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Author Topic: [1050 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]  (Read 776314 times)
organofcorti
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April 23, 2013, 10:25:03 PM
 #2841

I was wondering, for sciences sake, if you could add a overall average time to find a block listing somewhere on the website.  I know the actual times can greatly vary, (1 min to sometimes 10+ hours) but it would be nice to see what the bitminter pool average "Find a block" time is over a the course of a week, or a month, etc...
Can't be that hard to get the average.

The average time is dependant on hashrate and difficulty. Averaging past a retarget wouldn't make sense.


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April 23, 2013, 11:28:06 PM
 #2842

I was wondering, for sciences sake, if you could add a overall average time to find a block listing somewhere on the website.  I know the actual times can greatly vary, (1 min to sometimes 10+ hours) but it would be nice to see what the bitminter pool average "Find a block" time is over a the course of a week, or a month, etc...
Can't be that hard to get the average.

this chart can help you get an estimate

http://bitcoincharts.com/     the rate for blocks per hour FOR THE WHOLE NETWORK is on the upper right corner.


 today it is 6.71 blocks per hour.    multiply by 24 = 161 blocks per day  for the entire network.      so use 161      multiply by bit minters hash rate 6.05 = 974.292 divide by network hash rate 71.858 = 13.55 blocks per day 0r about 1 block every hour and 47 minutes.  


   THIS is in constant flux why our rate of 6.05 Th  and the network rate of 71.588  changes minute by minute.   So you get a rough estimate you can do this calculation 24 times a day on every hour and add it then divide  by 24.  more samples are more accurate but always reflect the past history not the present.   Lets say asic miner decides to move all of its 8Th to bitminter in 1 hour from now .  We jump to 14Th not 6Th and even though we were at the 1 block every 1 hour and 46 minutes for 20 days in a row we now jump to 1 block every 50 or 45 minutes in an instant. 

My math could be off a bit but I am pretty sure theory is correct.. In a way this is a more complicated answer with more detail then PCMiner but essentially the same answer.

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April 24, 2013, 12:22:41 AM
 #2843

No, the network hash rate doesn't affect the pool block rate.
You seem to have added that in and then removed it in your calculations.
Your answer is correct, but the calculation is adding then removing variables.
The network difficulty it what matters.

To get the network difficulty use getinfo on bitcoind or http://blockchain.info/q/getdifficulty - call that D
If the pool hash rate is X TH/s

Then the expected average time for the pool to find a block is:

(D * 2^32) / (X * 10^12) seconds (i.e. a simple 2 number division of D and X)

So assuming the pool hash rate is 6.05TH/s

(8974296.01488785 * 2^32) / (6.05 * 10 ^ 12) = ~6371s or ~1hr 46min

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April 24, 2013, 01:53:38 AM
 #2844

Two stale blocks today?  Is something wrong, how often does this happen?  What a waste of mining...
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April 24, 2013, 02:33:26 AM
 #2845

Sorry didn't mean to be rude but I was confused. Last block not showing as stale anymore but there is still one stale. How often does that happen?
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April 24, 2013, 03:04:23 AM
 #2846

Speaking of API, I noticed there are some JSON fields available on the web site when you are logged in.  For example, on the shifts json, when logged in you get access to your_score, your_rejected and your_accepted

Any chance you can add the headers API key support to the shifts JSON to allow visibility to user specific data without actually having to log in?  Doing the same for the blocks JSON for block level reward data would be amazing too.

Thanks for your hard work! 
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April 24, 2013, 09:39:34 AM
 #2847

No, the network hash rate doesn't affect the pool block rate.
You seem to have added that in and then removed it in your calculations.
Your answer is correct, but the calculation is adding then removing variables.
The network difficulty it what matters.

To get the network difficulty use getinfo on bitcoind or http://blockchain.info/q/getdifficulty - call that D
If the pool hash rate is X TH/s

Then the expected average time for the pool to find a block is:

(D * 2^32) / (X * 10^12) seconds (i.e. a simple 2 number division of D and X)

So assuming the pool hash rate is 6.05TH/s

(8974296.01488785 * 2^32) / (6.05 * 10 ^ 12) = ~6371s or ~1hr 46min


Okay I know that difficulty  should be used not hashrate of the network ,but and here is my problem with using difficulty lets say the network hashrate is 71Th and difficulty  is 8974296.  Lets say 30 percent of the network drops off  but that bitminter has 0 dropoff.  This has happened more then once.  During the 30 percent dropoff  bitminter has 6Th out of 50Th I would think we get more blocks during the 30% drop off. I realize that difficulty stays stable for about 11 days while bitminter hash and network hash are in a flux state.  
 

So my logic was the current hashrate ratio of bitminter to network is more important then using the 11 day constant difficulty number.  My best case real world example is BTC guild is huge 30 out of 71 Th  lets say all of asicminers 8Th is with BTC guild and all is well.

 Bitminter is at 6Th the network is at 71Th.
.

 Our percent is 6/71 or 8.4 percent.  lets say asic miner's gear drops off do to a power issue since it is all with BTC guild Bitminter stays the same  6Th but the network drops off to 63Th  our percent is 6/63 or 9.5 percent.  So if asicminer was down for 1 day difficulty stays set at 8,974,296  but for practical purposes our network share rose from 8.4 to 9.5 percent.

 For instance Network  Hash  is   the following on :
April 19Th 58Th  
Apr 20Th 58Th    
Apr 21St 65Th  
April 22nd 80Th
 April 23rd 70Th
 April 24Th 75Th

Difficulty was constant .  For the sake of argument lets say bitminter's  hashrate flux was + or - 2%  while the network had larger swings due to Asicminer turning its gear on and off. Asicminer has about 8Th and I see big quick drops close to 8Th in the network.

 My method is never going to be exact since I am using 2 changing variables bitminer hashrate and network hashrate.  And I am not using the difficulty which is an eleven day(IIRC) constant. But my method should reflect the real share of blocks better if  bitminer's hashrate is more stable then the network's hashrate during the time sampled.

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April 24, 2013, 01:54:25 PM
 #2848

No, the network hash rate doesn't affect the pool block rate.
You seem to have added that in and then removed it in your calculations.
Your answer is correct, but the calculation is adding then removing variables.
The network difficulty it what matters.

To get the network difficulty use getinfo on bitcoind or http://blockchain.info/q/getdifficulty - call that D
If the pool hash rate is X TH/s

Then the expected average time for the pool to find a block is:

(D * 2^32) / (X * 10^12) seconds (i.e. a simple 2 number division of D and X)

So assuming the pool hash rate is 6.05TH/s

(8974296.01488785 * 2^32) / (6.05 * 10 ^ 12) = ~6371s or ~1hr 46min


Okay I know that difficulty  should be used not hashrate of the network ,but and here is my problem with using difficulty lets say the network hashrate is 71Th and difficulty  is 8974296.  Lets say 30 percent of the network drops off  but that bitminter has 0 dropoff.  This has happened more then once.  During the 30 percent dropoff  bitminter has 6Th out of 50Th I would think we get more blocks during the 30% drop off. I realize
...
No, you will not expect to find more blocks.
The ability to find a block is directly related to the difficulty, the network hash rate is not relevant.
If you happen to find some correlation, it's purely coincidental.

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April 24, 2013, 02:03:49 PM
 #2849

what's going on now, just really bad luck?  block has been 10 hours
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April 24, 2013, 02:17:13 PM
 #2850

what's going on now, just really bad luck?  block has been 10 hours

If pool hash rate doesn't increase proportionally to difficulty increases, there will be longer and longer blocks.

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April 24, 2013, 03:18:02 PM
 #2851

ever hit 100% before on the CDF?  Huh
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April 24, 2013, 04:42:26 PM
 #2852

no it can't hit 100%    99.99999999999999...... and on.

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April 24, 2013, 05:06:41 PM
 #2853

Can a pool abandon a block?  13 hours and counting, we're missing out on lucky and unlucky blocks of shorter duration...
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April 24, 2013, 05:24:23 PM
 #2854

Can a pool abandon a block?  13 hours and counting, we're missing out on lucky and unlucky blocks of shorter duration...
There's no point. You have the same chance, in the next second, to solve a block that you have already been working on for 13 seconds as one you've been working on for 13 hours. Or 13 days for that matter. The chance of finding a solution within a given time window depends solely on pool hashrate and current difficulty; nothing else. 'History' plays no part.

Now, if something was suspected to be wrong with the server, then that is a different story and a restart can make sense.

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April 24, 2013, 05:28:37 PM
 #2855

Quit panicking, this is variance. We've seen blocks last much longer in the past. There is nothing wrong with the pool. Miners of old can tell you about blocks lasting 48 hours.

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April 24, 2013, 05:54:26 PM
 #2856

Quit panicking, this is variance. We've seen blocks last much longer in the past. There is nothing wrong with the pool. Miners of old can tell you about blocks lasting 48 hours.

Pool hash rate was probably much lower then?  At any rate, I agree that it is what it is: variance.
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April 24, 2013, 08:52:40 PM
 #2857

Can a pool abandon a block?  13 hours and counting, we're missing out on lucky and unlucky blocks of shorter duration...

Mining bitcoins is like going through billions of lottery tickets. There's nothing to abandon, we're not staring at the same lottery ticket all this time. We just had some bad luck playing the lottery today.

Each hash your computer does is one lottery ticket. There is no progress towards completing a block. If your lottery ticket is not a winning ticket, then you throw it away, it's completely useless.

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April 25, 2013, 07:30:56 AM
 #2858

Can you give us ETA for Litecoin pool and miner . July - August - September ?

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April 25, 2013, 02:55:35 PM
 #2859

Quit panicking, this is variance. We've seen blocks last much longer in the past. There is nothing wrong with the pool. Miners of old can tell you about blocks lasting 48 hours.

Pool hash rate was probably much lower then?  At any rate, I agree that it is what it is: variance.


 the almost 14 hour  block# 232949 time   13:57 =    1 block

  the next almost 14 hours   blocks # 232957 to 233037  time  14:26 =   13 blocks     


   
This comes to 14 blocks in 28 hours and 23 minutes.  Just about 1 block every 2 hours and 2 minutes.  We should be around 1 hour 46 minutes to 2 hours a block based on our hash against difficulty of 8.9 mill.

My point is it averages out both sets of blocks   are way off one is very bad luck one is very good luck. When averaged very close to normal numbers.

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April 28, 2013, 07:21:31 AM
 #2860

I was thinking about bitminter's recent bad luck. Could it be because only on bitminter LP resets the work, every time a new nmc block is found, for bitcoin work as well? For example, on ozcoin you could have an option to ignore LP on namecoin blocks and continue working with "old" work until new block is found on bitcoin network. In theory, this shouldn't affect the chances, but in practice bitminter has a negative luck for some time now...or always below expected if you look at the reward graph on bitminter's website.

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