[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think Monero is pretty low now.. There is very little to no room for further down trend other than the coin pretty much is not worth to continue to work with (death). Marketcap is roughly 5.2 million only. That's nothing. Even many companies are valued higher.
If we assume the coin will not die, the upside potential of Monero is greater than the downside. Bear in mind also that Risto's fund is going to start accepting fiat for Moneros so Monero will be independent.
I hope others than Risto will launch such funds as well. If that will be done, there is basically no limit how high the price will go.

I am surprised how long bitcoin has been able to maintain the price level above 100 usd. The longer btc is able to maintain it, the less probable will it become to see sub 100 usd/btc. That being said, sometimes the unexpected things happen.

[MalMen]

I hope others than Risto will launch such funds as well. If that will be done, there is basically no limit how high the price will go.

I already thinked about trading fiat for monero too, but in a country with no specific rulles for cryptocurrency it can bring me some troble, but i am acepting contacts on moneroclub... by the way, anyone have any idea what volume moneroclub have? i think it should be prety low...

[rpietila]

I will be bullish on BTC and XMR when the blocksize debate is over and we are moving closer to the halving.

Maybe so, but I prefer to invest when the trust is low and the price is cheap.

I'm going to be mostly in fiat until Jan 2016 at the earliest.

The guys in CKG don't feel that bad. Perhaps you should also try, the remainder of the year might be interesting

[smooth]

The only time I suspected something was wrong (beyond Mark himself) was in April 2013 when my ex-employee contacted me to report there was an account that seemed to be buying bitcoins at a surplus rate, and it seemed to be internal to the company.

It's even worse than I thought. The fake trading started in April.

Read it again. Ex-employee contacted him in April 2013, which means it started even earlier than that.

[jehst]

The only time I suspected something was wrong (beyond Mark himself) was in April 2013 when my ex-employee contacted me to report there was an account that seemed to be buying bitcoins at a surplus rate, and it seemed to be internal to the company.

It's even worse than I thought. The fake trading started in April.

Read it again. Ex-employee contacted him in April 2013, which means it started even earlier than that.

All considered, it's pretty good that we're maintaining above $200

[pinky]

I'm bearish on BTC right now so that makes me bearish on XMR. Too many rejections at $300/btc. Coinbase lunar rejection. March/April rejection. Summer rejection.

It's funny how we see same things in different color. I don't see this current rejection as very strong one. More times we will test $300 less likely it is to hold. The bounce from 300 is each time slower and shallower. It doesn't seem like bears are in full control anymore.

[smooth]

The only time I suspected something was wrong (beyond Mark himself) was in April 2013 when my ex-employee contacted me to report there was an account that seemed to be buying bitcoins at a surplus rate, and it seemed to be internal to the company.

It's even worse than I thought. The fake trading started in April.

Read it again. Ex-employee contacted him in April 2013, which means it started even earlier than that.

All considered, it's pretty good that we're maintaining above $200

Well I saw most of 2014 as a consolidation phase as we recovered from the bullshit Gox and China pump in 2013. Meanwhile venture capital poured in to start to build things that people might actually use, and by late 2014 or early 2015 it seemed utility, potential, and the rate of building might be starting to converge with price. Since then things seem kind of stable. At a fundamental level I think the market is waiting for developments, like whether the technology holds up, scalability is feasible, regulation becomes suffocating, something better pushes it aside, a killer app appears, etc. I don't think what Gox did matters much right now, but I could be wrong.

[dreamspark]

The only time I suspected something was wrong (beyond Mark himself) was in April 2013 when my ex-employee contacted me to report there was an account that seemed to be buying bitcoins at a surplus rate, and it seemed to be internal to the company.

It's even worse than I thought. The fake trading started in April.

Read it again. Ex-employee contacted him in April 2013, which means it started even earlier than that.

All considered, it's pretty good that we're maintaining above $200

Well I saw most of 2014 as a consolidation phase as we recovered from the bullshit Gox and China pump in 2013. Meanwhile venture capital poured in to start to build things that people might actually use, and by late 2014 or early 2015 it seemed utility, potential, and the rate of building might be starting to converge with price. Since then things seem kind of stable. At a fundamental level I think the market is waiting for developments, like whether the technology holds up, scalability is feasible, regulation becomes suffocating, something better pushes it aside, a killer app appears, etc. I don't think what Gox did matters much right now, but I could be wrong.

I definately second that the whole gox scenario matters little now. Regardless of what came before its been nearly two years since that fiasco and as far as we know nothing else like it is/has been occuring. It was a case of too big too quickly and with terrible leadership. On a fundamental level bitcoin is still cheap at this price point takinginto consideration the total market cap vs its potential utility.

[dEBRUYNE]

I'm bearish on BTC right now so that makes me bearish on XMR. Too many rejections at $300/btc. Coinbase lunar rejection. March/April rejection. Summer rejection. You might say that XMR can go up without bitcoin. This is true, but it will be difficult. LTC and DRK both had pumps that failed this year.

What I want to see is broad bullishness in the cryptocurrency space. Not just short-lived, local pumps.
I will be bullish on BTC and XMR when the blocksize debate is over and we are moving closer to the halving. I'm going to be mostly in fiat until Jan 2016 at the earliest.

Mark Karpeles arrest and confirmation of the willybot history is extremely bearish, the great Bitcoin pump was insider manipulation, there is little demand for cryptocurrencies, but I'm extra bearish on Bitcoin, at least while cryptokingdown shows promise on XMR side, and it does.

I'm reading through the ex Mtgox CEO AMA on reddit now. Look at this:

The only time I suspected something was wrong (beyond Mark himself) was in April 2013 when my ex-employee contacted me to report there was an account that seemed to be buying bitcoins at a surplus rate, and it seemed to be internal to the company.

It's even worse than I thought. The fake trading started in April.

You should both read this comment -> https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fe92x/im_ashley_barr_aka_adam_turner_the_first_mtgox/cto1383

PS: Wall moved down to 0.0022, it still remains to be seen whether it's real or not.

[rpietila]

Crypto Kingdom is going online testing, and the financial features such as gold, land and bonds trading have been ramped up.

We are thinking of allowing withdrawals. There are practical issues such as authorization - CK is big, the largest accounts are worth 10k+ XMR... If we manage the hurdles before V.4 is launched, the asset values may surge because the money is no longer trapped once invested in CK.

[dreamspark]

PS: Wall moved down to 0.0022, it still remains to be seen whether it's real or not.

Moving the ask down to that close to the market price certainly makes it far more likely that it is there to be bought.

In fact as I'm typing this it is being bought into .

[americanpegasus]

We should probably thank bitcoin for getting the Silk Road and Mt. Gox scenarios out of the way for us. 
 
Now, those who use Monero to do black market deals won't create a massive black market fortress so carelessly and easily.  If Monero had come first, and the Silk Road has used it properly, it would have been a much bigger nightmare for law enforcement and Monero likely may have been outlawed. 
 
Also, the first large crypto exchange has been mismanaged and imploded.  Now that everyone can see what happens when you abuse other people's money (and it's a great precedent that we are treating the bitcoin lost as money), no one will be so foolish (hopefully) going forward.

[newrad]

Monero is the future.

[Domian]

Monero is the future.

nope,

darkcoin is the future

[generalizethis]

Monero is the future.

nope,

darkcoin is the future

nope,

xcoin is the future.

(wayback machine engaged)

[ArticMine]

I see the XMR/XBT exchange rate in the short to medium term to be driven by the development effort currently going on in  Monero rather than external events such the fate of Mark Karpelès. There is an ever widening gap between the "official" binaries (over 8 months old) and the current master tree on GitHub. https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero. My take is that the market has not yet fully priced this discrepancy.

How many market participants actually compile Monero on GNU/Linux from source, verses say run a compiled "official" Windows binary on Microsoft Windows 10 or even worse leave their Monero on Poloniex while trading from their iPads? I for one have compiled Monero from source on GNU/Linux (Ubuntu 15.04) and on the 100% Libre GNU/Linux distribution Trisquel 7.0. I can say that the improvement in performance memory requirements etc is easily several orders of magnitude.  Now those that are staying in the DRM infected walled gardens of Microsoft and Apple have two choices:
1) They can trust me regarding this discrepancy between the "official" binaries and the compiled source. The trouble with this is that my views are biased by the fact that I already hold a significant XMR position and stand to profit very handsomely by an increase in the XMR/XBT or XMR/USD exchange rate.. I have run my own benchmarks and there is no way I can justify selling any XMR in this market. Buying does still remain an option for me.
or what I really recommend:
2) They can cut of their Apple and Microsoft DRM chains of impoverishment, get out of the respective walled gardens and install GNU/Linux. This will allow them to compile Monero from source, run their own benchmarks, and compare them with the benchmarks of the "official" binaries and then form their own conclusions on the wisdom of buying or selling XMR in this market.  

I will point out that I have already profited handsomely from buying Bitcoin in 2011 and 2012 between 2 USD and 10 USD. During this period Apple had prohibited the iSheep form buying Bitcoin. This prohibition was enforced on IOS by the means of DRM.

Edit: Monero compiling instructions. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=652305.msg12033096#msg12033096 Thanks to GingerAle.

[smooth]

You should both read this comment -> https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fe92x/im_ashley_barr_aka_adam_turner_the_first_mtgox/cto1383

I definitely think the next comment has to be true (that gox was net short) if the willy bot scenario is true https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fe92x/im_ashley_barr_aka_adam_turner_the_first_mtgox/ctor4f3

It's basically this, which was very insightfully written at the time:

Peter R’s Theory on the Collapse of Mt. Gox

TL/DR: A young man had a secret.  To keep it hidden, he kept digging until the hole was a billion dollars deep.  This is a speculative tale of a great bitcoin theft from MtGox in 2011 and the efforts that this man undertook to fix it.  The tale explains the bitcoin bear market of 2011, the explosive rally of 2013, delayed fiat withdrawals, malled transactions, and a bot named Willy.

[americanpegasus]

You should both read this comment -> https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fe92x/im_ashley_barr_aka_adam_turner_the_first_mtgox/cto1383

I definitely think the next comment has to be true if the willy bot scenario is true https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fe92x/im_ashley_barr_aka_adam_turner_the_first_mtgox/ctor4f3

It's basically this, which was very insightfully written at the time:

Peter R’s Theory on the Collapse of Mt. Gox

TL/DR: A young man had a secret.  To keep it hidden, he kept digging until the hole was a billion dollars deep.  This is a speculative tale of a great bitcoin theft from MtGox in 2011 and the efforts that this man undertook to fix it.  The tale explains the bitcoin bear market of 2011, the explosive rally of 2013, delayed fiat withdrawals, malled transactions, and a bot named Willy.

 
 
Holy mother of God.  This is it.  This makes sense. 
 
I don't know why I suddenly and instantly believe this theory, but it fits all the pieces so perfectly. 
 

[Anon136]

A bit of a break out after a long flat consolidation period looks pretty bullish to me.

[iCEBREAKER]

Monero is the future.

darkcoin is the future

nope,

xcoin is the future.

(wayback machine engaged)

Dash, Dark, X, or whatever they're calling it this week is down while Monero is UP.

The shady Rube Goldberg budget nonsense "features" Dash is being bloated with may be responsible for this:

I'm in advanced discussions to sell a bunch of my DASH

I don't think Otoh will have much luck finding greater fools on which to unload his bags of DigitaltrASH.