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Author Topic: [1050 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]  (Read 833213 times)
organofcorti
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April 28, 2013, 01:14:54 PM
 #2861

Not sure if your idea is correct.
 A lot of people myself included struggle with this:
[....]

Two ways to calculate your expected earnings per second

1. (best method) yourhashrate / 2^32 / difficulty * bitcoinreward
2. yourhashrate / networkhashrate * network blocks per second * bitcoinreward

You were forgetting how blocks per second changes when the network hashrate increases and difficulty stays the same. And don't forget the part variance plays.

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philipma1957
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April 28, 2013, 02:21:20 PM
 #2862

Not sure if your idea is correct.
 A lot of people myself included struggle with this:
[....]

Two ways to calculate your expected earnings per second

1. (best method) yourhashrate / 2^32 / difficulty * bitcoinreward
2. yourhashrate / networkhashrate * network blocks per second * bitcoinreward

You were forgetting how blocks per second changes when the network hashrate increases and difficulty stays the same. And don't forget the part variance plays.




 thank you,    I can see that my idea correlates with method number 2. Although your explanation is quite clear compared to my effort to express the same thing.

 Yeah variance in a short time period can be quite a lot. I have seen 1 block in 14 hours and then 14 blocks in the next 14 hours.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
kano
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April 28, 2013, 03:36:25 PM
 #2863

Not sure if your idea is correct.
 A lot of people myself included struggle with this:
[....]

Two ways to calculate your expected earnings per second

1. (best method) yourhashrate / 2^32 / difficulty * bitcoinreward
2. yourhashrate / networkhashrate * network blocks per second * bitcoinreward

You were forgetting how blocks per second changes when the network hashrate increases and difficulty stays the same. And don't forget the part variance plays.

Eh what?

The network hash rate affects your expected earnings? How? Details please ...
Difficulty obviously does, but the network?

Pool: https://kano.is Here on Bitcointalk: Forum BTC: 1KanoPb8cKYqNrswjaA8cRDk4FAS9eDMLU
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DrHaribo
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April 28, 2013, 05:31:15 PM
 #2864

New beta version of BitMinter client is out, with BFL ASIC support.

Here's a video of it with a BFL Jalapeno: https://plus.google.com/u/0/107253423193517853418/posts/PQuAMcQnq6g

▶▶▶ Bitminter.com - Your trusted mining pool since 2011.
SnitraM
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April 28, 2013, 05:52:05 PM
 #2865

...
1. (best method) yourhashrate / 2^32 / difficulty * bitcoinreward
2. yourhashrate / networkhashrate * network blocks per second * bitcoinreward
...
Eh what?

The network hash rate affects your expected earnings? How? Details please ...
Difficulty obviously does, but the network?

He doesn't say that, I think, because (the average of) 1 / networkhashrate * network blocks per second
should be constant for a certain difficulty.

1 and 2 above should be (approximately) equal.
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April 28, 2013, 06:03:46 PM
 #2866

The simple way to understand mining: When you are mining the hashes you get are random numbers. If the number is higher than the current network difficulty, then you have a valid block.

Only two things influence success at mining. The difficulty (the number you are trying to beat) and the hash rate (how many numbers you produce per second).

Other people's mining will only influence future difficulty, because they cause more (or fewer) blocks per hour to be produced, which is the deciding factor for the next difficulty.

▶▶▶ Bitminter.com - Your trusted mining pool since 2011.
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April 29, 2013, 03:01:07 AM
 #2867

Did the auto cash out threshold get lowered recently?
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April 29, 2013, 09:11:09 AM
 #2868

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.
organofcorti
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April 29, 2013, 11:42:27 AM
 #2869

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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mdude77
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April 30, 2013, 12:24:54 AM
 #2870

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

I mine at Kano's Pool because it pays the best and is completely transparent!  Come join me!
organofcorti
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April 30, 2013, 12:31:26 AM
 #2871

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

It's a  toss up between usability an misinterpretability.  BitMinter's stats can't be misinterpreted but there's a minimum of knowledge you need (basic uni level stats) before you can understand it.

Ozcoin's  charts are more intuitively understandable, but much more easily misinterpreted to mean something that they don't since there's no way to know if a long round is unusually long or not.

Edit: The reason you don't "see anything useful" is probably because the "luck" has not been at all unusual for BitMinter. You'd see something useful if something unusual was happening.

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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mdude77
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April 30, 2013, 12:55:16 AM
 #2872

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

It's a  toss up between usability an misinterpretability.  BitMinter's stats can't be misinterpreted but there's a minimum of knowledge you need (basic uni level stats) before you can understand it.

Ozcoin's  charts are more intuitively understandable, but much more easily misinterpreted to mean something that they don't since there's no way to know if a long round is unusually long or not.

Edit: The reason you don't "see anything useful" is probably because the "luck" has not been at all unusual for BitMinter. You'd see something useful if something unusual was happening.


The only thing I remember from statistics is they can be made to prove whatever you want to prove. Smiley

M

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organofcorti
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April 30, 2013, 01:14:43 AM
 #2873

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

It's a  toss up between usability an misinterpretability.  BitMinter's stats can't be misinterpreted but there's a minimum of knowledge you need (basic uni level stats) before you can understand it.

Ozcoin's  charts are more intuitively understandable, but much more easily misinterpreted to mean something that they don't since there's no way to know if a long round is unusually long or not.

Edit: The reason you don't "see anything useful" is probably because the "luck" has not been at all unusual for BitMinter. You'd see something useful if something unusual was happening.


The only thing I remember from statistics is they can be made to prove whatever you want to prove. Smiley

M

Just as well we're talking about probability and not statistics Tongue

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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GuiltySpark343
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April 30, 2013, 05:07:01 PM
 #2874

Why is my payout so low?

I'm doing about 2 GH/s, and with other pools I have earned about 0.1 to 0.12 BTC/day. But I mined for a whole day on BitMinter and only earned 0.036 BTC.

Any ideas why so little earned?

I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
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April 30, 2013, 05:08:29 PM
 #2875

Why is my payout so low?

I'm doing about 2 GH/s, and with other pools I have earned about 0.1 to 0.12 BTC/day. But I mined for a whole day on BitMinter and only earned 0.036 BTC.

Any ideas why so little earned?

https://bitminter.com/blocks

Luck has been bad for the past day, as usual variance.

[edit]

With current hashrate of 5910140Mhps and difficulty of 10076292.8834

Bitminter should hit just under 12 blocks a day on average.

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Turbor
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April 30, 2013, 05:26:34 PM
 #2876

Why is my payout so low?

I'm doing about 2 GH/s, and with other pools I have earned about 0.1 to 0.12 BTC/day. But I mined for a whole day on BitMinter and only earned 0.036 BTC.

Any ideas why so little earned?

Just give it some time.

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May 01, 2013, 10:36:09 PM
 #2877

There's a lot of support requests lately from newbies and ex-PPS miners who mined 12 or 24 hours on BitMinter and were horrified by low payouts. Some even think I am scamming them.

Short version: BitMinter pays you much more than most pools in the long run, but there may be some days with low payouts and payouts are delayed several hours after you do some work.

Long explanation:

DELAY: On BitMinter your work gets paid when we find new blocks as long as it is in one of the 10 latest shifts. Since 10 shifts take about 7.5 hours currently, that's how long it takes for your work to be fully paid. If you also turned off the prepay perk then you must wait for the blocks to be confirmed as well before you get income from them. That takes about 20 hours.

VARIANCE: In addition to this there is variance when mining with a PPLNS reward system. This means you get high payouts on a lucky day (when we find many blocks) and low payouts on an unlucky day.

BOTTOM LINE: Over time you will make more money mining with 1% fee on BitMinter than 5% fee on a PPS pool. If the occassional low payout makes you nervous then you may want to go with a PPS pool, even if you lose a lot of money in the long run. But remember that PPS pools in general don't pay out transaction fees, so you lose 1% to 2% more. Most don't have namecoins, so you lose over 8% there too (with current namecoin prices).

What looks like a 5% fee is then in reality a 15% fee. That is NOT better pay than BitMinter.

There's 3 reasons to choose a 15% fee over a 1% fee:
1. You desperately need the payout very quickly
2. You don't want money
3. You don't understand how the reward systems work

If it is #1 or #2 then fine. But please don't switch to a 15% fee pool because you don't yet understand what's going on.

If you thought you were shocked at the payouts when you didn't realize there's a delay, imagine my surprise at seeing miners pay a 15% fee with a big smile on their face while they tell me that my payouts suck. It boggles the mind.

▶▶▶ Bitminter.com - Your trusted mining pool since 2011.
willphase
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May 01, 2013, 11:06:48 PM
 #2878

Most don't have namecoins, so you lose over 8% there too (with current namecoin prices).

In fact, closer to 11% Smiley - source.

Will

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May 02, 2013, 02:14:03 AM
 #2879

Where is a reputable place to exchange Namecoin for BTC or fiat?

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May 02, 2013, 02:14:47 AM
 #2880

Where is a reputable place to exchange Namecoin for BTC or fiat?
https://btc-e.com/

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