[1050 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]

[organofcorti]

Luck is just that: luck. There's no explanation for it. You either have bad luck or you don't.

(...)

Assuming a normal distribution and estimating the standard error from the respective samples (0.1262058917, 0.0744550916 and 0.0485402741 respectively), there's a chance of 4.36%, 9.18% and 13.57%, respectively, that a given pool would be that unlucky.

4.36% sounds pretty low, but since there are more than 23 mining pools, chances are that it happens to one of them...

Thanks for your post. It helps me clear things a bit between probability and the normal distribution function. I guess that the fact that luck "is not stateful over time" is counterintuitive to me. Fortunately I'm not gambling ;-)

It may have sounded counterintuitive because redtwitz was assuming a normal distribution in a situation where that assumption can't be made without significant loss of accuracy.

However, I think PPLNS supporters aren't always very clear about the fact that there is a risk of earning less EVEN IN THE LONG RUN than pure PPS. That's the part that I had missed. Even if one risks just as much losing than winning, the risk is still here compared to PPS. Or am I wrong again?

If a PPLNS pool has lower fees than a PPS pool, then eventually then probability that you earn more on a PPLNS pool will approach 1.0 over time.

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[organofcorti]

Luck is a factor for days, or even weeks.  I am talking about months of below expected results.

And luck is bi-directional.  Except for Bitminter where the payout graph hasn't gone over the expect line for more than a year.

Put that in your probability calculator and write a little lecture about it.

I do pool audits for US$120 (1.29 btc). PM me if you'r really interesting in knowing for sure if there's a problem or not.

[jamesg]

Another explanation is that some party is conducting a block withholding attack on the pool.  That is:

They direct hashpower at the pool but modify their mining software to not submit shares with a target value greater than X where X is less than the current difficulty.

The result is that they collect coins without every contributing to the pool. 

Such a strategy would be a very viable attack on competing pools.

I can think of several easy mechanisms to address such an attack, but I doubt that any pools do so today.

This is patently false. Please think about what you are saying before you start typing such things.

There is no way to perform a MITM attack or block withholding attack where the miner withholding receives the coins instead of the pool.

[gyverlb]

Another explanation is that some party is conducting a block withholding attack on the pool.  That is:

They direct hashpower at the pool but modify their mining software to not submit shares with a target value greater than X where X is less than the current difficulty.

The result is that they collect coins without every contributing to the pool. 

Such a strategy would be a very viable attack on competing pools.

I can think of several easy mechanisms to address such an attack, but I doubt that any pools do so today.

This is patently false. Please think about what you are saying before you start typing such things.

There is no way to perform a MITM attack or block withholding attack where the miner withholding receives the coins instead of the pool.

This is not what he wrote about. The coins received are not the coins from the withholded blocks but the coins from the usual payout (for share submission).

[Epoch]

Another explanation is that some party is conducting a block withholding attack on the pool.  That is:

They direct hashpower at the pool but modify their mining software to not submit shares with a target value greater than X where X is less than the current difficulty.
The result is that they collect coins without every contributing to the pool.  
Such a strategy would be a very viable attack on competing pools.
I can think of several easy mechanisms to address such an attack, but I doubt that any pools do so today.

This is patently false. Please think about what you are saying before you start typing such things.
There is no way to perform a MITM attack or block withholding attack where the miner withholding receives the coins instead of the pool.

I thought Entropy-uc's post was pretty clear, and mentions nothing about a Man-In-The-Middle attack. Let's put it this way:

1) I direct my hashpower at a pool.
2) when my (custom) mining software detects that I have found a block, it does not submit it.
3) when someone else finds a block at the pool, I get paid my share just like all the other miners.

So, I have contributed nothing (and never will), I have performed a 'block withholding attack', and I still get coins. Granted, there is no direct benefit to me by doing this (and even my rewards are lower because of it). But if I point enough hashpower at the pool, it is possible to 'discredit' the pool's rep by imposing what appears to be an ongoing (and perhaps never-ending) run of bad luck because of my block withholding attack.

I'm not suggesting this is what is happening. I merely point out that I don't see anything 'patently false' about Entropy-uc's post.

[WhitePhantom]

Another explanation is that some party is conducting a block withholding attack on the pool.  That is:

They direct hashpower at the pool but modify their mining software to not submit shares with a target value greater than X where X is less than the current difficulty.
The result is that they collect coins without every contributing to the pool. 
Such a strategy would be a very viable attack on competing pools.
I can think of several easy mechanisms to address such an attack, but I doubt that any pools do so today.

This is patently false. Please think about what you are saying before you start typing such things.
There is no way to perform a MITM attack or block withholding attack where the miner withholding receives the coins instead of the pool.

I thought Entropy-uc's post was pretty clear, and mentions nothing about a Man-In-The-Middle attack. Let's put it this way:

1) I direct my hashpower at a pool.
2) when my (custom) mining software detects that I have found a block, it does not submit it.
3) when someone else finds a block at the pool, I get paid my share just like all the other miners.

So, I have contributed nothing (and never will), I have performed a 'block withholding attack', and I still get coins. Granted, there is no direct benefit to me by doing this (and even my rewards are lower because of it). But if I point enough hashpower at the pool, it is possible to 'discredit' the pool's rep by imposing what appears to be an ongoing (and perhaps never-ending) run of bad luck because of my block withholding attack.

I'm not suggesting this is what is happening. I merely point out that I don't see anything 'patently false' about Entroy-uc's post.

Thank you.  I don't have any reason to know it is happening either.

But it is a possible attack, there are people with motive to conduct such an attack, and there is enough misfortune appearing for many different pools lately to move my threat indicator from 'coincidence' to 'enemy action'.

Perhaps an analysis should be done on whether any high hash users are finding no blocks for the pool or perhaps far fewer blocks than is statistically likely.

[FanDjangoBTC]

Speculations on the motive of such an attack, only destruction if no personal profit possible?

[Rishodi]

Luck is a factor for days, or even weeks.  I am talking about months of below expected results.

And luck is bi-directional.  Except for Bitminter where the payout graph hasn't gone over the expect line for more than a year.

Where are you getting that information? The payout graph that I see, on Bitminter's rewards page, only shows the last few weeks, although that is not clear as the scale of the horizontal axis is not labeled.

Perhaps an analysis should be done on whether any high hash users are finding no blocks for the pool or perhaps far fewer blocks than is statistically likely.

With access to the pool's DB, that sort of analysis would be easy to do and would quickly identify any power users who had submitted a large number of shares but not found any blocks. However, if this type of withholding attack were indeed occurring, such analysis would easily miss a distributed attack of the same sort.

For example, if a user with 500GH/s has been mining for months, has submitted hundreds of millions of shares, and has yet found no blocks, that might be suspicious. But if 500 users with 1GH/s each had been mining for the same period of time and collectively submitted the same number of shares, it is entirely likely, on a per-user basis, that each of them would not have found a block. Thus if there were a large number of users participating in such an attack, at lower hashing speeds it would be essentially impossible to distinguish the miners who were participating in it from those who were not.

That being said, since there is no profit motive in such an attack -- worse, it's actually detrimental for any pool user to withhold a block hash which meets the target difficulty -- I think that such an attack is rather unlikely. The motive would perhaps be personal or spiteful in nature, and it would likely not be sustained for long due to opposing financial motivations.

[kano]

Speculations on the motive of such an attack, only destruction if no personal profit possible?

With PPS, the loss for the miner is only 1 share each time he finds a block ...
Thus on PPS it will directly affect the pool op but the miners are not affected at all and the witholder is losing only 1 in "network difficulty"/"work difficulty" shares ...
i.e. 10million/"work difficulty" (so mining at 10 diff the miner loses 0.0001% ...)

[organofcorti]

[...]
I DO NOT suspect malfeasance on the operator's part at all - if Dr. Haribo was cheating, why not keep NMC payouts all to himself?  (I wouldn't be surprised to find that some pools are merged mining and keeping the alt-chain coins)

I suspect there is either a significant bug in the pool, or someone has worked out a method to exploit the payout mechanism similar to the hopping strategy.  Or it could be as simple as a bad calculation in the expected vs. actual payouts graph.

To work out what is going on would require detailed analysis of data that only the pool has access to.  [....]

No, you're assuming too much there. All the charts you are looking at are based on publicly available data, so the answer is in the data.

It's non-trivial but quite possible to analyse that data and determine 1. if the data is extremely unusual, and 2. hypothesize about reasons for any data anomaly. I've done exactly that here:

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/2012/10/81-bitcoinpool-another-bitclockers.html
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/82-bitcoinpool-great-anomaly-hunt.html

Without analysing data you're flying in the dark and just guessing at problems without knowing if there are any significant problems, or what the nature of the problems are.

If you do wish to put your money where your mouth is, the offer holds

[PCMiner]

Someone with access to several ASIC's is onboard now, cranking 1.5+THps?  That's insane.  I'll leave my token Nvidia machines on BTC, but the end is near for all GPU BTC mining.  Time for me to switch most everything over to LTC.

[Newar]

Someone with access to several ASIC's is onboard now, cranking 1.5+THps?  That's insane.  I'll leave my token Nvidia machines on BTC, but the end is near for all GPU BTC mining.  Time for me to switch most everything over to LTC.

ASICMINER

Another 1.5T online, temporarily allocated on bitminter. Will switch to solo later on.

[Jcw188]

Someone with access to several ASIC's is onboard now, cranking 1.5+THps?  That's insane.  I'll leave my token Nvidia machines on BTC, but the end is near for all GPU BTC mining.  Time for me to switch most everything over to LTC.

ASICMINER

Another 1.5T online, temporarily allocated on bitminter. Will switch to solo later on.

Ah I was wondering why my expected btc per block found went down substantially. This would explain it right?  Weird though, not like we have been finding many blocks lately :-(

[organofcorti]

Someone with access to several ASIC's is onboard now, cranking 1.5+THps?  That's insane.  I'll leave my token Nvidia machines on BTC, but the end is near for all GPU BTC mining.  Time for me to switch most everything over to LTC.

ASICMINER

Another 1.5T online, temporarily allocated on bitminter. Will switch to solo later on.

Ah I was wondering why my expected btc per block found went down substantially. This would explain it right?  Weird though, not like we have been finding many blocks lately :-(

You get less btc per block and more blocks. btc per shift is unaffected, except that variance is reduced.

[matt4054]

'realasicminer' has just found its first block, let's hope this was just bad luck and things go back to normal.

I like BitMinter (that's why I elected it as primary pool), but I must admit that:

• I had the impression that BitMinter was REALLY unlucky for the past 2 weeks,
• As one user out of thousands, I'm not willing to pay >1BTC on my expenses to find out why some pool would have a problem (and not getting ROI), I think the pool operator should do it on pool fee's expenses, now that the fees are in place (with all due repect the DrHaribo's work),
• Switching pools (and losing the NMC) seems to make more sense for an individual, GPU miner. The end is near anyway.

[GuiltySpark343]

Now with 8+ TH/s we should on avg be finding 16 blocks/day at current difficulty 10076293.

So far today (past 15 hrs) found 4.
Yesterday (during full 24 hr period) found 7.

[Jcw188]

Wow realasicminer is up to 2.5 th/s. hope the pools luck will improve.

So u r saying that I get less btc per block found but it should be finding more blocks so it evens out. Well we will see cuz frankly luck has stunk here lately.

[Jcw188]

'realasicminer' has just found its first block, let's hope this was just bad luck and things go back to normal.

I like BitMinter (that's why I elected it as primary pool), but I must admit that:

• I had the impression that BitMinter was REALLY unlucky for the past 2 weeks,
• As one user out of thousands, I'm not willing to pay >1BTC on my expenses to find out why some pool would have a problem (and not getting ROI), I think the pool operator should do it on pool fee's expenses, now that the fees are in place (with all due repect the DrHaribo's work),
• Switching pools (and losing the NMC) seems to make more sense for an individual, GPU miner. The end is near anyway.

See this is what I was wondering. Is it true I should switch to different pool with 300 mhash/sec? Or will we just find more blocks to make up for less per block

[i3one21]

What do you think "RealAsicMiner" is running?  The whole Bitminter hash rate jumped almost 3 Thps.

[matt4054]

See this is what I was wondering. Is it true I should switch to different pool with 300 mhash/sec? Or will we just find more blocks to make up for less per block

Switching to another PPLNS pool with more or less hashrate should not change anything. If you want security and are willing to pay the fees, you should move to a pure PPS pool. That's why I'm considering, I prefered BitMinter, but I'm curious about the "too unlucky" issue discussed at the moment.