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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806736 times)
cypherdoc
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July 24, 2015, 07:58:34 PM
 #29281

What is your brief take on the macro economic picture for the next year or two cypher?

Not good. I'd like confirmation of the Dow Theory by getting a violation of that red line first by the $DJI, but I think it's going to happen. I expect the $DJI to be lower than it is in a year and a half.
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Strange, yet attractive.


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July 24, 2015, 08:14:38 PM
 #29282



Uh oh. Gold doesn't look good... The $700 scenario is approaching fast.

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July 24, 2015, 09:06:33 PM
 #29283


Uh oh. Gold doesn't look good... The $700 scenario is approaching fast.

Fantastic!  I decided for a variety of financial and political reasons to sell the house I bought.  (I got caught up in doing this to get rid of some extra cash in late 2010 after I'd already downloaded the Bitcoin source but had not gotten around to compiling it.  Had I not, I probably would have bought and/or mined a lot more Bitcoin for a much lower price.  Oh well.)  Anyway, I will have a problem about what to do with the cash when the house sells.  If I can get physical PMs for anywhere near the same price as paper PMs it will solve my excess cash problem nicely.  I've for some time expected an extreme dip in PM prices (at least of the paper variety) as a precursor to some real fireworks in mainstream land.  Perhaps this could be the one.  (Hope not...hard times follow for everyone.)


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July 24, 2015, 09:50:23 PM
 #29284

Gavin's solution to solve 25 sec long time validation attack blocks ala the single 1MB f2pool block of a coupla wks ago:

http://bitcoin-development.narkive.com/wEdAXkTT/for-discussion-limit-transaction-size-to-mitigate-cve-2013-2292#post6
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July 24, 2015, 09:58:27 PM
 #29285

The gold price is dropping so fast guys.
May i know what is happening? Maybe that bitgold?
Maybe the gold is as a digital currency?
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July 24, 2015, 10:29:35 PM
 #29286

Kinda late, eh?:

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/624663002151788544
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July 24, 2015, 10:58:47 PM
 #29287

Garzik starting to get it more and more:

https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/624712746471329792

I keep asking, you think Nasdaq expects or wants to have to compete, do an RBF, or pay high fees in getting every stock trade marker into the MC? Nor will they ever accept a SC solution.
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July 24, 2015, 11:11:31 PM
 #29288

oops, gold going negative again.

ah, that sweet smell of deflation.

Next jobs claim is gonna be a doozy... lowest claims for unemployment insurance since '74. Look for mickey mouse game to continue with a 300pt rise

You were right on the report  but wrong on the reaction. What are you going to do?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/07/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_23.html?m=1
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July 24, 2015, 11:13:24 PM
 #29289

oops, gold going negative again.

ah, that sweet smell of deflation.

Next jobs claim is gonna be a doozy... lowest claims for unemployment insurance since '74. Look for mickey mouse game to continue with a 300pt rise

You were right on the report  but wrong on the reaction. What are you going to do?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/07/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_23.html?m=1

on  a friday thats pretty bad... still buy the dip risk reward here is great
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July 24, 2015, 11:19:31 PM
 #29290

Garzik starting to get it more and more:

https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/624712746471329792

I keep asking, you think Nasdaq expects or wants to have to compete, do an RBF, or pay high fees in getting every stock trade marker into the MC? Nor will they ever accept a SC solution.

Why wouldnt they prefer to use a sidechain where they can control and better obfuscate transactions?

Even such, as long as it is built on top of bitcoin, does it really matter whether Nasdaq's intent is to rely on the main chain or not?


The advantage of bitcoin is that it has been around for 6 years and has proven itself to be extremely robust as a protocol that handles transactions. If Nasdaq wants to create it's own private altcoin, that would take years of planning with hundreds of businesses and entities to ensure that their altcoin would be able to serve everybody. I don't think anyone in the world even today, 6 years after the launch of bitcoin, could create such a business plan that can be executed in a meaningful time period (e.g. inside of 10 years) where this altcoin would be able to supercede bitcoin's capabilities.

They would rather buy their own miners, form a pool, and obfuscate their transactions on a sidechain than to wait 10 years on a piece of software or technology that bitcoin could render obsolete in months because of its open source nature.
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July 24, 2015, 11:31:43 PM
 #29291

This sounds just grand:

http://www.coindesk.com/research-banks-unprepared-for-digital-disruption/?utm_content=bufferdac01&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
iCEBREAKER
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Crypto is the separation of Power and State.


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July 24, 2015, 11:40:19 PM
 #29292

Garzik starting to get it more and more

Nope, Garzik is losing his grip and confusing BTC's economic figure with its development ground.

Tx fees have always been destined to wean the network off, and ultimately replace, block subsidies.  It's not a "new" policy.

Who appointed Garzik as Bitcoin's FOMC and granted him the power to regulate fee pressure?

Fee pressure is something to be celebrated as a milestone towards Bitcoin independence (and away from Ponzi territory), not feared and used to justify panic reactions just because fees rise from 1/8 to 1/4 of a pittance.

Garzik whines (and exaggerates) about slightly higher tx fees differing "radically" from "what users have experienced for the past ~6 years."

So what?  Users have also experienced sub-$10k BTC in the past.  If BTC rises to $10k, should we increase block emission to preserve UX?

The spectacle of a Bitcoin core dev wringing his hands over "disruption" and "new economic policy" is hard to endure.  As PWuille stated so powerfully and succinctly:

Quote

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
cypherdoc
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July 25, 2015, 02:05:18 AM
 #29293

bullish:

cypherdoc
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July 25, 2015, 02:13:50 AM
 #29294

Garzik starting to get it more and more

Nope, Garzik is losing his grip and confusing BTC's economic figure with its development ground.

Tx fees have always been destined to wean the network off, and ultimately replace, block subsidies.  It's not a "new" policy.

Who appointed Garzik as Bitcoin's FOMC and granted him the power to regulate fee pressure?

Fee pressure is something to be celebrated as a milestone towards Bitcoin independence (and away from Ponzi territory), not feared and used to justify panic reactions just because fees rise from 1/8 to 1/4 of a pittance.

Garzik whines (and exaggerates) about slightly higher tx fees differing "radically" from "what users have experienced for the past ~6 years."

So what?  Users have also experienced sub-$10k BTC in the past.  If BTC rises to $10k, should we increase block emission to preserve UX?

The spectacle of a Bitcoin core dev wringing his hands over "disruption" and "new economic policy" is hard to endure.  As PWuille stated so powerfully and succinctly:

Quote

devs should stick to what they know best; coding.  they are inexperienced and naive in areas such as fee markets or finance, much less game theory.  most of them have little experience in dealing with ppl much less starting a business.  ppl who understand these things and who have knowledge regarding the history of money and economics certainly can help prevent missteps along the way.
iCEBREAKER
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July 25, 2015, 02:46:35 AM
 #29295

devs should stick to what they know best; coding.  they are inexperienced and naive in areas such as fee markets or finance, much less game theory.  most of them have little experience in dealing with ppl much less starting a business.  ppl who understand these things and who have knowledge regarding the history of money and economics certainly can help prevent missteps along the way.

That's true for devs in general.  Security, crypto, and especially BTC devs by necessity and predilection have deep understandings of game theory.

But yes, they should stick to coding and not (attempt) central management of tx fee markets, regardless of pleas of 'Oh, won't someone think of the users!'

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
cypherdoc
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July 25, 2015, 02:50:09 AM
 #29296

devs should stick to what they know best; coding.  they are inexperienced and naive in areas such as fee markets or finance, much less game theory.  most of them have little experience in dealing with ppl much less starting a business.  ppl who understand these things and who have knowledge regarding the history of money and economics certainly can help prevent missteps along the way.

That's true for devs in general.  Security, crypto, and especially BTC devs by necessity and predilection have deep understandings of game theory.

But yes, they should stick to coding and not (attempt) central management of tx fee markets, regardless of pleas of 'Oh, won't someone think of the users!'

then why do we hear nothing but cries of "centralization" from gmax et al despite this?

iCEBREAKER
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July 25, 2015, 03:09:12 AM
 #29297

devs should stick to what they know best; coding.  they are inexperienced and naive in areas such as fee markets or finance, much less game theory.  most of them have little experience in dealing with ppl much less starting a business.  ppl who understand these things and who have knowledge regarding the history of money and economics certainly can help prevent missteps along the way.

That's true for devs in general.  Security, crypto, and especially BTC devs by necessity and predilection have deep understandings of game theory.

But yes, they should stick to coding and not (attempt) central management of tx fee markets, regardless of pleas of 'Oh, won't someone think of the users!'

then why do we hear nothing but cries of "centralization" from gmax et al despite this?



Because having ~5 entities, with no way to verify their independence, controlling over 50% of the hashrate is not ideal for decentralization.

I'm certain gmax has already explained that to you, but too lazy to find the cite ATM.   Tongue

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
Cconvert2G36
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July 25, 2015, 04:41:15 AM
 #29298

I'm sure mining node operators with the ability to handle 2MB blocks will displace those that can only "handle" 1MB.

Tempest in a teapot. BIP 102 wouldn't change the landscape at all. But snarking redditards is so much fun...
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July 25, 2015, 07:42:21 AM
 #29299

I cannot wait until we fork this problem away.
Yep.

interesting reddit post that sums up the fork in the road debate nicely. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ef6h1/bitcoin_ideology_do_you_vote_for_a_or_b/

Quote
Multiple Choice Question:
Do you see bitcoin in the future as:
A) a scaling peer to peer network with ultra cheap transactions, for anyone globally to use, with bitcoin functioning as internet cash, avoiding financial intermediaries or banks.
B) a settlement layer for banks, fin tech companies and early adopters, with a low volume expensive to transact upon blockchain

The root of the issue is that option "B" Bitcoin as a high-fee high-value settlement layer, without "A" scaling and widespread growing ecosystem usage happening first, is economic illiteracy of the first order. "B" by itself is simply a wet-dream of Blockchain Economics central planner fanbois.
If the 1MB is allowed to crowd out regular user tx, not just spam, then fees will plateau and inexorably decline amid an ongoing PR disaster.

Fortunately rescue from the 1MB4EVR idiocy seems likely.
Gavin is fixing the cpu-intensive bloat-tx attack threat, and then it looks like the change to an 8MB block limit will be offered to the community. I hope that Gavin and Jeff team up for this. When I first learned about Bitcoin it was Satoshi, Gavin, Jeff and Sipa who were commit access Core Dev (though Satoshi was already the Silent One). If it takes just two of them to get Bitcoin back on the track to success - then all power to them!

cypherdoc
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July 25, 2015, 07:58:05 AM
 #29300

I cannot wait until we fork this problem away.
Yep.

interesting reddit post that sums up the fork in the road debate nicely. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ef6h1/bitcoin_ideology_do_you_vote_for_a_or_b/

Quote
Multiple Choice Question:
Do you see bitcoin in the future as:
A) a scaling peer to peer network with ultra cheap transactions, for anyone globally to use, with bitcoin functioning as internet cash, avoiding financial intermediaries or banks.
B) a settlement layer for banks, fin tech companies and early adopters, with a low volume expensive to transact upon blockchain

The root of the issue is that option "B" Bitcoin as a high-fee high-value settlement layer, without "A" scaling and widespread growing ecosystem usage happening first, is economic illiteracy of the first order. "B" by itself is simply a wet-dream of Blockchain Economics central planner fanbois.
If the 1MB is allowed to crowd out regular user tx, not just spam, then fees will plateau and inexorably decline amid an ongoing PR disaster.

Fortunately rescue from the 1MB4EVR idiocy seems likely.
Gavin is fixing the cpu-intensive bloat-tx attack threat, and then it looks like the change to an 8MB block limit will be offered to the community. I hope that Gavin and Jeff team up for this. When I first learned about Bitcoin it was Satoshi, Gavin, Jeff and Sipa who were commit access Core Dev (though Satoshi was already the Silent One). If it takes just two of them to get Bitcoin back on the track to success - then all power to them!

Hey hey, as early adopter, I resemble that!
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