Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rolling]

If I seem dismissive, it's because some things are self-evident and I don't know how to explain it to you. There is not enough space for insignificant transactions on the main chain. Expanding the block size in only a very temporary solution. If Bitcoin is successful, smaller transactions will be priced out. No scaling solution changes the fact that the "main" chain will not be used by regular people for small transactions. You have to compete for the limited resource (the most secure store of wealth ever created). That naturally means higher fees. This is not my ideology, this is just basic supply and demand.

Bitcoin is not a Utopian or Libertarian dream. It is open to anyone, not everyone, and that necessarily means, people with more money will force people with little money off of the "main chain". This is not my ideology, this is just how the world works.

You seem very upset with how the world works but Bitcoin is not the solution to that and no amount of raging on this forum will change reality.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Fiat savers REKT.

Bullish?

[ivomm]

what were and what are the main counter arguments vs bitcoin? when it was new, everyone thought it was a stupid idea. it was said that bitcoin
[edited out]

fast forward to present: what are the current arguments of bitcoin critics:

-is used by criminals and therefore


(please add to the list the arguments missing here)

what is surprising is that all counter arguments are from years ago. bitcoin is running for a decade now. the critics had enough time to dig all through it and come up with really well thought arguments. but they didn't. all those smart economists, all the gifted shitcoin proponents, all the scared bankers - all they do is echoing  the same old arguments from years before.

endeavors of this magnitude, with millions of people deploying billions of dollars into the project usually come with a shitload of trade-offs and compromises and mis-allocation of capital. with bitcoin even the hardest critics can't come up with new arguments.

this is a bullish sign.

few understand this.

My favourite is: the price is manipulated. As if the stocks aren't. lol

Regarding criminals:
Leaked documents reveal some of the world’s biggest banks allowed criminals to move dirty money around the world https://t.co/ZnHwIZNdRJ?amp=1
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1307726541783171073

The whole fiat system is one big ponzi. Madoff ponzi is one of the brightest examples how helpless are SEC and CFTC. Merging banks and printing money can delay the collapse of the world economy, but for how long and at what price? We know what happened with the purchase power of the dollar in the last century. Let's see what it will be say in 20 years: 25% is too optimistic IMO. Satoshi knew this and created a decentralized internet money with a fixed supply, which halves each 4 years.

Banks and governments are scared and they try both to manipulate the price downwards and to make obstacles for the people to get into. For example, since the 2017 bull run, the banks in EU were so scared, that many of them banned transactions to and from Bitcoin exchanges. However, in most countries there are still enough banks that don't do that. On the contrary, some of them even offer their clients  easy trading and holding, like Bitwala.

Regarding governments, only the most stupid communits rulers think they can ban Bitcoin. It is like banning Internet. Only North Korea can do that. But I think we are living in different times, when more and more institutions and closed markets are involved into bitcoin - futures, hedge companies, etc.,  the list is endless. A ban on Bitcoin for USA would mean collapse of those companies which are listed on Wall Street, hence causing a major financial crisis. Even imbeciles like Trump and Mnuchin won't do it of course. Bitcoin will always find ways around the obstacles, like Chinas pathetic bans. So nowadays, the hodlers have nothing to worry about. The basics are solid and the future is bright. Everything else is just FUD.

[AlcoHoDL]

Fiat savers REKT.

Bullish?

Wow, bonds & ISAs @ 0.01%? Who would put their wealth at the hands of a bank with such low rates?

I remember a long time ago I had an ISA which paid more than 5% interest. I was using it as a small second salary back then. Looks like we'll soon be paying banks to hold our own money.

Goodbye fiat, hello Bitcoin!

[Wekkel]

[...]

Regarding criminals:
Leaked documents reveal some of the world’s biggest banks allowed criminals to move dirty money around the world https://t.co/ZnHwIZNdRJ?amp=1
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1307726541783171073

I've not been reading further than the articles indicating the leak of bank's internal documents on this point, but I think the key is the following:

Banks use them to report suspicious behaviour but they are not proof of wrongdoing or crime.

'Not proof of wrongdoing and crime'

So the documents revealed are only documents used to report suspicious behaviour. Whether the behaviour is illicit or not, is a different question. The documents in questions supposedly were only meant to inform authorities about potential money laundering, giving authorities essential insight on what is happening and where.

And even if the behaviour found is illicit, the question is whether the bank is supposed to find out or the government agencies tasked with preventing money laundering.

If the banks are supposed to do so in given circumstances, there is a thick grey line between knowing without doubt that the account is used for illicit purposes and suspecting that the account is used for illicit purposes. And of course government agencies will look at these cases in hindsight, knowing a lot more and having a lot more information channels and authority available to investigation than the banks at the moment the banks look into it.

In all fairness, I think banks are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to money laundering.

If they would simply block an account when they suspect illicit transactions, we would see many, many user complaints and law suits directed at banks by customers and consumer organisations. If, on the other hand, they are more relaxed about blocking accounts, the public moans if - in hindsight - money appeared to have been laundered via a bank account.

You can't have both so what do you choose?

[machasm]

This correlation with legacy markets is god damn annoying. I don't even need to check the Bitcoin price any more, just check nasdaq, s&p, gold.

When is supply finally going to be overrun so that we can decouple from this bullshit.

Yeah I feel you brother.
What worries me is that if investors are getting into bitcoin (which seems to be the case with recent news such as Tudor Jones et al), why are they doing so?
Is it as a hedge against the current financial system or are they just seeing it as another plaything designed to trade against to build up even more $.
The way bitcoin seems to be correlating with the stock markets recently makes me believe that it is the latter.
If they believe that bitcoin is the Ark against the impending flood caused by the financial crash then I believe that the correlation to the stock market should be inversely proportional.

Maybe they just need time to wake up to that fact?

[somac.]

This correlation with legacy markets is god damn annoying. I don't even need to check the Bitcoin price any more, just check nasdaq, s&p, gold.

When is supply finally going to be overrun so that we can decouple from this bullshit.

Yeah I feel you brother.
What worries me is that if investors are getting into bitcoin (which seems to be the case with recent news such as Tudor Jones et al), why are they doing so?
Is it as a hedge against the current financial system or are they just seeing it as another plaything designed to trade against to build up even more $.
The way bitcoin seems to be correlating with the stock markets recently makes me believe that it is the latter.
If they believe that bitcoin is the Ark against the impending flood caused by the financial crash then I believe that the correlation to the stock market should be inversely proportional.

Maybe they just need time to wake up to that fact?

Well I am seeing charts showing that percentage coins hodled are at all time highs, so I think it must at least be some of each type of investor.

I'm sure that eventually buyers will overwhelm the supply, and large investors will be a part of this, but my god it is taking a long time. I mean, with the amount of fraud, corruption, poor governance, and so on, it blows my mind that we aren't higher. Bitcoin is literally the only way to preserve your wealth from those things I mentioned and more, yet people still aren't rushing in.

Imagine if Bitcoin was around prior to the war, would the price of it have gone up as the Jews and other persecuted groups wanted to preserve and flee with their wealth. Or would it have just done nothing like it is now and linking itself to the corrupt legacy markets. When it comes to your wealth, the CBs and Govs right now are as bad as the NAZIs and it seems people are just happy to give everything to them. It's nuts.



 

[qwizzie]

I wonder if this is one of those attempts to close the CME Bitcoin futures gap (currently at $9,600 and expires the last friday of the contract month --> 25th of September 2020)

[somac.]

I wonder if this is one of those attempts to close the CME Bitcoin futures gap (currently at $9,600 and expires the last friday of the contract month --> 25th of September 2020)

I really hope not, I never want to see 9000s again.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $10,550

May be it's not fun for some but it is time to HODL! They are saying bitcoin might break $10,400 support. F them!

[machasm]

Maybe it's not as bad as it looks?
Is there enough liquidity on these exchanges to soak up relatively medium sized dumps?
(I probably don't know what I am talking about here so please let me know if I am screwing up, just thinking out loud really).
So the question is even though there may be demand how many bitcoins need to be dumped to move the market by $500 or so?
Maybe now with the value of Bitcoin being what it is, we don't need too many dumped before we feel an impact?
So even a small to medium dump will result in quite a significant fall in price?
This leads to the next question.
Will there ever come a point that dumping 1000 BTC onto the open market doesn't have a significant impact on,price?

[Cryptotourist]

OK my brothers, this is where we hodl them, this is where we fight. This is where $10k dies.

[strawbs]

This correlation with legacy markets is god damn annoying. I don't even need to check the Bitcoin price any more, just check nasdaq, s&p, gold.

When is supply finally going to be overrun so that we can decouple from this bullshit.

Yup, it certainly is a little tiresome. It used to be interesting to try to find a reason for a sudden drop or rise, trawling through various outlets to see which theories were most likely. And entertaining to read some of the more far-fetched and grasping theories. But now, as you say, it's nearly always tied to the S&P et al.

[cAPSLOCK]

Presented with no comment:

On track...  This weekend I think:

Hmm.  We did not quite come up as far as I had hoped before the next dip... The right shoulder looks a little sad and hunched, but let's see if this is the right shoulder...

[ivomm]

Maybe it's not as bad as it looks?
Is there enough liquidity on these exchanges to soak up relatively medium sized dumps?
(I probably don't know what I am talking about here so please let me know if I am screwing up, just thinking out loud really).
So the question is even though there may be demand how many bitcoins need to be dumped to move the market by $500 or so?
Maybe now with the value of Bitcoin being what it is, we don't need too many dumped before we feel an impact?
So even a small to medium dump will result in quite a significant fall in price?
This leads to the next question.
Will there ever come a point that dumping 1000 BTC onto the open market doesn't have a significant impact on,price?

It depends how and where the dump takes place. If we are talking about OTC dump, this sum won't affect the price. OTC desks sell regularly small amounts and not below the negotiated price. I doubt even 10K-50K BTC would affect the price with such selling. If we are talking about a whale-manipulator, then we should check the Bitstamp order book. This exchange is the least liquid, so if there are any manipulations, we should expect them there. Currently 747 BTC have to be sold to lower the price to 10290. How this will work out for a whale is another question. Playing with Bitmex or any other futures exchange is a bit tricky  and there is a big chance of something to go wrong. If for example he opens a big leverage short position but the exchange is down or some other whale buys and recovers the price, then the loss will be tremendous. So I personally don't believe there are any such manipulations recently.

But we have another problem, which is the main cause of these recent drops. The problem is called Binance and its high frequency trading. The volume of this exchange is 5 times bigger than the next exchange Coinbase. There are too many weak hands there - addicted losers, who easily register losses until there is nothing left to lose. We make fun of those n00bs who buy high and sell low, but there are a lot of them, like the casinos full of lost souls. During the long 9K sideways, we can sum up the total percentage of price drops. It is quite close to 100% (not to mention the high leverage longs liquidated much earlier). Hence, we can easily deduct that these extremely weak hands lost their capital and when the real pump started, they were nowhere around to stop it. Remember, these guys are addicted, so they invested new fiat between 11K and 12K, and now we are counting their totall losses again. It is getting near to 100% again, so we can expect a new big pump in the coming weeks.

[xhomerx10]

Things aren't going well when you have to write I Don't Do Kids on your forehead

 Yeah that would be quite strange but if you're referring to Martin Lewis's forehead, the words are - I don't do ads

[qwizzie]

$10,360 Free falling

[Torque]

Also important is to pass the "live together" test. It's all nice and sweet when you only meet to go out and have fun. Only when you live under the same roof will you know if you can really be together.

This x 1 billion!!

Regarding criminals:
Leaked documents reveal some of the world’s biggest banks allowed criminals to move dirty money around the world https://t.co/ZnHwIZNdRJ?amp=1
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1307726541783171073

Gee, wonder why ol' Warren Buffett dropped all of his bank stocks earlier this year? He couldn't have been tipped off, right?  /s  

[VB1001]

"Hal Finney" Sun, 11 Jan 2009

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

https://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg10152.html

Don't rule out any pricing option, look what they were talking about in 2009.

Important clause highlighted.  He obviously wasn’t looking into a crystal ball and predicting that.

This is why influential people sometimes become wary of any type of “what if?”, thinking-aloud types of brainstorming in public.

I do not mean a prediction from Hal, from the crystal ball, the "experiment" was in the testing phase but HF already anticipated that with a limited supply if BTC was successful the price would increase exponentially, he made a quick calculation.

Almost 11 years later with 7.8 billion people in the world, we continue with a high percentage of the population who have no idea about BTC, nor do they know what Bitcoin is, by the time (adoption) BTC reaches the consumer, all the BTC already It will be in the hands of institutions, Hodlers. very rich people, banks, exchanges, whales, miners, (not counting the lost BTC) members of WO , then it will be when the satoshis enter the market, because few people will be able to pay the full price of 1BTC in 10 or 15 years.

Here the point of HF is that he was/is a real BTCull, with Hat, of course

People will react similarly to gold, they will buy small pieces of BTC as store of value.
How many things can happen in the long term future? many.
That there will be some currency for the usual purchases in the day to day? probably with all security.

But if we get it right, no one will replace Bitcoin.

(Excuse my grammar, as you have already observed, my level of English is very bad.)

[Karartma1]

I can't leave for a few days that I lose touch with everything here and corn starts to fall. If my 5 minutes reading is correct, I guess corn is following stocks right now and I still don't get why. 

Regarding criminals:
Leaked documents reveal some of the world’s biggest banks allowed criminals to move dirty money around the world https://t.co/ZnHwIZNdRJ?amp=1
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1307726541783171073

Gee, wonder why ol' Warren Buffett dropped all of his bank stocks earlier this year? He couldn't have been tipped off, right?  /s 

This is juicy. Now that Bitcoin is not involved what they will be whining about? Oh, yes right, BANKS!