[XMR] Monero Speculation

[OrientA]

I don't think a smart enough AI will find use in cryptocurrencies, maybe in the blockchain technology, if we can't get humans to use it directly the field is doomed because I foresee a process of fiatization with 3rd-parties and intermediate services that will keep us in the current status-quo but with a kwel blockchain at the heart, specialized AIs will eventually take control of several trading markets it should still have humans in control or as primary beneficiaries. I also don't think Bitcoin (or any crypto) is a new Internet, I don't see future in smart contracts, and any coin with POS is DOA. Monero is pretty much state-of-art, growing but few people using it. I see that the devs will keep going no matter what as they are committed with this project, Monero time will come, its eternal disinflationary emission will make sure it will stay economically viable even if the price doesn't breaks $1 for a long time - but this is the worst-case scenario because I doubt I'll still be seeing XMR bellow $1 in 2022 unless something happened.

The biggest impact I see AI having on crypto is blockchain analysis, which might accelerate the movement of people from BTC to XMR in order to protect their privacy.

pseudo anonymous: bitcoin
anonymous: Monero

[owm123]

The biggest impact I see AI having on crypto is blockchain analysis, which might accelerate the movement of people from BTC to XMR in order to protect their privacy.

pseudo anonymous: bitcoin
anonymous: Monero

But the problem is that not everyone knows that Bitcoin is only pseudo anonymous.
http://txti.es/2015-vpn-providers-and-paying-using-bitcoin

[dEBRUYNE]

FWIW: Offers decreased from ~37k last night to ~10k today, might explain all the mini walls around 0.0016. In other words, someone could be protecting his short position. Alternative explanation, the offerer just took away a chunk of his offers.

Almost all altcoins are taking a pretty big hit in the last few weeks, saddens me to see it slide like this. Resembles the August-Januari bearmarket a bit.

[smoothie]

The biggest impact I see AI having on crypto is blockchain analysis, which might accelerate the movement of people from BTC to XMR in order to protect their privacy.

pseudo anonymous: bitcoin
anonymous: Monero

But the problem is that not everyone knows that Bitcoin is only pseudo anonymous.
http://txti.es/2015-vpn-providers-and-paying-using-bitcoin

It is a mental barrier. Humans take a while to figure out why things are important.

I remember using the internet in 1994 and most everyone I knew didn't really know what the internet was or why it was important.

Fast forward 21 years and everyone is using it pretty much and sees the importance of it.

People can be slow to adopt things.

I am just thankful I am aware of this technology when it is in its infancy.

[americanpegasus]

Yes, it is a disappointing slide in price, but you either believe that the world gives up on the most advanced money it has ever seen - or only one thing can happen.  
  
We are in the first valley of adoption where the technology exists and now there is just a race to make it user friendly and create more use-cases for it.  
  
Myself?  I too feel fatigued by the slow decline of Monero price, and frustratedly eye all the rallys (pumps) the other coins are having so I know exactly what that means: buy Monero.  Your emotions are about the best reverse indicators of how to make money.  When you are depressed and frustrated with the price action of an asset, that is the time of best opportunity.  (Remember that no one knows the bottom, and the bottom never feels like the bottom; when bitcoin was flirting with $210 earlier this year and I bought the bulk of my coins it felt like there was a lot further that we could fall). When you are exuberant, that is the time for a reality check.  No one ever knows the peak either, and it always seems like there's so much more to go.
  
I'll be adding modest chunks to my position over the next 30 to 60 days, just as soon as some checks clear.  

[RAJSALLIN]

Yes, it is a disappointing slide in price, but you either believe that the world gives up on the most advanced money it has ever seen - or only one thing can happen.  
  
We are in the first valley of adoption where the technology exists and now there is just a race to make it user friendly and create more use-cases for it.  
  
Myself?  I too feel fatigued by the slow decline of Monero price, and frustratedly eye all the rallys (pumps) the other coins are having so I know exactly what that means: buy Monero.  Your emotions are about the best reverse indicators of how to make money.  When you are depressed and frustrated with the price action of an asset, that is the time of best opportunity.  (Remember that no one knows the bottom, and the bottom never feels like the bottom; when bitcoin was flirting with $210 earlier this year and I bought the bulk of my coins it felt like there was a lot further that we could fall). When you are exuberant, that is the time for a reality check.  No one ever knows the peak either, and it always seems like there's so much more to go.
  
I'll be adding modest chunks to my position over the next 30 to 60 days, just as soon as some checks clear.  

Think it's important to add that one shouldn't get married to ones investments. Seriously feels like a lot of people here have a pretty solid marriage to xmr. Also trying to catch a falling knife is usually not the best investment strategy.

Yes xmr may be the best money the world has seen but the risk of total ruin is still extreme. Invest accordingly.

[americanpegasus]

Think it's important to add that one shouldn't get married to ones investments. Seriously feels like a lot of people here have a pretty solid marriage to xmr. Also trying to catch a falling knife is usually not the best investment strategy.

Yes xmr may be the best money the world has seen but the risk of total ruin is still extreme. Invest accordingly.

 
  
That's true.  If your goal is pure profit, you must be willing to forgo principals for the sure win.  But me, I decided a while back that I wasn't going to play the greater fool theory anymore.  My investments will carry actual merit.  No more buying something just because it's popular.  
  
For example, if you look at the recent volume on Poloniex it's obvious that this Digibyte thing is about to undergo a pump.  But what are you buying?  Flash and the hope that you can see to the greater fool.  When you buy Monero you are buying the predominant ledger of the best cryptocurrency in the world.  It's so good that we're not sure if there's a way to even mathematically make a better one without making it *too* anonymous.  
  
So as I said in my Halloween videos, it doesn't matter what the price is in the short term.  20 cents, 30 cents, 40 cents.  90 cents.  We are talking about an asset that is either worth zero, or a titanic amount.  And if it fights the good fight and establishes itself, it will be damned hard to unseat (just as we are seeing with bitcoin currently).  
  
This is an internet archive page of /r/bitcoin right after it had it's first spike to $100: https://web.archive.org/web/20130402064144/http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin  
  
I think most succinct is this picture: http://imgur.com/FBt8M7X  
  
I'm not going to be that cat.  
  
I'd rather say, "Yeah, it was the best money our species has ever seen, so of course I bought a lot of it." even if it doesn't pan out as an investment. (though I don't see it going down like that)

[rpietila]

Some investments have a reinforcing merit loop - when price goes up/down, the fundamentals of the investment get better/worse as a result.

Cryptocurrencies do have this, to a great extent.


Also some investments have a reinforcing fold loop - when price goes up/down, the propensity of the investment folding totally decrease/increase.

Here one must exercise wisdom:

- If the company in question is dependent on financing, for instance, its stock price crashing may easily prevent both equity and debt financing, resulting in bankruptcy (and win for the vultures).

- XMR is not a stock and does not have costs nor debt which need to be serviced. It can hardly be destroyed merely by crashing its exchange rate. Both XMR and BTC prices have already been decimated to 1/10 of their prior peak levels, both are still alive. Both borrowing and lending for short selling is quite a risky proposition if the ultimate goal - destroying the asset - is not achievable.

[onemorexmr]

Some investments have a reinforcing merit loop - when price goes up/down, the fundamentals of the investment get better/worse as a result.

Cryptocurrencies do have this, to a great extent.


Also some investments have a reinforcing fold loop - when price goes up/down, the propensity of the investment folding totally decrease/increase.

Here one must exercise wisdom:

- If the company in question is dependent on financing, for instance, its stock price crashing may easily prevent both equity and debt financing, resulting in bankruptcy (and win for the vultures).

- XMR is not a stock and does not have costs nor debt which need to be serviced. It can hardly be destroyed merely by crashing its exchange rate. Both XMR and BTC prices have already been decimated to 1/10 of their prior peak levels, both are still alive. Both borrowing and lending for short selling is quite a risky proposition if the ultimate goal - destroying the asset - is not achievable.

Not sure if thats true for Bitcoin, because of Mining. If the price crashes to low (and stays there for a longer period) miners will leave which in return means that transaction takes longer to confirm - bitcoin doesnt adopt to huge(!) hashrate-swings fast (this is even worsen through the fact that less blocks are found).

This raises the risk for doublespents (or similar attacks eg timewarping) as old mining equipment would be cheaper to buy. if someone acquires to much he could attack. (Monero mitigates that risk by using a GPU/CPU algo which shouldnt be much better on an ASIC)

[kennyP]

I had to come back to post something very important. Seems Monero is attempting to duplicate my invention. I will be posting this on the Ion thread as well.

The brand new Ring Confidential Transactions for Monero appears to me to be broken:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3oi16k/ring_ct_for_monero_a_work_in_progress_comments/cvzval5



P.S. my health is not going well. I am pretty much giving on trying any therapies (because nothing works and I've tried "everything") until and if ever I can afford the best research specialists doing diagnostics on me. So don't expect too much from me. But I am still trying. I did run 9 kilometers in the past 2 days but today was a total Chronic Fatigue day bed ridden.

Oh I am still retired from this forum. The above required my posting.

Is it time to draft anonymint into the xmr dev team as a consultant? Can someone explain what this is about?

[GingerAle]

Some investments have a reinforcing merit loop - when price goes up/down, the fundamentals of the investment get better/worse as a result.

Cryptocurrencies do have this, to a great extent.


Also some investments have a reinforcing fold loop - when price goes up/down, the propensity of the investment folding totally decrease/increase.

Here one must exercise wisdom:

- If the company in question is dependent on financing, for instance, its stock price crashing may easily prevent both equity and debt financing, resulting in bankruptcy (and win for the vultures).

- XMR is not a stock and does not have costs nor debt which need to be serviced. It can hardly be destroyed merely by crashing its exchange rate. Both XMR and BTC prices have already been decimated to 1/10 of their prior peak levels, both are still alive. Both borrowing and lending for short selling is quite a risky proposition if the ultimate goal - destroying the asset - is not achievable.

Not sure if thats true for Bitcoin, because of Mining. If the price crashes to low (and stays there for a longer period) miners will leave which in return means that transaction takes longer to confirm - bitcoin doesnt adopt to huge(!) hashrate-swings fast (this is even worsen through the fact that less blocks are found).

This raises the risk for doublespents (or similar attacks eg timewarping) as old mining equipment would be cheaper to buy. if someone acquires to much he could attack. (Monero mitigates that risk by using a GPU/CPU algo which shouldnt be much better on an ASIC)

Interesting point. I speculate that if Monero is running full speed (basically 0.9 release  + we quash this GUI meme somehow), that we could see a large influx during the next halving. People will see bitcoin falter with superlong confirmation times and observe that monero really is bitcoin 2.0

[americanpegasus]

I had to come back to post something very important. Seems Monero is attempting to duplicate my invention. I will be posting this on the Ion thread as well.

The brand new Ring Confidential Transactions for Monero appears to me to be broken:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3oi16k/ring_ct_for_monero_a_work_in_progress_comments/cvzval5



P.S. my health is not going well. I am pretty much giving on trying any therapies (because nothing works and I've tried "everything") until and if ever I can afford the best research specialists doing diagnostics on me. So don't expect too much from me. But I am still trying. I did run 9 kilometers in the past 2 days but today was a total Chronic Fatigue day bed ridden.

Oh I am still retired from this forum. The above required my posting.

Is it time to draft anonymint into the xmr dev team as a consultant? Can someone explain what this is about?

 
 
It seems to me that was the most important topic posted in /r/Monero for a long time.  Do you guys think it should be stickied for a little while?  (like maybe a week or so)

[GingerAle]

I had to come back to post something very important. Seems Monero is attempting to duplicate my invention. I will be posting this on the Ion thread as well.

The brand new Ring Confidential Transactions for Monero appears to me to be broken:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3oi16k/ring_ct_for_monero_a_work_in_progress_comments/cvzval5



P.S. my health is not going well. I am pretty much giving on trying any therapies (because nothing works and I've tried "everything") until and if ever I can afford the best research specialists doing diagnostics on me. So don't expect too much from me. But I am still trying. I did run 9 kilometers in the past 2 days but today was a total Chronic Fatigue day bed ridden.

Oh I am still retired from this forum. The above required my posting.

Is it time to draft anonymint into the xmr dev team as a consultant? Can someone explain what this is about?

 
 
It seems to me that was the most important topic posted in /r/Monero for a long time.  Do you guys think it should be stickied for a little while?  (like maybe a week or so)

oh yeah, your a mod. do it!

[americanpegasus]

oh yeah, your a mod. do it!

 
 
Ok, done.  Also, I'm calling it now: Bernie Sanders just did a dance on the Ellen show.  We are going to need a Ron Paul, "it's happening" style gif of Bernie for the inevitable Monero super-rise: 
https://twitter.com/TheEllenShow/status/654462348137070592
 

[cryptonewb]

oh yeah, your a mod. do it!

 
  
Ok, done.  Also, I'm calling it now: Bernie Sanders just did a dance on the Ellen show.  We are going to need a Ron Paul, "it's happening" style gif of Bernie for the inevitable Monero super-rise:  
https://twitter.com/TheEllenShow/status/654462348137070592
  
https://i.imgur.com/7drHiqr.gif

https://i.gyazo.com/109cf4c324db16ba33bcfa626c40e616.gif

[Abiky]

Monero is just in its baby steps. Let one or two year pass and you'll see a real change in price and demand for it. I think that when the GUI gets released, that will be the day when Monero will truly expand. It will definitely attract the attention of most beginners (non tech savy people) out there. Then they would want to invest in Monero due to its privacy features. Just my opinion. 

[americanpegasus]

 
 
It's a great start, thank you  , but we eventually need it shooped onto a flashing rainbow background with the words IT'S HAPPENING.

[chennan]

 
 
It's a great start, thank you  , but we eventually need it shooped onto a flashing rainbow background with the words IT'S HAPPENING.

Why would you want Bernie Sanders to be at the forefront of Monero? Bernie isn't at all the poster child for this, because it would be against the Feds and private banks, which I would believe, that he is good with... Plus he's socialist, I thought the majority of XMR folks here were libertarians... spying and analysing your data is going to be his specialty.

[cAPSLOCK]

Why would you want Bernie Sanders to be at the forefront of Monero? Bernie isn't at all the poster child for this, because it would be against the Feds and private banks, which I would believe, that he is good with... Plus he's socialist, I thought the majority of XMR folks here were libertarians... spying and analysing your data is going to be his specialty.

Beat me to it.  I was also going to say while Paul is sympathetic to Bitcoin, and would likely approve of Monero even more, Sanders would hate both as they would fundamentally attack his entire worldview.

Thing is they fundamentally attack the worldview of almost ALL politicians except for kooks (sic) like Paul.

It's actually an interesting point from a speculation vantage.  One that comes up a lot... but is worth continuing to consider.  Governments do not like Bitcoin.  And they will HATE Monero.

[americanpegasus]

It seems he is the most privacy oriented candidate out there.  He recently said he would "absolutely end NSA spying" and he was one of the few to vote against the Patriot Act.  
  
http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/256865-sanders-would-absolutely-end-nsa-spying  
    
I don't know his relationship with the Federal Reserve, nor have I heard his stance on cryptocurrency.  But I definitely think he would make a more friendly candidate for the rise of cryptocurrency (which will likely happen in earnest from 2016 -  2020) vs. anyone else who has an actual chance of being elected.