses to understand where the speculative value of bitcoin lies, the decentralised cheap unlimited transactional nature of bitcoin coupled with first mover advantage and importantly the expectation of progressive adoptive waves of new users.

If bitcoin is crippled and day to day transactions are forced off chain then bitcoin ceases to maintain either it's attractiveness or advantages over competing usurper chains. It isn't hard to see a migration of new users to alternate chains or digital monetary media and a collapse in the exchange price of bitcoin if that scenario plays out.

Does the Core team really believe bitcoin will maintain it's speculative value if it continues to be a play thing for 10,000 people globally?
cypherdoc
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 July 28, 2015, 02:27:14 PM

hang on.  Dow futures -20.
Natalia_AnatolioPAMM
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 July 28, 2015, 02:39:18 PM

As Frappuccino purchases move off main chain and are consolidated by Layer 2 processes, each of Layer 1's 7 tps becomes increasingly valuable, demonstrating it is not the size of the block that matters, but how you use it.

I LOL'ed

LOL'ed - i love the word  good joke

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cypherdoc
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 July 28, 2015, 02:42:20 PM

notice how stock mkts almost perfectly reflect consumer sentiment/confidence.  or vice versa.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-28/us-economic-consumer-confidence-plunges-10-month-lows-hope-crashes
cypherdoc
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 July 28, 2015, 02:43:48 PM

As Frappuccino purchases move off main chain and are consolidated by Layer 2 processes, each of Layer 1's 7 tps becomes increasingly valuable, demonstrating it is not the size of the block that matters, but how you use it.

I LOL'ed

LOL'ed - i love the word  good joke

kinda reflects where his thinking is derived.
thezerg
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 July 28, 2015, 04:35:52 PM

lets be honest the main problem with LN right now is that it does not exist and to make that happen it first needs to be built and then every wallet and service will need to be retooled to use it.

But if the above was completed, its definitely worth using.  But does that mean we should also not scale the mainchain?  Absolutely not.  We need multiple options here.

There are secondary problems with LN which we'll only really start to understand as LN starts being used.

1.  Intermediary: If I understand it correctly, you open a payment channel with a LN node, and they open a payment channel with another LN node or with the ultimate destination.  So LN is an intermediary -- but one of Bitcoin's greatest strengths is its "disintermediation" for the many reasons I won't rehash now.  I've listened to well regarded entrepeneurs/technologists give speeches where this is one of their major talking points.  I guess they'll no longer be interested.

2. Fees:  IIRC, a LN payment requires the LN node contain as much working capital as outstanding payment channels.  So a bitcoin payment of quantity A will "utilize" N*A actual bitcoins during the duration of the payment channel(s), where N is the # of hops through the LN network (minimum 2).  LN nodes are GOING to charge a % for the privilege of using their \$.  Lately in fiat currencies it costs 1-3% to make a payment.  It even costs that to get cash from an ATM and nowadays merchants just deposit that cash in the bank.  What an awesome racket to get 1% of every single transaction!  Bitcoin wiped away this scam because you could make a transfer for free or so close to free it did not matter (although you might have to wait).  Not going to happen with the LN.

3. No "Blockchain" applications.  Colored coins, etc won't work through LN (because you don't receive the exact coins that the sender sends into the network).  I suppose you could post a txn to the LN with additional data, but you can only post ONE chunk (because your LN payment channel transaction is repeatedly overwritten).  So I guess all the excitement right now around the blockchain as an immutable ledger (which TBH is the only exciting thing happening) will move to an altcoin...

cypherdoc
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 July 28, 2015, 05:40:50 PM

lets be honest the main problem with LN right now is that it does not exist and to make that happen it first needs to be built and then every wallet and service will need to be retooled to use it.

But if the above was completed, its definitely worth using.  But does that mean we should also not scale the mainchain?  Absolutely not.  We need multiple options here.

There are secondary problems with LN which we'll only really start to understand as LN starts being used.

1.  Intermediary: If I understand it correctly, you open a payment channel with a LN node, and they open a payment channel with another LN node or with the ultimate destination.  So LN is an intermediary -- but one of Bitcoin's greatest strengths is its "disintermediation" for the many reasons I won't rehash now.  I've listened to well regarded entrepeneurs/technologists give speeches where this is one of their major talking points.  I guess they'll no longer be interested.

2. Fees:  IIRC, a LN payment requires the LN node contain as much working capital as outstanding payment channels.  So a bitcoin payment of quantity A will "utilize" N*A actual bitcoins during the duration of the payment channel(s), where N is the # of hops through the LN network (minimum 2).  LN nodes are GOING to charge a % for the privilege of using their \$.  Lately in fiat currencies it costs 1-3% to make a payment.  It even costs that to get cash from an ATM and nowadays merchants just deposit that cash in the bank.  What an awesome racket to get 1% of every single transaction!  Bitcoin wiped away this scam because you could make a transfer for free or so close to free it did not matter (although you might have to wait).  Not going to happen with the LN.

3. No "Blockchain" applications.  Colored coins, etc won't work through LN (because you don't receive the exact coins that the sender sends into the network).  I suppose you could post a txn to the LN with additional data, but you can only post ONE chunk (because your LN payment channel transaction is repeatedly overwritten).  So I guess all the excitement right now around the blockchain as an immutable ledger (which TBH is the only exciting thing happening) will move to an altcoin...

no, no, no, nevermind your pretty little head.   iCEBlow has got it all figured out with Team Core.
gmaxwell
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 July 28, 2015, 05:43:11 PM

i'd like to revisit that thought experiment i introduced last week.

an anonymous person hard forks the current Bitcoin code with the only change being a lifting of the limit.  he provably destroys the commit key (a Bitcoin private key) over at github thru a op_return spend.  the result being a Bitcoin source code with no core devs and thus no ability to change it going forward.  would that be enough to carry Bitcoin forward for the next century?
This message is technically incohearent-- there is no such thing as a a "commit key", and "op_return spend" doesn't destroy information if there were; achieving what you suggest simply requires people stop upgrading (which is also part of the reason that we do not use automatic 'push' upgrades)----  but I certantly get the _intent_. and it's one I've forelorely expressed multiple time myself, going back years:

That it would be philosophically ideal and achieve the highest security properites if the system were completely involatile, defined by it's own mechnical construction, and any change to it would simply be a different system which people could voluntarily move to by their own free choice. Through this the system would be immune to whilm, political control, or subterfuge in a much stronger sense.

Sadly, that result currently appears to be pratically be beyond the scope of human engineering abilities-- or at least beyond the efforts expended on any software system I'm aware of thus far.

A particular point that I couldn't disclose the time cypherdoc initially made the argument was that the software the network was running at that moment was vulnerable: http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-July/009697.html

We've had a pipeline of newly discovered non-public vulnerabilties in the Bitcoin protocol running almost all the time since 2012.  I don't have a great answer to that hard questions, but sadly burying our heads in the sand cannot work-- it would just result in a regular series of potentially devistating "emergency" changes, rather than a orderly, planned, resolution.
molecular
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 July 28, 2015, 06:25:30 PM

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?

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lebing
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Enabling the maximal migration

 July 28, 2015, 06:42:34 PM

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?

cash is king in times like these. Bitcoin will probably see some of that redistribution I imagine however

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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wpalczynski
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 July 28, 2015, 06:46:10 PM

hang on.  Dow futures -20.

I have a question...

Everything seems to be going down (except bitcoin, but I exclude it here because it's negligibly small).

Where's the money going?

US Dollar.

uvwvj
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 July 28, 2015, 06:49:00 PM

US Dollar.

Just make sure 1-5% of your NET WORTH (don't leverage yourself in a bad position) in BTC
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