Harris Vs Trump - Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[bbc.reporter]

Being a women seems to be her only achievement to boast off.

Actually she was also elected District Attorney of San Fransicso twice.  Then she was elected Attorney General of California twice.  Then she was elected to the US Senate, and then Vice President.

4 years of Biden presidency has damaged the United States a lot.

How so?  The United States economy recovered from Covid stronger than nearly every other country in the world when you consider inflation, gdp growth, unemployment, labor market, crime rates etc.  (I think Finland, Norway and Denmark are the only ones that had a stronger economy, perhaps there are a couple more you could argue, but the US was definitely towards the top of the list with a population that is greater than most countries combined)  

There will be more wars, more inflation, and more illegal immigration.

There probably will be more illegal (and legal) immigration.  But the "more wars" argument is just as silly as if I were to claim that if Trump were elected there would be more pandemics.  (also worth noting that a global pandemic results in less geopolitical violence, but not fewer deaths)

As for inflation, all of the economic policies Trump has been campaigning on have been inflationary.  There's a reason that when Trump was peaking between the assasination attempt and the RNC the US bond market shot up.  It's because all of his policies would cause more inflation, which would mean long term increased interest rates, which makes bonds more valuable.  Plus, Trump has a history of using his power to pressure the fed not to raise interest rates in the short term, which we all know is the most direct way to cause inflation.

Agreed on our argument on who caused more wars. This is very difficult to measure and compare on which candidate created or caused more wars. However, I reckon violence caused by a president United Stares of America can be measured on how much defense spending was made during a term and compare this with other former presidents' terms. We can be quite certain that defense spending has only increased on every presidential term. Trump's defense spending might be more than Obama's defense spending and Biden's is more than Trump's. The next president will certainly have more defense spending than Biden.

[Haunebu]

Given two candidates, you only would have 50/50 if you literally know nothing about them, not even their names.

The moment you start adding information about them, such as name, age, sex, history, etc, then clearly the current citizens of a given country will have different opinions about each candidate.

And those probabilities will keep changing based on the new facts and stories that happen before the elections.

Well said. If you ask me, I feel that the correct odds at the moment should be 2.0 for Trump and 2.0 for Harris excluding any vig obviously since they are pretty evenly matched at the moment.

Anyone saying either of them has better chances than the other are simply inserting their own bias into the probability equation. The sudden U-turn from Biden to Harris really helped boost Democrat chances though.

[nullama]

~snip~
Well said. If you ask me, I feel that the correct odds at the moment should be 2.0 for Trump and 2.0 for Harris excluding any vig obviously since they are pretty evenly matched at the moment.

Anyone saying either of them has better chances than the other are simply inserting their own bias into the probability equation. The sudden U-turn from Biden to Harris really helped boost Democrat chances though.

Before Kamala I would say that Trump was the favorite candidate based on what you see on the TV and social media.

After Kamala appeared, it seems that Trump has somehow went down a lot and I don't think he is getting any good numbers.

I am not sure what happened, but the change is massive.

[Sithara007]

Before Kamala I would say that Trump was the favorite candidate based on what you see on the TV and social media.

After Kamala appeared, it seems that Trump has somehow went down a lot and I don't think he is getting any good numbers.

I am not sure what happened, but the change is massive.

I am not sure whether the current opinion poll numbers can be trusted. Mainstream media is working around the clock to prop up Kamala. But even then, she is trailing in crucial states such as Pennsylvania and Arizona. Latest polls are showing her ahead in swing states such as Michigan, but again I am not taking these polls without skepticism. Back in 2016 also the same thing happened, and we all know how the results turned out. And the poll numbers are going to change completely after the first debate on 4th September.

[baeva]

~snip~
Well said. If you ask me, I feel that the correct odds at the moment should be 2.0 for Trump and 2.0 for Harris excluding any vig obviously since they are pretty evenly matched at the moment.

Anyone saying either of them has better chances than the other are simply inserting their own bias into the probability equation. The sudden U-turn from Biden to Harris really helped boost Democrat chances though.

Before Kamala I would say that Trump was the favorite candidate based on what you see on the TV and social media.

After Kamala appeared, it seems that Trump has somehow went down a lot and I don't think he is getting any good numbers.

I am not sure what happened, but the change is massive.

The election is almost three months away and things can change. Yes, Trump's numbers are down dramatically, but the way Kamala has been appearing in public lately and the things she has been saying that are not clear could have a huge impact on the final results. Moreover, according to Trump, Kamala has refused to do televised debates, which also undermines her credibility. At the moment, the odds are about even on betting platforms

[criptoevangelista]

~snip~
Well said. If you ask me, I feel that the correct odds at the moment should be 2.0 for Trump and 2.0 for Harris excluding any vig obviously since they are pretty evenly matched at the moment.

Anyone saying either of them has better chances than the other are simply inserting their own bias into the probability equation. The sudden U-turn from Biden to Harris really helped boost Democrat chances though.

Before Kamala I would say that Trump was the favorite candidate based on what you see on the TV and social media.

After Kamala appeared, it seems that Trump has somehow went down a lot and I don't think he is getting any good numbers.

I am not sure what happened, but the change is massive.

The election is almost three months away and things can change. Yes, Trump's numbers are down dramatically, but the way Kamala has been appearing in public lately and the things she has been saying that are not clear could have a huge impact on the final results. Moreover, according to Trump, Kamala has refused to do televised debates, which also undermines her credibility. At the moment, the odds are about even on betting platforms

This media maneuver to boost Kamala Harris' candidacy is very strange. Now they are putting widespread support on Barack Obama and Michelle Obama, including the slogan they used in the past "yes we can". Well, either the media is totally desperate and manipulating things or Kamala Harris really is the favorite. What a shame, because another left-wing government in the US is really complicated.

[Sithara007]

This media maneuver to boost Kamala Harris' candidacy is very strange. Now they are putting widespread support on Barack Obama and Michelle Obama, including the slogan they used in the past "yes we can". Well, either the media is totally desperate and manipulating things or Kamala Harris really is the favorite. What a shame, because another left-wing government in the US is really complicated.

It is not just the mainstream media. Search engines (esp. Google) and social media (esp. Facebook) are also roped in to give Kamala Harris a boost. If you search for Donald Trump in Google News, all you get is news articles related to Kamala. This may swing urban votes, but the magnitude is difficult to predict. Anyway, no amount of manipulation is going to work, in case Kamala performs poorly in the presidential debates. And the first one is just two weeks away (hosted by Fox News).   

[TwitchySeal]

This media maneuver to boost Kamala Harris' candidacy is very strange. Now they are putting widespread support on Barack Obama and Michelle Obama, including the slogan they used in the past "yes we can". Well, either the media is totally desperate and manipulating things or Kamala Harris really is the favorite. What a shame, because another left-wing government in the US is really complicated.

The DNC is this week.  Obama and his wife each gave a speech.  Remember the media covering all those republicans chanting Trumps name for 5 days in a row a few weeks ago?  That was because it was the RNC.

If you search for Donald Trump in Google News, all you get is news articles related to Kamala.

No you don't.  

Perhaps the media that you shouldn't trust is the same media that keeps telling you not to trust "the media".  It's a clever business strategy when you think about it.

This may swing urban votes, but the magnitude is difficult to predict. Anyway, no amount of manipulation is going to work,

Naturally the magnitude of baseless conspiracy theories are difficult to predict.  What's easy to predict though is if Kamala happens to win the election, and I'm not saying that that's definitely going to happen, but if she does win, and all the plans to only certify the election if it's a Trump victory don't work out, Trump will come up with some nonsense story backed by evidence that doesn't exist and the maga world will believe every word....or at least pretend like they believe it.  In fact, even if he does win, there's no doubt he will still tell some made up story that ends with him being cheated out of winning by even more than he did.

in case Kamala performs poorly in the presidential debates. And the first one is just two weeks away (hosted by Fox News).

I would be surprised if Kamala agreed to do something as stupid as allow Fox News to run a debate against Trump.

[gunhell16]

~snip~
Well said. If you ask me, I feel that the correct odds at the moment should be 2.0 for Trump and 2.0 for Harris excluding any vig obviously since they are pretty evenly matched at the moment.

Anyone saying either of them has better chances than the other are simply inserting their own bias into the probability equation. The sudden U-turn from Biden to Harris really helped boost Democrat chances though.

Before Kamala I would say that Trump was the favorite candidate based on what you see on the TV and social media.

After Kamala appeared, it seems that Trump has somehow went down a lot and I don't think he is getting any good numbers.

I am not sure what happened, but the change is massive.

The election is almost three months away and things can change. Yes, Trump's numbers are down dramatically, but the way Kamala has been appearing in public lately and the things she has been saying that are not clear could have a huge impact on the final results. Moreover, according to Trump, Kamala has refused to do televised debates, which also undermines her credibility. At the moment, the odds are about even on betting platforms

I think that will be known when the presidential debate is settled, because these events will be a big point for their voters as to who their constituent citizens will want. Right now, it's just speculation as to what will actually happen.

Although the tactics that Trump used in his advocacy of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency are also good, he knows that there are a large number of crypto communities in the country that he wants to lead again in his presidency if he wins.

[OgNasty]

It looks like the Harris honeymoon push is over and reality is setting back in. This is evidenced by Trump pulling away in the gambling markets once again. I’m glad I was able to get a couple bets in while he was considered an underdog. Obviously that wasn’t the case. I suspect the betting odds for Trump will continue to get worse the closer we get to the election.

[Sithara007]

It looks like the Harris honeymoon push is over and reality is setting back in. This is evidenced by Trump pulling away in the gambling markets once again. I’m glad I was able to get a couple bets in while he was considered an underdog. Obviously that wasn’t the case. I suspect the betting odds for Trump will continue to get worse the closer we get to the election.

Wait till the first presidential debate. That will be the game changer. And from what I heard, Kamala has refused to debate Trump during the planned debate on September 4th (Fox News). For how long she is going to run away from debating Trump? The biggest boost Trump received till date was after his debate with Biden. The same will happen when he debates with Kamala as well. Kamala's true colors will be out, and Trump is just going to destroy her. Her Marxist-Leninist policies are not compatible with the modern American society.

[el kaka22]

One of the things that differentiate the right and the left also here is the fact that ethnicity plays a role. While I know that EVERYONE in USA came from another nation (aside from natives which if you go further back I am sure they came from somewhere else too anyway) it still feels more "American recently vs not" topic.

You may see this as racist if you are a normal human being, but if you see Trump as white male American, and you see Kamala as "came from another place", that is a thing. Like how Barrack Husein Obama was "Kenyan" to many people, including trump himself, and was mocked and that is why he wanted to become the president as a revenge. So in this case we are seeing "American vs not" for some right wingers.

[o48o]

This media maneuver to boost Kamala Harris' candidacy is very strange. Now they are putting widespread support on Barack Obama and Michelle Obama, including the slogan they used in the past "yes we can". Well, either the media is totally desperate and manipulating things or Kamala Harris really is the favorite. What a shame, because another left-wing government in the US is really complicated.

Your point doesn't make any sense. How is media putting Barak Obama and Michelle Obama to support Kamala? You are giving way too much credit for some random tv channels, if they all can coordinate and just fake that DNC speech without getting caught. That's weird way to think how news work.

How wouldn't this be case of occam's razor and why democrats wouldn't actually be hyped up that they have a better president candidate?

Also he said "yes she can", not "yes we can". And speaking about old slogans; weren't trump campaign doing "make america great again" again? I mean it's an acronym that reads in red baseball caps of their cult members.

[Numeral]

It is noteworthy that both US presidential candidates have started actively speculating on the topic of cryptocurrencies. Donald Trump is a trendsetter in this regard, he has already been very active in this field. Perhaps even too brightly, but so far it is all rhetoric. Kamala Harris also could not stay away from such an urgent topic for many Americans. As a result, we see her endorsement and communication of support for the crypto industry in various media outlets, including profile media like CoinTelegraph.

It seems to me that this criterion will be one of the important ones when assessing the odds by bookmakers. Whoever of the presidential candidates can succeed in convincing the audience about the development of the crypto industry in the US will have better odds from the bookmakers.

[uneng]

I don't see Kamala winning the election. If she was really strong, like the media is trying to label, she would be the natural democract candidate since the beginning of the elections, what means the party wouldn't have needed to expose an elder man with cognitive issues to ridiculous situations to be mocked by the global audience. In every cases, the impact for world doesn't look favourable. Chaos and decadence come as consequence of having Trump or Kamala as president of the USA.

Trump can raise Putin's confidence on their plans of invading Europe, as he has already said to not support NATO's countries which don't contribute with a considerable sum of money to the organization. On the other hand, democrats are destroying the country from inside through moral relativism, so it's not good either.

The only advantage of Trump as president is that it must boost Bitcoin price on short run, as the market is bullish around his figure. However, on long term it's going to be negative for BTC anyway, since nothing Trump is promising regards Bitcoin is going to be implemented for real.

[pawel7777]

Trump can raise Putin's confidence on their plans of invading Europe, as he has already said to not support NATO's countries which don't contribute with a considerable sum of money to the organization.

How is forcing European countries to strengthen their militaries to be able to defend themselves more effectively increasing Putin's appetite for invading Europe?
If I'm not mistaken it was agreed that each country would spend a minimum of 2% of their GDP on defense (not to NATO, as you said), but many just didn't bother doing that, hoping that US will do all the work when shit hits the fan.
And I'm not a big fan of Putin, but the claims that he wants to invade Europe are a bit ridiculous. They can't even take control of the east parts of Ukraine, how would they invade and control much larger territories with a population exceeding their own 3 times? It's impossible to pull off. It's much easier and cheaper to get what they want from other countries by buying corrupt politicians.

[jossiel]

I don't see Kamala winning the election. If she was really strong, like the media is trying to label

The polls from the people are making the media look that this is a close battle. I'm not aware of how things go there in the US and I'm only basing my thoughts about what's shown by the media through their numbers.

In the bookies, it's Kamala who's the front liner and Trump is on the second. Still, the decision will be from the majority of each state then.

[fullhdpixel]

I think that will be known when the presidential debate is settled, because these events will be a big point for their voters as to who their constituent citizens will want. Right now, it's just speculation as to what will actually happen.

Although the tactics that Trump used in his advocacy of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency are also good, he knows that there are a large number of crypto communities in the country that he wants to lead again in his presidency if he wins.

I really do not feel like it is as big of a deal as the people think it is. Do you really think that after the debate the results will change? Like in a world where there is a debate and there is no debate, would those two different worlds would have two very different results? Enough to decide who will win the election? I feel like it may not be the case and I feel like we are not going to see much change. Considering the election is in November and Trump has run away so far, I feel like it may not even happen.

Trump got super shocked when Biden stepped down and Kamala took the place, and he still hasn't recovered and feels like it is going to be nothing that easy, it feels like there is a possibility that we are going to keep seeing this. Which is why I think it is going to be hard to handle the situation for Trump, he may crack under pressure because he wasn't ready for this and he is going to just be waiting for the result as much as he can without doing much.

[avp2306]

I think that will be known when the presidential debate is settled, because these events will be a big point for their voters as to who their constituent citizens will want. Right now, it's just speculation as to what will actually happen.

Although the tactics that Trump used in his advocacy of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency are also good, he knows that there are a large number of crypto communities in the country that he wants to lead again in his presidency if he wins.

I really do not feel like it is as big of a deal as the people think it is. Do you really think that after the debate the results will change? Like in a world where there is a debate and there is no debate, would those two different worlds would have two very different results? Enough to decide who will win the election? I feel like it may not be the case and I feel like we are not going to see much change. Considering the election is in November and Trump has run away so far, I feel like it may not even happen.

Trump got super shocked when Biden stepped down and Kamala took the place, and he still hasn't recovered and feels like it is going to be nothing that easy, it feels like there is a possibility that we are going to keep seeing this. Which is why I think it is going to be hard to handle the situation for Trump, he may crack under pressure because he wasn't ready for this and he is going to just be waiting for the result as much as he can without doing much.

Exactly since there's nothing will be change on a die hard supporter perspective since whatever result shown for sure they would still vote their favorite candidate. Only the decisions of those undecided individual will be change but provably that cannot affect their candidacy. But even though with those cases its still good to watch their debate since we could able to see which of these two candidate have something nice to say or maybe we could see something good that people can benefit with.


Maybe he got surprised on that happening that's and they should adapt to the changes happen since its like Kamala Harris is not the same with Biden since if we base it on Polls she got good support and I think the current happening create good hype to their party. Although we now that what media or those survey company shows is questionable. But have strong feeling that Trump really have the momentum despite of what they are projecting to us.

[Sithara007]

The polls from the people are making the media look that this is a close battle. I'm not aware of how things go there in the US and I'm only basing my thoughts about what's shown by the media through their numbers.

In the bookies, it's Kamala who's the front liner and Trump is on the second. Still, the decision will be from the majority of each state then.

As per the bookies, Kamala is trailing behind Trump by a sizable margin. Where did you saw that Kamala is ahead? The aggregate of polls in RCP shows Trump with 287 electoral votes, and Kamala with 251.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

In terms of popular vote, Harris is ahead by 1.5%, but that hardly matters. Due to the presence of deep blue states, it is very much possible for Kamala to win the popular vote, and yet lose the electoral vote (and that's what happened in 2016, when Hillary won the popular vote and still lost the electoral college to Trump by a margin of 304 vs 227).