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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807103 times)
smooth
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February 24, 2015, 10:57:53 PM
 #21541



The lack of understanding continues right up to the eve of Ethereum's planned release. No comprehension of the ledger, still thinking in terms of "tokens" and "blockchain tech is the important thing, not the money."

I think part of the reason this view exists is most people do not properly understand scarcity or what scarcity truly means, largely because western society has not experienced scarcity for several generations. If you don't understand scarcity it is easy to brush off the value of BTC and focus on the Blockchain.

Since the FED was created there has been no scarcity for money and this coincided with both an energy and a technology boom which resulted in an abundance of energy, materials, steel, plastics, goods, etc. We have lived in an age of utter abundance for generations. With that has come a cavalier attitude toward money and basic goods. (Yes we have inequality and people lacking access to both food and money, but because of the central bank printer governments can fund a large safety net, no one really worries that they will starve because food stamps and disability will kick in).

Few today really understand how scarce goods behave, because there are very few truly scarce goods today. Land is another example of a scarce good, but I'm not sure what else.

Bitcoin however is the perfect example of a scarce good. The last bubble started at the same time as ASIC mining took off, which meant that for a while most mined coins were held and not sold. The result was a price spike that no one could stop. That is increasing demand against a scarce good.

That may be part of the reason people don't understand the value of strong hard money. However, it is different from the reason they don't understand why a blockchain without an integrated currency (not subcurencies, tokens, or assets) doesn't work, as Joe Coin explained well enough. That's just ignorance coupled with for example in Vitalik's case bit of wanting to do something different and pray it pays off because its supposedly unfair that it is too late (his words, paraphrasing) to be an early adopter of Bitcoin. That's a rather sad misconception because if Bitcoin works buying at 1000 USD (much less 200 USD) still means a 1 000x return or more.

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February 24, 2015, 11:07:58 PM
 #21542

Buterin is right.
Distributed ledgers can be useful, cryptocurrencies, not really.

Only in a proof-of-work/proof-of-stake system you need a coin (that doesn't have a point as a currency and brings more problems than it tries to solve) to secure a distributed network.



Regarding scarcity: bitcoin's scarcity is 100% artificial. If you want to compare it to gold:

-Gold as a material is not replaceable, bitcoin is theoretically replaceable by any shitcoin.
-Gold has intrinsic value (Jewellery industry), bitcoin has no intrinsic value at all.



I'm far from being a gold bug (I don't give two shits about gold/silver or austian economics in general, actually), but I just can see that the comparison doesn't make sense.
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February 24, 2015, 11:21:55 PM
 #21543

One chart says it all. Bitcoin transaction volume in USD:


https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


Lowest level since may 2014.

Not used for (legal) uses as a currency, but mostly as a speculative get rich quick instrument.

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February 24, 2015, 11:25:46 PM
 #21544

Buterin is right.
Distributed ledgers can be useful, cryptocurrencies, not really.

Only in a proof-of-work/proof-of-stake system you need a coin (that doesn't have a point and brings more problems than it tries to solve) to secure the network.

Also, bitcoin's scarcity is 100% artificial. If you want to compare it to gold:

-Gold as a material is not replaceable, bitcoin is theoretically replaceable by any shitcoin.
-Gold has intrinsic value (Jewellery industry), bitcoin has no intrinsic value at all.



I'm far from being a gold bug (I don't give two shits about gold/silver or austian economics in general, actually), but I just can see that the comparison doesn't make sense.

  • Distributed ledgers are not possible without a native token. At least not in a desirable, decentralized way.
  • It does have a point. The point being to solve the Byzantine Consensus problem.
  • Mathematically enforced scarcity ­is much better than physical scarcity.
  • People wear gold around their neck because it is valuable, not the other way around. There was once a time were king's crowns were made out of aluminium
  • There is no such thing as "intrinsic value"

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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February 24, 2015, 11:28:45 PM
 #21545

Intersting thread! It's so much nicer in here than the wall observer. I might be able to learn something from the seniors here. go bitcoin!
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February 24, 2015, 11:35:19 PM
 #21546

Intersting thread! It's so much nicer in here than the wall observer. I might be able to learn something from the seniors here. go bitcoin!

thanks.  i try to keep it level-headed, technical, and intellectual.  takes alot of work and time but it is well worth it.  most of the guys in here have been around from the beginning, know their stuff, and have the ability to engage in abstract thought.

unfortunately we have to put up with the likes of NJHJT and NLC from time to time.
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February 24, 2015, 11:40:32 PM
 #21547

you can see that we formed a proper, highly capitulative bottom on 1/14.  the long term MACD continues to strengthen:

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February 24, 2015, 11:46:13 PM
 #21548

Buterin is right.
Distributed ledgers can be useful, cryptocurrencies, not really.

Only in a proof-of-work/proof-of-stake system you need a coin (that doesn't have a point and brings more problems than it tries to solve) to secure the network.

Also, bitcoin's scarcity is 100% artificial. If you want to compare it to gold:

-Gold as a material is not replaceable, bitcoin is theoretically replaceable by any shitcoin.
-Gold has intrinsic value (Jewellery industry), bitcoin has no intrinsic value at all.



I'm far from being a gold bug (I don't give two shits about gold/silver or austian economics in general, actually), but I just can see that the comparison doesn't make sense.

  • Distributed ledgers are not possible without a native token. At least not in a desirable, decentralized way.
  • It does have a point. The point being to solve the Byzantine Consensus problem.
  • Mathematically enforced scarcity ­is much better than physical scarcity.
  • People wear gold around their neck because it is valuable, not the other way around. There was once a time were king's crowns were made out of aluminium
  • There is no such thing as "intrinsic value"


  • The ripple network using the consensus protocol doesn't need an overpriced token to secure the network. Same for Hyperledger and others. The bitcoin network claims to be decentralised but mining centralisation (for example the possibility of mining cartels and not knowing if the same entities own different mining pools) issues undermine such narratives. Also, 100% decentralisation is preferable only by bitcoin cultists
  • can be solved in ways that don't force you to adopt a volatile, irreversible, unusable currency only paranoid libertarians, get rich quick schemers and drug dealers need.
  • and why is that? It just makes it 100% arbitrary and artificial
  • Sure, when the earth will be a wasteland and mankind is over gold won't be valuable. But right now gold has intrinsic value for the Jewellery industry, people use it for itself not just as medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value. Bitcoin has literally less intrinsic value than baseball cards or beanie babies
  • yes there is, if people use it for itself and not just as medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value
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February 24, 2015, 11:56:01 PM
 #21549

you can see that we formed a proper, highly capitulative bottom on 1/14.  the long term MACD continues to strengthen:


1. It's high volume only because price is lower (1k BTC at $1200 ≠ 1k BTC at $250). Check the volume on USD and poof, no difference:




2. Last time the 1 week MACD shifted to green, it was at $650-$680 right before the crash.
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February 24, 2015, 11:57:29 PM
 #21550

Buterin is right.
Distributed ledgers can be useful, cryptocurrencies, not really.

Only in a proof-of-work/proof-of-stake system you need a coin (that doesn't have a point and brings more problems than it tries to solve) to secure the network.

Also, bitcoin's scarcity is 100% artificial. If you want to compare it to gold:

-Gold as a material is not replaceable, bitcoin is theoretically replaceable by any shitcoin.
-Gold has intrinsic value (Jewellery industry), bitcoin has no intrinsic value at all.


I'm far from being a gold bug (I don't give two shits about gold/silver or austian economics in general, actually), but I just can see that the comparison doesn't make sense.

  • The ripple network using the consensus protocol doesn't need an overpriced token to secure the network. Same for Hyperledger and others. The bitcoin network claims to be decentralised but mining centralisation issues undermine such narratives. Also, 100% decentralisation is preferable only by bitcoin cultists
Ripple, hyperledger are centralized schemes. They do not compare to Bitcoin. Mining centralization, despite "narratives" by less-than-honest individuals, has yet to be a "problem" or cause any harm to the system. In reality it can be argued that the network & mining is increasingly decentralized.


  • can be solved in ways that don't force you to adopt a currency only paranoid libertarians and drug dealers need.
Prove it


  • and why is that? It just makes it 100% arbitrary and artificial
Because asteroids mining etc.

  • Sure, when the earth will be a wasteland and mankind is over gold won't be valuable. But right now gold has intrinsic value for the Jewellery industry, people use it for itself not just as medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value
"intrinsic value for the jewellery industry" lulz

  • yes there is, if people use it for itself and not just as medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value
whatever, that has nothing to do with the portrayed value of gold. its malleability or the fact that its shiny does not make it better money. "intrinsic value" if such a thing exist, is not a requirement of sound money.



"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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February 25, 2015, 12:06:21 AM
 #21551

-I repeat, 100% decentralisation (even tho bitcoin is not) is preferable only by bitcoin cultists. RL can't force transactions on anyone on the network and the network can be run by other individuals with a network of validators even if RL were to fail tomorrow, that's as much decentralisation as you need. The rest is cultists stuff.
-See above.
-doesn't change the fact that is artificial and 100% replacable by any shitcoin. Gold is not.
-It is used for itself, what more do you need me to say?
-In case you didn't get it, I don't give a shit about "sound money" austrian economics bullshit, I don't give a shit about gold and I don't think gold is better money (lol) than fiat currencies. I just can see that the comparison bitcoin-gold doesn't make sense.
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February 25, 2015, 12:23:56 AM
 #21552

you can see that we formed a proper, highly capitulative bottom on 1/14.  the long term MACD continues to strengthen:


1. It's high volume only because price is lower (1k BTC at $1200 ≠ 1k BTC at $250). Check the volume on USD and poof, no difference:




2. Last time the 1 week MACD shifted to green, it was at $650-$680 right before the crash.

price is strengthening.  no two ways about it.
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February 25, 2015, 12:27:49 AM
 #21553

-I repeat, 100% decentralisation (even tho bitcoin is not) is preferable only by bitcoin cultists. RL can't force transactions on anyone on the network and the network can be run by other individuals with a network of validators even if RL were to fail tomorrow, that's as much decentralisation as you need. The rest is cultists stuff.
-See above.
-doesn't change the fact that is artificial and 100% replacable by any shitcoin. Gold is not.
-It is used for itself, what more do you need me to say?
-In case you didn't get it, I don't give a shit about "sound money" austrian economics bullshit, I don't give a shit about gold and I don't think gold is better money (lol) than fiat currencies. I just can see that the comparison bitcoin-gold doesn't make sense.

no one cares what you repeat.  no one's listening to you.

Ripple is a failure.  just a couple of months ago all the gatesways had to defer to one centralized gateway b/c of network problems.  nothing that catastrophic has ever happened to Bitcoin.  plus it's all based on debt, another huge problem.
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February 25, 2015, 12:45:17 AM
 #21554

-I repeat, 100% decentralisation (even tho bitcoin is not) is preferable only by bitcoin cultists. RL can't force transactions on anyone on the network and the network can be run by other individuals with a network of validators even if RL were to fail tomorrow, that's as much decentralisation as you need. The rest is cultists stuff.
-See above.
-doesn't change the fact that is artificial and 100% replacable by any shitcoin. Gold is not.
-It is used for itself, what more do you need me to say?
-In case you didn't get it, I don't give a shit about "sound money" austrian economics bullshit, I don't give a shit about gold and I don't think gold is better money (lol) than fiat currencies. I just can see that the comparison bitcoin-gold doesn't make sense.

no one cares what you repeat.  no one's listening to you.

Ripple is a failure.  just a couple of months ago all the gatesways had to defer to one centralized gateway b/c of network problems.  nothing that catastrophic has ever happened to Bitcoin.  plus it's all based on debt, another huge problem.
Last time I checked gateways worked just fine and they can't undermine the trust-less nature of the transactions. "Trust" comes into play because gateways hold your fiat currencies in the network for you, which solves the irreversibility problem of bitcoin. Irreversibility is a BIG problem, and makes bitcoin perfect for scammers.
For the record, I am not endorsing or shilling for ripple, I just take it as an example that you CAN have distributed ledger technology without being forced to adopt an overpriced cryptocurrency.
I would use Hyperledger as an example more, but they are still working on it.

"plus it's all based on debt, another huge problem."
^Your idea of an alternative is a fairy tale that can't work in today's world.
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February 25, 2015, 12:48:11 AM
 #21555

If I may: isn't the interesting part of this the coordinated fud attacks?
Yes, very interesting indeed. It's clear that bankers are organising FUD attacks on this forum and want to convince you that bitcoin is shit while they accumulate and send it to the moon while you're not watching.
It's obvious.

Go now, buy your BTCeanies BTCitcoinz before they do!





PS: Sorry guize, carry on  Grin
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February 25, 2015, 01:13:48 AM
 #21556

The amount of bitcoins the banksters have been able to coerce out from my hand since a year ago:

[size=600pt]0[/size]

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February 25, 2015, 01:29:34 AM
 #21557

The amount of bitcoins the bankstersbitcoiners have been able to coerce out from my hand since a year ago:

[size=600pt]0[/size]

Well then we will all just sit here and you can think about what you've done Angry

Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
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February 25, 2015, 01:32:07 AM
 #21558

Buterin is right.
Distributed ledgers can be useful, cryptocurrencies, not really.

There is no way to do a decentralized ledger without a currency. Satoshi invented a way to do one with a currency, and no one has come up with a way to remove that element and still have a viable system.

Distributed != decentralized though.

Google can build a distributed system supporting search and web applications by putting servers all over the world, but that is not decentralized. It is all controlled by Google.

You may argue that a decentralized ledger is not even useful, but that remains to be seen. It has never been tried before.
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February 25, 2015, 04:02:32 AM
 #21559

you can see that we formed a proper, highly capitulative bottom on 1/14.  the long term MACD continues to strengthen:


Man that looks like a sexy macd
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February 25, 2015, 04:49:31 AM
 #21560

In reality, there's no need ever to add more Bitcoins. It would make far more sense to add more decimal places to better facilitate micro payments as more and more economic energy piles into Bitcoin
There is no adding more decimal places. However, there is a proposal to move the period six columns to the right, ending up with two decimal places instead of eight. The resulting unit is to be called a bit, composed of a hundred satoshi. 1.00000000 BTC (one Bitcoin) = 1,000,000.00 bits (one million bits and 0 satoshi) = 100,000,000 satoshi (one hundred million satoshi).

Thus, if you have a total balance of, say, 7.05893808 BTC, that is equivalent to 7,058,398.08 bits (seven million, fifty eight thousand, 398 bits with 8 satoshi, which is something you can actually pronounce).

Note that, if we switched to speaking about bits, the current exchange rate would be around 4,000 bits per USD (if we assume $250 USD/BTC). As in, right now you could buy yourself over 40,000 bits for $10.

Also note that, if 1 bit were worth 1 dollar, or equivalently, if 1 satoshi were worth 1 penny, then 1 BTC = 1 million USD.

One of the reasons to increase the total number of coins is to remove the long-term deflation pressure. That is one of the issues possibly affecting Bitcoin that is pointed out by Varoufakis.
If you have come to the conclusion that long-term deflation is an issue for Bitcoin, you are free to join Varoufakis in staying away from it. Fixed money supply is a central and deliberate aspect of the protocol, well-thought out, and effectively unchangeable in the foreseable future.


Quote from: V. Buterin (on Twitter)
blockchains are a friggin database technology, 5 years down I doubt any users will care what the underlying network token is.
Not inclined to take predictions for the next 5 years by someone born in 1994 and who has an obvious stake in one particular outcome.
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