Analysis

[AnonymousEconomist]

Don't PM me about next wave target estimations. I will not feed your greed. I don't know. Big. Period.

This is who you are all dickriding. Like I said, he has no idea what he is talking about.

Luc is not responding to your childishness because he has better things to do with his time. Everyone on this thread feels that way. You too know this to be true.

i didnt PM him. it was someone else. you are just ignorant.

the results show. i have received a gazillion PM's agreeing with me, so i dont need you idiotards. this is why you are all the 95% who dont make money. cuz you just dont know what you are talking about.

[1715282159]

1715282159

[akhentek]

+1 on the ignore. This is one of my favourite threads.  Thanks Luc.

[bitlind]

Don't PM me about next wave target estimations. I will not feed your greed. I don't know. Big. Period.

This is who you are all dickriding. Like I said, he has no idea what he is talking about.

Luc is not responding to your childishness because he has better things to do with his time. Everyone on this thread feels that way. You too know this to be true.

i didnt PM him. it was someone else. you are just ignorant.

the results show. i have received a gazillion PM's agreeing with me, so i dont need you idiotards. this is why you are all the 95% who dont make money. cuz you just dont know what you are talking about.

Just create your own thread and post in it.  There is your solution AE, no need to flame here

[StarenseN]

I have never saw so bullish Lucif. Looks like he has sold his account.

I do seem to recall him being similarly bullish at one point - in October 2013 just at the very start of the bubble rise to $1200.

Yeah this was pretty spot on.

I reviewed masterluc's posts in oct-dec '13 and I have to say, it was like reading a crystal ball. Here is luc calling the top on Dec 4:

I think it should reach $2k-$4k in near future in a final push, especially if it will draw a triangle now 7-14 days long.

But I don't want to take a part in further market actions. I reached all my targets, dreams and so on. And now I cashed out for 80%. Thanks China. Thanks US Senate. Thanks uncle Ben, I like your Franklins in my hands.

I think selling in wave 4 of final historical 5 is not bad. I left 20% coins for final wave.

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

Yes, it's once in lifetime epic event. And I am happy I was participated. Such stories live in generations.

I thought the end will have more epic start. Third day in a row I wake up, see charts and ask myself "Is this the end?" and third day in a row answer is "Yes".

This was indeed a great call from him, but...

Despite all the respect I have for masterluc/lucif and the great stuff he's taking care to share with us. You should know that everybody make mistakes and, like every of us, he already made some in the past like beeing a long lasting bear between december 2012 -february 2013[1] missing a big part of the first bubble of 2013 (i.e. short between 13 to 25$ and more)

I just wanted to remember that to the person who are blindly glorifying masterluc as the "chosen one" guru. At some point you could end complaining like this guy: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg1521185#msg1521185

And yeah it's part of the game. Do your homeworks first !!

[1] Check the 35 first pages of the first version of this thread called "yet another analyst" started by lucif/masterluc.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065

[lebing]

I have never saw so bullish Lucif. Looks like he has sold his account.

I do seem to recall him being similarly bullish at one point - in October 2013 just at the very start of the bubble rise to $1200.

Yeah this was pretty spot on.

I reviewed masterluc's posts in oct-dec '13 and I have to say, it was like reading a crystal ball. Here is luc calling the top on Dec 4:

I think it should reach $2k-$4k in near future in a final push, especially if it will draw a triangle now 7-14 days long.

But I don't want to take a part in further market actions. I reached all my targets, dreams and so on. And now I cashed out for 80%. Thanks China. Thanks US Senate. Thanks uncle Ben, I like your Franklins in my hands.

I think selling in wave 4 of final historical 5 is not bad. I left 20% coins for final wave.

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

Yes, it's once in lifetime epic event. And I am happy I was participated. Such stories live in generations.

I thought the end will have more epic start. Third day in a row I wake up, see charts and ask myself "Is this the end?" and third day in a row answer is "Yes".

This was indeed a great call from him, but...

Despite all the respect I have for masterluc/lucif and the great stuff he's taking care to share with us. You should know that everybody make mistakes and, like every of us, he already made some in the past like beeing a long lasting bear between december 2012 -february 2013[1] missing a big part of the first bubble of 2013 (i.e. short between 13 to 25$ and more)

I just wanted to remember that to the person who are blindly glorifying masterluc as the "chosen one" guru. At some point you could end complaining like this guy: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg1521185#msg1521185

And yeah it's part of the game. Do your homeworks first !!

[1] Check the 35 first pages of the first version of this thread called "yet another analyst" started by lucif/masterluc.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065

You will notice that I have been there since page 1 on his first thread and I'm still here listening to this guy. In fact, I have really come around to appreciating the fact that TA works because of guys like him. Noone is right 100% of the time, nor can they be expected to be. Having a slight edge is everything in trading and IMO Luc is one of the very few that have it.

[Miz4r]

Anyone who thinks any specific speculator on this forum is some kind of prophet and is always right is just too brainless for this game. I've seen many noobs worship someone who has made one or two good predictions on this forum, and then later on they get severely burned for blindly following their analysis to the letter. I've seen not one analyst making constant good predictions, the market is simply too unpredictable for that. What separates the good traders from the bad is good risk management and proper trade setups, not how well they can draw charts and make accurate predictions. Look at the trade simulator and see how many times people sell or buy at the wrong time, even the ones at the top make many mistakes. You just have to know when you are wrong. That said masterluc did make a few great calls in the past and he does seem to have a very keen market intuition, also I think he has grown and learned a lot since the beginning of 2013. But this doesn't mean he always is correct of course.

[masterluc]

Wow, here is a some sort of holy war about me.

Guys, I don't  have any communications with any professional traders and trading gamblers. I didn't studied at any financial lessons, except I was long term subscriber at s3052 and waveaddict and now learning more heavy elliottwave.com subscription.

I don't understand any trader I meet as well as them don't understand me.

I am a "sofa" trader and lonely wolf and counter-social element. The only reason I post this thread - is to throw out bulk information out of my head, read it and feedbacks and then systematize it back. And repeat.

This thread helps me to keep chaos in my head under control because I read megabytes a day. I don't need power, glory, prophecy or whatever. I just want to keep clear with lots of information. I share it with you along with my fear and my greed.

Without this thread I think I'd already was dead, because last bubble informational and emotional pressure put me in deep hypertensive crisis despite I earned a lot of money.

[lebing]

Without this thread I think I'd already was dead, because last bubble informational and emotional pressure put me in deep hypertensive crisis despite I earned a lot of money.

Sorry to hear that Lucif. Know that you are not alone with the burden that comes with such an experience. Thanks for doing what you do.

[BTCtrader71]

I am trying to learn some basics of EW theory from here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory
and would like to see if I am correctly interpreting the following statements.

wave 3 is invalidated if we hit a top ($370 - $600) and go down below $219 (estimate).

Wave 3 invalidated if wave 2 hit bellow start of wave 1. So it will be invalidated if Bitcoin goes below $0

If I understand correctly you are both applying Rule 1 (Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1), but at different degrees or levels. Luc is applying it at the highest level, i.e. the "Grand Supercycle," and Africoin is applying it at the next level down, i.e. the SuperCycle. One question I would have: in Africoin's analysis, wouldn't the start of wave 1 be in the 150-160 range from Jan 14, 2015? Or is it valid to place the start of Grand Supercycle Wave 3 (= the start of Super Cycle Wave 1) sometime in April-May-June 2015 even though this would be somewhere in the 210-220 range?

[StarenseN]

Wow, here is a some sort of holy war about me.

Guys, I don't  have any communications with any professional traders and trading gamblers. I didn't studied at any financial lessons, except I was long term subscriber at s3052 and waveaddict and now learning more heavy elliottwave.com subscription.

I don't understand any trader I meet as well as them don't understand me.

I am a "sofa" trader and lonely wolf and counter-social element. The only reason I post this thread - is to throw out bulk information out of my head, read it and feedbacks and then systematize it back. And repeat.

This thread helps me to keep chaos in my head under control because I read megabytes a day. I don't need power, glory, prophecy or whatever. I just want to keep clear with lots of information. I share it with you along with my fear and my greed.

Without this thread I think I'd already was dead, because last bubble informational and emotional pressure put me in deep hypertensive crisis despite I earned a lot of money.

I'm really sorry to hear that.

To make it clear and to be honest. Back in 2012 with your insights you gave me the envy of beeing a professionnal trader back in the days. Which I am now, so I can't thank as much as I can. I just wanted to make it clear, that some people needs to learn the hardway by themself and should not take anybody else advice as granted.

[Afrikoin]

I am trying to learn some basics of EW theory from here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory
and would like to see if I am correctly interpreting the following statements.

wave 3 is invalidated if we hit a top ($370 - $600) and go down below $219 (estimate).

Wave 3 invalidated if wave 2 hit bellow start of wave 1. So it will be invalidated if Bitcoin goes below $0

If I understand correctly you are both applying Rule 1 (Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1), but at different degrees or levels. Luc is applying it at the highest level, i.e. the "Grand Supercycle," and Africoin is applying it at the next level down, i.e. the SuperCycle.

No, Same level. in this case (below) $166 would be bottom and end of wave II (Grand). that is why i said dropping below $ 216 would invalidate.

Truth is, it wouldnt, sice wave I goes back to 0. Hence why master corrected me and said "Wave 3 invalidated if wave 2 hit bellow start of wave 1. So it will be invalidated if Bitcoin goes below $0" ie (Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1). perfectly within the rule.

[h3speros]

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

[Xiaoxiao]

Luc isn't infallible this time, I really odn't know!

[inca]

Luc isn't infallible this time, I really odn't know!

What do you mean, this time?

[Tzupy]

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names?
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

[8up]

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names?
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

Possible but unlikely. Agree with him, that the next move is up to ~700 - after that correction to 400.

[CoinBurner]

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM
cut

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names?
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

I sincerely hope RyNinDaCleM is wrong this time  anyway, it seems a perfectly reasonable count... A wave B ending at ~5-600 after summer 2016 could also fit in the block-halving-run market psychology, and then after that we could have the final wave C of Doom (or perhaps a truncated C to > 155?)

[h3speros]

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names?
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

[Miz4r]

I've seen that chart before, but don't think it will play out like that. If there is a lower low to come it will happen before the halving next year, unless some major problem comes up in Bitcoin which will overshadow the halving. Litecoin has already shown what will happen when halving gets close, so things can get pretty crazy next year.

[SmoothCurves]

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names?
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

Yeah that ABC correction doesn't look possible given the block reward halving and increasing global financial instability. Is Wave 2 really so short as to make this ABC chart more plausible?