Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ivomm]

'2x per year' lines update (vs 7-day average):

This has been my №1 chart since you've posted it first here. We may notice that the lower line corresponds to a 2x price increase per year if we round the price to 50$ at the start of 2013. That is an exponential growth 50x2^t, where t is the number of years since 2014. The remarkable thing is that for 7 years Bitcoin has kept hitting these numbers on the way down after several extra exponential growths related to the halvings. And now Bitcoin is even above the line unlike 2015 and most of 2016. This is a strong sign that the exponential growth will continue at least in the next 2-3 years. We can't be sure if 2021 will have that extra growth, but the longer we stay close to the lower line, the better. Sooner or later Bitcoin will touch and may pass through the upper line for a period.

With that regard, what software/site do you use for that chart? I would like to make my own chart with years up to 2025.  In my opinion the lower line is very close to the real price of bitcoin, since it reflects the increasing demand (new accounts added to exchanges, etc.) vs selling pressure on exchanges. For the latter one can judge from the total exchange ballance, which has decreased from 2.8 mil to 2.4 mil in the last 6 months. We can easily find the line equation for each year so that for each day or month the price point is found. Something like y=(x/3)*1600+6400. For example at the end of August (x=8), the price for the bottom line is y~$10 666. We are over 10% above that, so all is good!

What's your prediction For BTCitcoin by December?

- over $12500
- over $13500
- over $15000

Me like- No one knows, end of story!  

Easy. According the above formula, the price on 10th Oct. 2020 should have been (9.3/3)*1600+6400=$11360. Amazing! It seems that for one more year Bitcoin kept the 2x increase. At the end of 2020 the price should be around 12 800, according to the formula and the chart. We've been close to 12 500 already this year, so it is time to revisit and break that resistance. But of course, little above or below 2x is also quite possible. Even 15K-16K is not that far, only 40% from now.

[Last of the V8s]

I liked an essay for its substance and its style.

https://medium.com/@millwarj/we-need-a-new-approach-to-teaching-modern-chinese-history-we-have-lazily-repeated-false-d24983bd7ef2

No country or international body in the world today challenges PRC claims to sovereignty over any of its contiguous territory, and the international community subscribes to various “one China” work-around phrasings to avoid precisely defining the relationship between Taiwan and the PRC. I don’t suggest politicians should revise these practical political positions. They are not based on ancient historical sovereignty, however. So historians should write it as we see it.

Such a new paradigm might seem too political. It might well make authors and publishers nervous. It certainly fits the definition of “historical nihilism” by which the CCP’s infamous “Document Number Nine” anathematizes non-Party-approved historiography.

But it is just as political to ignore the political and cultural diversity of today’s China. By parroting for generations the euphemistic terminology, historiographic exceptionalism, and cartographic legerdemain that obscures its colonial past, we tacitly accept the PRC’s assimilationism and expansive claims. Rather than talking about “making modern China” as fait accompli, we might recognize that it has been and is still being militarily and ideologically constructed, and that construction in the hands of the CCP party-state entails cultural and physical violence to millions of non-Chinese as well as Chinese people.

[dragonvslinux]

Looks like we've avoided a drop to the $9K strong support: 50 Week MA, VPVR & old long-term resistance trend-line. While I'm still expecting continuation to the measured move of $12K, I'm remaining cautious and patient, waiting for the resistance to turn to support. Based on TA prior to the triangle breakout, this is the current level I expected price to be knocked down from (red hammer) if price consolidated sideways for longer. Although this didn't happen, this still remains a price level were price could easily be rejected.

Here's an "educational" style to chart to look at the measured move of the symmetrical triangle. The targets are either $9K or $12K.

It's also more than possible price now decides consolidates sideways and creates a higher low around $10.3-$10.4, given that we have established a (local) higher high. That said, price is far from being over-bought and we still haven't seen considerable volume. A continued move upwards would likely overshoot the $12K target, potentially establishing a new yearly high sooner than expected, as this is only 10% away from happening, so easily do-able in a day if we see another July 27th continuation style candle:



Similarities include trend-line break and a moving above all Daily MAs which would take us to the 2019 highs, not unreasonable at all imo.

[Karartma1]

'2x per year' lines update (vs 7-day average):

This has been my №1 chart since you've posted it first here. We may notice that the lower line corresponds to a 2x price increase per year if we round the price to 50$ at the start of 2013. That is an exponential growth 50x2^t, where t is the number of years since 2014. The remarkable thing is that for 7 years Bitcoin has kept hitting these numbers on the way down after several extra exponential growths related to the halvings. And now Bitcoin is even above the line unlike 2015 and most of 2016. This is a strong sign that the exponential growth will continue at least in the next 2-3 years. We can't be sure if 2021 will have that extra growth, but the longer we stay close to the lower line, the better. Sooner or later Bitcoin will touch and may pass through the upper line for a period.

With that regard, what software/site do you use for that chart? I would like to make my own chart with years up to 2025.  In my opinion the lower line is very close to the real price of bitcoin, since it reflects the increasing demand (new accounts added to exchanges, etc.) vs selling pressure on exchanges. For the latter one can judge from the total exchange ballance, which has decreased from 2.8 mil to 2.4 mil in the last 6 months. We can easily find the line equation for each year so that for each day or month the price point is found. Something like y=(x/3)*1600+6400. For example at the end of August (x=8), the price for the bottom line is y~$10 666. We are over 10% above that, so all is good!

I completely agree that's the only chart to go. Its accuracy is mindblowing! That's the chart to go to when there are dumps, when your gf tells you to f*** off, when you finish coffee in the morning, when bob starts ranting ( ), when proudhon tells you that math and science confirm the price will go below 10k soon and I could go on forever.
The future is paved, you got it before others. Just wait. (dude and lfc, I know you hate waiting but...wait  )
Oh, good morning

[Last of the V8s]

Sunday's incomplete
on this Wall of ours without
a rash of haiku:

Twitter is bullish,
the chartists see a fractal,
companies stock up.

"I've held long enough,
I want a house and a car,
Sir please, when is moon?"

My gif folder bulges
My gif folder is bulging
with rockets, trains and, oddly,
violin pictures.

They predict a bull
from now till end of next year,
with minor pullbacks -

the regulators
want a slice of our damn pie;
hackers too no doubt;

Lightning's there but
not quite ready for mainstream;
elections threaten -

Not all plain sailing.
Still, up, mostly up, and more up.
Then ... back down again?

[Krubster]

If I would have to categorize myself in one of those two, I'm definitely more of the introverted type. I don't mind this new normal at all. The only thing that's bothering me is the closed borders. For the past few years I've been living abroad roughly half the time per year. On the other hand - since I can't travel - I've started my own business to keep myself busy. I no longer need to dip into my bitcoin stash to pay the bills and make ends meet, which is a great thing. All in all, life is good. To quote Jimbo, "Go bitcoin go".

[fillippone]

Hey @El Duderino_ what is happening over there??

So here's a map of Belgium.
The 1st map are the infections of #COVID19 cases per 100 000 in the last 14 days.
The 2nd map is a map of different languages spoken in Belgium.
🤔

https://twitter.com/whalepanda/status/1315189715956568064?s=21

[Last of the V8s]

Frogs responsible
for the spread of Corona
Macron just says "Bof".

[d_eddie]

Rainy October?
Corn over 11k
Future looks better





#haiku

[El duderino_]

Last day of the week.
New poll created again...
The dude says his price.

12,500 - 13,000

[El duderino_]

Sunday's incomplete
on this Wall of ours without
a rash of haiku:

Twitter is bullish,
the chartists see a fractal,
companies stock up.

"I've held long enough,
I want a house and a car,
Sir please, when is moon?"

My gif folder bulges
with rockets, trains and, oddly,
violin pictures.

They predict a bull
from now till end of next year,
with minor pullbacks -

the regulators
want a slice of our damn pie;
hackers too no doubt;

Lightning's there but
not quite ready for mainstream;
elections threaten -

Not all plain sailing.
Still, up, mostly up, and more up.
Then ... back down again?

A perfect Haiku...
Replenishments a biatch!
Sorry LAST V 8!

[El duderino_]

Price inflation is artificial, a consequence of wealth confiscation.

Price deflation is natural, a benefit of improved productivity from higher intensity trade and innovation.

Inflation is theft. Deflation is a gift.
https://twitter.com/Breedlove22/status/1315245509636878336?s=20

[Paashaas]

Supply keeps dropping on exchanges.

[JimboToronto]

Good morn Bitcoinland.
One one three eight four dollars
(Bitcoinaverage).

Eleven thousand
Is holding nicely
Go go Bitcoin go.

-snip-

My gif folder bulges
with rockets, trains and, oddly,
violin pictures.

-snip-

A perfect Haiku...

Almost... but you see
"My GIF folder bulges" is
Six syllables long.

I apologize.
Sorry I'm a nitpicker.
Form must be maintained.

Even if it means
Being annoying as hell.
I have to do it.

[fillippone]

Interesting report from Coincecko.

CoinGecko 2020 Q3 Full Report



There is a supply drain from exchanges because liquidity is being sucked on DEX’s due to the DeFi frenzy.

[Toxic2040]

Sunday's incomplete
on this Wall of ours without
a rash of haiku:

Twitter is bullish,
the chartists see a fractal,
companies stock up.

"I've held long enough,
I want a house and a car,
Sir please, when is moon?"

My gif folder bulges
with rockets, trains and, oddly,
violin pictures.

They predict a bull
from now till end of next year,
with minor pullbacks -

the regulators
want a slice of our damn pie;
hackers too no doubt;

Lightning's there but
not quite ready for mainstream;
elections threaten -

Not all plain sailing.
Still, up, mostly up, and more up.
Then ... back down again?

[Phil_S]

Since '2x per year' trendline is so popular now , here it is, magnified:



Really looking forward to $12800.

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/17170760/1/bma-llc-v-hdr-global-trading-limited/?s=09

I did not know about this crazy Rico case against Bitmex from earlier in the year.

Seems to rest on their use of American services, but as we know, they did take care to bounce you off if you forgot to use a vpn and logged in from USA.

Guess they really want a piece of that pie.

[Karartma1]

Since '2x per year' trendline is so popular now , here it is, magnified:



Really looking forward to $12800.

It surely is! Please allow me to like the original one which is more relaxing than this one. I'll keep some merits for you.
I am about to print the 2x * yr chart and put it on my wall so when I wake up I remind to myself where we are going. 

[Last of the V8s]

Nice work, Sunny Jim.
You're both right and wrong. Still, I
better learn to count.