lol. Bears still have shitty arguments! Bears simply have nothing other than "yo this is a bubble because it was a bubble bubble bubblespeak bubble." Maxing out technical indicators means jack shit in a deep bull trend, which Bitcoin is undergoing. I became even more bullish when I saw cypher was getting avalon s (  ). tell me more about this deep bull trend. hint: indicators give you insight as to how 'deep' it really is. i saw the rally losing steam before the price tested the bottom support. it's finally broken through. good luck bulls. |
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checkmate, bulls!DAILY scale: -===-  -===- the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold. market status: consolidating bull trendreversal risk: higha completed MACD crossover should confirm: -===-  -===- -arepo
if you profit from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
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This doesn't make sense at all.
+1 this is BS but, the down trend is happening... no worries tho, it will go bust the all time high sometime next year for sure (provided nothing major happens ex. hard fork or something..) I do not see down trend. I see 20+% up trend. (this mean: next 2 weeks will price be attacking $30 in worst case :-), or BTC will sell in range $35-37 ) denial [see investor emotion cycle] this is a good sign, bears  |
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So what's the point of even creating a thread like this?
I mean, the way I see it, there are two outcomes.
a) You're right, and no one really cares much, but I guess you can claim some sort of fame for calling the hand in advance.
b) You're wrong and you end up looking like a troll/bear/ass (add any negative adjective)
So, I see the rewards not being as great and I see the potential of being made fun of....
IMHO
Or bluffing. Basically: "if we make some noise about price bubbles, it will counteract other people's exuberance*. This will make the average sentiment seem more balanced, which may confuse some people and make them feel more confident about buying more bitcoins at a high price when they might have otherwise been more cautious." Examples of Bitcoin exuberance/fanboi-ism: - BTC is finally catching up to fair value because Wordpress, Reddit, and Mega!
- I believe that the mining reward halving magically puts pressure on the exchange rate until it doubles!
- The next 10 corporate adoption announcements should be priced in before they happen!
+1,000,000 it seems that every post these days is someone talking their wallet, or a carefully crafted sentiment flag. maybe traders are starting to get anxious....?  |
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No, Its a terrible idea. Don't end up being a bag holder like those people that bought at $32, 2 years ago.
evolve, you for some reason forget, again, that those "bag holders" from 2 years ago can now close their position at (almost) no loss if they so desire. 2 years is a medium term investment. And also, according to wikipedia, The term bagholder is an informal slang term used in U.S. financial markets to refer to the shareholders left holding shares of worthless stocks. Who is holding worthless anything here? So, that just means that whatever you are saying is just completely wrong and makes zero sense. Think about it next time. Yeah, and I'm sorry you are not in on the ride, just don't post wrong information and we'll be kind to you. We need funny crash believers here. I love how anyone with a difference of opinion on this forum is labeled a "troll".
Quite the little hugbox/echo chamber you got here.
Only because bears have shitty arguments. I wonder why the bears who are really convinced don't short the crap out of the current "bubble"? It's an opportunity of a lifetime, you can triple your available money easily by shorting from 30 to single digits!
all you guys are idiots. @piramida, you actually said: "So, that just means that whatever you are saying is just completely wrong and makes zero sense." why the hell are you so mad? @humanitee, you're contributing to the echo chamber. you either haven't been around long enough or have forgotten how sentiment affects the attitudes on the forum through very, very strong groupthink. "bears have shitty arguments" is such a stupid thing to say. markets go up, markets go down. @piramida, if you thought for 2 seconds you'd understand why people aren't shorting the hell out of bitcoin. nobody knows for sure what will happen next. in fact, YOU DON'T KNOW it won't plummet to $10 in the next five minutes. but shorting is incredibly more risky than holding. and @evolve, i know you're a bear. i think we are overbought too. but the buying pressure we saw after the last sell-off was incredible. try to tone down the gloom and doom it just sounds like you're trying to herd lemmings. all in all, these forums shouldn't be bulls vs. bears but rather open, unbiased discussion. put your damn wallets away and let's talk seriously. |
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There isn't a diminishing supply. Bitcoins are made so that they ever increase in supply.
No. supplyinflation rate diminishes short-term when block reward halves; increases short-term when network hashing capability is added (when power is added significantly, anyway). If you meant the TOTAL supply increases as time goes on, then yes, it asymptoticly approaches 21 million. But approaching an asymptote implies decreased acceleration. So any implied acceleration in your statement of "increase in supply" should be quickly quashed. FTFY the supply of bitcoin is increasing at an asymptotically decreasing rate. |
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Are there any studies that prove that technical analysis works?
There are a small number of traders that make money trading. However, the smaller this number gets - the more likely it is due to luck. If you have 1/32 or more of traders making money in a zero-sum (or negative sum after the fees) market for five years in a row - then that would be evidence that analysis can work.
Whether or not I believe in technical analysis, there are other people who do and it will affect their actions and thus affect the market. Now where it gets tricky is that you don't know what indicators people are following, so I stick to fundamentals (aka value).
Even in that case, it's well within the realm of possibility. Try getting a hold of Leonard Mlodinow's book " The Drunkard's Walk, How Randomness Affects Our Lives". There's an entire chapter devoted to day traders/TA people... and it's bunk  there are many cases against it. but the trick is that one has to prove the absence of time-correlations in price data. proving a negative is notoriously difficult. |
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It's probably not easy as a bear on these forums. Keep at it, we need the bears to keep us sane!
got that right but the appreciation is appreciated |
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Nope. Just watching a bubble be a bubble. The bubble was the summer of 2011. This growth has been sustained and appears to be sustainable as more people adopt Bitcoin. +1 the hype is the same, the market feels different. more mature. the selloffs aren't causing panic. the buying pressure is strong and consistent. what will happen when the influx of new money stops, though? |
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I don't understand how people can "sell their whole stash" while believing (at least partly) that bitcoin is a viable money. That's just a gamble that "the correction" will come sooner than later... way too risky, right before we potentially reach a new high. Why not sell only half the coins?
ah right. that is very risky indeed. it's like going all-in. all-out |
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My two key points are that the information provided by a moving average is out-of-date on the day it is computed, and that when comparing two moving averages shifted by different amounts, the result is just noise.
On the other hand, if you compute the MACD without shifting the averages, you would get exactly the information you wrote about above, but it would still be out-of-date and no longer useful. Actually, I don't think this is completely true because it assumes there is no "momentum", which has been shown to exist. Anyway, my suggestion to TA adherents is to fix the moving average, throw out all the current nonsense, and try again.
[emphasis mine] can you explain why you think historical data is useless? also -- PRICE AND VOLUME ARE LAGGING INDICATORS THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS IS TRUE MOMENTUM DOESN'T EXIST TRUE RANDOMNESS IS THE NEXT MARKET ACTION. this is all i hear in this thread, and, let me tell you, that's bunk. -=- @Tripper, things aren't looking good for my prognostications, i do concede. i still believe we need a significant correction but my timing was off. most of the indicators did indeed plummet, but then bounced right off of the zero-line instead of going negative, which points to much, much stronger support than i had accounted for. i'm not surprised though. like i pointed out above, the last time we had a downside breakout after a triangle consolidation it didn't spark a downtrend either. the market just consolidated and kept going up. by the time i last did analysis, the downward pressure was tapering and i downgraded the reversal risk to "medium" in my thread. we hadn't broken out of any trendlines and the selloffs weren't causing panic. and then we jumped another dollar and a half. so good on you. you made a correct prediction, yourself! after the triangle you called trend continuation. keep up the good analysis, whatever techniques you're using  |
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Protip from Milkshake: Long BTC forever with as much leverage as you can get. Doubled my bitcoins  be careful. don't let greed blind you. learn from the OP; the flipside happens as well. |
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I don't know, I sold my entire stash at 29.50. Feeling pretty good about myself right now, and was enjoying watching the price drop during the day. But now it's creeping back up. What do?
why are you here? what kind of attitude is this?  this is what scares me. if you're not a bull, you're liable to be skinned alive these days. this isn't discussion. the bullish sentiment is at obnoxious peaks and yet the price keeps going up... maybe all the new bitcoin users don't frequent the forum. this whole thing feels much worse than the original bubble. |
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why is it so difficult to see why this, too, has a negative impact on the adoption of bitcoin? this is all i've been trying to say this entire thread.
Because it makes zero sense: Hey people, we have a problem!! Many people will want to use Bitcoin so bitcoins are going to become very valuable therefor no one will want to use it!!!11 I mean, I don't know what more to say to this. Furthermore, this has been addressed in many places by competent economists, and the people who start these kinds of threads are rarely familiar with the arguments against their ideas, and they never address them. No homework has been done first. People just show up and claim they are seeing something that nobody else is seeing, and then get upset and call names when noone agrees with them. And my ignore list just grows. hazek's recaps of 'my argument' have consistently been strawmen. i'm convinced he doesn't even read what i write. there is some predatory speculation going on right now, and it's being fueled by the sentiment that bitcoin is supposed to go up, up, up. this kind of behavior scares me. he snipped the quote in just the right place to make it look like i've been beating the same old deflationary spiral dead horse. and it makes me a little sad that you're assuming all of these things about me just because i've taken an unpopular opinion. it's dangerous to tend to think that people who disagree with you have rarely done their homework. i also probably don't even disagree with you. deflationary currencies are perfectly fine, no fundamental problem about them. this thread was in response to the then 500%, now 600% growth in the price in the past 12 months. this is unprecedented since the early deflation rallies from pennies to dollars that led to the bubble. to recap better, i'm trying to say: SOMETHING'S GOING ON. i have a negative feeling about it. if you have a positive feeling, please share here. thanks |
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this thing really is starting to look like it might roll over
still too much noise to say. the bear signals on the daily chart are not strong enough, and we're still within strong support/resistance trendlines. -===-  -===- if you notice, the same triangle pattern with bearish breakout happened around the first of February and yet we continued the uptrend thereafter. still could just be a consolidating bull market letting off some steam. nothing conclusive yet... status: correctionreversal risk: medium-arepo
if you profit from me, help keep it free!
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for a beautiful example of time correlations in price behavior, i can point you to a recent 'correct prediction' i made, this one calling the first knife that stalled the rally:
Yeah that giant green candle was totally a "stall."  the green candle after the warning knife was an overcorrection. this led to a deep consolidation -- a flattening of price in a familiar triangle pattern. it did indeed stall the rally. The chart above speaks for itself. What do you guys see?
i see, after said warning knife, a "bullish" triangle that defies expectation and breaks out downside [marked below]. do you just see the overall trend? because if you missed the significance of the recent action, your eyes aren't sharp enough. also, price data by itself isn't very elucidating. this is where other indicators come in. -===- -===- if you notice, there was another such downside breakout after a "bullish" triangle around the first of February [not market] after which the trend did resume, but the reversal signals weren't so strong then. -=- I know that TA is bunk for two reasons.
First, if it weren't bunk then it would be easy to find information on how and why it works. Oh, there are plenty of principles and generalizations and magic numbers, but nothing concrete. And there are lots of information on how to do TA, but nobody explains how it works. If it were for-real, this information would exist everywhere, since it is so fundamental to the religion. For example, in TA when two moving averages cross, that is a "signal". I challenge any believer to explain the math behind this. Even the TA bible, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John C. Murphy, spends 20 pages on the "philosophy" of TA and 500 pages on how to do the computations.
this is rife with preconceived bias. you treat technical analysis like a religion, and in some ways it is. here's an analogy: what makes buddhists less annoying than christians? they make fewer blatantly scientifically false claims. like the man-in-the-sky view of god, elliot waves and candlestick interpretation is ruined by bias and is barely scientific. buddhism, however, is much more subtle, like the calculus involved in tracking the momentum of price. magic numbers and generalizations are not good analysis. the above chart is a perfect example; standard triangle pattern rules state that an ascending triangle consolidation during an uptrend tends to break out upside, continuing the trend. this failed to happen. these general rules fail because they are not sensitive to the nuanced context of markets. are we overdue for a correction? has there been good/bad news recently? is it the weekend? price behaves stochastically, not deterministically. any rule that says "for this price pattern, this happens" is bound to fail. i think the key issue with your point here is that many so-called "believers" of technical analysis aren't very good at it at all, and don't understand why it works. this is why there is so little information regarding this particular matter. you really need a good understanding of stochastic calculus to intuitively grasp price behavior, and very very few people do. i barely understand it, but i understand its principles and i use them to separate the 'good' TA from the bunk. i will concede, however, that there is a LOT of bunk. but there are a few good apples amongst the fermenting mass also, markets are anti-inductive. this prevents any well-recognized 'rule' from being exploited. this may also contribute to the lack of documentation for concrete, well-defined, provably successful techniques. i would also advise the use of proprietary indicators for any serious analysis for this reason. Second, as I have pointed out in a previous thread, the moving average is a fundamental part of TA, yet it is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator. That is, a moving average tells you what happened in the past, not what is happening now, and certainly not what will happen in the future. The information in a moving average that is calculated today is already out-of-date. In an attempt to get around this fundamental flaw, TA believers shift the graphs into the future. That's why you never see the averages line up with the actual prices. Furthermore, when they compare moving averages (MACD, for example), they shift them by different amounts and this creates noise, which they interpret as signals.
this point has been addressed before. i even used the MACD as an example: by your definition, all indicators are lagging indicators. the MACD goes 'up and down' as an echo to price but there's more to it. sometimes the price makes new highs but the MACD fails to. other times, the opposite happens. the crossovers of the slower and faster moving averages also represent information about the rate of change in price compared to its historical rate of change. these are all very important observations. indicators do much, much more than mimic price movement.
in other words, the value of the moving average is a lagging value but its graphical representation is rich in information comparing historical momentum to present momentum, which is useful data. -=- Look at the daily RSI chart. In the last month, a crash comes the following day if and only if RSI reaches 89. A pattern repeating 3 times in a row is more convincing to me. I'll probably unload a little bit the next time and try to catch the knife.
good! this is technical analysis. i'm glad you identified a time-correlation in price. they are quite useful. |
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And your down seems, at best, to be a bit of a down, a bit of an up, a bit sideways, and a jiggle.
geez, you guys are hard to please. before my call, the price was above $27. now it is below $27. furthermore, the very next action after my call was straight down. if this doesn't count, i don't know what does. That means you have about a 50 percent chance of being right. The evidence you talk about isn't evidence at all. try 11%, as this would be my third consecutive correct call, and Tripper already defined the simplistic criteria of up, down, sideways [(1/3)^3 or (1/9)]. i already posted about this, and then quoted it again later because everyone kept ignoring it. regardless, correct calls don't count as evidence. you're right. we went over this point already, also. but that means making incorrect calls doesn't count as counter-evidence either. you can't have it both ways. the "evidence" for TA is that time correlations do actually appear in the charts. it's just stochastic, not deterministic. this means that, for instance, if an indicator is saying 'overbought', the price is more likely to move down than up (given that the indicator has been shown to 'work' for that market. that is, the indicator properly captures some hidden information about the price behavior), not that this move will definitely happen. for a beautiful example of time correlations in price behavior, i can point you to a recent 'correct prediction' i made, this one calling the first knife that stalled the rally:  the last time we re-entered the overbought (red) after crossing the centerline but not reaching blue, there was a significant correction.  -===- do you see how that works? and @Tripper, as for further analysis about where i think the downtrend will stop ($21 was really just a guess), i'm waiting for the tremors to die down a little from that last big movement (DOWN, by the way ) to reassess. the data is too noisy right at this moment. you can follow along in my 'reversal' thread which has the rest of the analysis as well, as that's where i will be updating. thanks for being open-minded, at least |
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"While Bitcoin’s critics are wary of it lack of commodity backing, its main advantage is its decentralized model. This decentralization makes it arguably the most resilient digital currency currently available."
Well yes, it's an advantage but it doesn't tell the whole story. For once I have yet to see a completely decentralized system of any kind, I would appreciate if if it were to exist some day. Bitcoin is centralized at the source code and it is centralized in terms of wealth distribution, other system may be more centralized in more different kinds however that is not the only issue: and don't forget the mountain of gox! |
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Wait a minute, are you saying that today's brief dip was a correct call for the correction you predicted? I thought you said that the dip before the weekend was supposed to be smaller temporary dip and today we were supposed to have a real correction to a lower level.
yes, i suspect that this move is far from over and that the 'real' correction is starting. we should settle into a downtrend and continue until we bounce off of a strong support like $21. but tripper gave me very simple criteria: [snip]
Make some TA predictions in advance so we can be in awe of your future predicting abilities. It's easy, all you have to do is say up, down or trade in a range and there will be a good chance that you will pick the right one. 1 of 3. TA is bunk. If it's not, prove it.
i called down. the next move was down. |
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You have to do better than 1 correct call. In a previous post I said that there was a chance you could be correct. Let's see how your future calls pan out. I'm not holding my breath. three. three correct calls. but i'm not holding my breath as far as winning you over because you've already demonstrated that you weren't actually looking for evidence and it won't affect your predetermined opinion anyway. as for Until that Analysis can tell you that such and such group is going to announce bitcoin tomorrow to a few million people... its always going to be imprecise. It is trying to predict an unpredictable path. To be able to predict it, you need every single datapoint involved with the situation, because all it takes is one single announcement, or one single guy deciding "today is the day I cash out." and it will throw everything completely off course.
However A technical analysis is great at plotting history.
i've already written a response for this: this is a terrible misconception that just about everyone has. charts are not meant to predict the influence of news, but rather make observations about market forces like the behavior of an asset that is overbought.
as price goes up, the incentive to take profit goes up. if an asset were incredibly overbought and an influx of new money began flowing into it, market forces may prevent the 'obvious' rally from happening because selling pressure would increase in proportion.
kind of like what is happening right now, in spite of the reddit announcement.
charts will never predict single movements by large actors, or anything like that, and no one is claiming that they have the power to.
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