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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 921480 times)
oda.krell
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July 10, 2015, 06:05:16 PM
 #3121

Price action, volume, it all looks quite good to me... the problem is, bid side is depleting rapidly (stamp and finex), which makes me wonder how long this one will last.

Any thoughts on that, luc?

I don't have idea what is "bid side" in TA.

Ratio of total bids vs. total asks, for example.

Bitstamp




Bitfinex




Not a perfectly reliable indicator obviously ("hidden" coins/USD, orderbook being painted), but strong divergences (such as now) tend to show an effect, by my experience.

But I guess what you're saying is: fuck the order book? Cheesy

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pinky
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July 10, 2015, 06:16:37 PM
 #3122


But I guess what you're saying is: fuck the order book? Cheesy

People react in anticipation of price changes not on order book changes. Money will come if people think price is going up.



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BldSwtTrs
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July 10, 2015, 07:46:21 PM
 #3123

Seriously - Bitcoin is at top of a weekly bollinger band. If it stay here for few days - new short term bubble will start.
What would be a target price for that short term bubble?
masterluc
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July 10, 2015, 10:56:56 PM
 #3124

Seriously - Bitcoin is at top of a weekly bollinger band. If it stay here for few days - new short term bubble will start.
What would be a target price for that short term bubble?

Who knows? I can identify only reversal. Analyst job is hard


av123
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July 11, 2015, 12:13:12 AM
 #3125

Seriously - Bitcoin is at top of a weekly bollinger band. If it stay here for few days - new short term bubble will start.
What would be a target price for that short term bubble?

Who knows? I can identify only reversal. Analyst job is hard



You can't survive on selling bananas alone.
realdos
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July 11, 2015, 04:14:07 AM
 #3126

Seriously - Bitcoin is at top of a weekly bollinger band. If it stay here for few days - new short term bubble will start.
What would be a target price for that short term bubble?

Who knows? I can identify only reversal. Analyst job is hard

But you successfully predicted the bottom when the price fell from 300ish to 150.  Tongue
masterluc
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July 11, 2015, 05:07:12 AM
Last edit: July 11, 2015, 05:19:56 AM by masterluc
 #3127

I didn't. I said probably. Downtrend in Bitcoin isn't parabolic. I can't say it's over until price leave trend channel plus some indicators to identify start of strong reversal.

It was by this way:
1. I identified big bullish wedge and according to it's typical count assumed there should be throw over the bottom line and it should be a bottom. Actually it was. I declared LONG at 270.
2. Once price left wedge to upside - there was no blow up action - just flat. I suggested that there should be other hints leaving downtrend and started to monitor logarithmic trend. Along with that there was a possibility for new lows.
3. Silence period was prolonged and I discovered weekly sma200 at ~210 which looked as massive resistance and not gonna surrender. So the further path should be probably up like in 2012.
4. Then was clear impulsive move up to logarithmic trend line and break of it. And I said I see the moon.
5. Today is last week day and price is above weekly upper bb. And I say now we sit at  Cape Canaveral in a rocket of Appolo mission of new moon discovery. Operator counts down.

Parabolic top may be identified more accurately. Because once it stops acceleration - it will crash. In 2013 ATH first (266) and second (1200) I saw clear signs of slowing down rise acceleration and said it's over. And it was over less than day. 50% crash was after.

TLDR: I can't identify a bottom in it's time. I can identify bottom after price already far from it. But I can identify parabolic top, while price in it.

BTCtrader71
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July 11, 2015, 06:52:12 AM
 #3128

And I say now we sit at  Cape Canaveral in a rocket of Appolo mission of new moon discovery. Operator counts down.

Does the recent Litecoin pump play any role in your thoughts? It feels to me like it may have aroused some appetites, like an appetizer for the main course. A reminder that parabolic runs are not a thing of the past; and FOMO may be easier to trigger now in those who missed out on the Litecoin action.

BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
Wary
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July 11, 2015, 07:06:34 AM
 #3129


Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
8up
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July 11, 2015, 09:42:03 AM
 #3130

No rally in your graph just means -> rally postponed for some more month. Could very well live with that, as I am preparing to put a lot more monies into bitcoin by the end of the year.

Always wrong until not.
Wary
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July 11, 2015, 12:01:37 PM
 #3131

No rally in your graph just means -> rally postponed for some more month. Could very well live with that, as I am preparing to put a lot more monies into bitcoin by the end of the year.
Of course rally will come eventually. I'm just trying to figure out what to do now - to sell or not to sell Smiley

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
zby
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July 11, 2015, 07:28:46 PM
 #3132

And I say now we sit at  Cape Canaveral in a rocket of Appolo mission of new moon discovery. Operator counts down.

Does the recent Litecoin pump play any role in your thoughts? It feels to me like it may have aroused some appetites, like an appetizer for the main course. A reminder that parabolic runs are not a thing of the past; and FOMO may be easier to trigger now in those who missed out on the Litecoin action.


But the correction there also gives stuff to think about.
bitone
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July 11, 2015, 09:12:00 PM
 #3133

Luc, what do you predict the next ATH to be ?
Big. 1200 may be compared to final ATH in final wave like 31.2 compared to 1200. But it should be in up to 7-10 years.

And I say now we sit at  Cape Canaveral in a rocket of Appolo mission of new moon discovery. Operator counts down.

masterluc thank you so much for your advice and your estimates. What is your price estimate for this moon discovery? And at timeframe do you estimate that the rocket will land?


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masterluc
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July 11, 2015, 10:16:29 PM
 #3134

Bubble confirmed 99%. Fasten your belts.

Weekly rsi close above 50
Weekly SS also there
Weekly macd approaches to zero line
Weekly ADX on low start
Price close above weekly BB

Here we go.

Odalv
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July 11, 2015, 10:23:27 PM
 #3135

Bubble confirmed 99%. Fasten your belts.

Weekly rsi close above 50
Weekly SS also there
Weekly macd approaches to zero line
Weekly ADX on low start
Price close above weekly BB

Here we go.

I have never saw so bullish Lucif. Looks like he has sold his account.
masterluc
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July 11, 2015, 10:23:39 PM
 #3136

masterluc thank you so much for your advice and your estimates. What is your price estimate for this moon discovery? And at timeframe do you estimate that the rocket will land?

I expect bubble series in coming years. The first one starts now. First bubble target should be lower than ATH.

masterluc
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July 11, 2015, 10:25:26 PM
 #3137

I have never saw so bullish Lucif. Looks like he has sold his account.

Historical III on the way. I waited it since 2011.

btc4lifer
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July 11, 2015, 10:28:54 PM
 #3138

Price close above weekly BB

Don't we need Sunday evening to roll around to get weekly close above weekly upper bb?
BldSwtTrs
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July 11, 2015, 10:50:35 PM
 #3139

Luc, you make me happy.
ssmc2
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July 11, 2015, 10:55:13 PM
 #3140

Luc, you make me happy.

+1
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