Puppet
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September 19, 2013, 12:08:02 AM |
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You may want to calculate what happens when difficulty halves too, you know, for fun, but that wont change the fact there is somewhere around 20PH thats been preordered and miners expect to come on line before february.
It will probably take longer than that, but even if none of those 28nm chips become reality over the next 100 days, BFL alone still has around 3PH worth of undelivered orders. and bitfury is not going away either (wouldnt even count asicminer and avalon out just yet).
We just saw a dip in network speed, probably just random variation, but next difficulty is still projected to be +25% and thats before any of these new miners came online. 15% is a pipedream. You may as well calculate your winnings on satoshi dice based on the assumption you will have 5x more luck than average.
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"Bitcoin: mining our own business since 2009" -- Pieter Wuille
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philipma1957
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'The right to privacy matters'
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September 19, 2013, 12:20:32 AM |
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long term 20% is also not realistic. short term yes long term 1 year every 11 days at 20% will not happen
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cspindor
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Activity: 53
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September 19, 2013, 12:40:54 AM |
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help Please,
I have my blade up but I don't know where to point it?
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kano
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Activity: 4466
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Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
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September 19, 2013, 01:39:00 AM |
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long term 20% is also not realistic. short term yes long term 1 year every 11 days at 20% will not happen
Hmm 20% every 11.67days for 100 days = 20% for the next 8.57 diff changes 1.2^8.57 = 4.77 Current difficulty of 112,628,548.66634709 = 806.2389 Th So if in 100 days the network is 3846 Th (3.8 Ph) then 20% will be quite valid for the next 100 days Lets try 200 20% every 11.67days for 200 days = 20% for the next 17.1 diff changes 1.2^17.1 = 22.6 Current difficulty of 112,628,548.66634709 = 806.2389 Th So in 200 days the network would have to be 18221 Th (18.2 Ph) Hmmm - not sure - depends on all the promises that are out there at the moment - most of which end up being somewhat empty so far  However, over the short term, the network is indeed jumping avg >30% - it has for the last 4 (and avg >20% for the last 10) |
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Stack
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September 19, 2013, 01:44:12 AM |
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help Please,
I have my blade up but I don't know where to point it?
servers= mint.bitminter.com,mint.bitminter.com ports= 8332,8332 credentials= Username_Worker:Password,Username_Worker:Password That connects directly to this pool from the blade. But personally I use a stratum proxy because it keeps the hashrate high & stable. seems to drop low at times connecting directly with the blade. For more help with blade configuration try this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=205369.0 |
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philipma1957
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'The right to privacy matters'
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September 19, 2013, 03:29:30 AM |
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Yeah 100 days jumps of 20 % up yes 365 days jumps of 20% no The key is under 150 days of 20% or more then 200 or days of 20% . long term 20% is also not realistic. short term yes long term 1 year every 11 days at 20% will not happen
Hmm 20% every 11.67days for 100 days = 20% for the next 8.57 diff changes 1.2^8.57 = 4.77 Current difficulty of 112,628,548.66634709 = 806.2389 Th So if in 100 days the network is 3846 Th (3.8 Ph) then 20% will be quite valid for the next 100 days Lets try 200 20% every 11.67days for 200 days = 20% for the next 17.1 diff changes 1.2^17.1 = 22.6 Current difficulty of 112,628,548.66634709 = 806.2389 Th So in 200 days the network would have to be 18221 Th (18.2 Ph) Hmmm - not sure - depends on all the promises that are out there at the moment - most of which end up being somewhat empty so far However, over the short term, the network is indeed jumping avg >30% - it has for the last 4 (and avg >20% for the last 10) |
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tripppn
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September 19, 2013, 04:25:16 AM |
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I have only been in the mining side of bitcoin for a month. Is this a common day? 3 stale in one day? WTH is going on?? It's bad enough that I read all the bad quotes about the am stick I apparently wasted my bc on, Now this! (Bitcoin will die if this don't get better) FRUSTRATIONS!!!&%*#@@&!! That's all for now
By the way Doc, thanx for all you do to keep this easy for the programing challaged!
BUMP! Is something wrong or just bad luck? |
“You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline - it helps if you have some kind of football team, or some nuclear weapons, but in the very least you need a beer.”
― Frank Zappa
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Puppet
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September 19, 2013, 06:01:17 AM |
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long term 20% is also not realistic. short term yes long term 1 year every 11 days at 20% will not happen
See Kano's post. 200 days of 20% is just 18 PH. Thats about whats sold and promised before the end of January. And thats just the start of this 28nm transition. Of course this wont last forever but at just 18PH you can kiss your ROI goodbye, and by my estimation, difficulty wont taper off until we are well above 100PH:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=295270.0 |
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TheQuin
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September 19, 2013, 06:10:06 AM |
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I have only been in the mining side of bitcoin for a month. Is this a common day? 3 stale in one day? WTH is going on?? It's bad enough that I read all the bad quotes about the am stick I apparently wasted my bc on, Now this! (Bitcoin will die if this don't get better) FRUSTRATIONS!!!&%*#@@&!! That's all for now
By the way Doc, thanx for all you do to keep this easy for the programing challaged!
BUMP! Is something wrong or just bad luck? Already answered https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27062.msg3184154#msg3184154 |
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bronan
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September 19, 2013, 08:31:27 AM |
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People IF YOU POST ON IRC FOR HELP and just logoff after some time we can not help you We are all over the world and in all timeframes over the planet while some of you are awake others are snoring loudly You can not expect an instant answer there because most of the names hanging in the channel are there for different reasons If you do not keep your client connect to the irc chat those who are trying to help can not answer and help you find the solution. The only way to get your problems solved is then post here on the forum, else keep the irc client connected and see questions and answered later posted on your issue/concerns and even on your comments. So do you dare to get some answers and are you not afraid of us then stay connected  |
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pulsar
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September 19, 2013, 12:19:58 PM |
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Why do me no longer accrue namecoins when I unplugged donate?
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DigitalHermit
Full Member
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Activity: 150
Merit: 100
Thank you! Thank you! ...
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September 19, 2013, 12:45:30 PM |
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Why do me no longer accrue namecoins when I unplugged donate?
Looking under the Statistics -> Blocks (Income) -> NMC Only: https://bitminter.com/blocks?commodity=NMCIt appears all Namecoin rewards for the past 12 hours are either marked as "Stale" or "Processing". Not sure what the deal is with that. |
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pulsar
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September 19, 2013, 01:11:51 PM |
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Why do me no longer accrue namecoins when I unplugged donate?
Looking under the Statistics -> Blocks (Income) -> NMC Only: https://bitminter.com/blocks?commodity=NMCIt appears all Namecoin rewards for the past 12 hours are either marked as "Stale" or "Processing". Not sure what the deal is with that. understood, thank you! |
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westkybitcoins
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1004
Firstbits: Compromised. Thanks, Android!
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September 19, 2013, 02:33:32 PM |
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You know, I hate bad luck just as much as anyone. But then strings like this: 258837 - 2013-09-19 12:07 - 54m - 23,995,425 - 112,628,548 - 19.2%
258828 - 2013-09-19 11:12 - 2h 19m - 61,116,371 - 112,628,548 - 41.9%
258806 - 2013-09-19 08:53 - 1h 02m - 27,446,209 - 112,628,548 - 21.6%
258797 - 2013-09-19 07:50 - 18m - 8,340,853 - 112,628,548 - 7.1%
258794 - 2013-09-19 07:31 - 3h 22m - 88,149,783 - 112,628,548 - 54.3%
258758 - 2013-09-19 04:09 - 1h 37m - 41,050,989 - 112,628,548 - 30.5%
258744 - 2013-09-19 02:32 - 59m - 25,689,517 - 112,628,548 - 20.4%
sure help ease the pain.  |
Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
... ... In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber... ... ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)... ... The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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cspindor
Newbie
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Activity: 53
Merit: 0
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September 19, 2013, 03:11:49 PM |
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there is a bitcoin god, thanks for the day of good luck.
I am having trouble getting my blade to work with bitminter. I used the login that was given on page 227. nothing happens. I got it to work on btcguild, but I would rather be using it here. any on have any thoughts? keep in mind I know nothing about programing. Doc is there a way for you to make the blade as easy as the usb am??
Thank you to all who help out us challage ones!!
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cet
Member
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Activity: 100
Merit: 10
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September 19, 2013, 03:40:59 PM |
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I am having trouble getting my blade to work with bitminter. I used the login that was given on page 227. nothing happens. I got it to work on btcguild, but I would rather be using it here. any on have any thoughts? keep in mind I know nothing about programing. Doc is there a way for you to make the blade as easy as the usb am??
DrHaribo posted some directions a while back that I think people have had luck with: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27062.msg3046129#msg3046129 |
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Jayjay04
Legendary
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Activity: 1364
Merit: 1000
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September 19, 2013, 04:14:54 PM |
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Honestly what is the problem with NMC ?!?!
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Jayjay04
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Activity: 1364
Merit: 1000
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September 19, 2013, 04:15:27 PM |
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12/20 Stale !
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aneutronic
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September 19, 2013, 04:18:33 PM |
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Any server issues this morning? I had a failed worker alert ~ 45 min ago but things seem ok on my end. My chart shows a dropout from the pool api and the data from the miner api looks good so I believe that should rule out my local lan at least. I won't vouch for my ISP though.  Also cgminer status didn't show any failover to the second pool but my last shift was a GH/s or 2 below my typical variance. |
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DigitalHermit
Full Member
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Activity: 150
Merit: 100
Thank you! Thank you! ...
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September 19, 2013, 04:25:38 PM |
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12/20 Stale !
Yes, highly improbable. Seems like a legitimate problem with the pool software of some kind. For example, what if the software responsible for broadcasting each NMC block is down, delayed, out of memory, timing out... basically preventing NMC blocks from being sent to the network in a timely manner. That would cause a problem like this. |
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