[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

Monkey is seeing 4 more weeks of XBTUSD strength (and likely XMRXBT weakness) before a technical turn. On the other hand, DXY strength is likely to return in 3 days time, which could nip the XBTUSD run if it is very strong -- and it is looking likely to be very strong.  That would reverse the significance of the correlation, and be bullish for XMRUSD, XMRXBT alike.  If that happens I might squeeze XMR, just for fun.  Personally, I moved a lot today:  Filled in wheat at 504.2, short GCZ5, short SPZ5, short CLZ5, short EEM, all for a 1-2 week swing.  I might short EWP, EWQ as well if I see any strength over the next few days, but that seems unlikely.

[jehst]

Monkey is seeing 4 more weeks of XBTUSD strength (and likely XMRXBT weakness) before a technical turn. On the other hand, DXY strength is likely to return in 3 days time, which could nip the XBTUSD run if it is very strong -- and it is looking likely to be very strong.  That would reverse the significance of the correlation, and be bullish for XMRUSD, XMRXBT alike.  If that happens I might squeeze XMR, just for fun.  Personally, I moved a lot today:  Filled in wheat at 504.2, short GCZ5, short SPZ5, short CLZ5, short EEM, all for a 1-2 week swing.  I might short EWP, EWQ as well if I see any strength over the next few days, but that seems unlikely.

You've been on a losing streak with the short-term predictions, amino. And there's no shame in that. I made a terrible call in March/April. The short-term is bumpy. I'm more interested in where you see BTC and XMR post-halving. What do you think?

EDIT: Did I just become a Hero member at 490 posts?
I'll be just another "bought and paid for Hero account supporting XMR,"

[aminorex]

You've been on a losing streak with the short-term predictions, amino. And there's no shame in that. I made a terrible call in March/April. The short-term is bumpy. I'm more interested in where you see BTC and XMR post-halving. What do you think?

EDIT: Did I just become a Hero member at 490 posts?
I'll be just another "bought and paid for Hero account supporting XMR,"

Funny you should say that.  I thought I was on an amazing roll.  (And have a trading record which reinforces that idea.)  The EURNOK thing was really my only loser (which was pretty awful, but I was able to make up for it elsewhere).  Just goes to show that telegraphic model transmission is a losing game.  If you have a moment to enumerate the data points which led you to consider my short-term prediction performance to be negative, do please PM me, as it will help me tune my communication strategy, but is OT here.

[EDIT:]

I get it.  You mean my speculations on XMR pricing.  Yeah, those suck.  All my predictors are low correlation in XMR land.

[jehst]

You've been on a losing streak with the short-term predictions, amino. And there's no shame in that. I made a terrible call in March/April. The short-term is bumpy. I'm more interested in where you see BTC and XMR post-halving. What do you think?

EDIT: Did I just become a Hero member at 490 posts?
I'll be just another "bought and paid for Hero account supporting XMR,"

Funny you should say that.  I thought I was on an amazing roll.  (And have a trading record which reinforces that idea.)  The EURNOK thing was really my only loser (which was pretty awful, but I was able to make up for it elsewhere).  Just goes to show that telegraphic model transmission is a losing game.  If you have a moment to enumerate the data points which led you to consider my short-term prediction performance to be negative, do please PM me, as it will help me tune my communication strategy, but is OT here.

I haven't been writing down your preds or anything, but I just remember you were long on wheat short term or were looking for a short-term bounce and it's just been perma-plummeting.

So to keep it ontopic, what do you think about the halving? Will it have a significant effect on XTC:USD and XBT:XMR?

[tifozi]

There is a reference Python Code for Ring CT, probably easier to understand than the whitepaper

Code:

https://github.com/ShenNoether/MiniNero/blob/master/Ring_CT.py

Haven't seen or heard from tacotime in a long time. Is he still active in XMR development?

[dEBRUYNE]

Haven't seen or heard from tacotime in a long time. Is he still active in XMR development?

Someone else and me asked this two months ago as well. He is still active, just less public:

There's been some discussion on this somewhere in the past, I thought it became a "tacoshi" in reference to the dev tacotime.

edit: found this https://moneroeconomy.com/news/submultiples-monero

When was the last time tacotime did anything remotely related to monero? Serious question.


EDIT: Why not call the smallest Monero denomination... a Nero.

I would appreciate an answer to this as well.

At 2am today (my time)  -


[01:53:09] <tacotime> https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-josefsson-eddsa-ed25519-03#section-5.6
[01:53:36] <tacotime> there's a step where you get r from SHA-512(prefix || M)
[01:54:10] <tacotime> where prefix is SHA-512(secret)[32:64]
[01:57:48] <tacotime> (the first half of the prefix is used to generate the scalar to use as a private key)
[01:58:08] <tacotime> my question is, can't prefix be anything and the won't the signature still be valid if it is?
[01:58:21] <tacotime> and is there any reason that doing this would be dangerous?
[01:59:27] <tacotime> i realize that if you use a bad value it might be like choosing a bad K in general
[01:59:38] <tacotime> but if your value is securely chosen, is it safe?
[02:34:26] <tacotime> and also
[02:34:26] <tacotime> is it possible to construct hd keychains from ed25519 private scalars? i don't really thing it is because there are four required bits that need to be set for an ed25519 scalar to be valid in terms of generating a signature
[02:34:26] <tacotime> i kinda wonder if there's a way around that though
[02:34:29] <tacotime> normally for an hd keychain you += hash(pubkey || index) to both the private scalar and public point
[02:35:38] <tacotime> so to get priv_i and pub_i
[02:36:06] <tacotime> priv_i = (priv + hash) mod N
[02:37:17] <tacotime> pub_i = (pub + scalarbasemult(hash))
[02:38:16] <tacotime> and how come monero doesn't run into this issue when it generates private keys through ecdh? does monero allow these scalars to be legal with the bits set anyway?
[02:38:37] <tacotime> because you'd expect 1 in every 2^4 scalars for any given derived keypair to be invalid
[02:38:42] <tacotime> but i'm probably missing something
[02:59:03] <tacotime> okay i figured out the zeroing out of the 3 lsbs
[02:59:12] <tacotime> that's just *= the cofactor
[02:59:29] <tacotime> but you do need one bit to be set in the private key for it to be useable, right??
[03:00:22] <tacotime> so when you ecdh a corresponding secret to the recipient, how can you tell with 100% certainty that the private key they will derive has a single set bit in the 254th position??

In addition, a relevant comment from smooth:

Is he pretty active in the background of things?

He's but at the moment less than some times in the past.

The thing is we are all part time with various other demands on our time so each team member's activity level varies over time.

Take NoodleDoodle for example. He did the critical early work to optimizing (or de-unoptimizing and de-obfuscating if you want to call it that) the proof-of-work last year and you didn't hear much from him for a while, although he was still somewhat active behind the scenes. Then recently he did a huge amount of work to fix and optimize the database code. It's pretty much the same for every single one of us.

[Bagatell]

Haven't seen or heard from tacotime in a long time. Is he still active in XMR development?

Someone else and me asked this two months ago as well. He is still active, just less public:

That would apply to quite a few I think and not just in XMR.

[tifozi]

Thanks @dEBRUYNE

[klee]

We might have bottomed:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg12670950#msg12670950

[Harpua]

We might have bottomed:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg12670950#msg12670950

I never understood how to read those graphs... What do they mean, and how can you tell if something has "bottomed out" and can only go up from there?

[dEBRUYNE]

We might have bottomed:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg12670950#msg12670950

I never understood how to read those graphs... What do they mean, and how can you tell if something has "bottomed out" and can only go up from there?

I suggest to read this first -> http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/081303.asp. If you still have questions after that, you can direct them at klee (or me).

@klee, thanks for posting that here. I (and others probably as well) certainly appreciate that.

[klee]

We might have bottomed:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg12670950#msg12670950

I never understood how to read those graphs... What do they mean, and how can you tell if something has "bottomed out" and can only go up from there?

Ok, so we have the 1D RSI indicator of XMR in Point & Figure format.

RSI gives us an estimation that the market is oversold/overbought ( =<30 and >=70 respectively). If you go at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc try to find the RSI at Settings -> Indicator.

IMO, for alt coins the two timeframes that make sense (especially in XMR's case) are the 1d & 3d. So configure accordingly the chart.

So we see there that we have broken the 30 level for good and the price bounced above it briefly (1D) and now is standing almost on top of it. If we manage to continue rising towards the 50 level it means that we bottomed.

Enter P&F. The difference in the P&F RSI format is that we see more clearly that the RSI made a double bottom at 29 and broke out at 36 (at least when I drew the chart, afterwards it went back to 34). That is a bullish signal, meaning that the RSI 'price' managed to overcome resistance and it showed rising momentum. This combined with the fact that below 30 the market is considered oversold, are IMHO bullish signs.

As for the XMR P&F chart (1d CLOSE, log scale, 3% box size, reversal 3):
 
                                                            IGNORE the chart




We reversed from 0.00154911 at 0.00161201.
Support is 0.00156460-0.00158025, sell signal if we close below 0.00154911 (0.00153377).

Bearish resistance at 0.00174558-0.00176303, 0.00215123-0.00217274.

Watch out for the double top at 0.00221642 (strong resistance).

Heavy resistance between 0.00226097-0.00235277, free at 0.00237630 (provided that we will continue in the same X column).

EDIT: Forgot to mention that the buy signal is at 0.00179847

[klee]

We might have bottomed:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg12670950#msg12670950

I never understood how to read those graphs... What do they mean, and how can you tell if something has "bottomed out" and can only go up from there?

I suggest to read this first -> http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/081303.asp. If you still have questions after that, you can direct them at klee (or me).

@klee, thanks for posting that here. I (and others probably as well) certainly appreciate that.

You are welcome dEBRUYNE!

[owm123]

We might have bottomed:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.msg12670950#msg12670950

I never understood how to read those graphs... What do they mean, and how can you tell if something has "bottomed out" and can only go up from there?

Ok, so we have the 1D RSI indicator of XMR in Point & Figure format.

RSI gives us an estimation that the market is oversold/overbought ( =<30 and >=70 respectively). If you go at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc try to find the RSI at Settings -> Indicator.

IMO, for alt coins the two timeframes that make sense (especially in XMR's case) are the 1d & 3d. So configure accordingly the chart.

So we see there that we have broken the 30 level for good and the price bounced above it briefly (1D) and now is standing almost on top of it. If we manage to continue rising towards the 50 level it means that we bottomed.

Enter P&F. The difference in the P&F RSI format is that we see more clearly that the RSI made a double bottom at 29 and broke out at 36 (at least when I drew the chart, afterwards it went back to 34). That is a bullish signal, meaning that the RSI 'price' managed to overcome resistance and it showed rising momentum. This combined with the fact that below 30 the market is considered oversold, are IMHO bullish signs.

As for the XMR P&F chart (1d CLOSE, log scale, 3% box size, reversal 3):




We reversed from 0.00154911 at 0.00161201.
Support is 0.00156460-0.00158025, sell signal if we close below 0.00154911 (0.00153377).

Bearish resistance at 0.00174558-0.00176303, 0.00215123-0.00217274.

Watch out for the double top at 0.00221642 (strong resistance).

Heavy resistance between 0.00226097-0.00235277, free at 0.00237630 (provided that we will continue in the same X column).

EDIT: Forgot to mention that the buy signal is at 0.00179847

Thank you for this explanation, but still dont understand anything. Could you ELI5?

[nioc]

I was just taking a tour around the pools and see that dwarfpool lists their top 20 miners.  4 of the addresses start with Poloniex.com and one with Bittrex.com.  I take it that these are mining directly to the exchanges for selling.  The top 2 miners on dwarfpool each have over 15x the hash rate of #3 and one of those is a Polo address with a HR of 835KH/s.  The network is at 12MH/s so that one miner has 7% of the network HR and I assume this will all be sold.  All 5 of the exchange addresses listed = 920KH/s or 7.67% of the current network HR.

[aminorex]

I haven't been writing down your preds or anything, but I just remember you were long on wheat short term or were looking for a short-term bounce and it's just been perma-plummeting.

Wheat was tough sledding for a while, but I traded it well, no losses -- it went up before it went down, which is all the slack I needed to avoid a loss -- and it has done quite well for me today.  Fact is, my monkey is very, very smart, in the domains of FX,FI,Equities and Futures (not so much in crypto).  But that's just an edge, not a guarantee, and requires interpretation, which is all on me, and my wee, delusional brain.  It required years of losses to learn to interpret the monkey well, but at this point, I (when monkey-reinforced) am without a doubt the best market timer of whom I am aware, and pretty consistently profitable - not one down week this year, although many down days - yet still I have more than enough false starts, whipsaws, stop-losses, etc. to keep me humble and wary (relative to my naturally overweening arrogant baseline, of course).  SPX has been most lucrative for me, followed by XAUXAG, which I traded very badly, and should have been much more profitable than it was, given the relative accuracy of my advance predictors.  Oh, yeah, and GBPJPY was velly, velly good to me as well.  Treasuries did fairly well too.  I may short them again in a week or so.  If I didn't have a day job, I'd probably be quite wealthy at this point.  But I love my day job, so I just can't quit.  I must restrict myself to a few swing trades, as a result.

So to keep it ontopic, what do you think about the halving? Will it have a significant effect on XTC:USD and XBT:XMR?

I have little clue, but it sure isn't going to hurt XBTUSD.  Breaking 270 will be a crucial test.  Last halving was a rocket-sled to bubble-land.  I enjoyed it enough to become really annoying to civilians in the neighborhood.  Last bubble LTC lagged BTC, then was flung past it when the bubble popped.  Do I think XMR will behave like LTC did then?  No strong predictors here, I think.  I consider financial repression to be a better omen for XMR than a BTC bubble, and consider the likelihood of a BTC bubble to be much lower than it was in 2013, when all the stars were aligned, what with Silk Road, the Willy Bot, Cyprus, the halving, and a mining gold-rush all going on at once.  Could happen again, but not likely.  Moreover the structural factors defining the role of LTC relative to BTC in 2013 and those defining the role of XMR relative to BTC in 2015 are very, very different.  I am hopeful, but disinclined to draw a strong analogy.

A bubble run is likely, yes.  I suspect it will be faded pretty heavily, and peter out quickly, due to professionals in the game now.  If so, then it might become a long, slow, sustainable ramp before it blows off a top, if it ever does.  The channel by which that is most likely to aid XMR, in my opinion, is by drawing increased attention to crypto, such that when the failings of BTC become painful, many more users will find XMR to be the most fit alternative for their purposes.  The time required for that machinery to grind to completion is likely to frustrate most XMR speculators, but please most long holders at some almost unknowable point in the future.  It's still the best digital cash technology, and I see no reason for that to change.  To the contrary, as slow as progress has been, still the technology seems to be improving fitness for purpose faster than competitive innovators can catch up.  I guess they each have their own obstacles to progress.  XMR basically only has one:  Funding.

[SmoothCurves]

Fuck it im buying some more XMR. What do you guys think the low is going to be? .0013?

[opennux]

Haven't seen or heard from tacotime in a long time. Is he still active in XMR development?

Someone else and me asked this two months ago as well. He is still active, just less public:

That would apply to quite a few I think and not just in XMR.

People are putting their nose to the grindstone. Those busy with working likely spend (or waste if you may) less time in public forums.

[smooth]

I was just taking a tour around the pools and see that dwarfpool lists their top 20 miners.  4 of the addresses start with Poloniex.com and one with Bittrex.com.  I take it that these are mining directly to the exchanges for selling.

May not necessarily be for immediate selling (though it certainly could be).

Some people just use exchanges as convenient wallets.

Obviously this has downsides and I don't recommend using exchanges as wallets, but we can't deny it is common.

[opennux]

I was just taking a tour around the pools and see that dwarfpool lists their top 20 miners.  4 of the addresses start with Poloniex.com and one with Bittrex.com.  I take it that these are mining directly to the exchanges for selling.

May not necessarily be for immediate selling (though it certainly could be).

Some people just use exchanges as convenient wallets.

Obviously this has downsides and I don't recommend using exchanges as wallets, but we can't deny it is common.

If you can set up mining, you can likely set up your own wallet. Miners are usually technically competent people. We can extrapolate from that. It would likely be a minority of miners only using it as a convenient wallet. It doesn't mean that all what one miner mines is sold. They could sell a large percentage and keep a small one.