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Author Topic: [1050 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]  (Read 776001 times)
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April 28, 2013, 01:05:42 PM
 #2861

I was thinking about bitminter's recent bad luck. Could it be because only on bitminter LP resets the work, every time a new nmc block is found, for bitcoin work as well? For example, on ozcoin you could have an option to ignore LP on namecoin blocks and continue working with "old" work until new block is found on bitcoin network. In theory, this shouldn't affect the chances, but in practice bitminter has a negative luck for some time now...or always below expected if you look at the reward graph on bitminter's website.
You know the theory, so you've answered your own question. Resetting work (or bitcoind, or the server itself for that matter)  has no effect on the probability of finding a valid block. The chance to find a block depends on only 2 things: hashrate and difficulty.

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April 28, 2013, 01:08:28 PM
 #2862

Not sure if your idea is correct.
 A lot of people myself included struggle with this:

 1)the current difficulty is set still for 11 days.
2) the current network hash moves up and down constantly
3) bitminters hash moves up and down constantly

 I have been told by some heavy hitters that bitminters  Hash to current difficulty is what matters in assessment of luck. The rest of the network does not affect what bitminter should find in blocks in a day.  I don't quite understand this.  Right now we are hashing 5.5 out of the networks 74. and the difficulty is 8.9 mill.  While the diff has been at 8.9 the network hash had as much as 85Th hash and bitminter has has as high as 6.05th hash.

  5.5 divide by 74 is  .0743   our share of the network. difficulty is 8.9 mill

 6.05 divide by 84 is  .072   our share of the network. difficulty is 8.9 mill  

  so looking at the two examples I think the way the luck is calculated right now uses our hash against the difficulty. this would mean we should get more blocks with the 6.05  since it is larger then 5.5 and the difficulty is  constant.     While I see the consistency in this I think it is not accurate  since our network share is better  with the smaller  hash I would think we would get more blocks with   that number.

 Look at it from another viewpoint.  Lets say BTC guild the biggest pool had a technical issue crashes and the crash lasts 1 day. lets say it even affects the miners in it and they are all locked out for a day.  so for this day we are at 6th the network difficulty is set at 8.9 mill   but the network now has  40Th not 74TH.  so our share is 6 divide by 40 = .15     For this day I feel we would get more blocks then the day before when the network had 74Th and we had the same 6th.  I have been told this is not true since the hash of us is still 6 and the difficulty is still 8.9 mill.

But my training is accounting  not a programming or statistical degree.   I can say this 2 or 3 times when the network had a big drop off in hash and we did not drop we had great luck.

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organofcorti
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April 28, 2013, 01:10:15 PM
 #2863

I was thinking about bitminter's recent bad luck. Could it be because only on bitminter LP resets the work, every time a new nmc block is found, for bitcoin work as well? For example, on ozcoin you could have an option to ignore LP on namecoin blocks and continue working with "old" work until new block is found on bitcoin network. In theory, this shouldn't affect the chances, but in practice bitminter has a negative luck for some time now...or always below expected if you look at the reward graph on bitminter's website.
You know the theory, so you've answered your own question. Resetting work (or bitcoind, or the server itself for that matter)  has no effect on the probability of finding a valid block. The chance to find a block depends on only 2 things: hashrate and difficulty.

Bitminters luck was better than median this week, and although the previous three weeks were worse median they weren't as bad as BTCGuild or Ozcoin.

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April 28, 2013, 01:13:29 PM
 #2864

I was thinking about bitminter's recent bad luck. Could it be because only on bitminter LP resets the work, every time a new nmc block is found, for bitcoin work as well? For example, on ozcoin you could have an option to ignore LP on namecoin blocks and continue working with "old" work until new block is found on bitcoin network. In theory, this shouldn't affect the chances, but in practice bitminter has a negative luck for some time now...or always below expected if you look at the reward graph on bitminter's website.
You know the theory, so you've answered your own question. Resetting work (or bitcoind, or the server itself for that matter)  has no effect on the probability of finding a valid block. The chance to find a block depends on only 2 things: hashrate and difficulty.
 


while typing my answer.   you mention hashrate and difficulty as the kings.

   not to disagree  but I don't still understand why our total network share does not affect our blocks.  

 seems to me 6 out of 70 will do better then 5.9 out of 80.  I  still fail  to understand and have tried to understand why this ratio does not apply in some way.  

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April 28, 2013, 01:14:54 PM
 #2865

Not sure if your idea is correct.
 A lot of people myself included struggle with this:
[....]

Two ways to calculate your expected earnings per second

1. (best method) yourhashrate / 2^32 / difficulty * bitcoinreward
2. yourhashrate / networkhashrate * network blocks per second * bitcoinreward

You were forgetting how blocks per second changes when the network hashrate increases and difficulty stays the same. And don't forget the part variance plays.

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April 28, 2013, 02:21:20 PM
 #2866

Not sure if your idea is correct.
 A lot of people myself included struggle with this:
[....]

Two ways to calculate your expected earnings per second

1. (best method) yourhashrate / 2^32 / difficulty * bitcoinreward
2. yourhashrate / networkhashrate * network blocks per second * bitcoinreward

You were forgetting how blocks per second changes when the network hashrate increases and difficulty stays the same. And don't forget the part variance plays.




 thank you,    I can see that my idea correlates with method number 2. Although your explanation is quite clear compared to my effort to express the same thing.

 Yeah variance in a short time period can be quite a lot. I have seen 1 block in 14 hours and then 14 blocks in the next 14 hours.

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April 28, 2013, 03:36:25 PM
 #2867

Not sure if your idea is correct.
 A lot of people myself included struggle with this:
[....]

Two ways to calculate your expected earnings per second

1. (best method) yourhashrate / 2^32 / difficulty * bitcoinreward
2. yourhashrate / networkhashrate * network blocks per second * bitcoinreward

You were forgetting how blocks per second changes when the network hashrate increases and difficulty stays the same. And don't forget the part variance plays.

Eh what?

The network hash rate affects your expected earnings? How? Details please ...
Difficulty obviously does, but the network?

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April 28, 2013, 05:31:15 PM
 #2868

New beta version of BitMinter client is out, with BFL ASIC support.

Here's a video of it with a BFL Jalapeno: https://plus.google.com/u/0/107253423193517853418/posts/PQuAMcQnq6g

▶▶▶ Bitminter.com - Your trusted mining pool since 2011.
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April 28, 2013, 05:52:05 PM
 #2869

...
1. (best method) yourhashrate / 2^32 / difficulty * bitcoinreward
2. yourhashrate / networkhashrate * network blocks per second * bitcoinreward
...
Eh what?

The network hash rate affects your expected earnings? How? Details please ...
Difficulty obviously does, but the network?

He doesn't say that, I think, because (the average of) 1 / networkhashrate * network blocks per second
should be constant for a certain difficulty.

1 and 2 above should be (approximately) equal.
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April 28, 2013, 06:03:46 PM
 #2870

The simple way to understand mining: When you are mining the hashes you get are random numbers. If the number is higher than the current network difficulty, then you have a valid block.

Only two things influence success at mining. The difficulty (the number you are trying to beat) and the hash rate (how many numbers you produce per second).

Other people's mining will only influence future difficulty, because they cause more (or fewer) blocks per hour to be produced, which is the deciding factor for the next difficulty.

▶▶▶ Bitminter.com - Your trusted mining pool since 2011.
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April 29, 2013, 03:01:07 AM
 #2871

Did the auto cash out threshold get lowered recently?
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April 29, 2013, 09:11:09 AM
 #2872

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

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April 29, 2013, 11:42:27 AM
 #2873

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

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April 30, 2013, 12:24:54 AM
 #2874

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

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April 30, 2013, 12:31:26 AM
 #2875

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

It's a  toss up between usability an misinterpretability.  BitMinter's stats can't be misinterpreted but there's a minimum of knowledge you need (basic uni level stats) before you can understand it.

Ozcoin's  charts are more intuitively understandable, but much more easily misinterpreted to mean something that they don't since there's no way to know if a long round is unusually long or not.

Edit: The reason you don't "see anything useful" is probably because the "luck" has not been at all unusual for BitMinter. You'd see something useful if something unusual was happening.

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April 30, 2013, 12:55:16 AM
 #2876

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

It's a  toss up between usability an misinterpretability.  BitMinter's stats can't be misinterpreted but there's a minimum of knowledge you need (basic uni level stats) before you can understand it.

Ozcoin's  charts are more intuitively understandable, but much more easily misinterpreted to mean something that they don't since there's no way to know if a long round is unusually long or not.

Edit: The reason you don't "see anything useful" is probably because the "luck" has not been at all unusual for BitMinter. You'd see something useful if something unusual was happening.


The only thing I remember from statistics is they can be made to prove whatever you want to prove. Smiley

M

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April 30, 2013, 01:14:43 AM
 #2877

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

It's a  toss up between usability an misinterpretability.  BitMinter's stats can't be misinterpreted but there's a minimum of knowledge you need (basic uni level stats) before you can understand it.

Ozcoin's  charts are more intuitively understandable, but much more easily misinterpreted to mean something that they don't since there's no way to know if a long round is unusually long or not.

Edit: The reason you don't "see anything useful" is probably because the "luck" has not been at all unusual for BitMinter. You'd see something useful if something unusual was happening.


The only thing I remember from statistics is they can be made to prove whatever you want to prove. Smiley

M

Just as well we're talking about probability and not statistics Tongue

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April 30, 2013, 05:07:01 PM
 #2878

Why is my payout so low?

I'm doing about 2 GH/s, and with other pools I have earned about 0.1 to 0.12 BTC/day. But I mined for a whole day on BitMinter and only earned 0.036 BTC.

Any ideas why so little earned?

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April 30, 2013, 05:08:29 PM
 #2879

Why is my payout so low?

I'm doing about 2 GH/s, and with other pools I have earned about 0.1 to 0.12 BTC/day. But I mined for a whole day on BitMinter and only earned 0.036 BTC.

Any ideas why so little earned?

https://bitminter.com/blocks

Luck has been bad for the past day, as usual variance.

[edit]

With current hashrate of 5910140Mhps and difficulty of 10076292.8834

Bitminter should hit just under 12 blocks a day on average.

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April 30, 2013, 05:26:34 PM
 #2880

Why is my payout so low?

I'm doing about 2 GH/s, and with other pools I have earned about 0.1 to 0.12 BTC/day. But I mined for a whole day on BitMinter and only earned 0.036 BTC.

Any ideas why so little earned?

Just give it some time.

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