[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

kenji's mental breakdown post was removed

He needs to book an appointment from http://dr.mindsci.com/
This guy is one of Monero Merchants.  

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[Melbustus]

I used to think some variant of Peter R's theory made the most sense. What I could never quite reconcile, though, was that there was no blockchain trail of stolen coins in 2011. So I figured that maybe the 2011 hack involved the hackers copying a bunch of code, finding exploits a while later (or having installed a backdoor), and then slowly bleeding Gox in relatively small amounts over the years.

One easy way to reconcile this is that the coins were not stolen but just lost: private keys erased with no usable backup, either by a hacker (vandalism) or by Karpeles himself (error).

Yeah - certainly possible.

But honestly, reading that Ashley Barr thread makes me think that the whole thing more likely has a far simpler explanation; ie, Karpeles just spent a few million of the fiat deposits that came into the bank account (which was his personal account(!)) frivolously, while crediting traders with BTC. Given prices at the time (mid-2011 through 2012), it would only have taken <$5m in lavish "corporate" spending to run up ~550,000BTC in liabilities. Unfortunately there's a long history of startups proving that it's not hard to blow a few million bucks on dumb stuff.

In general terms the idea he spent the money is plausible but the low level specifics don't work. He would have had to credit them with phoney fiat, not BTC. Without some other fraud, this would not affect the balance of BTC on the exchange.

Why couldn't he just have created fake BTC sell orders and let 'em get filled, thereby effectively crediting traders with positive BTC balances (comprised of bitcoin that never existed)? ....all the while spending the fiat out of the personal/corporate bank account?

Karpeles is suspected of manipulating data on the exchange’s computer system in 2013 to artificially create about $1 million in bitcoins.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/08/03/national/crime-legal/mtgox-ceo-admits-tweaking-account-faces-fresh-claim-misusing-8-9-million-deposits/#.Vb_kJnVGjUb

...some convoluted way to spend fiat while trying to make the books balance?

[smooth]

general terms the idea he spent the money is plausible but the low level specifics don't work. He would have had to credit them with phoney fiat, not BTC. Without some other fraud, this would not affect the balance of BTC on the exchange.

Why couldn't he just have created fake BTC sell orders and let 'em get filled, thereby effectively crediting traders with positive BTC balances (comprised of bitcoin that never existed)? ....all the while spending the fiat out of the personal/corporate bank account?

Sure he could have created fake BTC, but that would be another part of the "low level specifics" that would have to be added tp the story. Just spending the fiat on lots of overpriced coffee drinks wouldn't be enough to make the theory work.

In theory if this is the case you would be able to see fake BTC being created somewhere, not just fiat being spent out of his personal bank account, but of course we know that the records and systems being used there were a mess, so easier said than done (maybe not even possible).

[smooth]

With all this Gox talk I think it's time haul out some amusing pictures.

Maybe, but not here

The discussion about MtGox is mostly off topic (although I think it started as a comment about the direction of the Monero and Bitcoin markets) but at least there was some substance to it.

Anyway, let's get back to "Monero Speculation"

[s1gs3gv]

Speaking of Monero speculation, there doesn't seem to be a lot of speculation in Monero … just a nice steady coin with a thoughtful and focused development team with their eyes on the prize - private transactions and fungability. When the approaching 'Great Deflation' in crypto occurs, I predict Monero will be one of the last coins standing.

But I am just speculating …

[americanpegasus]

Bringing it back full circle I would say that all cryptocurrency exchanges, including our beloved Polo need to develop a "code of conduct" which includes such things as maintaining a certain % of funds in offline cold wallets, having separate business accounts for the exchange itself, and promising total and immediate transparency if any Hacks ever occur. 
 
This way a cryptocurrency exchange could simply say, "We are Crypto Trade Compliant" and you would know they met minimum standards for behavior. 

[hodlmybtc]

Got some bids filled around 0.00212

Hourly hidden bull divs:


4H with hidden bull div:

[s1gs3gv]

Bringing it back full circle I would say that all cryptocurrency exchanges, including our beloved Polo need to develop a "code of conduct" which includes such things as maintaining a certain % of funds in offline cold wallets, having separate business accounts for the exchange itself, and promising total and immediate transparency if any Hacks ever occur.  
  
This way a cryptocurrency exchange could simply say, "We are Crypto Trade Compliant" and you would know they met minimum standards for behavior.  

Claims and promises are worthless without an audit process by trusted 3rd parties. Are trusted 3rd parties relevant or possible in a decentralized trust-less economic system ?

[americanpegasus]

Speaking of Monero speculation, there doesn't seem to be a lot of speculation in Monero … just a nice steady coin with a thoughtful and focused development team with their eyes on the prize - private transactions and fungability. When the approaching 'Great Deflation' in crypto occurs, I predict Monero will be one of the last coins standing..

But I am just speculating …

 
  
Looking at the all time price chart the other day I realized that no one has really made any money on Monero yet...  Well, not crazy 10x or 100x money.  As fluffy has said, the primary motivation for this is to be a currency, not get rich, but if we are lucky enough to be the premier private global ledger then we will need to be "inflated" enough to be able to send a billion dollars or two across the blockchain without any severe volatility occurring from someone buying in or selling out.  
  
That can only mean one thing, and the greedy human in me likes it.  The philanthropist is keeping him on a tight leash though, and thinking of things like Job Centers for the homeless and pay-what-you-want restaurants.

[jehst]

I can't trade on Polo because I'm a New York resident and we have until Aug. 8th to get out of Polo. Funny thing is that the guy who owns Polo is also from New York. Shapeshift also blocks NY users but that's easily circumvented.

[vokain]

Speaking of Monero speculation, there doesn't seem to be a lot of speculation in Monero … just a nice steady coin with a thoughtful and focused development team with their eyes on the prize - private transactions and fungability. When the approaching 'Great Deflation' in crypto occurs, I predict Monero will be one of the last coins standing..

But I am just speculating …

 
  
Looking at the all time price chart the other day I realized that no one has really made any money on Monero yet...  Well, not crazy 10x or 100x money.  As fluffy has said, the primary motivation for this is to be a currency, not get rich, but if we are lucky enough to be the premier private global ledger then we will need to be "inflated" enough to be able to send a billion dollars or two across the blockchain without any severe volatility occurring from someone buying in or selling out.  
  
That can only mean one thing, and the greedy human in me likes it.  The philanthropist is keeping him on a tight leash though, and thinking of things like Job Centers for the homeless and pay-what-you-want restaurants.

Early miners?

[smooth]

Speaking of Monero speculation, there doesn't seem to be a lot of speculation in Monero … just a nice steady coin with a thoughtful and focused development team with their eyes on the prize - private transactions and fungability. When the approaching 'Great Deflation' in crypto occurs, I predict Monero will be one of the last coins standing..

But I am just speculating …

 
 
Looking at the all time price chart the other day I realized that no one has really made any money on Monero yet...  Well, not crazy 10x or 100x money.  As fluffy has said, the primary motivation for this is to be a currency, not get rich, but if we are lucky enough to be the premier private global ledger then we will need to be "inflated" enough to be able to send a billion dollars or two across the blockchain without any severe volatility occurring from someone buying in or selling out.   
 
That can only mean one thing, and the greedy human in me likes it.  The philanthropist is keeping him on a tight leash though, and thinking of things like Job Centers for the homeless and pay-what-you-want restaurants.

Early miners?

Very early miners made some (I was one of them), and some very early buyers too, but the price and hash rate of the coin skyrocketed pretty fast, so both were short-lived opportunities and didn't involve that many coins.

Within two weeks of launch it already traded at 0.0017 BTC, and BTC was more like 500 USD, making that a loss today (and for most of the history) in USD terms. (old OTC thread)

dga and his miner optimizing effort made about 100-200K USD, I think (I'm not sure he's ever said how much they made exactly but that was the impression I got).

If you traded on the swings well you could have made a bit of money, especially on the Mintpal pump up to 0.01.

But it is true that no BIG money has been made on this coin yet.

[CryptoSporidium]

How important is crypto kingdom to future success of Monero?

[jehst]

How important is crypto kingdom to future success of Monero?

XMR is virtually the only coin besides bitcoin with any non-speculative use. XMR can do well without Crypto Kingdom, but CK helps to distinguish it from other coins and it may be the reason that XMR will pull ahead of the pack.

[kenji]

crypto kingdom is like the silkroud for monero

[wpalczynski]

crypto kingdom is like the silkroud for monero

Not quite.

[dreamspark]

Speaking of Monero speculation, there doesn't seem to be a lot of speculation in Monero … just a nice steady coin with a thoughtful and focused development team with their eyes on the prize - private transactions and fungability. When the approaching 'Great Deflation' in crypto occurs, I predict Monero will be one of the last coins standing..

But I am just speculating …

 
 
Looking at the all time price chart the other day I realized that no one has really made any money on Monero yet...  Well, not crazy 10x or 100x money.  As fluffy has said, the primary motivation for this is to be a currency, not get rich, but if we are lucky enough to be the premier private global ledger then we will need to be "inflated" enough to be able to send a billion dollars or two across the blockchain without any severe volatility occurring from someone buying in or selling out.   
 
That can only mean one thing, and the greedy human in me likes it.  The philanthropist is keeping him on a tight leash though, and thinking of things like Job Centers for the homeless and pay-what-you-want restaurants.

Early miners?

Very early miners made some (I was one of them), and some very early buyers too, but the price and hash rate of the coin skyrocketed pretty fast, so both were short-lived opportunities and didn't involve that many coins.

Within two weeks of launch it already traded at 0.0017 BTC, and BTC was more like 500 USD, making that a loss today (and for most of the history) in USD terms. (old OTC thread)

dga and his miner optimizing effort made about 100-200K USD, I think (I'm not sure he's ever said how much they made exactly but that was the impression I got).

If you traded on the swings well you could have made a bit of money, especially on the Mintpal pump up to 0.01.

But it is true that no BIG money has been made on this coin yet.

Yes and no. As an early miner on ec2 I certainly made good money. At one point one of the miners had over half the hashrate and a quarter of a mil ec2 bill. The same miner also sold me 30k+ coins at 0.0008 when cryptonote exchange dipped that low. Playing the several swings from 0.001-0.002 that we had plus offloading a nice amount during the mintpal pump has certainly made it a profitable coin to say the least. Big money as in millions ? Probably not. Big money as in 10's or 100's of thousands. Sure. Also depends on if you held btc or cashed out to fiat. 30k coins at 0.0008 to 0.008-0.01 was approx 24btc - 200+btc. Selling that profit at $500 per btc = $100,000.

[jehst]

Speaking of Monero speculation, there doesn't seem to be a lot of speculation in Monero … just a nice steady coin with a thoughtful and focused development team with their eyes on the prize - private transactions and fungability. When the approaching 'Great Deflation' in crypto occurs, I predict Monero will be one of the last coins standing..

But I am just speculating …

 
  
Looking at the all time price chart the other day I realized that no one has really made any money on Monero yet...  Well, not crazy 10x or 100x money.  As fluffy has said, the primary motivation for this is to be a currency, not get rich, but if we are lucky enough to be the premier private global ledger then we will need to be "inflated" enough to be able to send a billion dollars or two across the blockchain without any severe volatility occurring from someone buying in or selling out.  
  
That can only mean one thing, and the greedy human in me likes it.  The philanthropist is keeping him on a tight leash though, and thinking of things like Job Centers for the homeless and pay-what-you-want restaurants.

Early miners?

Very early miners made some (I was one of them), and some very early buyers too, but the price and hash rate of the coin skyrocketed pretty fast, so both were short-lived opportunities and didn't involve that many coins.

Within two weeks of launch it already traded at 0.0017 BTC, and BTC was more like 500 USD, making that a loss today (and for most of the history) in USD terms. (old OTC thread)

dga and his miner optimizing effort made about 100-200K USD, I think (I'm not sure he's ever said how much they made exactly but that was the impression I got).

If you traded on the swings well you could have made a bit of money, especially on the Mintpal pump up to 0.01.

But it is true that no BIG money has been made on this coin yet.

Yes and no. As an early miner on ec2 I certainly made good money. At one point one of the miners had over half the hashrate and a quarter of a mil ec2 bill. The same miner also sold me 30k+ coins at 0.0008 when cryptonote exchange dipped that low. Playing the several swings from 0.001-0.002 that we had plus offloading a nice amount during the mintpal pump has certainly made it a profitable coin to say the least. Big money as in millions ? Probably not. Big money as in 10's or 100's of thousands. Sure. Also depends on if you held btc or cashed out to fiat. 30k coins at 0.0008 to 0.008-0.01 was approx 24btc - 200+btc. Selling that profit at $500 per btc = $100,000.

The post that you're quoting already acknowledges that people have made up to 100-200k. He's simply not considering that to be BIG money.

[binaryFate]

The post that you're quoting already acknowledges that people have made up to 100-200k. He's simply not considering that to be BIG money.

There cannot be many people in the same ballpark as dga, because he controlled for a few weeks a good half of the network. Dga's profits are most likely by far an upper bound.

[jehst]

The post that you're quoting already acknowledges that people have made up to 100-200k. He's simply not considering that to be BIG money.

There cannot be many people in the same ballpark as dga, because he controlled for a few weeks a good half of the network. Dga's profits are most likely by far an upper bound.

Correct.