[XMR] Monero Speculation

[newb4now]

I believe one monero will be worth approximately 3.7 sheep or 125 chickens within the next 75 lunar cycles

One can speculate on sheeps'n'chickens too, just mentioning. Could be very lucrative.

The comparison to bitcoins suffers from the comparison to bitcoins. People will always point out it compares to the epic bitcoin market crash when price gains, so volume will be near zilch/nada/nuthing at the pike. No buy support, short episode. This past will be haunting.

Or 0.106 Elephants.  

When those are standing around in a room, everybody preferes not to mention

Before "Bitcoin repeats" one would have to make Bitcoin unhappen.

972 chickens

[americanpegasus]

I am asking you guys to explain bitcoin and monero in a humanistic manner while glossing over the mechanics of how it works in order to get more people on board and using bitcoin (and other cryptos like Monero).

 
  
What he's saying might be upsetting to some of the techies in the room, but he's right.  The average person doesn't give a shit about how technically amazing your product is.  Ask the average iPhone owner to describe the differences between the processors of the last few iPhone releases.  They probably can't.  
  
Everyone needs to watch this iPhone 6S commercial, and learn how it's done:  https://youtu.be/aBYWGjIzvyw  
  
How many specs did you hear?  Almost none.  What you did hear was a lot of talk about how iPhone will upgrade your life, capture the moments of your life better, and most importantly: make you more important.  
  
Monero advertising already has the most important thing: an amazing product.  It's the most powerful form of money ever devised, but unless people use it, it's worthless.  The beauty is that there is a powerful incentive to be an early adopter in the form of exponentially rising value... math is literally bending over backwards to accommodate us.  Now all that remains is to let the 7 billion humans on Earth know exactly why Monero will upgrade their life, ease all transactions in their life, and most importantly: make them more important.  And if Monero *can't* do those things?  Then we shouldn't bother, because people won't care.  
  
Do you know why Linux hasn't superseded Windows, despite being a superior product?  Because Linux is not easy, is not necessary for the average customer, and Linux does not inherently make them feel important or carry status with it.  Monero can't afford to be Linux.  You can get on the anti-Apple bandwagon all you want (I'll agree with you in many ways), but their marketing is the fuck on point.  
  
As I go forward, I'll be brainstorming and implementing some ideas to show the average person how Monero will upgrade their lives in every way imaginable.  Now I just need to developers to make it easy to use, and the entrepreneurs to build some compelling services around it.  

[d0om]

I am asking you guys to explain bitcoin and monero in a humanistic manner while glossing over the mechanics of how it works in order to get more people on board and using bitcoin (and other cryptos like Monero).

 
  
What he's saying might be upsetting to some of the techies in the room, but he's right.  The average person doesn't give a shit about how technically amazing your product is.  Ask the average iPhone owner to describe the differences between the processors of the last few iPhone releases.  They probably can't.  
  
Everyone needs to watch this iPhone 6S commercial, and learn how it's done:  https://youtu.be/aBYWGjIzvyw  
  
How many specs did you hear?  Almost none.  What you did hear was a lot of talk about how iPhone will upgrade your life, capture the moments of your life better, and most importantly: make you more important.  
  
Monero advertising already has the most important thing: an amazing product.  It's the most powerful form of money ever devised, but unless people use it, it's worthless.  The beauty is that there is a powerful incentive to be an early adopter in the form of exponentially rising value... math is literally bending over backwards to accommodate us.  Now all that remains is to let the 7 billion humans on Earth know exactly why Monero will upgrade their life, ease all transactions in their life, and most importantly: make them more important.  And if Monero *can't* do those things?  Then we shouldn't bother, because people won't care.  
  
Do you know why Linux hasn't superseded Windows, despite being a superior product?  Because Linux is not easy, is not necessary for the average customer, and Linux does not inherently make them feel important or carry status with it.  Monero can't afford to be Linux.  You can get on the anti-Apple bandwagon all you want (I'll agree with you in many ways), but their marketing is the fuck on point.  
  
As I go forward, I'll be brainstorming and implementing some ideas to show the average person how Monero will upgrade their lives in every way imaginable.  Now I just need to developers to make it easy to use, and the entrepreneurs to build some compelling services around it.  

Ask a random person if they know what Linux is, their response: "What what is?" -- the point being, despite something being so fundamental it sees everyday use by nearly everyone (and they still don't know WHAT it is), it can still be of value. People don't know shit about the technology they use on a day to day basis. You won't have any luck just rampantly exposing some obscure technology through media. You just have to put it to work so that a system uses it, and eventually, relies on it.

[smoothie]

Unless a lot of privacy oriented businesses start accepting XMR, that is.

That should be a primary goal for Monero and other privacy focused coins.

Yeah, but it's not really a matter of a couple of us who are invested into the privacy focused coins to start contacting these businesses and just say "Hey, you need to accept XMR"... I think we need to inform them of what it is and to get them to actually read the documents and white papers that come along with cryptonite currencies. Until they get some kind of motivation to do so; we won't have any say as to how they handle their business.

For privacy oriented services, like for most businesses, are to main motivations:
1. Money
2. Reputation

1. Money

If they see that costumers chose competition over them, because they accept xmr, its enough of a motivation to start considering accepting monero as well.

For this to happen there needs to be enough users being happy to pay/donate for the services with xmr.  

2. Reputation

If some service is serious about protecting users privacy, they should do everything they can do protect this privacy. This includes supporting payment methods that actually protect this privacy.

And for this to happen, limitations of the bitcoin in terms of privacy and anonymity must be more well known. Most ppl think that bitcoin is most private and most anonymous payment method ever developed.

Nice compilation.

This gives a good overview of what many perceive Bitcoin is and what it is not....perception can be very flawed if one does not take a step back and really call Bitcoin for what it is and not what people want it to be.

Did you edit out your post with all of those quotes?

Now I don't see them.

[smoothie]

I am asking you guys to explain bitcoin and monero in a humanistic manner while glossing over the mechanics of how it works in order to get more people on board and using bitcoin (and other cryptos like Monero).

 
  
What he's saying might be upsetting to some of the techies in the room, but he's right.  The average person doesn't give a shit about how technically amazing your product is.  Ask the average iPhone owner to describe the differences between the processors of the last few iPhone releases.  They probably can't.  
  
Everyone needs to watch this iPhone 6S commercial, and learn how it's done:  https://youtu.be/aBYWGjIzvyw  
  
How many specs did you hear?  Almost none.  What you did hear was a lot of talk about how iPhone will upgrade your life, capture the moments of your life better, and most importantly: make you more important.  
  
Monero advertising already has the most important thing: an amazing product.  It's the most powerful form of money ever devised, but unless people use it, it's worthless.  The beauty is that there is a powerful incentive to be an early adopter in the form of exponentially rising value... math is literally bending over backwards to accommodate us.  Now all that remains is to let the 7 billion humans on Earth know exactly why Monero will upgrade their life, ease all transactions in their life, and most importantly: make them more important.  And if Monero *can't* do those things?  Then we shouldn't bother, because people won't care.  
  
Do you know why Linux hasn't superseded Windows, despite being a superior product?  Because Linux is not easy, is not necessary for the average customer, and Linux does not inherently make them feel important or carry status with it.  Monero can't afford to be Linux.  You can get on the anti-Apple bandwagon all you want (I'll agree with you in many ways), but their marketing is the fuck on point.  
  
As I go forward, I'll be brainstorming and implementing some ideas to show the average person how Monero will upgrade their lives in every way imaginable.  Now I just need to developers to make it easy to use, and the entrepreneurs to build some compelling services around it.  

This is a very good perspective to take as a medium/long term view.

Right now it is difficult to convince anyone to care about using the technology underlying monero as the infrastructure is still being built.

At this point getting people who are tech savvy to help bridge the gap between techies and the average joe is what is essential in making what you are saying become a reality.

[owm123]

Unless a lot of privacy oriented businesses start accepting XMR, that is.

That should be a primary goal for Monero and other privacy focused coins.

Yeah, but it's not really a matter of a couple of us who are invested into the privacy focused coins to start contacting these businesses and just say "Hey, you need to accept XMR"... I think we need to inform them of what it is and to get them to actually read the documents and white papers that come along with cryptonite currencies. Until they get some kind of motivation to do so; we won't have any say as to how they handle their business.

For privacy oriented services, like for most businesses, are to main motivations:
1. Money
2. Reputation

1. Money

If they see that costumers chose competition over them, because they accept xmr, its enough of a motivation to start considering accepting monero as well.

For this to happen there needs to be enough users being happy to pay/donate for the services with xmr.  

2. Reputation

If some service is serious about protecting users privacy, they should do everything they can do protect this privacy. This includes supporting payment methods that actually protect this privacy.

And for this to happen, limitations of the bitcoin in terms of privacy and anonymity must be more well known. Most ppl think that bitcoin is most private and most anonymous payment method ever developed.

Nice compilation.

This gives a good overview of what many perceive Bitcoin is and what it is not....perception can be very flawed if one does not take a step back and really call Bitcoin for what it is and not what people want it to be.

Did you edit out your post with all of those quotes?

Now I don't see them.

Yes, I removed them, as I wanted to put them into one place:
http://txti.es/2015-vpn-providers-and-paying-using-bitcoin

[Harpua]

 
  
Do you know why Linux hasn't superseded Windows, despite being a superior product?  Because Linux is not easy, is not necessary for the average customer, and Linux does not inherently make them feel important or carry status with it.  Monero can't afford to be Linux.  You can get on the anti-Apple bandwagon all you want (I'll agree with you in many ways), but their marketing is the fuck on point.  

Unfortunately though, I think a majority of people who are ever going to want to carry Monero is going to be either Computer geeks, investors, or people paranoid about their government.  I'm the last two, but I agree.. it's all about marketing; and I think you can do a lot for XMR in the marketing field.  But we really need to "Apple-ize" Monero.

[dEBRUYNE]

Regarding last 2 medium sized dumps (~6k & ~5k), it's someone shorting again:



Left column is the aggregate offers, center column is the aggregate demand and right column the weighted average interest rate.

Take a look yourself -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

[Ratatosk]

Do you know why Linux hasn't superseded Windows, despite being a superior product?  Because Linux is not easy, is not necessary for the average customer, and Linux does not inherently make them feel important or carry status with it.  Monero can't afford to be Linux.  You can get on the anti-Apple bandwagon all you want (I'll agree with you in many ways), but their marketing is the fuck on point.  
  

I agree...

But the most important thing for a coin to succeed and to be adopted by all users and shops (on internet or real street store), is at first : to have a complete payment confirmation in less than 10 seconds, ideally 5. Until any coin includes this function, it's useless to speculate on it, because it will not be used in common all day payments tasks. That should be the first priority task for Monero devs (easy to say for me, I know, but I can barely understand and change some parameters in PHP or HTML code of a Wordpress install, so you see my level).

And you're right, Apple is evil shit and Jobs was one of the last public Nazi hero adored by a huge group of blind fanatic people in a world-class sect. Whatever, back to Monero...

Yes communication/marketing is very important. About this, Monero website should really do as https://bitcoin.org/en/choose-your-wallet page : teach clearly the people that there are Monero GUI wallets, even if not created by the team. Like Bitcoin : the most used wallets are not the "official one". You should really make that appear on website, plus updating the outdated links driving to the homepage of the GUI wallets.
http://monero.org/downloads/
https://getmonero.org/downloads/
and improve the design of
https://getmonero.org/home
https://getmonero.org/getting-started/choose
in sections Web wallet, Desktop wallets and Non GUI wallet...
I think Monero team dosn't need to create a GUI wallet, if there are good ones from outside...

But sadly, as with the VHS/Betamax case, or Windows/Linux analogy, it's not always the best technology that's chosen and adopted by the world... So, informing and educating people about the Monero product, in a simple and clear way, is also a priority, before speculation... See the "success" of Dash, even if far less good than Monero... Or even Shadowcash... whatever the real objectives behind these projects are...

[mrkavasaki]

get ready for coins below 0.001!!

[chennan]

get ready for coins below 0.001!!

Why so sad? This is the investment stage, going below .001 will make it all the more cheap to get good quality Monero in your wallet...

[stealth923]

[funnyman21]

Regarding last 2 medium sized dumps (~6k & ~5k), it's someone shorting again:



Left column is the aggregate offers, center column is the aggregate demand and right column the weighted average interest rate.

Take a look yourself -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

Shorting here is very dangerous. Chances of short squeeze are very real. Prices seem low to me already.

[leipebarry]

I already did, I see no innovation at all.
Just sold 1/3 of my Monero, made a profit and bought into Digibyte.
If it goes on like this I will sell everything.

[dEBRUYNE]

Regarding last 2 medium sized dumps (~6k & ~5k), it's someone shorting again:



Left column is the aggregate offers, center column is the aggregate demand and right column the weighted average interest rate.

Take a look yourself -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

It seems that someone is really eager to short, because demand is spiking now as well. Someone wants to borrow (demands) ~8k+ XMR at a rate of 2% per day. Even though the rate is high, I would advise no one to put his XMR up for offer, because it could really hurt the market.

[pa]

Regarding last 2 medium sized dumps (~6k & ~5k), it's someone shorting again:



Left column is the aggregate offers, center column is the aggregate demand and right column the weighted average interest rate.

Take a look yourself -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

It seems that someone is really eager to short, because demand is spiking now as well. Someone wants to borrow (demands) ~8k+ XMR at a rate of 2% per day. Even though the rate is high, I would advise no one to put his XMR up for offer, because it could really hurt the market.

It won't cause lasting harm. It'll give those of us who see the value in the project a better entry point or another opportunity to accumulate.

[dEBRUYNE]

Regarding last 2 medium sized dumps (~6k & ~5k), it's someone shorting again:



Left column is the aggregate offers, center column is the aggregate demand and right column the weighted average interest rate.

Take a look yourself -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

It seems that someone is really eager to short, because demand is spiking now as well. Someone wants to borrow (demands) ~8k+ XMR at a rate of 2% per day. Even though the rate is high, I would advise no one to put his XMR up for offer, because it could really hurt the market.

UPDATE: Another 12-13k was taken out to borrow and was subsequently added to the asks. There is now ~25k until 0.0016, from which approximately 90% are from the shorting entity, so that's ~22.5k (note that he also took out some XMR after the dump). Furthermore, he already dumped ~11k and perhaps even more before that. So I am guessing his current short position is around 35k, perhaps even more. A bold move with these current prices if you ask me.

P.S. Bear in mind he has to buy this back at some point and if I recall correctly most of the offers were for a short duration. Thus, he most likely has to return most of the 35k XMR within the next 2 days (meaning he has to buy it back on the market within the next 2 days).

[aminorex]

it could really hurt the market.

Conceivably.  But it seems more likely to consolidate support. Taking 8k 35k xmr from stupid hands and putting them into stronger hands isn't such a bad thing!

xmr is, in part, like a put option on central planning (which at this point includes btc) and prices accordingly.  When confidence in our overlords is increasing, it should suffer. When confidence declines,  it should benefit, and disproportionately so, as such fluctuations tend to be tail events.  

I suspect (on the basis that usd correlation appears higher than btc correlation, and that the principal egress point is a u.s. exchange) that u.s. persons are largely defining price,  and u.s. confidence in central planning seems high and mostly rising, albeit with many spreading marginal pockets of un-confidence.

I am gradually reducing my spx long, as it is getting technically overbought again as we near 2040 (76 retrace from the start of the august drop), and timing models (monkey) favor an inflection this week, but there are a number of important earnings releases this week which have the potential to precipitate further short squeezing (nflx, bx, bac, jpm, ge).  Depending on how those play out,  the technical situation could change markedly, favoring another leg up before the major inflection.  What I assuredly do not expect is extended sideways motion.  

I mention this because spx is partly u.s. confidence, and an inflection in u.s. confidence implies inflection in the significant component of xmr price which is derived from its use as a confidence put.  Expect xmr therefore, to respond inversely to spx.  Emerging and spain seem likely to drop soonish.  Spus still have hope to leg up. (Although I am still skeptical of that hope , my bearish expectations become more confident the further out on the calendar we go.)

Longer term, I don't think we have seen the energy and resource bottom,  u.s. housing is topping out again, industrial channels are fully stuffed, spreads are still way tight, China hasn't bottomed, Europe still hasn't delevered it's banks, Japan is a wreck, Brazil is a wreck, Thailand has a military government, sovereign funds are inflecting, u.s. gdp growth is de minimis...not to mention a dozen other major hotspots slamming into a wall of instability...and does anybody really believe more QE can be of meaningful benefit any longer?  I like confidence puts at these prices.

[dEBRUYNE]

Regarding last 2 medium sized dumps (~6k & ~5k), it's someone shorting again:



Left column is the aggregate offers, center column is the aggregate demand and right column the weighted average interest rate.

Take a look yourself -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

It seems that someone is really eager to short, because demand is spiking now as well. Someone wants to borrow (demands) ~8k+ XMR at a rate of 2% per day. Even though the rate is high, I would advise no one to put his XMR up for offer, because it could really hurt the market.

UPDATE: Another 12-13k was taken out to borrow and was subsequently added to the asks. There is now ~25k until 0.0016, from which approximately 90% are from the shorting entity, so that's ~22.5k (note that he also took out some XMR after the dump). Furthermore, he already dumped ~11k and perhaps even more before that. So I am guessing his current short position is around 35k, perhaps even more. A bold move with these current prices if you ask me.

P.S. Bear in mind he has to buy this back at some point and if I recall correctly most of the offers were for a short duration. Thus, he most likely has to return most of the 35k XMR within the next 2 days (meaning he has to buy it back on the market within the next 2 days).

UPDATE2: ~22k was taken away from the asks, wonder if he is going to return or dump them. Time will tell I guess.

UPDATE3: Looking at the lending market, he is returning most of the asks he pulled out (he also removed his ~5k demand). Bear in mind that he still has to buy back the ~11k he dumped onto the market.

[dEBRUYNE]

it could really hurt the market.

Conceivably.  But it seems more likely to consolidate support. Taking 8k 35k xmr from stupid hands and putting them into stronger hands isn't such a bad thing!

I suspect (on the basis that usd correlation appears higher than btc correlation, and that the principal egress point is a u.s. exchange) that u.s. persons are largely defining price,  and u.s. confidence in central planning seems high and mostly rising, albeit with many spreading marginal pockets of un-confidence.

In my opinion, the recent spike in 3 month t-bills (hitting par, thus 0% yield) confirms the current u.s. confidence in central planning. However, it could well be that we are nearing the top regarding this.